BACK IN BUSINESS - PzB goes East again(st) Andy Mac

[Nemo121]

I'm not sure you should stop your attack. If you look at the figures you outnumber his force 2.68 : 1 in unadjusted AV.

You've lost 22 infantry squads, 3 engineer squads and 104 vehicles for a total of 129 AV lost. Andy has lost 20 squads, 30 non-combat squads ( 3 AV ), 2 guns and 13 vehicles for a total of 38 squads.

That's an AV loss of 3.39 : 1. Now that's the attrition phase of the battle. Once you make a Bde or Regt exceed 50% casualties the amount of destruction goes up massively.


E.g. Last attack you lost 16 squads, 2 engineers and 108 vehicles = 126 AV in return for 128 Allied squads, 15 AV worth of non-combat, 8 engineer, 5 guns and 69 vehicles = 225 Allied AV.

Even on a bad day you are getting close to the 2.7:1 you need to make this worthwhile. Assuming 3 bad days of attacks like today and 1 good day every 4 attacks you STILL come out on top.

For the above example ( 3 bad days, 1 good day ) you will lose 513 AV, the Allies will lose 339 AV. That's 1.5:1 in their favour, not nearly enough to get the win. Keep attacking, even if it takes 3 or 4 bad days to wear a Bde down to the point that it gets destroyed that is well worth it because the good day when the Bde or Regt takes destroyed instead of disabled will more than compensate.

And if you look at Andy's force there are 2 Divisions and 5 Bdes and 3 Infantry Regiments. That's a lot of Regiments and Bdes which are ripe for destruction.



The ground combat model is pretty arcane at times and the whole firepower vs AV thing and the way in which defender losses impact differently than attacker losses can really make things less than clear. Bottom line though, you are winning this. You just need to attack more frequently to prevent him bringing reinforcements into the fray and rotating his damaged units out. Right now I bet he has time to rotate out the damaged units before you attack again and can get huge numbers of destroyed instead of disabled devices.


Look at the force makeups today vs last time.... BOLD means they are new units. Underlined means they were there previously. I haven't bothered with arty or HQ units.

32nd Infantry Division
16th British Brigade
17th Indian Division
23rd British Brigade
45th Recce Regiment
150th RAC Regiment
Kowloon Brigade
5th Chinese Corps
3rd Carabiniers Regiment
73rd Motorised Brigade
84th Indian Brigade
111th Chindit Bde /2
RAF 222 Group Base Force
6th Medium Regiment
25th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
23rd Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
Burma Corps
14th Indian Light AA Regiment


11th Chindit Bde is largely gone...
It has been replaced by 150th RAC Regiment, Kowloon Bde and 3rd Carabiniers Regiment.

Despite the addition of a Bde and 2 Regiments of troops his AV has only risen by less than 40.


So, in 2 days he brought in 1 Bde and 2 Regts and evacuated another Regt. Is there any possibility of you attacking on consecutive days for 3 or 4 days in a row? I think that might break him. I would also suggest that on the 21st most of the destroyed forces you saw were part of the 111th Chindit Bde. I'd say that Bde is probably out of the war for the next 6 months while it rebuilds.

Today you probably rendered most of another Regt or Bde disabled. If you can attack before he evacs it those disablements will become destroyed squads. I think you really need to attack on 2 consecutive days and then view the results of the two days additively. I think that'll show you a much truer picture.

[janh]

agree, seems like you can earn more than you risk to loose in Burma presently.

[PzB74]

Great analysis Nemo, guess the battle have to continue a bit longer [;)]
Andy got 17 units in Kathia, many others have been diverted to dam up my assault against Myit and the rear.

I can not attack more than once every 2-3 days because supplies are all in the red after one attack.
Have ordered our reserves to move; they will be replaced by our most severly reduced units.

In total I can provide a further 2 divisions, 3 regiments and 1 brigade.

And now we have another battle on our hands! Our long range scouts did what Andy's didn't; provide early warning of a coming assault.
Enemy carriers are moving towards Palmyra from the north while TFs have been spotted heading south by south west near Hawaii.

- Again the KB is rallied; it's south of Luganville and is moving towards Baker Island were it will refuel.
We got 80k fuel at Christmas Island and reserves at Kwajalein.

- The Mini KB arrived at Truk today and is moving towards Kwajalein together with surface elements.
This time we got 7 fleet carriers, 3 light carriers and 2 escort carriers.

