Illinois Yankee in the Showa Emperor's Court (Q-Ball v Canoe)

[erstad]

That means that occasionally the citizens will riot and trash the industry;

Nope, removed in a patch. They can damage the airfield/port, destroy supply, block supply movement, and cause a small loss in VPs, but industry should be OK.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: erstad

That means that occasionally the citizens will riot and trash the industry;

Nope, removed in a patch. They can damage the airfield/port, destroy supply, block supply movement, and cause a small loss in VPs, but industry should be OK.

Block supply movement - that's a nice touch.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

There is no obvious all-in knockout blow for the Empire. Pushing out into the Pacific is not appealing. Not sure what it cost me not going "all-in" at the beginning, because crossing the line of death and failing is worse than just taking 1/2 of India.

So, I don't regret going Ceylon first. Sure, it cost time, but netted returns in lost Allied troops, as well as much better protection for my supply lines to India. Ceylon is a real problem to an India conquest in allied hands.

I agree you needed to take Ceylon, for the loss of the shipyard to the Allies if nothing else.

A question re going for the whole banana. I have not attempted to do any math.

The "line of death" reenforcements are substantial, but are they that useful IF the Allies have low/no supply? By the time you trigger them, you would have the majority of the organic Indian supply generators in your grasp. If you use your naval superiority, Bombay can be interdicted pretty safely. That really leaves sneaking supply and fuel in through Karachi. Aden/Abadan only have slight organic supply generation, and Aden is closed to the Med. Supply from the south/Oz is a non-starter if you hold Ceylon, leaving CT-to-Karachi, a gauntlet to run if ever there was.

If you trigger the reenforcements, can you get north on the Bombay coast fast enough, while blockading the Mideast exit, to seige and take Karachi while his supply levels are low? After doing so, can you quickly get to Forts 3 there, making an unstaged amphib landing direct from Aden his only option in the medium term? That might be enough to hold to 1/43 and the auto-vic.

I know you want to move your carriers to the Pac and cause disruption and havoc, and holding them so far north grates. But I'm a bit with Nemo here--all-in or why try? You isolate Burma from the rest of the war at a cost of ten divisions and ignoring the rest of the theater? I don't see how that even gets you through 1943, let alone 1944, if he decides to try a DEI move, or a classic Mid-Pac.

I'm reading both AARs, but the above does not reveal anything CR is planning or has revealed. I'm just asking the question. Is the line of death really that dangerous if you've already crippled his supply mechanics?

[Chickenboy]

I'm with Q-ball on this one and I think he summarized it well-half of India (plus Ceylon) is better than going for broke and losing. He's destroyed LCUs and built a major buffer-the midwar Burma and Sumatra Allied counteroffensive is off the table.

Provided that Q-ball is tending to his defenses (and he is), CR is in no position at this early juncture of the game to launch any sustainable offensive that is meaningful. By the time mid-1943 rolls around, India will have been decided one way or the other and Q-ball's Centpac defenses will be substantial and in depth. A DEI thrust as the Allies is much more difficult without the cloudcuckooland trail supply movement found in previous iterations of the game. Darwin is much less palatable as an Allied offensive springboard now.

There will be a sizeable delay between CR's defense of India and his prospects for mounting an offensive across the subcontinent. At the end of the day, Q-ball may not hold everything that he holds at his apex, but he can begin to fall back to defensive positions in a useful manner.

This was my suggestion in India-consider what may be useful to the IJ *IF* you didn't get Auto-victory. Maximize *THAT* and the effort may still be a worthwhile endeavor.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I'm with Q-ball on this one and I think he summarized it well-half of India (plus Ceylon) is better than going for broke and losing. He's destroyed LCUs and built a major buffer-the midwar Burma and Sumatra Allied counteroffensive is off the table.

Provided that Q-ball is tending to his defenses (and he is), CR is in no position at this early juncture of the game to launch any sustainable offensive that is meaningful. By the time mid-1943 rolls around, India will have been decided one way or the other and Q-ball's Centpac defenses will be substantial and in depth. A DEI thrust as the Allies is much more difficult without the cloudcuckooland trail supply movement found in previous iterations of the game. Darwin is much less palatable as an Allied offensive springboard now.

