Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[AcePylut]

Question for you 'rebel (me of the home within site of many Lincoln-Douglas debates:) ) -

What do you do with your AP's and AK's that covert to APA's, LSI's, etc.. in '43? I'm putting mine in the East Coast and letting them sit there, but I might wanna use them for a mini-invasion before hand.

In your (and anyone else's) experience, is it worth the risk or are they better served working the war as APA's etc.?

[JohnDillworth]

Are you running all the Capetown fuel to Perth? It distributes nicely to the rest of Australia. That did not used to work but a recent patch made this work and it really helps.

[Canoerebel]

Replies to various suggestions and requests:

Screen Shots: I'll post some screen shots next time I'm at my office (either today or tomorrow).

AcePylut: Great idea! I've been very cautious with my merchant fleet during this game - especially in comparison to my game with Miller - but I haven't actually systemitized protection of my potential APA/LSI. I'll start next turn.

JohnDillworth: Per my grand strategic plan implemented at the start of the war, the Allies have not been shuttling fuel to any exposed bases to this point - too dangerous. I felt like I would be better off safeguarding my TKs and then running massive convoys when important bases like Tahiti were safe (and large enough to minimize storage spoilage). To this point, the only fuel convoys running have been Seattle to Dutch Harbor/Kodiak; San Francisco to Pearl Harbor; and Abadan/Aden/North America to Capetown. I'm justabout to set up fuel convoys to Oz, but I'm going to utilize Tasmania as my fuel dump. Perth is too dangerous, and with Adelaide I don't have any control over where the fuel ends up. Dump it at Hobart and it's going to remain on that little island. From there I can easily transport to places of need.

PnzrB: In Cap-n-Gown's AAR, PnzrB noted that as the Allies he would not engage in any major amphibious operations until 1944. There is a great deal of merit in that idea, and I began this game with a similar idea, though for particular reasons I wanted to shoot for early autumn of '43. This strategy has merit because it minimizes the times the Allies take on Japan at equal or disadvantageous odds. Meanwhile, the Japanese player feels good about things and continues to build up his front line defenses, while also working on his rear defenses. Then, in '44, the Allies can simply bypass the first line of defense and simply overwhelm an interior and critically important locale - Borneo, Luzon, Hokkaido, and Sikhalin Island come to mind. If the Allies haven't lost anything major in '42 or '43, they would have a force of ships and men so powerful that there would be no stopping them, especially if the Allied player acheived strategic surprise through deception. In this game, Brad may force me to move much earlier due to the situation in India, but I still hold out some hope that I can avoid committing to a big op until around September '43.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
PnzrB: In Cap-n-Gown's AAR, PnzrB noted that as the Allies he would not engage in any major amphibious operations until 1944. There is a great deal of merit in that idea, and I began this game with a similar idea, though for particular reasons I wanted to shoot for early autumn of '43. This strategy has merit because it minimizes the times the Allies take on Japan at equal or disadvantageous odds. Meanwhile, the Japanese player feels good about things and continues to build up his front line defenses, while also working on his rear defenses. Then, in '44, the Allies can simply bypass the first line of defense and simply overwhelm an interior and critically important locale - Borneo, Luzon, Hokkaido, and Sikhalin Island come to mind. If the Allies haven't lost anything major in '42 or '43, they would have a force of ships and men so powerful that there would be no stopping them, especially if the Allied player acheived strategic surprise through deception. In this game, Brad may force me to move much earlier due to the situation in India, but I still hold out some hope that I can avoid committing to a big op until around September '43.

While I agree with the logic of this approach from a strictly Allied military balance perspective, 99.9% of games where the Allies run and hide until >January 1944 will wind up dropped by the IJ player-and with good cause. PBEM is an application of tactical and strategic military principles, true enough. But it's also a game that's supposed to be fun for both players.

Philosophically, how is this "no offensives until 1944" different than "I wanna wait until I get A-bombs to start an offensive"? Only different by degrees. I would probably drop a game if the latter approach was adopted.

[Canoerebel]

It's a legitimate tactic in my book assuming that the Japanese player has an adequate counter, which he probably does - as long as he's alert to the peril and structures his defenses accordingly.  If there isn't an adequate counter, then the tactic would be an abuse of the game engine and would require a house rule.  But until that is known for certain, I think the tactic is legit. 
 
P.S.  By the same token, I think the few comments made to the effect that Brad may be proving that Japan is too strong in Scenario Two so that house rules may be needed to address "the India gambit" are extremely premature.  Brad is a very good player, but my strategy is certainly enabling him to do alot of things that he might not be free to do given a different Allied strategy.  This game may be a perfect storm of (1) good Japanese pleyer who (2) with experience knows how far he can push, and (3) is aggressive in pushing, and (4) is facing an Allied player willing to concede alot of territory.