Christmas Island itself is a veritable fortress with over 100k supplies, 150 aviation support, Naval, Army and Air HQs.
Maybe we can use our midget subs to some effect this time.

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 24, 43

Air Combat

Heavies hit PM and KB bomp Espiritu!

Morning Air attack on Port Moresby , at 98,130
Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 14 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 34
B-17F Fortress x 16
B-24D Liberator x 25

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 1 damaged
B-17F Fortress: 2 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
4 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 127
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Luganville , at 120,150
Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 14
B5N2 Kate x 126

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 1 destroyed, 5 damaged

Allied ground losses:
195 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 35 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Port hits 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Back for more...

[TheLoneGunman_MatrixForum]

Those destroyers that were 9 hexes away...

Did your Carrier TF's search aircraft detect them? Or were they detected by other search aircraft?

I've heard people report that carriers are more likely to attack what they discover with their own aircraft. I don't know if it's ever been confirmed or anything, just may be yet another reason without having to resort to saying that carriers are simply not capable of making attacks at ranges beyond 8 hexes.

[crsutton]

No, it was confirmed earlier that carrier aircraft will not attack beyond 8 hexes regardless of their capable range.

[TheLoneGunman_MatrixForum]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

No, it was confirmed earlier that carrier aircraft will not attack beyond 8 hexes regardless of their capable range.

Wow, that sounds like a pretty severe bug.

Is there an ETA for a fix?

Kinda puts a dampener on playing the game to me... [:(]

[Djordje]

Also Michaelm confirmed that it does not matter who does the actual detection, only thing that matters is actual DL value (detection level).

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: TheLoneGunman

ORIGINAL: crsutton

No, it was confirmed earlier that carrier aircraft will not attack beyond 8 hexes regardless of their capable range.

Wow, that sounds like a pretty severe bug.

Is there an ETA for a fix?

Kinda puts a dampener on playing the game to me... [:(]

Not a bug... meant to reflect the fact that aircraft operating from a carrier need reserves to find the carrier, find the target, don't always take off with full tanks due to whatever, and other things I am not aware of.

The developer also said that highly experienced squadrons get a chance to strike farther away.

BTW, the normal limit is 8 hexes for IJN and 7 hexes for Allies.

[erstad]

You've lost 22 infantry squads, 3 engineer squads and 104 vehicles for a total of 129 AV lost

Not all vehicle losses affect AV. In fact, my experience is that you tend to lose (disable or destroy) a lot more motorized support than actual tanks, unless the unit is way down on intact support.

Which only reinforces the point.

[janh]

ORIGINAL: PzB
And now we have another battle on our hands! Our long range scouts did what Andy's didn't; provide early warning of a coming assault.
Enemy carriers are moving towards Palmyra from the north while TFs have been spotted heading south by south west near Hawaii.

The value of good intel. This well enable to develop a trap and pick your targets, while Andy could have to stumble into your KB's blindly... That's how a weaker force can beat a much superior one... The lessons from the past come are actually quite useful.

[veji1]

7 fleet carriers + 5 assorted CVLs and CVEs is actually fairly small... Are you sure he can't bring more to the battle.. you would be far away from friendly ports and with jap DC, even on a tactical draw you could end up losing 5 CVs to him 2 or something like this. With your previous losses (miniKB, BBs..) I would advocate prudence.

[TheLoneGunman_MatrixForum]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: TheLoneGunman

ORIGINAL: crsutton

No, it was confirmed earlier that carrier aircraft will not attack beyond 8 hexes regardless of their capable range.

Wow, that sounds like a pretty severe bug.

Is there an ETA for a fix?

Kinda puts a dampener on playing the game to me... [:(]

Not a bug... meant to reflect the fact that aircraft operating from a carrier need reserves to find the carrier, find the target, don't always take off with full tanks due to whatever, and other things I am not aware of.

The developer also said that highly experienced squadrons get a chance to strike farther away.

BTW, the normal limit is 8 hexes for IJN and 7 hexes for Allies.

Ah! Forgive my ignorance then! [&o]

In that case, I recommend that PzB plan accordingly and make his strike from 8 hexes!

[Rob Brennan UK]

OOH I am looking forward to this. Goold Luck PzB and i'd agree completely on nemo's analysis. Not sure what the commonwealth replacemnet levels are at this date but i suspect he'll struggle to repair british and indian forces.