There will be a sizeable delay between CR's defense of India and his prospects for mounting an offensive across the subcontinent. At the end of the day, Q-ball may not hold everything that he holds at his apex, but he can begin to fall back to defensive positions in a useful manner.

This was my suggestion in India-consider what may be useful to the IJ *IF* you didn't get Auto-victory. Maximize *THAT* and the effort may still be a worthwhile endeavor.

I agree that the HI uptick in particular is useful fro the Japanese. However, I'm not sure it's worth the logistic overhead it's going to take him to artfully withdraw from India the massive forces he's now got deployed there. Ten+ divisions and the better part of a year, especially when he didn't finish the PI yet, is a lot of sealift investment for clocking 3-6 Commonwealth/British divisions, and not crippling the RN to boot.

I also wonder if he hasn't gotten too "land focused" and forgotten the big naval advantages he has in the IO theater now, and the strategic mobility that provides. There's no reason he has to slog across central India with his main body once Madras and Calcutta are his. He can choose. CR has chosen to cede the naval game to him wholesale here, and instead Q is withdrawing the navy and making this a land war.

Darwin: I agree that the patches have made overland supply all but impossible, but by mid-1943 CR will have naval and air forces enough to make a Darwin sea build-up invulnerable. He has practice hopscotching in the DEI from his game with Miller. It's hard to counter.

My suggestion that Q. "go for it" is somewhat based on the all-Allied-player (which I am and so is CR) mindset that supply just happens. There isn't the normal Japanese player's habit of looking at industry, raw matl, etc. all of the time. The Japanese player guards supplies and thinks about them. The Allied player has supply to burn, and that makes for bad habits when in a strategic closet as India is if Madras and Calcutta are in Japanese hands, and the naval balance is all Japan's as well. Indian LCUs may fight like crap, but they still burn through supply doing it, and I'm not sure CR, or many Allied players, is really thinking through logistics in India if the ports are blockaded.

As for the long war, stopping up a British counter through Burma is nice, but not decisive. The USN/USA/USMC are decisive. The only way to stop them dead is to end the game before they get good.

[TheLoneGunman_MatrixForum]

Would it be "gamey" to leave some of those Indian cities in Allied hands and simply let the uprisings in them take a toll on Allied VP and PP (do they lose PP for uprisings?)?

If you can't take the whole thing, make him pay for abandoning the sections he's going to need to hit you back eventually.

If PP is lost as well, you're effectively crippling his ability to transfer units elsewhere.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: TheLoneGunman

Would it be "gamey" to leave some of those Indian cities in Allied hands and simply let the uprisings in them take a toll on Allied VP and PP (do they lose PP for uprisings?)?

If you can't take the whole thing, make him pay for abandoning the sections he's going to need to hit you back eventually.

If PP is lost as well, you're effectively crippling his ability to transfer units elsewhere.

No PP loss I'm aware of. VP loss goes to whomever owns the base and has insufficient garrison. Erstad above in the thread describes those potential losses. However, most of the garrison requirements outside the metropolises are very modest, and can be met with a split unit, police units, arty, cooks and band memebrs, etc. The VP losses, when they happen, are also very modest, 1-2 points and not every day.

[Mynok]

Does he really even have to worry about a total withdrawal? From southern India and Ceylon probably, but eastern India is very defensible.

The divisions are mostly useless in the Pacific. Helpful in the DEI but that is a much more difficult route to go now, and it will take a while to build up forces sufficient to prosecute a DEI offensive from Darwin. The Japanese get plenty of more troops that can be directed to the DEI if that threat seems to be building.

[John 3rd]

Agree with Mynok's thoughts...

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Mynok


Does he really even have to worry about a total withdrawal? From southern India and Ceylon probably, but eastern India is very defensible.

