Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Canoerebel]

6/10/42 and 6/11/42

Reading the Tea Leaves: Well, I can't read 'em! Every bit of data and intel I gather can be interpreted different ways. I still have this vague hunch that Brad isn't going to make a try for all of India...but then I see some powerful unit somewhere and wonder if he might be concentrating the biggest part of his army just behind the front lines, where I can't see 'em, giving the appearance that his front line forces aren't particulary powerful. So I continue to play as if he's coming, while also scouring the boards for evidence of his true intentions. I really don't have to "know" for a few more weeks. Once the Marines and 27th Division arrive in Capetown, I need to know whether to send them on to Aden and Karachi, or instead whether to park them (plus the soon-to-arrive UK division) in Capetown for eventual use in the clever and deadly Allied plan.

India: Brad has my southernmost Indian division trapped behind the lines. He's tyring to corral it, but that will take him some time. Losing a division will embarrassing, but if that division ends up costing the enemy a month or two of chasing it around with three divisions, well, that's probably a pretty useful use.

NoPac: The Canadian Rocky Mountain battalion has arrived at Attu and unloaded. I really like having this unit at Attu - it just feels right. Brad and I have a rule that you have to buy restricted units, which of course I've done for this one. There isn't any rule against using Canadians anywhere once bought, but I'll self-impose a rule that they are restricted to Alaska (or perhaps I'd feel justified in limiting them to NoPac - it might be nice, one of these days, to use them in an invasion of the Kuriles or Sikhalin Island).

SoPac: A Kiwi brigade will arrive at Auckland in three days, bumping the AV to about 450. Except for one artillery unit and one EAB, no USA troops have gone to NZ, but I think this place is pretty secure what with most of the Japanese army situated in India.

[Canoerebel]

See map of central and northern India campaign. Some notes:

1) AVs are current - in addition to those given, the Allies have another 1500 AV or so spread between smaller Indian cities and important crossroads and dot hexes.

2) This is not the disposition for the "final defense" of India, if it comes to that. At this time, my plan is to withdraw my forces into three urban hexes for final defense - Bombay, Ahmadebad and Karachi. Each of these three cities should have something between 1500 and 2,000 AV. That will increase considerably in Karachi if Brad crosses the "drop dead" line to trigger Allied reinforcements.

3) Were Brad truly going to take a crack at conquering all of India, I would expect him to want to isolate and destroy that part of the Indian army currently around Cawnpore. To accomplish that, I think he would utilize a "holding force" to engage and "freeze" my troops along the front lines; then he would do one of two things: (a) move a vast army through the lightly guarded interior sections to the south, or (b) engage in a massive ampbhious landing at Surat or that base across the bay. I do not see any signs of Brad doing either, which is what's feeding my hunch - still very tentative, but taking shape nonetheless - that Brad isn't coming for NW India.

[Capt. Harlock]

NoPac: The Canadian Rocky Mountain battalion has arrived at Attu and unloaded. I really like having this unit at Attu - it just feels right.

Well, the highest elevation on Attu is only about 3000 feet (900 m). So I don't think mountain-climbing skills will be called for.[:D] But it does seem reasonable to have troops presumably equipped with cold-weather gear.

[Canoerebel]

6/12/42 and 6/13/42

India: The vanguard of the Japanese force pushing the Allies across northern India is nearing Cawnpore, where the Allies will make a stand (temporary if outnumbered, permanent if not). I should know fairly soon whether Brad is bringing the kitchen sink or if, instead, he's decided against a fullscale assault across the subcontinent. To the south, the Allies are playing mouse-and-cat with the cutoff Indian division. That unit is now moving NE in an effort to scoot between Japanese garrisons, but it might not work. A modest Japanese force will take Poona tomorrow, but isn't enough to threaten Bombay - in fact, unless Brad has more coming, his force there is at risk of being attacked. The Allied airforce is a little more active in India of late, with mixed results. S-46 torpedoed an APD and an AK, and damaged by gun two more AK, at Madras on the 6/11 and 6/12. A rampage of sorts. A bunch of V Air Corps squadrons - bombers and fighters - recently arrived at Karachi. SigInt reveals 7th Tank Regiment at Cuttack on the east coast. I want to see if that unit ends up on the front lines. If so, it would suggest that Brad is still coming. Summary: The campaign in India is still developing, and I don't have a confident feel for the situation yet.

