Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Canoerebel]

6/27/42 to 6/29/42
 
India on the Ground:  The big Japanese spearhead remains at Poona, though a few units have moved north to sniff for Allied defenses.  I don't have much in the area, but two Oz brigades at Surat serve as a mobile defense force.  If Brad's "sniffers" move on Indore, I'll move the Aussie's there first.
 
India in the Air:  The Allies are really holding their own in the air battle over Poona.  On the 29th, for instance, they achieved nearly a 2:1 victory.  I would really like to maintain the favorable results as that would surely factor into Brad's decision as to whether he can prevail in a sustained campaign.
 
India at Sea:  It will take me about four days to get my picket ships in place.  Until then I'm not taking any chances.  If it looks like the KB won't be in a position to impose a blockade of Karachi, I'll send in my reinforcements without the carriers.  In that event, I may send my carriers north toward Diego Garcia and see if I can time it to catch a secondary invasion.  My carriers will finish upgrading in one week.
 
Reinforcements:  An Indian brigade and a British recce armored unit just arrived at Karachi.  I'm sending these guys to Ahmadebad.  The first of three UK brigades has arrived at Aden.  The other two will arrive in the next few days.  These troops go to Karachi to ensure that I have a quality and stout defense there.
 
Grand Strategic Plan:  For OpSec reasons I am keeping the destination secret.  As noted previously, my hope is to delay implementation until spring 1943, but I may need to move as early as late '42 if Japanese auto-victory appears possible.  Troops are already prepping, and I am working steadily to position them in or near the ports of embarkation.  I have been closely monitoring Japanese base-building activity since the beginning of the game.  There are no indications of serious activity where the Allies intend to strike.  Nearly all of Brad's activity is in places where I want him to be focusing.

[Canoerebel]

6/30/42 and 7/1/42
 
Time flies when you're having fun!

Bataan:  I failed to note that Bataan fell a few days ago - I think the 28th.  This gave Brad another 900 or so points for Allied troops destroyed.  On the other hand, the long seige and total lack of supplies allowed him to reduce the base by using just a handful of troops (nothing larger than a regiment).  Usually, the fall of Luzon frees up boukoup Japanese units for the "next wave," but in this case Brad moved all the major troops off long ago, so at least I don't have to worry about that.

Auto Victory:  I absolutely love this aspect of the game.  It gives the Japanese player something to shoot for - to conceive, organize, and implement a plan to win the game.  Even in Scenario Two it's a very tough task and the Allies have plenty of resources and options to try to thwart the plan, so it brings a great deal of excitement to the game.  It should also be noted that Brad has gone about this in a logical, believable way - invade India and destroy the enemy (as opposed to scouring the map for the highest point bases and then targeting those even if the overall plan didn't make any strategic sense whatsoever).  Right now the IJ lead is something like 28k+ to 8k+.  With the fall of Bataan, Brad doesn't have any more easy pickings.  He has a shot if he can take a base or two like Bombay, destroying large armies in the process, but doing that is going to be very difficult, me thinks.

India in the Air:  Brad appears to have conceded the air battle over Poona (and over Goa), at least temporarily.  The Allies found no opposition the past two days.  Will he reorganize?  Surely he won't allow Allied bombers to hit his ground troops freely?  RN bombers, by the way, are completely useless.  But RN fighters and US fighters and bombers hold their own.  So, guys, if India is at risk in your PBEM, be sure to allocate sufficient US aircraft there.

India on the Ground:  Waiting to see whether Brad will move on Bombay in force.

India at Sea:  Wasp has arrived at Capetown, joing the other Allied carriers.

India Reinforcements:  The UK units arriving in Aden are assigned to Eastern command, which means I haven't had to use PP to "buy" them.

CenPac:  Hence, I have used some PP to free up another US Army RCT at San Diego.  This one is 100% prepped for Baker Island and will serve as the invasion reserve.  Thanks to Smeulders for pointing out that I needed to be aware of disruption to the invasion units since they are traveling such a long distance.  I've been checking them and the level is already about 10%.  So I'll unload at Christmas Island, then reload when they are "good to go."  D-Day will be in three or four weeks. 

[Canoerebel]

India vs. Oz
 
In Scenario Two, an experienced, capable Japanese player has a legitimate shot at auto victory.  To achieve it Japan probably needs to conquer either India or Australia.  A decivisve defeat of the Allied carrier fleet would be a big boost either way.  (Also, it might be possible to achieve auto victory by conquering Hawaii and scoring big against the Allied fleet including carriers, though I'm less certain about that.)
 
Based upon what I've experienced in my game with Brad to date, I suspect that India may be the tougher route to victory due to the large number of troops present and arriving as reinforcements, and the proximity of the protected "ship channels" to Karachi, permitting quick and relatively secure transportation of troops.
 
It may be easier for Japan to impose a blockade against Oz by taking Perth to the west and then a port on the south coast (Augusta, Adelaide, or Portland).  Oz has far less troops and aircraft with which to defend itself and it takes alot of time and political points to get quality troops there from USA or Capetown.
 
