cap_and_gown(j) v witpqs(a) - no witpqs

[FatR]

Maybe you should fill squadrons on carriers that are going to be in repair for two months or more with pilots from replacements, put them on land and start training them right away. They won't be excellent by the time their ships leave drydocks, but they will be passable.

[janh]

Hmmh, isolating Ponape and bagging some of their supply-loaded convoys sounds very tempting.  Interdicting the more rearward LOC to CONUSA would actually be more important, and could indeed lure out the USN again.  Though I bet your opponent will not risk his CV's for a long time, and that you could earn your money's worth by splitting your two CV groups to operate in two different regions -- if you can keep them fast on the move, and unpredictable. 

Another thing I would consider is some merchant raiding that would force your opponent to add heavy battlewagons to his convoys as escorts, and thereby force him to spread is forces out.  Could you organize some 1-3 TFs with only a CL, or CA, that go hunting like the famous german "ghost cruisers" in WW2?

Also, do you have an idea where your opponent would likely now have sailed his cripples?  SF? LA? Pearl? Seattle?  Would a very bold port strike at max range (8 hex) with your CV groups be tempting, even at the risk of loosing more of your presently short DB and TB?  I would bet your opponent wouldn't expect you to be so bold and risky, and wouldn't be quick enough to react before you withdraw?

[krupp_88mm]

im in favor for being slightly more aggressive, i think it may be possible to mount more than one offensive, or split carriers up even more for a few small raids in places where you are mostly sure his carriers wont be operating for awhile.. also with his bbs hurting may be a good time for surface raids as well now the time to do it if possible, just my two cents

[CapAndGown]

Nov. 9, 1942

One group of carriers has left the Home Islands and will be sailing past Marcus tomorrow on their way to the seas between Johnston Island and the Marshalls. This group includes the Hiryu and 5 Unryu's as well as the Ryujo and Zuiho. They will meet up with a replenishment TF and my fast BB group east of Marcus. There I will form two air combat TFs, each with 3 CVs and 1 CVL. They will then follow the the surface combat group into the battle zone with the replenishment TF tagging along.

The Soryu, Akagi, and Kaga are waiting on more plane reinforcements before setting sail. They only have half the dive bombers and torpedo bombers they could potentially carry and cannot take on reinforcements again for at least 3 or 4 days. Even after their 7 day wait expires, I will still need to wait for the Judy pool to build up. It looks like I will need about 5 days for enough Judy's to be produced to fill out these three carriers. Once these carriers are ready, they will join the rest of the carriers west of Johnston Island.

Meanwhile, my slow carriers set sail yesterday from Sorebaja to go raiding in the Indian Ocean between Australia and Capetown. This group includes the Hiyo, Ryuho, and 5 CVEs. They are being accompanied by two AV which will carry out the air search duties. I had to leave one CVE behind at Sorebaja since I did not have enough dive bombers to fill out its air wing. On Dec. 1 four of the CVEs are scheduled to receive their own air groups of Kates.

This dive bomber shortage is rather pressing. We are currently building 90 Judy's a month. I can't really see increasing that since that would also mean increasing the number of Aichi engines produced, and those will become obsolete in February when the D4Y3 model becomes available. Once that plane comes on line, I will be able to greatly expand Judy production since it uses an engine I am already producing in large numbers.

Torpedo bombers are not such a problem. If nothing else, I could down grade my carrier Jill squadrons to Kates, though I would rather not. Right now, land based torpedo bomber groups are using Jean's, Mabel's, and Kate's, while the carriers get the Jill's. The B6N2 is especially desirable because of its excellent service rating as well as its longer range which could possibly be useful for long range port attacks. (Hey, that just reminded me, I have a squadron of Judy recon planes in the Home Islands I could load onto my CVEs in order to take a look at Perth. I wonder how well that place is guarded? I have another Judy recon group already loaded on the Hiryu. I am going to use them to take a look at Pearl Harbor and Johnston Island.)