[VSWG]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Allied Reinforcements: I withdrew a bunch of short-timer aircraft squadrons to bolster my political points, and then on the 30th bought 27th Division and a restricted Canadia unit. These were immediately ordered to board transports, 27th bound for Capetown via Balboa, and the Canadians bound for Attu or Adak. I was fortunate that I acted when I did, because I forgot that about 10 zillion ships were set to auto-upgrade the next day. So now half my ships are in the yards for a couple of weeks.

You don't have to transport troops manually between the USA and Capetown. Strat move a LCU to Eastern USA, and then set its destination to Capetown. The unit will disappear, and appear in Capetown approx. 30 days later. Same with planes.

See chapter 8.3.3. of the manual for details.

[Canoerebel]

Wow, I didn't know that! Great info, but I wish you had posted about 40 days ago game time!

[ny59giants]

With the loss of some of your India bases for reinforcements to arrive, you say they will show up at Aden. Have you looked ahead to see how many of them "may" need PP to buy out as they were initially going to be assigned "Restricted" commands??

[Smeulders]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Wow, I didn't know that! Great info, but I wish you had posted about 40 days ago game time!

If you used quick transports, your still better off doing it this way. I'm not quite sure what speed they use for the automatic transfer, but they certainly won't beat a liner.

[Canoerebel]

NYGiants, that's another good question that I hadn't bothered to ask myself.  I'll reply based upon what I do know, then I want to ask a question open to anybody reading this.

The British division that will arrive in Aden in less than a month will be unrestricted.  That amounts to about 450 AV including the recce regiment.  In addition, a U.S. Army division, two Marine regiments and a Marine tank unit will arrive at Capetown within a month, giving me an additional 730 AV.  The Indian units that are diverting from Madras to Aden don't begin arriving for awhile - at least two more months.

Now, my question for the peanut gallery.  [WARNING:  In answering this question, please don't base your answer on anything you've read in Q-Ball's AAR, especially concerning the forces he has available in India and what his intentions are there.]  How much Japanese AV do you think it would take to conquer a major urban hex (like Bombay, Cawnpore, Delhi, and Karachi) that had 1,500 AV behind six forts?  There are variables of course - like supply availability and the quality of the defenders.  But just a rough guesstimate as to how much AV and how long to conquer?

I'm trying to choose between one of two defensive options:  [1] evacuate the front lines and send all troops to Karachi to make a last stand; or [2] utilize the defensive terrain to slow, stymie, and frustrate the enemy even if I end up losing garrisons at places like Bombay and Delhi.

If I choose the latter, which I'm leaning toward at the moment, I think I can configure my defenses like this:  Bombay, six forts, 2,000 AV; Karachi, four or five forts, 2,500 to 3,000 AV [once the Brit and American reinforcements arrive]; Delhi or Ahmadebad, four forts, 1,000 to 1,500 AV.

Here's another question that I can't answer off the top of my head:  When do the Indian units really begin to flesh out?  I seem to remember that they begin growing substantially in late '42, allowing the Allies to go on the offensive in most games, but perhaps it's actually '43?

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Now, my question for the peanut gallery.  [WARNING:  In answering this question, please don't base your answer on anything you've read in Q-Ball's AAR, especially concerning the forces he has available in India and what his intentions are there.]  How much Japanese AV do you think it would take to conquer a major urban hex (like Bombay, Cawnpore, Delhi, and Karachi) that had 1,500 AV behind six forts?  There are variables of course - like supply availability and the quality of the defenders.  But just a rough guesstimate as to how much AV and how long to conquer?

I'd surround it and starve them out. Air bombardment. I wouldn't assault the place.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

NYGiants, that's another good question that I hadn't bothered to ask myself.  I'll reply based upon what I do know, then I want to ask a question open to anybody reading this.

The British division that will arrive in Aden in less than a month will be unrestricted.  That amounts to about 450 AV including the recce regiment.  In addition, a U.S. Army division, two Marine regiments and a Marine tank unit will arrive at Capetown within a month, giving me an additional 730 AV.  The Indian units that are diverting from Madras to Aden don't begin arriving for awhile - at least two more months.

Now, my question for the peanut gallery.  [WARNING:  In answering this question, please don't base your answer on anything you've read in Q-Ball's AAR, especially concerning the forces he has available in India and what his intentions are there.]  How much Japanese AV do you think it would take to conquer a major urban hex (like Bombay, Cawnpore, Delhi, and Karachi) that had 1,500 AV behind six forts?  There are variables of course - like supply availability and the quality of the defenders.  But just a rough guesstimate as to how much AV and how long to conquer?