Had Brad used combat ships, carriers, and subs to contest Allied use of Oz ports, taking a few southern coast bases early on, and had he then landed 15 divisions beginning around early March '42 (the same time when he invaded Ceylon in our game), I think Oz would have been much tougher to defend.
 
In India, the Allies can oppose Japan with many divisions - I lost one UK Div. on Ceylon.  In India, I had another UK Div. (with a third arriving now), an Oz division (because I suspected Brad might be heading for India), and a the equivalent of about six or eight Indian divisions.  That's alot of troops with alot of urban hexes to hide in.
 
On the other hand, Oz begins with a mishmash of militia and a handful of decent brigades.  It takes some time and risk to get better troops there (the two Oz divisions that arrive at Aden during the first half of '42, and the inexperienced USA divisions that you have to buy).  It might be possible for a very clever, skillful, and aggressive Japanese player to impose a tight enough blockade to permit him to employ his massive divisions against the major Allied bases before reinforcements could arrive.
 
Of course, risks are entailed.  If the IJ player fails to achieve auto victory, the reinforcements triggered by the invasion of the southern Oz (and which arrive in Capetown) are really going to bolster the Allied army somewhere.  Imagine setting lose such an army in Burma.
 
In summary, I think I'd be more worried about Oz as an Allied player.
 
P.S.  I'm not dismissing Brad's chances for auto victory in our game yet, by any means, but rather just contemplating the possibilities of a concerted Oz campaign now that I know that it's secure in this game.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Based upon what I've experienced in my game with Brad to date, I suspect that India may be the tougher route to victory due to the large number of troops present and arriving as reinforcements, and the proximity of the protected "ship channels" to Karachi, permitting quick and relatively secure transportation of troops.

Interesting analysis. It probably wouldn't surprise you to learn that there was extensive discussion of strategic options many months ago in the other AAR.

A question though. Suppose, following the fall of Ceylon, your opponent had, instead of going into NE India/Calcutta, jumped by sea directly to an amphibious invasion of Karachi in April, employing 5-7 largely unprepped divisions? Assume your carriers were where they were, and the rest of the RN/USN the same. How do you think you would have fared by now?

[Capt. Harlock]

RN bombers, by the way, are completely useless.

When going through defended airspace, that's largely true. However, a squadron of Wellingtons, because of their range and payload, can force the Japanese to spread out their fighters over a number of airbases.

Have you thought of converting some Commonwealth units to B-25's?

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
...Suppose, following the fall of Ceylon, your opponent had, instead of going into NE India/Calcutta, jumped by sea directly to an amphibious invasion of Karachi in April, employing 5-7 largely unprepped divisions? Assume your carriers were where they were, and the rest of the RN/USN the same. How do you think you would have fared by now?

I don't fault Brad for going for Ceylon first - he did it quickly, at low cost, and destroyed a British division in the process. By doing so, he removed a large and potentially hazardous "unsinkable carrier" to his rear. This was, in my opinion, an excellent first step towards conquering India.

Since most of the Burma army had already withdrawn into India and was no longer a sure bet to isolate and destroy, I definately think Brad should have gone for the juglar following Ceylon. I think my biggest worry would have been an invasion of Surat, the port north of Bombay, followed by quick moves to isolate Bombay and to severe the roads leading between NE India and Karachi. Employing that strategy, I think Brad could have then used his 15 divisions to destroy the pockets of resistance, which would have been weaker than than the relatively stout MLR I have at the moment.

To answer your question, a direct invasion of Karachi (or Bombay, I believe), would have been devastating if successful. Whether they could have succeeded is another matter - they are easy to defend due to the urban terrain. Preparation failure would seriously weaken the units and lead to big losses during the landings. Plus, an alert Allied player should be able to get a sizeable contingent there quickly to bolster the garrison(s). So I think a direct invasion and conquest of either of those two bases would be tough to achieve, and a failure would be devastating to Japan's efforts.

As for the gambit I feared the most - an invasion of Surat - I had 450 AV there behind four forts. That probably would have given me enough time to hastily organize my defenses at Bombay, Amadebad, and Karachi. But there's a base right across the bay - the name escpaes me - that was only defended by 100 AV. A landing there would have really unhinged my defenses, but I think it would have also triggered the aut0-reinforcements. Note that either Surat or that nearby base would give Brad an airfield that would permit effective reconnassance (and thus teamwork with ships to shut down Allied traffic to Karachi) and, once the base(s) was built, the ability to strike by air. Yikes for the Allies!

Overall, though, I can't say for certain. We'll have to wait and see how the strategy works in another game, though whether any Allied player would play possum like I have is doubtful.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

To answer your question, a direct invasion of Karachi (or Bombay, I believe), would have been devastating if successful. Whether they could have succeeded is another matter - they are easy to defend due to the urban terrain. Preparation failure would seriously weaken the units and lead to big losses during the landings. Plus, an alert Allied player should be able to get a sizeable contingent there quickly to bolster the garrison(s). So I think a direct invasion and conquest of either of those two bases would be tough to achieve, and a failure would be devastating to Japan's efforts.