Whats on Palmyra and christmas in case he does a double assault ? christmas being unlimited is most likely a fortress (as you said earlier) but whats on the limited playmyra that might stand upto a full yankee attack ? forts , AV etc .. Really curious from an allied perspective as to how much he'll need to bring to the party (to help my own game [;)]).

[PzB74]

If a Zero with max range of 14 hexes needs a security limit flying of a carrier why don't cap it at 12 hexes?
The Kate has a max range of 9 hexes and is capped at 8....
The Val has a max range of 7 and is allowed to fly 7 hexes.....
The Judy has a max range of 18 hexes and is capped at half?

This is a nonsense rule made up by AFBs! [:-]

The destroyers were spotted by the carriers themselves LoneGun, as stated I think it's detection levels that count.

Engaging the Allied carriers should only be done after they engage Christmas Island LBA.
If Andy wants to engage we will engage him with 120 Zero's and 100 naval bombers.

Yep, Christmas holds 6 forts and 550 AV. Palmyra has a limit of 6000 troops; think I got 6100 men there including a crack inf regiment and a naval guard unit.
I've begun air lifting a para unit; didn't want to fast transport in anything right now as the Allied carriers are coming.

A double assault or even single assault using a large full sized division and engineers will work but it will take time, as last time and then Andy will inherit a destroyed base.
What good will this do him if has to retire with his fleet? We will still have Christmas Island and it's size 5 airfield + the KB coming in [:)]

Maybe Andy is going for another target....! Let's wait and see, should be fun.

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: PzB

If a Zero with max range of 14 hexes needs a security limit flying of a carrier why don't cap it at 12 hexes?
The Kate has a max range of 9 hexes and is capped at 8....
The Val has a max range of 7 and is allowed to fly 7 hexes.....
The Judy has a max range of 18 hexes and is capped at half?

This is a nonsense rule made up by AFBs! [:-]

The destroyers were spotted by the carriers themselves LoneGun, as stated I think it's detection levels that count.

Engaging the Allied carriers should only be done after they engage Christmas Island LBA.
If Andy wants to engage we will engage him with 120 Zero's and 100 naval bombers.

Yep, Christmas holds 6 forts and 550 AV. Palmyra has a limit of 6000 troops; think I got 6100 men there including a crack inf regiment and a naval guard unit.
I've begun air lifting a para unit; didn't want to fast transport in anything right now as the Allied carriers are coming.

A double assault or even single assault using a large full sized division and engineers will work but it will take time, as last time and then Andy will inherit a destroyed base.
What good will this do him if has to retire with his fleet? We will still have Christmas Island and it's size 5 airfield + the KB coming in [:)]

Maybe Andy is going for another target....! Let's wait and see, should be fun.

that´s probably because the nonsense then capped the Allied strikes at 7 hexes. You may not find this a problem, well, I just recently ended up at 8 hexes against KB and while KB sent a strike, we didn´t. The range advantage of Japanese carrier based ac was more a theory in real life, it is there in the game though, so nothing to complain for us JFBs I guess.

[PzB74]

Castor, you've been playing Allies too long; more heresy from you and you're now longer a member of the club [:D]

- Jap ac had a real range advantage; the Wildcats and Hellcats did not have the Zero's range to escort the bombers.
The Jap plan for the Marianas did indeed capitalize on this advantage.

The consequences would mostly include increased op losses but if the enemy is spotted at e.g 10-11 hexes why shouldn't Zero's and Judy's take
off and attack?

The Allied carriers appeared 2 hexes from Palmyra and launched strikes.
No sign of the invasion force yet; this could even just be a raid but I doubt it.

All Jap ac at Christmas Island are held back at a given range, subs are swarming into the area.
The advantage we have from last time is that Christmas Island is much stronger, we have 4 destroyers, 3 large "E"scort destroyers there as well.
We also have mines at Palmyra and Xmas.

The one thing we still don't have is coastal guns; really a great idea not to give Japan a single CD gun before 3/43.
The only ones available are at Wake and I decided against moving them.

Next turn KB will refuel west of Baker Island; then start to position itself while it awaits the arrival of the Mini KB that will be at Kwajalein in 1-2 turns.

No snags this time, forgot to start SnagIt and took a lot blanks... [8|]

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 25, 43

Air Combat

As expected; Allied cv's hit Palmyra - now deserted.
We sweep Chittagong; great results! Lost 1 Tojo and claimed 16-20 enemy fighters.