I'm trying to choose between one of two defensive options:  [1] evacuate the front lines and send all troops to Karachi to make a last stand; or [2] utilize the defensive terrain to slow, stymie, and frustrate the enemy even if I end up losing garrisons at places like Bombay and Delhi.

If I choose the latter, which I'm leaning toward at the moment, I think I can configure my defenses like this:  Bombay, six forts, 2,000 AV; Karachi, four or five forts, 2,500 to 3,000 AV [once the Brit and American reinforcements arrive]; Delhi or Ahmadebad, four forts, 1,000 to 1,500 AV.

Here's another question that I can't answer off the top of my head:  When do the Indian units really begin to flesh out?  I seem to remember that they begin growing substantially in late '42, allowing the Allies to go on the offensive in most games, but perhaps it's actually '43?

Assuming approximately equal quality parity of attackers / defenders, I'd say 4-5x the AV value of the attacker would be necessary. Thus, 6,000-7,500 AV to answer your question. That scenario you describe would be a tough nut to crack.

[VSWG]

My rule of thumb is defending AV x terrain modifier. Unless the defender is out of supply, of course.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Indian units that are diverting from Madras to Aden don't begin arriving for awhile - at least two more months.

Wow - they divert to Aden instead of to Karachi?

[JohnDillworth]

Now, my question for the peanut gallery. [WARNING: In answering this question, please don't base your answer on anything you've read in Q-Ball's AAR, especially concerning the forces he has available in India and what his intentions are there.] How much Japanese AV do you think it would take to conquer a major urban hex (like Bombay, Cawnpore, Delhi, and Karachi) that had 1,500 AV behind six forts? There are variables of course - like supply availability and the quality of the defenders. But just a rough guesstimate as to how much AV and how long to conquer?

5,000 or a bit more based on the lowish quality of some of your troops. However, it would take a looooong time, and lots of supply on the attackers side. IF you are talking Karachi, I don't know that he could totally blockade. individual ships could slip through. Maybe not troops, but supply yes. You have xAK's to burn. The KB could isolate, but not for months at at time unless he would divide it. a though. If you are preparing for a long seige, land based AA is much better than ship based. at least if you have enogh of it. You might want to consider getting a whole big bunch of AA in there to protect you supply ships comming in. Time is ticking by, I don't there is enough of it left for a long siege.
I thank you and your opponent for an interesting game and the great AAR.

[vettim89]

I think you may to do some math on this issue. What does 15 full divisions of IJA power equal in terms of AS? What is the total AS of your units in India now? What is the potential growth for your units? How much AS are you sending to India and how much is going to come as reinforcements?

The reason I ask those questions is that I think it is likely that the Japanese offensive with eventually grind to a halt even if that occurs at the outskirts of Karachi. The next question is what will you do once that happens? Will you try to kick the Japanese out of India? If that is the case, what additional forces will be necessary to move 15 divisions back and eventually out? The Allies are not exactly blessed with very many LCU's. If you go full bore to get the Japanese out of India, you may not be able to do much more. You have no choice but to reinforce India now to avoid the knock out blow. I guess I am saying that you need to think very long term when you decide what forces you allocate to this theater.

So much game to be played right now. Depending on what happens over the next year or so, Q-Ball may have almost his entire army in a very exposed position. There are so many ways you will eventually be able to cut off this huge force from its supply source. Brad is an astute player. I have to wonder if there is a point where he will see that autovictory is not obtainable. If that happens he will likley very quickly pull most of his forces out of India. If he doesn't, all you have to do is go deep and take Sumatra or even Rangoon to cut him off. So as I see it, your goal should be to hold the line to that point where Brad's "spidey sense" starts tingling. I think he'll pull out long before you have the power to push him out. So if you overallocate resources to India, you are actually playing into his strategy. JOMHO

[bigred]

I recall from my previous defense of NZ if you place any troops in the capitol city they can be disbanded at your convienence, all the troops and equipment are placed in your pools. This can also be done at any city w/ over 100000 supply(good luck). You may need to use this option. Disband before the city surrenders. Just another defensive tool.

[Canoerebel]

BigRed: Thanks for yet another helpful reader tip. I am getting some very helpful input and rule citings from you guys.

Vettim: I don't plan to engage in a sustained, massive campaign to reconquer India. I prefer to cut to the chase and start my first major campaign somewhere much closer to the Japanese heartland. Of course, that doesn't mean I won't fight in India. I'll use troops and aircraft as best I can, but my main effort will be to use India as a diversion (this isn't anything new - I've outlined this from the beginning of the game). Of course, this is subject to change to adapt the the actual circumstances as the game further develops.