[janh]

Hmmh, what do you expect in Perth, or in general on the OZ east coast?  I would guess you'd maybe find a lot of AV, planes, PT boats and a few merchant vessels.  Perhaps a few tankers, APs and maybe a few CL/CA and DD.  But nothing really big I suspect.  After this battle, your opponent might have consolidated in Pearl and on the WC.  

I assume by now even the slowest of his cripples will have made it to SF, SD, Seattle or LA?  Do you think he has some badly damaged CV in Pearl? If so, then for sure his intact ones would be waiting there as well, covering the islands?  In your position, I guess I would be tempted to recon some West Coast bases with large yards, and try to find the cripples...

[CapAndGown]

Nov. 11, 1943

Been a while since I heard a sub sink, but one went down during the night phase today. So that looks like 12 subs altogether sunk by my AC.

The Tanker supporting the KB were spotted today while still over 22 hexes away from the nearest allied base. Maybe he will think I am shipping supplies into Wake. Still, I would like to have the element of surprise. I would love to catch some allied TKs.

[CapAndGown]

Nov. 15, 1943

Not much happening. My carriers are now in position between Johnston Island and the Marshalls. Witpqs knows they are there and so will not be sending any shipping out there until they go away. The question is: what will he do to make them go away?

Right now he seems to be redirecting every sub he has to try to intercept. This last turn we ran into the Porgy and hit it pretty hard with a depth charge. Pretty soon every hex in the central Pacific will have a sub waiting for me. I really don't like the idea of hanging out in torpedo alley. I need to balance the benefits of cutting the allied supply lines with the threat posed to my carriers. At least this means shipping around the Bismarks and Truk is not nearly as threatened as it was. Supply runs of my own will be less likely to be molested now and bombardment runs over to Ponape will be less likely to run into a sub.

I would hope that such an overt display by my carriers sitting squarely on top of his LOC might prompt witpqs to consider bringing out his own carrier force as a counter. I feel like a Matador waving my cape in front of a very angry bull, hoping to get it to charge! Unfortunately (?), his current carrier strength may be so reduced that he declines the challenge. Then it will be necessary to decide whether we should stick around and brave the subs while cutting off the Marshalls, or retire and find another use for our carriers.

Meanwhile, another group of carriers, in this case the Hiyo, Ryuho, and 5 CVEs, are lurking west of Exmouth hoping some supply convoy bound for the northern Australia ports comes lumbering by.

Recon of Johnston Island seems to indicate that island is currently overstacked with allied troops. It may be that sigint revealed that we had units prepping for an invasion there. Based on my recon, however, it does not look like I will proceed with the invasion.

A bunch of reinforcement brigades are now arriving in the Home Islands. I am going to be transporting them down to the DEI where they will relieve regimental garrisons at various bases. The parent divisions of these garrisons will then be brought back together and rebuilt and will become my reserve. I had a reserve division at Rabaul and one at Kendari, but they were taken out of reserve and sent to Truk after the allies invaded the Marshalls. Also, the four divisions garrisoning the Marianas had been intended as a strategic reserve. They have now been redesignated as front line garrisons with a primary task of defending those islands. That leaves me with only one reserve division at Singapore. That is not nearly enough. So the arrival of these new troops will allow me to start building my reserve back up to an acceptable level.

Another contingent of carriers, the Soryu, Akagi, and Kaga, sets sail next turn to join up with the rest of the carriers east of the Marshalls, assuming I decide to maintain the blockade.

If you have thoughts on alternative uses for the KB besides blockading the Marshalls, let me know. As I indicated, I don't like hanging out in sub-infested waters, but I would like to tempt the allies out for another carrier duel and I wouldn't mind cutting into the fuel levels of his forward bases.

[CapAndGown]

Just to give a visual idea of the position of my forces and the allied forces, here is a map:

[paullus99]

Since his subs now have a good chance of hits=explosions, where is your closest base in case of needing to detach damaged units? All he needs to do is get lucky a couple of times & you could be in a world of trouble if you can't get the damaged units to a good location (before getting back to the docks in Japan).

Is the risk really worth it? Can you take advantage of this opportunity in some other way? Because the longer you hang out there, the more system damage you're accumulating as well.