NoPac: Rocky Mountain Battalion finished landing at Attu. A Marine CD unit will arrive in four or five days. That's the last of the reinforcements in the near term. SigInt reveals 301 Infantry Battalion landed at Ketoi Jima, where the airfield just went to level two.

SoPac: Three xAK were not unloading motorized transport at Nadi, so I bit the bullet and moved them to the docks at adjacent Suva. As expected, an IJN sub got one, but the other two finished unloading. A Japanase TF of unknown composition sighted NW of Fiji on the 13th.

Oz: B-17s from Geraldton destroyed five Kates on the ground at Corunna Downs. RO-60 got an xAKL near Sydney. On the 12th, I caught wind of a Glen patrol near Melbourne, so I decided to move most of my combat ships to Augusta. On the way, they tangled with I-9 (no damage done), so I'm going to divert them to Hobart by a long, winding route. I don't want Brad knowing where my big CAs (Portland and Pensacola) are stationed.

Strategic: From SigInt, Ops reports, and cursor intel, it appears to me that Brad is devoting much attention (and engineering units) to work in NoPac, western Australia, and India. This dovetails with the effect I'm trying to create and with the utlimate Allied strategy in the game. I could be misreading things, or Brad could have a sudden epiphany or two at any point during the game, but at this point I'm very, very pleased with how things are going everywhere except India, where I'm still not sure of the ultimate outcome.

[Canoerebel]

6/14/42 and 6/15/42

India: Two-thirds of Imperial Guards takes vacant Poona. The Allies will attempt to prevent base/fort building activity there by bombing (currently a level one airfield). Brad has turned nearby Goa into a major airfield (level four) with a heck of alot of aircraft. It sure is challenging to read all these tea leaves in India. Just as I'm beginning to think Brad will back down, SigInt shows 14th Independent Mortar Battalion on a Maru heading for Madras. Okay, that's a solid indication that he's not backing down. 54th Division is close to Cawnpore and Lucknow. Now let's see if it moves to either base. SigInt says 28th Divsion is planning to attack Karachi. That's the first prep intel for a NW India base.

Philippines: A second IJ deliberate attack at Bataan comes off at 1:1 and drops forts to three. This base, long, long, long out of supply, will fall before the end of the month.

CenPac: Allied recon from Canton Island has long showed two IJ units at Baker Island. SigInt reports that one of these is 85th IJAAF Company. The other is probably a Naval Guard or something of the sort. I have troops (300 AV) prepping for Baker at San Diego, and this is the kind of intel that makes me seriously consider proceeding with the invasion. However, most of the prepping troops are restricted and right now I'm hoarding PP to buy big US units on the West Coast, or reinforcing Indian units arriving at Aden.

Benefits of Foresight: In my game with Miller, I recall the Allies being overwhelmed with engineer units, especially the SeaBees that show up at Port Hueneme on the West Coast. I didn't know what to do with them, and I was afraid to send them to the front lines due to the complete havoc being wrought by Miller's subs and combat ships. In this game, though, I can't get enough engineer units. As soon as they arrive, they depart for the front in what I think is a well-orchestrated effort to secure and build up important bases, and to give the appearance of a growing menace in NoPac. My ability to send the units safely to the front lines is a byproduct of Brad's reluctance (as I see it) to use his combat ships in Indian country. This is because he doesn't know where my carriers are. (At least that's how I'd like to think things are working).

Where the Heck is this Place?: Ops shows Kusaie Island port and airfield both going to level one. I have no idea where this base is. I checked the Kuriles, Volcano Islands, Sea of Japan, etc. and couldn't find it. The base list function only seems to show friendly bases. Do any of you IJ players know where this island is?

[VSWG]

It's between Kwajalein and Rabaul.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, VSWG.

SigInt and Ops reports can be goldmines of information.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Are you running all the Capetown fuel to Perth? It distributes nicely to the rest of Australia. That did not used to work but a recent patch made this work and it really helps.

Not if you are trying to accumulate fuel and supplies at Perth for an offensive. It just evaporates. With Oz you are put in the weird situation of having to build up bases that is not connected to the mainland in order to have any sort of fuel storage. Sidney, a level 9 port is just a pain to use as the Australian industry just sucks up any fuel delivered there.