I think there is a reasonable chance that Brad has already decided whether or not he's coming full bore in India. I am scouring SigInt and known troop dispositions for clues or signs of withdrawals. If he is withdrawing, he would keep up some forward pressure while at the same time organizing a pull out. I'm going to stop and mount a credible fight at Cawnpore (major urban hex in north India) and see if Brad really wants it. My gut feeling is that Brad isn't coming full bore, but I am not acting on that until I have enough evidence to draw an informed conclusion.

Thus far the Allies have played the game just as outlined in the opening days of the war. Here's a summary of what that plan has been and how it's worked out. Interestingly, even though I feel justified in giving myself some high marks to this point, all of these things are secondary to whether or not I made the right call in not using my carriers or other offensive capabilities to counter Brad's India offensive. If I've failed in that regard, then all of my successes will be meaningless.

1. At the outset, I felt that Brad would come hard for one of these three places - India, Austrailia, or Hawaii. All early war deployements were made with that in mind.

2. Brad orchestrated a massive diversion against Australia. While impressed by his efforts there, I remained worried about India. Consequently, the Allies diverted one of the two Aussie divisions that arrive at Aden to India. That was an astute move and I bet it made Brad scractch his head when he first bumped into those Aussies.

3. If Brad invaded either Oz or India, I wanted him to penetrate deeply, but not deeply enough to threat the main urban area (Melbourne/Sydney and Karachi/Delhi). I thought (and think) that I can eventually use penetration against the Japanese.

4. The rigid invocation of the "force in being" use of the Allied carriers has clearly made Brad reluctant to venture forth anywhere away from the KB or outside his LBA umbrella. Thus, while he has made great strides in India, he has been totally, completely absent from the Pacific. This has allowed the Allies to develop good defenses of the Aluetians, Midway, Canton Island, and Fiji. Of these, Midway and the Aleutians are of paramount importance given my future plans.

5. I think that the big Allied build up in the Aleutians has Brad's full attention, as it is meant to. I don't have any way of knowing this for certain, but I suspect that Brad's decision making in India is now influenced by the growing (appearance of an) Allied threat in NoPac. If that's the case, the the Aleutians operation has been a crictical operation even though no battle has occurred there (yet).

6. Throughout the game, the Allies have worked hard to position troops, supplies, fuel, ships, and aircraft in harmony with my long-range strategic plan. Despite the havoc in India, this has continued.

So, everything that has happened in the game to this point has been in accordance with Allied plans. But the jury is still out as to whether the plan was fatally flawed due to Japanese success in India. I think I'm going to prevail in India (by prevail I mean holding Karachi/Delhi), but I didn't mean to cut things so finely.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: VSWG

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Allied Reinforcements: I withdrew a bunch of short-timer aircraft squadrons to bolster my political points, and then on the 30th bought 27th Division and a restricted Canadia unit. These were immediately ordered to board transports, 27th bound for Capetown via Balboa, and the Canadians bound for Attu or Adak. I was fortunate that I acted when I did, because I forgot that about 10 zillion ships were set to auto-upgrade the next day. So now half my ships are in the yards for a couple of weeks.

You don't have to transport troops manually between the USA and Capetown. Strat move a LCU to Eastern USA, and then set its destination to Capetown. The unit will disappear, and appear in Capetown approx. 30 days later. Same with planes.

See chapter 8.3.3. of the manual for details.

I am pretty sure this only works with air groups and not infantry. Infantry still needs to be loaded on a ship and moved to Cape Town. Anyways it does not matter much. A transport TF will arrive in Capetown in about the same time as just clicking on the unit. Takes about 30 days for an air group to make the shift. I will check the next time I load a turn.

[ADB123]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: VSWG

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Allied Reinforcements: I withdrew a bunch of short-timer aircraft squadrons to bolster my political points, and then on the 30th bought 27th Division and a restricted Canadia unit. These were immediately ordered to board transports, 27th bound for Capetown via Balboa, and the Canadians bound for Attu or Adak. I was fortunate that I acted when I did, because I forgot that about 10 zillion ships were set to auto-upgrade the next day. So now half my ships are in the yards for a couple of weeks.

You don't have to transport troops manually between the USA and Capetown. Strat move a LCU to Eastern USA, and then set its destination to Capetown. The unit will disappear, and appear in Capetown approx. 30 days later. Same with planes.

See chapter 8.3.3. of the manual for details.

I am pretty sure this only works with air groups and not infantry. Infantry still needs to be loaded on a ship and moved to Cape Town. Anyways it does not matter much. A transport TF will arrive in Capetown in about the same time as just clicking on the unit. Takes about 30 days for an air group to make the shift. I will check the next time I load a turn.

No, it works for LCUs too.