Morning Air attack on Palmyra , at 170,133
Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 31,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 24

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
24 x F4F-4 Wildcat sweeping at 25000 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Palmyra , at 170,133
Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 32 NM, estimated altitude 28,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 24

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
24 x F4F-4 Wildcat sweeping at 25000 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Palmyra , at 170,133
Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 13 NM, estimated altitude 28,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 25

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
25 x F4F-4 Wildcat sweeping at 25000 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Palmyra , at 170,133
Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 11 NM, estimated altitude 27,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 25

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
25 x F4F-4 Wildcat sweeping at 25000 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Palmyra , at 170,133
Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 28,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 20
TBF-1 Avenger x 69

Japanese aircraft losses
No Japanese losses

No Allied losses

Airbase hits 11
Airbase supply hits 11
Runway hits 95
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Chittagong , at 55,41
Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 32,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 34

Allied aircraft
Hurricane I Trop x 3
Kittyhawk III x 5
P-40E Warhawk x 15
P-40K Warhawk x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane I Trop: 1 destroyed
Kittyhawk III: 1 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 3 destroyed
P-40K Warhawk: 4 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
17 x Ki-44-IIa Tojo sweeping at 30000 feet *
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Mynok]

Well...Japan really didn't have many coastal guns they emplaced during the war. Pretty much just the ones in the Marianas.

[castor troy]

The only reason I´m playing the Allied in AE is the fact that I don´t want to play the transport tycoon of the Pacific. I know that you can use CS convoys but I never ever leave something to the AI which means I would probably spend another 15-20 min each turn to create and move transport TFs. So yeah, I´m still a JFB as this is what I would play in WITP in 90% of the time and the masses of transport duties is the only thing that holds me off in AE. My average turn takes me 1.5 hours already.

It´s not only the theoretical range of an aircraft that gives you an advantage. Try flying a 12 hex strike from your moving carriers to attack the enemy´s moving carriers, fight and try getting back. You are correct that the Zero had a range advantage over the Wildcat. But look at the real life carrier engagements or strikes against other targets coming from carriers. Not sure you will find 12 hex Zeke/Judy/Jill strikes. I may be wrong with that but IMO, the "theoretical" range advantage of Japanese carrier based ac is in the game anyway with them having 8 hex range and the Allied 7. You may not know that you can equip Hellcats and the bombers with drop tanks too. I have never heard about a carrier engagement when both sides launched all their aircraft with drop tanks to fight each other anyway. Again, I may be wrong about that, I just can´t remember having ever heard about it.

The main action at Coral Sea for example took place at around 4-5 hexes range IIRC.

[PzB74]

If Japan wanted to place CD guns somewhere they did so; like on Tarawa - 4x8" guns.
US Base Force units have CD guns from the start making any invasion potentially very dangerous.
- US invasion forces don't have to bother about CD guns until 03/43.

A high risiko area like the Line Islands would have gotten immediate priority for CD guns.
Of course it would take time to place them, the bigger guns the more time and resources.

One of the "issues" with a simulated game like AE is that when opposing carrier forces have a set destination they move to this
destination no matter what; in real life enemy carriers were spotted and then attacked at optimal range. In game format you will end up way too close for (Jap)comfort
and thus loosing the range advantage.

2 turns have passed; don't have time to update AAR.
Enemy carrier strikes on Palmyra and huge fleets approaching; KB fleets cosing on Baker Island.
- I'm holding our assets back for now.

In Burma another attack goes in; 7500 vs 3600 casualties. Most of our losses was caused in a Bde that was below 50% strength.
It's tricky to withdraw them in time without loosing their AV. Our big divisions are in good shape; need to wait a couple of days for reinforcements before attacking again.

[Nemo121]

Waiting helps AndyMac more than you. Don't get sucked into the view that your own problems are worse than his or else you'll always do things a little slowly while "waiting for reinforcements" but, in reality, Andy will probably be able to bring more reinforcements in than you ( certainly relatively speaking he'll bring more cause for every 3 divisions you bring he only needs to bring 1 ).

Attack again as soon as you can, just leave whatever the shattered Regt/Bde is out of the attack.



As to staying back? Why, wouldn't this be a perfect time to disrupt the amphibious invasion ( if that's what it is ) with an 8 range CV strike on the amphibious TFs once they reach whatever their target hex is. All you'd have to face then would be LRCAP from the CVs - which would be light. Sure it would fatigue your airgroups but a nice 8 hex strike ( which can be achieved with some positioning and "follow non-reacting TF with CV TF" orders ) followed by a night-time surface combat strike into the hex being invaded would probably yield some very nice results.