The divisions are mostly useless in the Pacific. Helpful in the DEI but that is a much more difficult route to go now, and it will take a while to build up forces sufficient to prosecute a DEI offensive from Darwin. The Japanese get plenty of more troops that can be directed to the DEI if that threat seems to be building.

I'm certainly no Japanese play expert, never having done so. I agree that division-sized units are not useful on any but the largest islands (Marianas in particular.)

I disagree that Darwin is hard to build once north-facing security can be assured. By mid-1943 100-ship convoys from the WC are easily doable. They can be safely routed to Sydney, broken up into port-sized chunks, and fed into Darwin weekly. Once the Liberty-ship program cranks up, the Allies are floating in xAKs. Q is not attriting merchants now to any extent either. Overland to Darwin is a smokecreen IMO. Darwin can be built up rapidly once air strikes from Timor and carrier raids are a low-return activity for the Japanese. Will CR go to the DEI again? I have no idea.

On withdrawing to Chittagong/CB/Akyab, again, yes, it can be done, but if that is the strategy I'd withdraw deeper into Burma (major supply disadvantages for any attacker) rather than claim the few VPs forward defense offers.

But that still ignores the central issue of Why India? Destroying some LCUs isn't enough to make the Japanese player throw a whole year's worth of thrust away, at the cost of a substantial portion of Japanese sealift that could otherwise be carting resources and fuel home. India is very hard to do, and to my knowledge no one has yet. To me, it's a game, and worth a risk of loss to live on the edge, and push. Yet another grinding campaign a la history is boring. I think Q has a window of several more months where he could put CR to the test. Maybe he loses. So, start another game. But maybe it works too, and teaches Allied players not to sneer at the threat, and play hide&seek with their own navy. The best time to try a strategy is when "everybody knows" it can't be done. Cue Hannibal and the 'phants.

I'm telling you, I don't think CR has given two seconds thought to supply lines. Railroads, yes. Terrain, yes. Commanders, yes. Plane pools, oh, yes. But Indian supply just happens. It's not a housekeeping item. Before he knows he's in trouble he'll have lost his two big generators at Madras and Calcutta, and Aden could be isolated. At minimum it would cause a scramble with far more destructive possibilities than sieging every hamlet from Calcutta to Bombay.

[Q-Ball]

This is a good debate, and Bullwinkle does make some good point. A few thoughts:

1. The total Light Industry beyond the Trigger Line in India is exactly 500; not enough to launch offensive operations, but enough to keep 10 divisions from dropping dead of hunger. This assumes I keep KB posted without interruption for several months off Karachi. No, starving them out is impossible.

I have observed supply convoys transiting to Karachi, so pretty sure he's shipped some in already, while I had KB in the Bay of Bengal covering those landings.

2. Can I conquer the place? It may be remotely possible, IF I continue to commit troops, and IF I make sure KB is posted off Karachi after I cross the Trigger Line. However, 2-3 of those Divisions appear in Karachi IIRC, so he will get immediate reinforcement, not to mention a shot of the arm into the replacement pool. He pulled fragments for all those units I destroyed, which means they will rebuild much quicker after I cross the Trigger Line.

At this point, even if I use ships to land on the coast, it will take a minimum of 2 months with little resistance, because of the great travel distances to the interior.

3. Withdrawl isn't a big problem shipping-wise; despite the massive commitment to India, I am ahead in shipping fuel-resources to the Home Islands. No problems. Part of what helps is that it's a short trip to Singapore from India, compared to the Central Pacific.

It is frustrating that Dan will run and not allow me to deliver a knock-out punch. Do I have regrets? Should I have gone somewhere else, perhaps?

AUSTRALIA I would like to try; it was between India and Oz. Oz is easier to isolate than India. The reason I decided against was that I would have been in constant fear of the British Army on my flank, as other AARs have shown they can steamroll SE Asia. I might give it a go in another PBEM sometime.

HAWAII doesn't give you many VPs if you are going for auto-victory. That, and you lose a vast pile of AKs making the landing on Pearl Harbor, which would require at least 6-8 Divisions on that one spot. And the shipping commitment is much worse than India.

