Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[JohnDillworth]

I think Brad is also landing troops at Goa for a drive on Bombay.

Do you make a stand at Bombay or pull back and see if he wants to tempt triggering reinforcements? Bombay is a biggie. He gets that and he has a great base for the KB.

[ny59giants]

NYGiants, if you're reading this we're not to your neck of the woods, yet. It will be several more years before we make it to northeastern Tennessee.

I'm less than 10 miles away from it. I live close to Watauga Dam.

I did some hiking around Brevard, NC while living in SC. The Pisgah National Forest has a lot of trails to hike. Evenings were in Asheville, NC. A nice combination. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I think Brad is also landing troops at Goa for a drive on Bombay.

Do you make a stand at Bombay or pull back and see if he wants to tempt triggering reinforcements? Bombay is a biggie. He gets that and he has a great base for the KB.

That is the huge $64 dollar question. I don't know the answer yet. On the one hand, I don't want to divide my forces into too many groups, thus inviting defeat in detail. On the other hand, Bombay is a big urban hex with five forts (and on the way to six) that would be a tough fortress for the Japanese to take.

At the moment, I have a slight leaning toward leaving a strong garrison in place (currently I have 1100 AV at Bombay) and relying upon reinforcements to help me defend Karachi/Delhi/Ahmadebad should Brad decide to cross the "triggering reinforcements" line.

What reinforcements, you ask? Most of the East African brigade just arrived at Karachi and safely unloaded. Another Indian brigade or two will arrive in India over the next month or so. A British division arrives in Aden in something less than 50 days. And two Marine regiments, a tank brigade, and an artillery unit will be on the way from the East Coast soon (the tanks and artillery are already on the way to Capetown). As stated previously, I will use the Allied carriers to get these troops to Karachi.

It's going to take some time for the Japanese to make it across India to threaten Bombay/Delhi/Ahmadebad, so I'll be reevaluating as the situation develops.

Edited to Add: On the other hand, I don't have to have Bombay. For my purposes and plans, the Allies are fine as long as I hold at least Karachi. So that line of thought suggests that I abandon Bombay before any troops there get cut off. I don't know which line of thought will win out - stay and fight or run like a scalded dog.

[Mike Solli]

How much supply do you have in Bombay?  1100 AV won't last long without supply.

[JohnDillworth]

How much supply do you have in Bombay? 1100 AV won't last long without supply.

Interesting point. Should be easy to supply for now. If air cover is not an issue you could probably send a convoy directly in loaded with stuff. That will get tougher and tougher particularly if there are carriers in the area. I guess one could turn the dials and have most of the supply go there instead of elsewhere. There is less and less elsewhere everyday but Karachi still seems easy to get to. There is some quality (Australian) troops around so it would take 2-3,000 to AV to make a serious attempt to take the city. It will take some time to get that much in place, particularly if the railroads are not fully open (any paratroopers?). I think sufficient reinforcements will get there before than. If the offensive is going to bog down, I think it will be near Bombay.

[Canoerebel]

SigInt just reported another IJA division (4th Guards) in India. That's at least 13 committed to the campaign thus far. That's a heck of alot of firepower and doesn't leave Brad with much to go on the offensive elsewhere.

4th Guards is one of the four extra divisions Japan gets in Scenario Two. Another one of these - 6th Guards - is also in India.

Brad is nuts to commit that much firepower to India unless he intends to take the entire subcontinent, "reinforcement triggering" or not. It's going to take him a long time to extract that much infantry once he decides to do so. It would suit me very much if he was still waging war in India late this year. I would love to have most of the Imperial Japanese Army committed to India while the Allies were moving elsehwere....

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
It would suit me very much if he was still waging war in India late this year.

Not sure you will feel this way if he does take the entire subcontinent and gets auto-victory on January 1, 1943.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
It would suit me very much if he was still waging war in India late this year.

Not sure you will feel this way if he does take the entire subcontinent and gets auto-victory on January 1, 1943.

That's why I said I was fine with it as long as I hold onto Karachi.

[Canoerebel]

5/25/42 to 5/27/42

India: No major developments since the last report - just the continued steady Japanese advances in the east and south. The Allies have managed to extract the Indian brigade that had been threatened with envelopment. The last unit that I have my eyes on is an Indian division making its way through the interior NW of Madras. I don't think Brad has spotted this unit, yet, and I hope I can get it to Bombay or Ahmadebad before the enemy closes in.

India Reinforcements: A quick look at the reinforcement que shows the following for India: (1) Indian brigade to arrive up north in a few weeks; (2) Indian brigade to arrive in Madras in a few weeks, or in the likely event that Japan holds Madras at that time, probably to divert to Karachi; (3) British division to arrive at Aden within 40 days. That's another 600+ AV.

India Supplies: At present I have most of the supplies set in Karachi, Delhi and Ahmadebad. If I decide to stick it out at Bombay, I'll send more that way.

Philippines: Clark Field fell to a 3:1 shock attack on the 27th. The last redoubt is Bataan, which I expect to hold into early or mid June.

NoPac: I-20 was waiting at Attu Island and picked off an xAK carrying part of an arty unit. (I believe this is the first enemy sub to make a showing in the Aleutians.) The other two xAKs are posted to the NE, awaiting arrival of some ASW escorts. Allied recon are flying over Onnekotan Jima and Ketoi Jima, which I feel sure got Brad's attention.

SoPac: Transports carrying a Marine regiment, and transports carrying an Army regiment, are both bound for Suva. Presently, the TFs are widely separated and closing on Pago Pago from different directions. Upon arrival, if safe, that will probably be it for the Fiji garrisons.