[vicberg]

Actually, since you have the KB out there...what ASW can you muster? You could do significant damage to his sub fleet while his carrier are unable to respond. Where did his carrier retreat to? PH? Take an indirect route and launch a port attack. I'd suggest concentrating everything on the east. Mini-KB...counter attack on marshalls....regain the initiative....it won't last long.

[veji1]

Exactly, you should set all your KB DBs and TBs to ASW for a turn or two, see what happens. Some people might say this is gamey, but he is swarming you with Subs, you know that there are almost no chances of him going for you with his CVs, so go for it and blast a few subs out of the water...

[janh]

Maybe it is highly unusual, and would historically have prompted High Command to ask for an explanation of the TF command,  but I wouldn't see why it should not have been possible.  Technically, there is nothing speaking against setting them on ASW if you know that there is no naval threat.  Maybe not all of them.   I wouldn't call that gamey.  It is actually more now testing a "what if" with this engine.

[veji1]

In WITP it was considered quite gamey because of the power of air ASW. You could flush a dozen subs in a couple of turns doing this. But I suppose that with all the green pilots in the KB now, it wouldn't yield such extravagant results and damaging 3/4 subs in a turn might make him think a bit..

[CapAndGown]

Nov. 17, 1943

Still no sign of the the U.S. carriers even though they have now had ample time to react whether they are based at Pearl Harbor or in the Marshalls. The one possibility that has me most concerned is that they are right now chasing down my replenishment group which is passing by Wake. A Hellcat showed up as an ops loss today. So that might indicate the carriers are out there somewhere. So I wonder if instead of taking on my CVs directly, the U.S. CVs might be going after my gas station. I gave the replenishment group orders to head back to Marcus at full speed. Another replenishment group is already passing by the Marianas on it way to join up with the KB.

I have some of my carrier AC on ASW right now, but I don't want to put too many on ASW patrol in case the enemy CVs should show up. Also, their main job is simply to spot the subs and keep them submerged. I don't think any of my carrier AC could actually hit one since they have not trained on ASW. I believe AE and WitP are different in this regard. In WitP all that mattered was experience, so that KB planes could be death on subs because of their high experience level. But now experience appears not to be the major factor. Instead, the skill number seems to be more important. (as a side note, I did hear a sub sink during the replay, so one of my AC managed to score a hit. no doubt one of my Helen groups.)

A garrison unit I had at Nauru was withdrawn a couple of turns ago. Witpqs seems to have noticed this fact and may even now be getting ready to send a group to invade the island. I spotted a TF heading SW from Ailinglaplap that looks suspicious. I am getting some surface assets into position so they can intervene if the allies make a move in that direction.

The allies have an incredible amount of shipping in the Marshalls. 50 ships show up at Ailinglaplap, another 60 at Kwajalein, and 40 at Kusaie. This does not even include the ships that are in TFs. Mostly these are LCI/LCTs. But there are also cruisers and destroyers there, and perhaps even some battleships. The allies also have hundreds of AC and dozens of ground units scattered across those islands. I am hoping that by stationing the KB on the allied LOC to the Marshalls I can cause the allies a severe fuel/supply shortage there that will entice them into a carrier battle to reopen the LOC between Pearl and the Marshalls. (Another 3 CVs (Akagi, Kaga, Soryu) are heading south to join up with the carriers already patrolling the seas west of Johnston Island.)

The SS Jack took at shot at an xAP carrying part of a division to Guam. Fortunately, the torpedo was a dud.
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Sub attack near Guam at 101,85

Japanese Ships
xAP Palau Maru
E Amakusa
E Sanae
xAP Kowa Maru
xAP Ussuri Maru
xAP Hoten Maru
xAP Dairen Maru
E Miyake
E Mikura
E Manju

Allied Ships
SS Jack

SS Jack launches 6 torpedoes at xAP Palau Maru

In looking over my reinforcement queue to see when more squadrons arrive that can upgrade to the George, I am finding that the IJNAF is scheduled to commit mass suicide on July 10, 1944. Squadrons that will not arrive for another 3 months will have to be withdrawn on that date. One has to wonder what the point of getting all these squadrons is if you have to turn right around and withdraw them? Especially since they almost all arrive under a restricted command and so would need political points to be freed from the Home Islands. I also wonder why the scenario designer felt it necessary to severely limit the number of squadrons that can upgrade to the George and/or Jack. What was the thinking behind that? Well, based on that, I have come to have a new appreciation for the necessity of researching the A7M2 Sam in a big, big way. As soon as current R&D factories are done researching the planes due in January and February, I am going to switch a lot of them over to the Sam.