[Canoerebel]

6/16/42

Brief Intermission Coming: Brad is out of town for 36 hours, so the next update will probably be Thursday morning. In the meantime, I'm using the breather to really look at the map, consider what I need to be doing, and attending to a thousand little details like pilot training.

India: The Allies are shuffling a few troops around. Bombay will receive two more Indian brigades brining her AV to about 1600. I really want to bump that up to about 1900, but haven't figured out how to do so. In trying to read the tea leaves, it doesn't appear that Brad is going for a quick knockout in India and it doesn't appear that he's pulling out. That leaves only one option: he's preparing for a protracted campaign in India. This means I need to attend to reinforcements and supplies. Long range, though, I just can't believe he'd be looking to conquer the subcontinent in late '42 or '43. Won't too much time have elapsed? Won't the Indian units be getting too strong by that point?

Effect on Allied Strategic Plan: As long as Brad doesn't conquer NW India, I'm very glad that he seems to be focusing on India. I want as much of his army concentrated there as possible when the Allies implement their counteroffensive.

SigInt: Report 14th Division is on a Maru heading for Rabaul. Now this is a surprise. What is the ultimate destination and purpose? My best guesses: (1) Brad will split the unit and send each element to critical bases such as Port Moresby and Luganville; (2) he'll use this as a theater reserve, parked in Rabaul and ready for rapid deployment; (3) he's invading Fiji. No action is required by me in any of these cases (Fiji's defenses are set now).

SoPac: I don't want to make any risky moves, but assuming I get the all clear at the appropriate moment, the Allies will occupy Funafuti at the same time they invade Baker Island. If I'm going to do this any time soon, I need to use a bundle of PP to buy restricted units in San Diego. First, though, I need to by an Indian brigade (Eastern Command) that will arrive at Aden in two weeks.

[JohnDillworth]

Not if you are trying to accumulate fuel and supplies at Perth for an offensive. It just evaporates. With Oz you are put in the weird situation of having to build up bases that is not connected to the mainland in order to have any sort of fuel storage. Sidney, a level 9 port is just a pain to use as the Australian industry just sucks up any fuel delivered there.

It seems I get a ton at Capetown and I usually have extra xAK's so I ship it over. It seems to go everywhere except Northern Australia so it saves me from having to run tankers through the Coral Sea. Sydney sucks up plenty, but enough goes up the coast to make it usefull. Anything to keep my tankers out of harms way in 1942.

[erstad]

The base list function only seems to show friendly bases

The Tracker base list allows you to easily find enemy bases.

[Canoerebel]

6/17/42

Tracker: I need to install it (I tried months ago and couldn't figure it out because I'm a computer ignoramus).

India: The two sides are meeting in air-to-air combat over Poona in the first dual air campaign of the war. The Allies are flying from nearby Bombay, the Japanese from nearby Goa. On the 17th, the Allies downed nine aircraft while suffering just one loss. It's too early to know whethere the Allies are ready to go nose-to-nose with Japan over a sustained period. Brad will modify his tactis and keep trying new things, but if he eventually decides that he cannot prevail in the air war in India, how will that impact his plans? Meantime, the Japanese vanguard troops closest to Bombay and Cawnpore have not moved any closer. I assume Brad is getting all his troops in place before moving on the big urban hexes in earnest.

NoPac: Most of 5th Marine CD has landed at Attu, but it will take days to get the big coastal defense guns unloaded there.

CenPac: Repeat SigInt that 144th Regiment is prepping for Canton Island.

[ny59giants]

Tracker: I need to install it (I tried months ago and couldn't figure it out because I'm a computer ignoramus).

I knew you were related to John 3rd.

[VSWG]

You can always google base names... [;)]

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
PnzrB: In Cap-n-Gown's AAR, PnzrB noted that as the Allies he would not engage in any major amphibious operations until 1944. There is a great deal of merit in that idea, and I began this game with a similar idea, though for particular reasons I wanted to shoot for early autumn of '43. This strategy has merit because it minimizes the times the Allies take on Japan at equal or disadvantageous odds. Meanwhile, the Japanese player feels good about things and continues to build up his front line defenses, while also working on his rear defenses. Then, in '44, the Allies can simply bypass the first line of defense and simply overwhelm an interior and critically important locale - Borneo, Luzon, Hokkaido, and Sikhalin Island come to mind. If the Allies haven't lost anything major in '42 or '43, they would have a force of ships and men so powerful that there would be no stopping them, especially if the Allied player acheived strategic surprise through deception. In this game, Brad may force me to move much earlier due to the situation in India, but I still hold out some hope that I can avoid committing to a big op until around September '43.