I'm not sure what Surat gets you at that early date that Karachi doesn't get you better. Losing Karachi takes away the 1-day "wormhole" transit from the Mideast and makes any supplies or LCU reenforcements form there have to stay at sea southbound long enough to get whacked by surface TFs and subs. Taking Karachi fast gives him that recon/search base he needs. Karachi is worth 450 VPs, plus LCU losses there. All of the crossing-the-line reenforcements that come into Aden would have to get ashore south of Karachi, and could get whacked too.

Karachi's urban terrain bonus is only x2. In fact, as was pointed out to me in a sweet "RTFM" PM by a forum regular[:)], there are only three hexes in India with the x4 bonus: Madras, Calcutta, and Bombay. I agree that x4 with unprepped assault troops is hard. But x2, with low CD, and 7 divisions of unprepped troops, and I think Karachi would have fallen before the Mideast or naval forces off-map could have arrived, or marched/railed-in troops from the interior either. (And they'd be pre-war-training Indian Army troops. IOW, lunch.)

Once he has Karachi and you're isolated from the world, he can systematically shut down all of the HI-based supply generation (no fuel, Bombay can be isolated), and force you to defend on LI-supplies only. From Karachi he can work south, or east to Dehli, or do a seapower-based hit on Madras (for VPs and supply, plus pincer south India), or go over to Chittagong and reap VPs from exhausted Burma refugees.

We'll never know until someone tries it. But IMO you got very lucky that he went NE when you refused to bring out your navy.

[Canoerebel]

I don't disagree. Like I said above, Japanese conquest of Karachi would be disastrous for the Allies.

Recognizing that, I kept a fairly strong garrison at Karachi - usually around 600 AV. Too, a landing there would release the auto reinforcements including at least one infantry unit of some strength at Karachi.

I thought, however, that Karachi was a major urban hex. When I look at my map, it appears to me that Calcutta, Bombay, Madras, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, Cawnpore, Delhi, Lucknow and Karachi are all the same color (4x major urban). If that's not the case, I've been basing my defenses on a bad miscalculation!

On the assumption that Karachi was 4x urban, I was more worried about Surat because it wasn't good defensible terrain. A sizeable force landed there could move quickly to isolate both Bombay and Karachi. From there, Japan could take both.

But I'm glad I didn't have to test my theories about either Karachi or Surat!

[CapAndGown]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


I thought, however, that Karachi was a major urban hex. When I look at my map, it appears to me that Calcutta, Bombay, Madras, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, Cawnpore, Delhi, Lucknow and Karachi are all the same color (4x major urban). If that's not the case, I've been basing my defenses on a bad miscalculation!

Check that your eyeglass prescription is up to date. Only Calcutta and Bombay are dark grey. All the others are light grey. Also, hit the 1 key to be sure about terrain since it is not always 100% clear what the terrain is in a hex simply judging by the art work.

[Bullwinkle58]

As was pointed out to me in my RTFM PM, using the "1" hotkey displays all of the terrain codes in every hex. Karachi is a Ul--Urban Light. The three I named are Uh. I too was going by colors off the map legend, but it turns out that there's an app for that. Those codes cross to the table on page 189, Section 8.3.1, for the penalties/ratings.

Edit: Also, it appears my PM correspondent is hoist on his own petard. Madras is indeed a x2, Ul. I have a Transport TF sitting right on top of the Madras code in my game. I just loaded a fresh scenario to see it clearly, and it's a Ul.

Terrain is kind of important. I wish it were a standard part of the base screen, or at least showed in the Base Summary table on the task bar.

[Canoerebel]

7/2/42 to 7/4/42
 
India in the Air:  The air war continues to go well for the Allies.  On the 4th, for instance, the Allies scored about a 4:1 victory, with most of the fighting taking place over Bombay.  For some reason, Brad has his bombers targeting the port facilities there.  The damage done is minimal.  (Why he's chose to hit the port rather than the airfield I can't imagine.)  Brad has shown a decided reluctance to engage in any air battles that don't achieve lopsided victories for Japan, so I'm wondering how the situation over Bombay and Poona will affect his strategic decisions.
 
India at Sea:  I-153 and I-157, stationed near Karachi, picked off three unescorted and empty xAK making for Abadan.  Those are the last unescorted ships I'll use in Arabian Sea.  My picket ships are in place again.  Thus far no signs of the KB.  At this point I'm cautiously optimistic that I can get reinforcements to Karachi without using my carriers.
 
India on the Ground:  6th Guards Division is probing northeast of Bombay, but the big concentration of troops at Poona hasn't moved.  I have maintained my garrisons at Surat and the base across the bay, both of which are regular recon targets, just in case Brad decides to land north of Bombay. (I'm still uncertain whether those SigInt reports that 2nd Division was aboard ships making for Truk were legit or misinformation.)
 