The allies captured Mandalay last turn and Katha this turn. They are just about to Magwe. My troops in Burma are in southern Burma. As the allies get nearer, everyone will eventually withdraw to Moulmein. That base has level 6 forts, a level 8 airfield, and level 2 port, so it is malaria free, and well dug in. The bases around Utradit and Raheng are still being built up to size nine airfields. That will make a nice little cluster of size nine airbases right next to each other. They will be extremely hard to shut down!

[CapAndGown]

Nov. 18, 1943

This was the Maxwell Smart turn: it was not carriers that tried to intercept my retreating replenishment group, it was a surface group. Apparently some destroyers. They missed the oilers by just 80 NM! If they stick around, or go hunting one more turn, they are going to have a nasty surprise as the Kaga, Akagi and Soryu group is heading directly towards them.

Nothing much else this turn. My other carrier group southeast did not spot any subs today, but they did shoot down 5 PBYs.

Added: I forgot to mention, the allies captured Magwe and Meiktila this turn.

[CapAndGown]

Nov. 19, 1943

The turn opened with an attack on one of my DDs escorting the KB by the SS Mingo:
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ASW attack near Johnston Island at 153,120

Japanese Ships
DD Kawakaze, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
BB Kirishima
BB Haruna
CL Naka
CS Mizuho
E Kamo
E Otori
DD Akishimo
DD Hatsuzuki
DD Teruzuki

Allied Ships
SS Mingo

SS Mingo launches 6 torpedoes at DD Kawakaze

That really bites. The Kawakaze is a Shiratsuyu class DD. Those are some decent DDs. Oh well, better a destroyer than a battleship. That is their job, after all.

The allied surface group that went hunting for my replenishment group was still only 3 hexes south of Wake this turn. When our planes spotted it we got the audio message "send main body." I am not sure if that is reserved for BBs, or whether CAs will generate that message as well. Either way, something substantial seems to be in the task force. So I am going to race the Kaga/Akagi/Soryu group south at full speed to see if we can't sink some more allied capital ships. By my calculations, my carriers will be 12 hexes from the nearest allied air base, so we will not have to worry about dive bombers or torpedo bombers. Some Mitchells might show up, but I feel that is a risk worth taking. I also calculated that if the allied surface group retreats at a nine hex pace, which seems likely, we will be within 8 hexes of it when the sun comes up. For some reason, they only moved 6 hexes this last turn. That may be because they stopped to refuel. If, instead of nine hexes, they move ten hexes next turn they will be out of range of my carriers. That is unfortunate, but sixteen hexes is as fast as my guys can go with the Kaga.

[CapAndGown]

Nov. 20, 1943

Nothing happened this turn. My attempted intercept failed. The allied surface group traveled 12 hexes instead of the expected 9. They must be some fast destroyers. The Akagi/Kaga/Soryu group is going to move to the northeast where I will try to attack some PT boats at an atoll on the extreme northern edge of the Marianas. The rest of the KB will move northeast towards Wake to bring all my carriers together and allow them all to refuel from the replenishment group heading southeast from Marcus. I am still dodging a lot of subs. I may have to give up on this blockade rather than risk my carriers.

Added: Nasty sys damage from the full speed run. 8 sys, 5 engine for the Kaga. Somewhat less for the Akagi and Soryu.

[CapAndGown]

I just had a nasty thought: what if the allies have some carriers still in the Marshalls and they decide to charge my group just south of Wake? Yikes! Since I put my Zeros on naval strike, any bombers I sent out would, I think, be unescorted. I would still have a CAP, since I set the fighters to 30% CAP. But I am not sure I would have any escorts for my bombers.