Supplies and Oil: The Allies have had a convoy system running from Cristobal to Capetown since early in the game. Another is about to begin operating from East Coast to Capetown. The Capetown hub was originally intended to facilitate Allied offensives much later in the game, but I'm also drawing on those supplies to send to India. Supplies are also flowing from Capetown to Oz. I am not yet stockpiling supplies anywhere in the Pacific except Pearl Harbor and Kodiak, but that will eventually change as Tahiti and Christmas Island become more secure.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
It would suit me very much if he was still waging war in India late this year.

Not sure you will feel this way if he does take the entire subcontinent and gets auto-victory on January 1, 1943.

That's why I said I was fine with it as long as I hold onto Karachi.

Seems as though your rationale for this being a game winning proposition for Q-ball versus something 'suiting you' very much is balanced on a knife-edge. Are you putting the outcome of this game into your last ditch defense of Karachi? If so, I'd be a whole lot more nervous about the outcome than you appear to be.

If your defense of Karachi is what separates your successful Indian campaign from Q-ball's autovictory, what are you doing to buttress Karachi's defenses right now? I must confess that I haven't been following your Karachi buildup per se, if you've discussed it on this AAR.

[Canoerebel]

We're still too early in the campaign to know exactly what's going to happen - how far Brad will come and with how much; how much force the Allies will have to defend with, where the Allies will make a stand, what the supply situation will be like, and whether either or both sides will have carriers present.

Thus I really can't foresee the ultimate outcome of this campaign yet. I am not overly worried yet, mostly because the Japanese have a long way to go, the Allies have reinforcmeents coming, and the calendar keeps flipping over day by day. I'll be sweating profusely, though, if the Japanese have 15 divisions advancing on Karachi with the KB posted offshore. At a minimum, I think we are at least two months away from the Japanese being in a position to move in force on NW India.

I'm not even sure that a complete Japanese victory in India will assure auto victory, but I'm operating on the assumption that it will.

I will fight for NW India. I will commit my carriers to that fight. And I can use any Japanese advance to my later advantage as long as I hold Karachi. The Allies are actively using this interval to position forces, supplies, and fuel in peparation for the offensives that should be able to use the Japanese involvement in India to advantage.

That's why I'm not sweating yet - this will all become an important part of the utlimate Allied plan as long as I don't lose all of India.

[John 3rd]

My opinion is that India is safe. It is a fool's quest to try to push past THE LINE and trigger all those reinforcements...

Look to the Aleutians, a renewed Australia push, or thrust towards Hawaii (Midway, Johnston, Line Islands).

My .02

[Cribtop]

I tend to agree with John 3rd. I still think Brad's major objective is to make the road to Tokyo as long as possible, particularly through the oft-used AFB roads of the Burma front and the Darwin-Timor axis into the DEI. In the case of the latter, he may be fighting the last patch's war, but it made sense at the time.

There is also the cool factor of being the first JFB to take a major run at India, but I don't see him going past The Line. That said, India is clearly his main effort for the moment, and he doesn't have many toys to send elsewhere as long as he is focused on the subcontinent.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

My opinion is that India is safe. It is a fool's quest to try to push past THE LINE and trigger all those reinforcements...

Look to the Aleutians, a renewed Australia push, or thrust towards Hawaii (Midway, Johnston, Line Islands).

My .02

What kind of reinforcements are you talking about? (I really pay little attention to the Allied side of things.)

[Canoerebel]

Mike, a Japanese incursion into NW India - crossing the line of hexes one hex south of Delhi - triggers all kinds of reinforcements including a Pakastani brigade at Karachi, additional reinforcements that arrive at Capetown, British aircraft including Spitfires, and a host of squads and equipment that will be used to flesh out the understrength Indian units already on the map. These reinforcements are detailed at length earlier in my AAR, but you'd have to scroll back four or five pages.

[Mike Solli]

I was aware of the "line" but didn't know what you got.  I'll find it.  Thanks.

[paullus99]

Even in Scenario #2 - that's got to be the majority of his experienced infantry force. I assume that means that he's got to be short-handed everywhere else. What does he have committed to Australia? It can't be full divisions, perhaps a bunch of regiments?

Are you thinking about going on the offensive there? To put some additional pressure on him?

[Canoerebel]

The only IJA divisions that I'm seeing are in India and China. Elsewhere he's using smaller units. Of course, this reduces the threat to well-garrisoned Allied outposts, though I can't discount the possibility that Brad may have the odd division or two at his disposal there.

I don't have any present plans to go on the offensive in Oz, simply because doing so would require an amphibious operation, because supplying an army overland through Alice Springs does not appear possible. But if I mount an amphibious operation, it won't be in Australia. I have other things in mind, but I won't delve into them now for OpSec reasons. I'll leave it at this: my long-range plan has remained the same since day one, and Brad's moves have increased the viability of that plan, I believe.

In addition to the long-range plan that I'm trying to keep quiet, the Allies are engaging in some visible buildups that I hope will create some pressure in Brad's mind. The main effort is in NoPac, but I'm also doing a few things around Oz.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I have other things in mind, but I won't delve into them now for OpSec reasons.

What?! You don't trust us?!

[JohnDillworth]

because supplying an army overland through Alice Springs does not appear possible

A thought. As Burma and India are, shall we say, in dispose, you probably don't have anyplace to base your transport planes to supply China. Perhaps moving them all to Australia might allow you to run a Stalingrad style air supply campaign? It would be slow, but once you get a base you should be able to supply a limited number of troops by air. And hey, C-47's are a lot better then Ju-52's