SigInt:  Got a report that 14th Division is located at Rabaul, confirming previous SigInt that they were aboard ships making for that port.  This may be a strategic reserve for Japan's SoPac possessions, or, less likely, a force with which to invade someplace like Suva.  14th Division begins the game in Manchuria, so it's interesting that Brad sent them to the Pacific rather than to India.  SigInt also reports 10,000 troops at Onnekotan Jima.  These two reports, taken together, suggest that Brad is taking an active interest in both NoPac and the mid-Pacific island areas.
 
Tea Leaf Reading:  I have the seed of a hunch that all these things, taken together, suggest that Brad no longer has the resolve to come full bore for India.  At this point it's too early to act on this hunch.  I will continue to send reinforcements to India until I feel sure that the subcontinent is safe.  27th Division (USA) arrives at Capetown in about 12 days.  There's a chance that, by then, I may know better whether the unit is required in India.  If not, she'll remain at Capetown, where I really want to post her for the present.

[Cribtop]

Canoe, my hunch agrees with your hunch. He's got all the easy pickings and VP available in India without assaulting Bombay or crossing The Line. I read the Pacific reinforcements as a force designed to grab a key VP location or two in an attempt at auto-victory. I forgot, has he taken Noumea? Watch the VP hogs in the Pacific IMHO.

[JeffroK]

IFF the game is only about Auto Victory and IFF there are enough VP within reach, is Brad amassing his forces for a last minute assault that wont ive you time to react before he has the Auto Victory??

[Canoerebel]

7/5/42 to 7/7/42
 
For Want of a Nail...:  A Japanese amphibious force is nearing Diego Garcia and is accompanied by the KB.  This is Brad's second effort to take this island, following an unsuccessful effort a few weeks ago. It's little things like this on which the fortunes of war can change.  Had Brad succeeded the first time, or had he just ignored Diego in favor of using the KB to impose a blockade of Karachi - or, even more importantly, to take the island off Italian East Africa - I would be forced to use my carriers to escort the Marine and 27th Division reinforcements to Karachi.  But the KB is far away from these "tender" areas, so it appears that the reinforcement convoys can proceed without the Allied carriers.
 
India at Sea:  At least four subs between Abadan Channel and Karachi (I-153, 157, 28 and 165).  These will extract their pound of flesh, but definately aren't sufficient to impose a blockade.
 
India in the Air:  Just when I was getting sanguine about the Allied air defenses of Bombay, a raid of Oscars just ate the Allied CAP alive.  So the air war is still in a state of flux.
 
India on the Ground:  6th Guards Division is advancing on a dot hex just south of Indore defended by two Aussie brigades and a small Brit armored unit.  The hex is wooded, so I plan to put up a fight.  Allied bombers are targeting 6th Guards without opposition, doing relatively light damage each turn.  No sign of the big IJ spearhead at Poona moving - but Poona is already a level six airfield.  I assume Brad is peparing for a protracted ground/air effort vs. Bombay.
 
NoPac:  Quiet at the moment.  A few small unit reinforcement TFs have made or are heading to Umnak and Adak.  I sent most of the combat TF down south to aid with the Baker Island invasion.
 
CenPac:  The components of the Baker Island operation are still enroute to the staging point at Christmas Island.  I still look for Brad to strike at Midway at some point in the game.
 
SoPac:  9th Sea Bees are two days out of Suva.  I forgot to mentioned that we had a rare surface engagement at Nadi on the 3rd.  An IJN TF led by CA Nachi (I think) and CL Naha tangled with an Allied TF led by CA Indianapolis and CL Mauritius.  Neither side took more than light damage, so the engagement was inconclusive.
 
Jeffk:  I don't think Brad would engage in "point hunting" of that sort.  IE, I don't think he would target a juicy points location for auto victory purposes unless it made sense strategically long term.  The only target that makes sense from both standpoints probably is Fiji.  Nadi has a garrison of 210 AV.  Suva has 450 AV.  Both bases have CD units.  Assuming he doesn't prep, it might take three divisions to have a chance at taking these bases.  That's a tall task since so much of his army is in India.
 
Strategic Signals:  SigInt shows 63rd Army Group at Onnekotan Jima.  Ops reports the airfield at Jaffa, on Ceylon, just went to level five.  Brad seems to be preparing to defend India long term.  That suits me, as that's not where the key battles will take place.  On the other hand, there has been minimal base building activity in the area I want the Allies to hit in '43. 

[crsutton]

Q ball seems to be conducting a good smart campaign in India but he really needs KB in the Pacific. I just don't see how Diego Garcia is worth it as you will be able to take it back fairly soon once his attention is elsewhere. It is fine to take Diego as the Japanese player. However, the strategic mistake is what I think is a misuse of KB. Time will tell.

[paullus99]

At the moment, the KB is the only way he can project the kind of power necessary to move his campaign forward. Unfortunately, as I stated in an earlier post, if he doesn't "close the deal" on India, he's just stuck his arms into a giant tar baby & it is going to result in the kind of attritional campaign that isn't going to end in his favor.