CENT/SOUTH PAC is not interesting to me. New Zealand is way down there and doesn't return much to Japan, and Fiji and Pago Pago are just points; that, and a longer perimeter. No thanks!

Going for all of India is very risky. If it wasn't for that 6-Division trigger....why not? But giving the Allies 6 divisions wipes out all LCU gains and then some.

Combat Report, May 8-9, 1942:

Calcutta: I had 2 Divisions march from Diamond Harbor to Calcutta. The map does not show a river there, but they shock attacked into Calcutta anyway, where the enemy had 20 units (!). Thankfully, the units are mostly AA and weak units, so the attack was 1-2 and casualties fairly light all around.

The following day, the unit count was 15, so he is moving out. When it gets down below 10, and I recover a bit, I will attack again, and that should take Calcutta.

Madras: CR pulled out of Salem toward Madras. I have already, though, cut the raillines to Madras, so I think the 20th Indian Div will either have to withdraw to Madras, or retreat overland over a long, long way. I would like to cut-off and destroy that unit.

Once Madras and Calcutta fall, THEN I have to make a decision on PHASE III. What to do next?

My options:

1. KEEP GOING IN INDIA

2. INVADE West Australia: This would attract US Army troops no doubt, but taking Perth would really keep the USN out of the Indian Ocean.

3. INVADE NORTHEAST OZ: I evacuated Cooktown, but coming back with several divisions would change the tune

4. FIJI

5. MIDWAY

6. ALEUTIANS

7. RAID: PEARL HARBOR REDUX, Perhaps? If I am really lucky, the USN CVs are sitting there.

I would prefer a target that will bring out the US Fleet. That is most likely Midway, though that island isn't worth much in terms of points, or really anything other than an irritating base.

[John 3rd]

I would prefer a target that will bring out the US Fleet. That is most likely Midway, though that island isn't worth much in terms of points, or really anything other than an irritating base.


This just put the image of burning Japanese CVs into my mind! My initial reaction to Midway...

[ny59giants]

2. INVADE West Australia: This would attract US Army troops no doubt, but taking Perth would really keep the USN out of the Indian Ocean.

I go with this one as your current invasion of India pushes him back and will allow you to gain some short term economic benefits. Going for western Australia will allow you to protect your economic assets in the SRA. Protect your LOCs and threaten his.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I would prefer a target that will bring out the US Fleet. That is most likely Midway, though that island isn't worth much in terms of points, or really anything other than an irritating base.


This just put the image of burning Japanese CVs into my mind! My initial reaction to Midway...

It will work. In fact, we can go ahead and detach 2 of our CVs and keep them off Karachi, with another CV TF providing a diversion in the Aleutians, where I know Canoerebel is building up forces. It will take a month to get the Ichiki Det and another 500 SNLF troops together and ships, but that should be plenty of ground troops to take the base, after a morning of aerial bombardment destroys the garrison. I don't quite have enough attack aircraft to fill out the CVs, but no big deal. The USN is nowhere near the place, and at any rate, my complex operational plan is perfect, and cannot fail.

I estimate first week of June we'll get that rolling. Don't tell the Army about it, though.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I would prefer a target that will bring out the US Fleet. That is most likely Midway, though that island isn't worth much in terms of points, or really anything other than an irritating base.


This just put the image of burning Japanese CVs into my mind! My initial reaction to Midway...

It will work. In fact, we can go ahead and detach 2 of our CVs and keep them off Karachi, with another CV TF providing a diversion in the Aleutians, where I know Canoerebel is building up forces. It will take a month to get the Ichiki Det and another 500 SNLF troops together and ships, but that should be plenty of ground troops to take the base, after a morning of aerial bombardment destroys the garrison. I don't quite have enough attack aircraft to fill out the CVs, but no big deal. The USN is nowhere near the place, and at any rate, my complex operational plan is perfect, and cannot fail.

I estimate first week of June we'll get that rolling. Don't tell the Army about it, though.

I recommend you reconnoiter North of Pearl Harbor with a submarine scout string. These will surely detect any movement of his fleet North of Pearl.