While I agree with the logic of this approach from a strictly Allied military balance perspective, 99.9% of games where the Allies run and hide until >January 1944 will wind up dropped by the IJ player-and with good cause. PBEM is an application of tactical and strategic military principles, true enough. But it's also a game that's supposed to be fun for both players.

Philosophically, how is this "no offensives until 1944" different than "I wanna wait until I get A-bombs to start an offensive"? Only different by degrees. I would probably drop a game if the latter approach was adopted.

Totally concur...

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Tracker: I need to install it (I tried months ago and couldn't figure it out because I'm a computer ignoramus).

I knew you were related to John 3rd.

Thanks Michael!

[Canoerebel]

6/18/42

SigInt: Received a SigInt report that Japan's 2nd Division is aboard a Maru bound for Truk. This is one of the IJA divisions Brad committed to India - originally taking part in the landing at Diamond Harbor. So this is a critical piece of intelligence - something I've been hoping to get for weeks. It's the first evidence that Brad appears to be withdrawing troops from India (there's a small chance this could be a deception, a possibility I'll keep in mind). It's too early to know for certain, but the Allies may have withstood the great crisis of the game, bending but not breaking.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
Philosophically, how is this "no offensives until 1944" different than "I wanna wait until I get A-bombs to start an offensive"? Only different by degrees. I would probably drop a game if the latter approach was adopted.

Totally concur...

I disagree, at least at this point in our collective understanding of AE, Scenario Two.

Armed with Scenario Two, an experienced and capable Japanese player has a legitimate shot at auto victory. It is therefore within his power to punish any varation of an Allied "Sir Robin" defense or to apply such great pressure that it forces the Allied player to commit to an active defense.

In other words, there is an effective counter to the Allied strategy disliked by Chickenboy and John.

Now, if further experience (both my own and collectively amongst the AE brethren) shows that I am wrong - that there isn't an effective counter to this strategy - then I'll concede the point. But for now I think the strategy I've employed in this game - and that mentioned by PzB in another thread - is legitimate and fair and makes for a heck of a tense situation in 1942.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

6/18/42

SigInt: Received a SigInt report that Japan's 2nd Division is aboard a Maru bound for Truk. This is one of the IJA divisions Brad committed to India - originally taking part in the landing at Diamond Harbor. So this is a critical piece of intelligence - something I've been hoping to get for weeks. It's the first evidence that Brad appears to be withdrawing troops from India (there's a small chance this could be a deception, a possibility I'll keep in mind). It's too early to know for certain, but the Allies may have withstood the great crisis of the game, bending but not breaking.

Hmmmm... set the destination to the fake destination, set a way point near the real destination. Good point. Really throws off the already modest Allied Intel. No way around it I suppose.

[Smeulders]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

6/18/42

SigInt: Received a SigInt report that Japan's 2nd Division is aboard a Maru bound for Truk. This is one of the IJA divisions Brad committed to India - originally taking part in the landing at Diamond Harbor. So this is a critical piece of intelligence - something I've been hoping to get for weeks. It's the first evidence that Brad appears to be withdrawing troops from India (there's a small chance this could be a deception, a possibility I'll keep in mind). It's too early to know for certain, but the Allies may have withstood the great crisis of the game, bending but not breaking.

Hmmmm... set the destination to the fake destination, set a way point near the real destination. Good point. Really throws off the already modest Allied Intel. No way around it I suppose.

Yes, quite easy to fool Allied Sigint that way. But the question is, is that what's happening here ? Is it possible that the division will be used for an upcoming amphibious operation in India ? Or is shipping it faster than using railways to get it to the other side of India ? That's two things you should take into account, in either case he could use the trick described above. Another option is that he loaded up the unit just to unload it again, but with the odds of your SigInt picking that up it seems unlikely he'd use that much time of a division just for the low odds of giving you that useless intel.