I would find it extremely funny if you did stage a re-invasion of Diego as soon as you found the KB enscounced in the Pacific - that would be very annoying for Q-Ball.

And since India is pretty much the only place he'll be able to pull experienced combat troops to commit against your future offensives, he's really screwed himself in the long-term.

[Canoerebel]

Paullus, you're exactly right.

As noted at the beginning of the game, the Allies want to engage in a big land/air battle in India or Oz.

Unless Brad halts the reinforcements now on the way to Karachi, I don't think he can close the deal in India.

As for Diego Garcia, the only reason the Allies need the island is to serve as a trip-wire for an invasion of Ceylon or India.  Since Brad invaded four months ago, I have no need for Diego now.  I would consider reinvading, but I don't want to draw his attention to the IO.  I want him focusing upon India, NoPac, Australia, and New Caledonia. 

[Canoerebel]

This is a collection of excerpts from early-in-the-war posts covering the period from 12/7/41 to 2/1/42.  It is a very long post that may not interest anyone, but it's something I've been meaning to do for awhile, and something I want to refer back to in the future. (Most of you can just skip right on to the next post unless you're really boored.) It shows two things: (1) the change in perception of the threat to India over a two month period early in the game despite Brad's well-orchestrated Oz deception effort; and (2) how early the Allies came up with a grand strategy, thus allowing me to work on troop, ship, and aircraft deployment and logistics from the beginning of the game. That plan is still in effect.

[center]After the 12/10/41 Turn[/center] 

"Scenario Two is a mess, at least for us Allied players who don't want to engage in pilot training.  IJ air power is awesome through at least the end of 1944 judging by my game with Miller.  The Japanese Army is mighty.  Japanese transports are essentially limitless.  And Japanese ASW and submarines are at least the equal of the Allies.  Add to that the fact that I am playing Q-Ball, who is a very capable, organized, deep-thinking opponent...and I've stepped into a pile of doodoo.

"First, some of the ideas and strategies of the Real War and WitP are no longer applicable.  For instance, wiping out a bunch of KB pilots is no longer a big deal since the Japanse can easily replace them and train them.  Second, Allied LBA production and pilot training are no better than equal to the Japanese and perhaps inferior during long stretches of the war.  So it's counter-productive for the Allies to try to engage in a war of attrition in places like Burma.  Allied aircraft are too few and Japanese aircraft are too easy to replace.

"Putting considerations into my pipe and taking a few puffs suggest to me that the hated Sir Robin strategy may well be the way for the Allies to go in Scenario Two.  Protect the valuable assets and excercise extreme restraint before engaging the enemy...and by extreme restraint I'm talking about late 1943 or so.  That will be like two years from now in real life, given one-day turns, so I have no idea if I can control myself, but I'd be better off if I did.

"Short term, the Allies can carefully brandish carriers when the KB is distant, and I'll do that.  For the long term, the only assets I really want to risk are DDs and CLs.  They are fast and can often get themselves out trouble when they blunder into it.  I don't want to risk CAs and BBs which can't extract themselves from trouble.  I'll use them occasionally so that Miller knows they're around, but by and large the Allies will fight a CL/DD war for a long time...and that's a good thing since the Allies have already lost seven BB and a BC.

"So, for the foreseeable future, the only pleasure I get is logistics and training.  I'm going to be conservative with my ships because, to be honest, it doesn't matter whether you get 200k fuel to Tahiti in costly little convoys over the course of two years, or send just a little there and then flood the place when it's much safer.

"As noted previously, I already know where the big Allied push is going to come in 1943.  Until then, much effort will go toward the logistics to prepare for that actions...and the logistics to prepare for the feints that I hope will mislead my opponent so that I can achieve strategic surprise when the time comes.

"I also have to be alert to the possiblity of auto-victory.  My first concerns are Hawaii and Oz; my secondary concerns are India and Russia.  Not much I can do to help Russia (except build forts), but I am already planning for the defense of the other three. 

"So...I don't blame anybody if they push the snooze button and check back in around, say, June 1, 2012."[align=right]
[/align]

[center]After the 12/14/41 Turn (new commentary in bold and italics)[/center]

We're a week into the game. Since this is my second Scenario Two game (the first being in November 1944 now), what am I going to do differently?

1. Convoy System: I'll use larger, escorted supply convoys. In Game One, I started by using small, unescorted, low value TFs, but they got chewed alive by subs. Excellent idea - escorted convoys are almost never successfully attacked. Unescorted convoys that happen across enemy subs are almost always successfully attacked.

2. No Rushing to the Front: I won't push fuel to the front as hard as I did the first time. My tankers were just torpedo magnets and there isn't really a need to stockpile large quantities early. Works very well. Instead of fuel convoys, I have used escorted AOs placed at strategic bases to refuel long-distance TFs returning to West Coast from Oz. Love how this works. Now that it's July '42, I am beginning to set up regular fuel convoys to safe locations.