Bring plenty of fresh water too.

I agree with the foolproof nature of this plan! At the very least, I can't speak against it for fear of appearing to disagree with you, Admiral sir.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

This is a good debate, and Bullwinkle does make some good point. A few thoughts:

1. The total Light Industry beyond the Trigger Line in India is exactly 500; not enough to launch offensive operations, but enough to keep 10 divisions from dropping dead of hunger. This assumes I keep KB posted without interruption for several months off Karachi. No, starving them out is impossible.

I have observed supply convoys transiting to Karachi, so pretty sure he's shipped some in already, while I had KB in the Bay of Bengal covering those landings.

2. Can I conquer the place? It may be remotely possible, IF I continue to commit troops, and IF I make sure KB is posted off Karachi after I cross the Trigger Line. However, 2-3 of those Divisions appear in Karachi IIRC, so he will get immediate reinforcement, not to mention a shot of the arm into the replacement pool. He pulled fragments for all those units I destroyed, which means they will rebuild much quicker after I cross the Trigger Line.

At this point, even if I use ships to land on the coast, it will take a minimum of 2 months with little resistance, because of the great travel distances to the interior.

3. Withdrawl isn't a big problem shipping-wise; despite the massive commitment to India, I am ahead in shipping fuel-resources to the Home Islands. No problems. Part of what helps is that it's a short trip to Singapore from India, compared to the Central Pacific.

Going for all of India is very risky. If it wasn't for that 6-Division trigger....why not? But giving the Allies 6 divisions wipes out all LCU gains and then some.

I can't comment on your strategic options, as I do read the other AAR. Except to say you're dividing your effort and poking the tiger on some of them. They don't seem to fit into a matrix, except to try to bring out the USN, and when has CR ever done that when he didn't have to?

It sounds like you're leaning one way in India, so I'll just say a couple more things and then shut up to watch the fun.

1. As you have no doubt pretty much turned off the fuel tap, and you know how much any Allied palyer guards his tankers, you are correct that LI is probably his only supply salvation. You can't stopper all raw material flows, so he'll have a bit. I assume the 500 is per day? I'm not a production guru. Looking at my own game, randomly, the 7th Indian Division at Akyab on Rest is demanding 728 Supplies on the Supplies Required line. I "think" that's monthly? Or weekly? Regardless, if LI is really 3500/week, he "may" be able to feed 10 divisions. But I'm proposing forcing them to fight, not sit. You control that, not him.

Also, his long, long retreat back from the coast will eat up supplies (see table in manual.) If he uses mostly rail it won't be a lot, but some.

Also, replacements only happen where there are 2x supplies, and cost supplies to activate devices. Getting a big device windfall from you crossing the line might be a mixed blessing if they suck down operating supply levels to reboot the units you've already crushed. Also, his chances of doing any of the mid-1942 TOE upgrades to the Indian army are slim to none.

If he fixes his troops, can he also work on forts? Especially as the levels go to 6 or higher, and costs are not linear with level gains.

I figured he was sneaking some stuff in from the Mideast, which is why my biggest WTF is why aren't you using your navy? You don't need the KB to stop convoys. Many DD TFs, subs, mines in Karachi, etc. You have to plug Karachi, or at least make him commit RN or USN capital ships to keep it open. If you can't/won't plug Karachi, then yes, don't go for the gold. Absolutely.

Bottom line, if some of the reenforcements auto-arrive in Karachi, and Karachi is blockaded by sea, and partly to the east (paratroops? armor spearhead?) all that does is suck down Karachi's supply stocks nearly instantly to activate the new guys and build their internal supply totals. Fort construction stops, and combat eats at the pile even more. You can add LBA to taste. When Karachi falls, all those new troops do is deliver VPs. But you have to do it quickly.

Then you go knock off Bataan, and those 70,000 POWs, and see where you are.

And if you want to bring out the USN, the BEST way IMO is to credibly threaten an auto-vic. There's really no other loss among those you list as possibilities that the Allied player can't ignore until he chooses to repond, and has overwhelming carrier power.