3. Not Contesting Parts of the Front: Q-Ball is going to push for Darwin, Port Headland, Noumea, and probably some of the islands like Suva, Pago Pago, Palmyra, and Midway. I believe I can turn penetrations in those areas to my advantage later in the game, so I won't fight hard there. Instead, I want to concentrate on beefing up the garrisons at Oz, Ceylon, and Hawaii to thwart the possibility of an auto-Victory by Q-Ball. Early efforts will also go into strengthening some garrisons in the Aleutians, Diego Garcia, Addu, Tahiti, and Christmas Islands. I have followed this pretty closely. I should note that, early on, I was most concerned about Oz. As Brad began moving on Oz in a big way, however, I became equally concerned about India to the point that I kept one of the two reinforcing Oz divisions there.

4. Fake Major Axis of Advance: Q-Ball knows I have used major invasions of the Kuriles, Sikhalin Island, and the DEI in previous games. Consequently, he'll garrison these bases and see to their defense. As we get well into 1942, the Allies will engage in activity suggesting a threat in these regions. I've focused on this objective in NoPac; not so much in the DEI...yet. Brad is most concerned about Timor/East DEI, though, as shown by his build-up of his west coast Oz bases.

5. Careful in Burma: Q-Ball will at least consider invading northeast India. I won't take a chance on having my Burma army too far forward and therefore isolated. I will get them back far enough to see to the defenses of Calcutta, Chittagong, and (eventually) Akyab. I got my units out of Burma per this plan, but ended up losing some anyway when they took the least optimum routes of retreat when Akyab and Chittagong fell.

6. Supplies and Fuel: Supplies have never been a problem in Game One, but fuel has been scarce from time to time. I'll work on setting up a better infrastructure. Pago Pago and Tahiti don't make great fuel dumps because their small port size restrict loading and unloading in quantity. They should be employed, but I need to develop a better system.

7. Pilot Training: I'm trying to get a handle on this even though I don't enjoy it. Q-Ball does enjoy it and, given the fact that this is something like his third game, he's got too much experience and talent to let him achieve a major advantage in this department. I still don't like pilot training, but I'm working it pretty hard.

[center]After the 12/17/41 turn[/center]

...I don't think I have any specific knowledge about Q-Ball's tendencies that will assist me on the operational or tactical levels, but I do know that he's a careful, meticulous, capable player that will be very tough to beat. From a strategic standpoint I can nearly guarantee that he will move on Darwin, Port Headland, Noumea, and Midway. He'll also choose another major attack vector - could be anywhere, but I am most concerned about Oz and Hawaii for no particular reason yet. So far, I've been right about three out four, and I think Midway eventually will be targeted.

[center]After the 12/29/41 Turn[/center]

One of the greatest assets the Allies have in the game can be Japan's uncertainty as to where the first big push (or axis of attack) will come, be it late 1942 or '43. Japan has to adequately defend a long perimeter that stretches from the Kuriles to Malaya and Sumatra. At any one point, the Allies can concentrate forces and overwhelm the enemy - at least until the enemy can prepare a counterstrike.

I want Q-Ball to spread his forces as much as possible. Consequently, the Allies will engage in raids throughout the game along this entire perimeter. I will also try to deceive the enemy by showing a "build up" of power in a variety of locations.

When the time comes to attack, the Allies intend for the first big push to be massive, overwhelming, and potentially crippling. Such an offensive can occur at any of five or six locations on the map, but I already have my preferences in mind.

Still sticking to this plan. Instead of employing raids, though, I focused on taking and building up the western Aleutians.

[center]During the 1/12/42 Turn[/center]

Oz Under Seige: The Japanese are landing at Broome and the KB has returned to a point just off the coast at Townsville. With Port Moresby and Horn Island just falling and Japanese bombers hitting shipping around Darwin (four more xAKL just went down), things are getting really hot. With these dire developments and with CA Canberra having just gone down in a blaze of glory duking it out with CV Akagi, you can imagine that in real life there would some heightened worry in Australia. Into thise would steam the Queen Elizabeth carrying some fresh-faced, good-natured, and ribald Yanks. This should be quite an event...but it hasn't happened yet. I detailed a DD and AM from Sydney to rendezvous with QE to provide ASW escort, but the meeting ending up slowing down QE so that she won't arrive until tonight. Arg.

Japanese Grand Strategy: From the outset of the game, my two main concerns have been Hawaii and Australia. A committed, well-thought-out Japanese campaign targeting either is a possible route to Japanese auto-victory. At the moment, things are very quiet in Hawaii, though I'm attending to matters there as best I can. But Oz certainly looks hot. I'm not as worried about India, CenPac, New Zealand, or the Aleutians only because they don't represent auto-victory threats (India would except I don't think Japan has a chance of conquering her). I won't be so sure about India in future games!

Alllied Grand Strategy: I would love to duke it out with Japan in Oz (or India, though I don't think that's likely as noted above) as long as I don't get overwhelmed. A land campaign in which the Allies can employ lots of aircraft from a multitude of fields should be beneficial. Moreover, I would love to keep Q-Ball focused on Oz since I have grand plans - long range plans - plans for late 1943 - in a place far, far away. Short term, though, I need soldiers in Oz and that means all eyes are on the QE tonight... Yes!

[center]During the 1/15/42 Turn[/center]

Oz By Gosh: Now the Japanese are landing at Portland Roads on the NE coast of Australia. There an Allied DD making a dash for safety from the Torres Strait duked it out with the Kako/Furutaka combat TF, survived, but then was dispatched by RO-66. Q-Ball is enveloping northern Oz in his evil pincers. What I don't know is whether this is the "real thing" or an elaborate ruse designed to distract me from a real target like India or Hawaii. Thus far, the bases he's taken are useful to him for recon purposes, but he hasn't pushed far enough to prove that he's really coming hard. So I'm trying to attend to Oz while not forgetting that he can put a hurting on me elsewhere. I think this was the first time I expressed my incipient concern about India.

[center]During the 1/16 and 1/17/42 Turns[/center]

Singapore and India: The Allies have 760 AV behind three forts at Singapore. My fondest hope is that the garrison might last until the end of the month. Once Singapore falls, Japanese shipping (including nasty subs) can move into the Bay of Bengal freely. Brad can shoot to invade Ceylon or the Chittagong area as early as February. Colombo currently has 600+ AV, Trincomalee 100+, Chittagong 300, Calcutta 300, Diamond Harbor 100.

[center]Before the 1/18/42 Turn[/center]

Brad is that most dangerous of all Japanese players: bold but careful; fast but methodical; and very experienced.

This is his third AE game - one as Allies and two as Japan (plus plenty of WitP experience). He knows exactly where the Allies are weakest and where he can push with relatively little risk to his forces. He's got everything time to a T, and he knows his opponent about as well as possible.

That said, my only concern at this point is avoiding auto-victory. Do that and preserve my carrier corps and the Allies will be fine in '43 even if Japan has Ceylon, New Zealand, the Aleutians, and the Line Islands. I intend to play cautiously until a good opportunity arises to strike hard. Until then it will be nibbling at the edges.

As for auto-victory, I think there are three routes Brad might choose: India, Australia, or Hawaii (the latter would need additional work, I think). I'm satisfied that India can take care of itself given troop levels, so my main effort will go to reinforcing Oz and Hawaii. All I need are political points to purchase restricted troops! I have withdrawn or disbanded all West Coast squadrons eligible to this point, but PPs gained were meager.

[center]During the 1/20/42 Turn[/center]

Japanese Intentions: Still no clear sign whether Brad is targeting Oz, India, Hawaii, or some other locale for his attention. I am so worried about these three "biggies" that nearly all my reinforcements are heading there. On that note, the elements of the Oz division that recently arrived at Aden promptly boarded transports that will stop at Colombo before making the long, hazardous journey to Oz. When the second Oz division arrives at Aden in a few weeks, my current plan is to devote those units to India. India is enough of a concern to warrant one of two Oz divisions arriving in Aden.

[center]Before the 1/21/42 Turn[/center]

Here's a look at Allied grand strategy:

1. Avoid Japanese auto-victory and it's red-headed step-child, the one-sided carrier battle loss. Yes!

2. Protect Ceylon, India, Hawaii, and Australia with as many ground troops as I can. Everything else is expendable at this early point in the game (including New Zealand, New Caledonia, the Line Islands, and the Aleutians).

3. Avoid unnecessary wastage of transports, in part by keeping them in safe ports early in the game, and in part by utilizing larger, escorted convoys rather than low-risk, unescorted, single ship TFs.

4. Train - arg! - pilots. Nearly every squadron on the map is training and I think I understand the difference between level 50 experience and level 70 skill, how to train pilots to those levels, and how to move pilots around once they are trained. Try not to commit pilots until experience is 50 and the needed skill is 70. Do not engage in an air war of attrition unless the results are satisfactory (unlike WitP in which any results were satisfactory because the Japanese air force was eroded by each pilot lost).

5. When possible, seek or accept opportunities to effectively attrit Japan's achilles heel - her navy. Celebrate every sinking of a CA or a CL as though it were a national holiday. Japan has precious few of these ships and they don't respawn.

6. Eventually, to create noise in areas that aren't actually targets (ie, diversionary tactics).

7. By the summer or autumn of 1943, attack the enemy in an unexpected place - or at least in a place where by deception or skill or surprise the Allies can achieve overwhelming numerical superiority long enough to take control of the region. Up to that point, Q-Ball will have developed his perimeter defenses. They will be well-thought out, but of necessity they will be spread out as he has to be prepared for a major thrust everywhere from the Kuriles to the Bay of Bengal. Achieving overwhelming superiority will be possible for the Allies at any one place, but once the Allies commit to that vector the enemy will be able to adjust and reorient defenses so that the advantage will eventually disappear. Further progress will be slow and painful. So that first attack had better be (a) massive, (b) successful, (c) in an area vital to the enemy, and (d) accomplished in a manner that permits the Allies to successfully defend the lodgement, build it up, and move forward.