[Mistmatz]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

I would prefer a target that will bring out the US Fleet. That is most likely Midway, though that island isn't worth much in terms of points, or really anything other than an irritating base.

And why would an "irritating base" bring out the allies?

Personally I like the idea about west Australia because it would deny a big part of the map to the allies, even more so if you can establish a constant threat for his shipping around Karachi. It would also very nicely hinder movement of supplies and fuel from off-map bases.

Ideally with this approach you'd force every move onto the map to be a big one (read invasion), which gives you the opportunity for a fight. Off course this would be even better if you could take out Karachi completely, but I really don't know much about the viability to pull that stunt. Though other posters have a point about supply and an eventually dispersed entry for these reinforcements. And of course they are also VP...[;)][:D]

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I would prefer a target that will bring out the US Fleet. That is most likely Midway, though that island isn't worth much in terms of points, or really anything other than an irritating base.


This just put the image of burning Japanese CVs into my mind! My initial reaction to Midway...

It will work. In fact, we can go ahead and detach 2 of our CVs and keep them off Karachi, with another CV TF providing a diversion in the Aleutians, where I know Canoerebel is building up forces. It will take a month to get the Ichiki Det and another 500 SNLF troops together and ships, but that should be plenty of ground troops to take the base, after a morning of aerial bombardment destroys the garrison. I don't quite have enough attack aircraft to fill out the CVs, but no big deal. The USN is nowhere near the place, and at any rate, my complex operational plan is perfect, and cannot fail.

I estimate first week of June we'll get that rolling. Don't tell the Army about it, though.

I recommend you reconnoiter North of Pearl Harbor with a submarine scout string. These will surely detect any movement of his fleet North of Pearl.

Bring plenty of fresh water too.

I agree with the foolproof nature of this plan! At the very least, I can't speak against it for fear of appearing to disagree with you, Admiral sir.

When I grabbed Midway in my current game I even named it AF just to try to bring on the wrath of the Gods of History!

Make sure you split your CVs into 10-12 different TF that LOOK like they cannot support each other and then bring in your entire Battle Fleet for the decisive battle.

[Q-Ball]

I would like to go for it actually, because the other strategic options are not particularly appealing. And if Dan feels threatened, he might actually bring out the fleet.

Big Problem: That 3380 AV Garrison requirement! How much AV can I get to Karachi, with much of that needed to garrison the route? Even if I skip alot of town, I will still have several divisions tied-up this way.

A preliminary step, before 100% committing, would be the occupation of Goa, which gives me a base on the Arabian Sea, and also, as a bonus, does not have a garrison requirement. I can also land at Socotra as another base, though not sure if that triggers the reinforcements or not. Both can help interdict Karachi.

Using surface ships without CVs would bring out the US CVs for sure within a month, the time it would take to transit there. It wouldn't surprise me if Dan was already stationing his CVs in Australia or Capetown, in case things in India deteriorate further, rather than way in the Pacific. If they aren't in one of those places, then it's probably because he is planning a counterstrike somewhere to take some pressure off, likely somewhere I would have to commit ground units, like the Solomons or SRA. But who knows, I really can't be sure where they are or what they are doing.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

I would like to go for it actually, because the other strategic options are not particularly appealing. And if Dan feels threatened, he might actually bring out the fleet.

Big Problem: That 3380 AV Garrison requirement! How much AV can I get to Karachi, with much of that needed to garrison the route? Even if I skip alot of town, I will still have several divisions tied-up this way.

If you get to auto-vic levels you don't need to worry about garrisoning for long. The interim VP losses are relatively minor compared to knocking off multiple divisions of troops. Karachi--Go Big, Or Go Home.

Until then, by-pass and let the chips fall. Once Karachi and Bombay are secure and forted, rotate back, divide up some divisions, and garrison for whatever time remains until January. But I would emulate Rome: Conquer the savages by going for the heart of their culture, then later set up camps and trade/civilize/convert. Legions thrusting deep into Indian country (pun intended) did not play nice-nice with the local infrastructure.