[center]During the 1/22/42 Turn[/center]

Japanese Intentions: So, where will Q-Ball head next? Right now all the activity is around Oz, which is ominous indeed. This could be the real thing or, in the hands of a clever deceiver, noise to disguise his real objective. There hasn't been any enemy activity to speak of around Hawaii (including the Line Islands and Midway), nor any particularly threatening around India and Ceylon. All three of these are getting as much attention as I can give at the moment.

[center]During 1/24 to 1/26/42 Turn[/center]

Japanese Intentions: I still don't have a good feel for where Q-Ball will head next. Oz seems the logical target given all the attention given there, but I have a hunch the target mgiht be India and/or Ceylon. Hawaii is my third guess.

[center]During 2/1/42 Turn[/center]

Ceylon/India: Japan hasn't done anything to suggest that an invasion in this region is coming, but I'm still very suspicious. Another Australian division arrives at Aden in a few weeks, and I think I'll send it to India. Unless, that is, Brad does something in the meantime to confirm that he is focusing on Oz rather than India. Nothings going to happen until Singapore falls, but that won't be long now.

[JeffroK]

Jeffk:  I don't think Brad would engage in "point hunting" of that sort.  IE, I don't think he would target a juicy points location for auto victory purposes unless it made sense strategically long term.  The only target that makes sense from both standpoints probably is Fiji.  Nadi has a garrison of 210 AV.  Suva has 450 AV.  Both bases have CD units.  Assuming he doesn't prep, it might take three divisions to have a chance at taking these bases.  That's a tall task since so much of his army is in India.

I think the way the game has progressed has been gamey, using the knowledge of the lines which trigger reos to avoid them is, IMVHO, extremly gamey.

So if, as you mention in your post, Brads approach is to try for AutoVictory, what does he have to do to achieve it?

You aren't going to risk your CV's so those VP are safe.

Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart, Adelaide & New Zealand are probably safe as would be the Hawaiian Chain.

So, would a careful building up of IJA units in India, behind the lines so you cant see them, be capable of smashing through your lines and picking up the VP for both Bases and destroyed LCU? How close would this get him to AV??
Any Allied reos triggered will have to get past a blockading KB or Surface Fleet, can he move fast enough to beat them to Karachi/Bombay etc

If he still has 12+ Divs in India, I cant him capable of anything else without a major relocation of LCU into now contestable waters, a major change as against doing it in early 42.

Your setup in SOPAC looks OK, but if a big enough army is brought along they will fall.

KB is still a major force, but it cant occupy bases so this means a slow amphib TF trailing along.

Given the need to relocate from India, I cant see anything like this happening for a few months.

This game is now interesting, I believe Brad has kicked himself halfway through the door, he should have already kicked the door in and taken Karachi/Bombay sooner and maybe left the east coast at a lower priority. I also am waiting to see how you get your forces into motion and his reaction.

[Canoerebel]

7/8/42 to 7/10/42

Jeffk: Well, that's a worrisome thought. If Brad were going to try for victory in that manner, he would need to take Socattu (the island off Italian East Africa) to eliminate reinforcements and supplies making it to Aden and Karachi, plus he probably would need to position the KB or combat TFs near Karachi to close the port. I think it's a long shot. Most of the reinforcements going north from Capetown have already left and the last will do so in about eight days. As for supplies, well, that's a bit of a crap shoot. I would also think that Brad must feel like troops and supplies have been pouring into Karachi. Even with a multitude of divisions at his disposal, he's got to be feeling some pressure. But, there's one ominous development that seems to dovetail with your assessment:

Socattu Island: For the first time, Brad shows an interest in this key island - I-154 nails a supply xAK. If he really intends to give India and auto-victory a go, I think taking Soccatu would be critical for him. I already had part of an Indian brigade on the way from Mombasa, but it won't be enough to stop a serious effort on his part. Soccatu is pretty close to Mombasa, so I may send my carriers there in case a chance to strike develops.

Reinfrocements: The Marine tanks and artillery unit are already nearing Aden. The two Marine regiments will be transiting the narrow passage near Soccatu over the next few days. There's no way the Japanese carriers could reach the area in time to prevent that from happening. But 27th Division (USA) is seven days out of Capetown. From there, it will head north to Mombasa and then on to Aden. That passage could be difficult. Once I have 27th Division past Soccatu, that's it for reinforcements from Capetown. From that point forward, the passage would only be needed for supplies. I'm not sure if Abadan/Aden has sufficient supply potential to keep India going, but I doubt it.

SigInt: Calcutta went to level eight airfield (totally unncessary for Brad to be buidling up this field unless he's doing so for victory points). On Sumatra, Medan airfield to level four and another (Logash or something of the sort) to level one. Japanese garrison at Ketoi-Jima (one of the Kuriles) at 5,688.

Sub Wars: Allied subs have been awfully quiet - lots of hits, but all duds. Flying Fish, however, used her guns to sink an xAKL near Hokkaido. I-170 got an xAKL near Perth. A TF with BB Colorado tangled with I-4 near San Diego, sinking the sub.