Well, if I lose a bunch of carriers here, I will look really stupid after my success at Ponape. [8|]

[CapAndGown]

Nov. 21, 1943

My fears proved to not come true; no sign of the allied carriers. At the very least this patrol by the KB east of the Marshalls has definitively proved that the IJN has decisive carrier superiority right now, else the USN would have come out to challenge us. Not bad for late 1943.

Our Zero's did strafe the allied PTs. Apparently not a lot of damage, though. Only one squadron participated. Not sure why the others stayed home.
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Morning Air attack on TF, near Taongi at 136,107
Weather in hex: Heavy rain
Raid detected at 28 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 21

Allied Ships
PT-253, Shell hits 3
PT-137, Shell hits 1
PT-254, Shell hits 2
PT-135
PT-138, Shell hits 2
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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Taongi at 136,107
Weather in hex: Heavy cloud
Raid detected at 11 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 21

Allied Ships
PT-253, Shell hits 4
PT-136, Shell hits 3

I have some patrol planes at Tarawa and the allies have bombed that base twice now trying to shut down the airfield there. So I decided to move in some Nick's to see about putting a halt to that. We managed to shoot down 2 B-24s and another is listed as an ops loss
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Morning Air attack on Tarawa , at 136,128
Weather in hex: Light cloud
Raid spotted at 41 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 14

Allied aircraft
B-24D1 Liberator x 6

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-24D1 Liberator: 5 damaged

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 2

I have now decided on an evacuation of the Gilberts. Those troops out there are likely to be isolated and allowed to wither on the vine, accomplishing nothing for me. I have fragments of those troops at Rabual, but they are useless unless the parent formation is destroyed. That is unlikely to happen if the allies decide to simply bypass them. So I am going to pull them out and reposition them where they can add to my inner defenses. There are several SNLFs, some garrison troops that will upgrade to full-fledged brigades, and some aviation units out there and I can use all the troops I can get. This evacuation can be run in conjunction with my attempt to blockade the Marshalls. The carriers, which are now just north of the corridor between PH and Kwajalein will move back south again to keep the blockade going and then, once the evacuation ships are in place move to support the evacuation. From there they can move back north once again onto the allied LOC before heading back to the Mariana's to rearm, refuel and refit.

[CapAndGown]

Nov. 22, 1943

To quote another player, "Bollocks!" Three torpedoes. Three! [:@] Plus a fuel storage explosion. I was shocked when I found she was not sunk.
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Sub attack near Wake Island at 146,99
Japanese Ships
CV Kasagi, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
CLAA Tatsuta
DD Yayoi
DD Isokaze
DD Maikaze
DD Natsushio
DD Makinami

Allied Ships
SS Hake

SS Hake launches 6 torpedoes at CV Kasagi

As it turned out, Kasagi has 53 float damage (17 major), only 4 engine (1 major) and 17 sys. She also has 1 point of fire. That is somewhat worrisome. That 1 point could possibly get out of hand. Or another sub could find her. Fortunately, the detection level on that TF is 0 right now. But there is a good chance I will lose her. There are almost no subs around Truk right now. Witpqs probably has over 100 subs chasing my carriers right now. Another sub ran across my replenishment group. In this case, however, the escorts were able to plant one solid hit on the sub.

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Sub attack near Wake Island at 141,96
Japanese Ships
E Tomozuru
CL Oi
AO Tsurumi
AO Shiretoko
AO Notoro
E Yurijima
E Saishu
E Takashima

Allied Ships
SS Sand Lance, hits 2

SS Sand Lance launches 6 torpedoes at E Tomozuru

Well, this settles it. I am leaving. The allies just have way too many subs while the Japanese have almost worthless ASW. If this had been a Japanese sub, it would be dead right now. Instead, the Hake gets away scott free. I have already lost one DD. There is a good chance the Kasagi is a goner. And at least one more carrier may be hit before we clear the area. Before we leave, however, I am going to launch a port attack against Wake with my Jills. Recon seems to indicate that Midway is being used as a forward sub base with an AS, some ARs, and an SS (probably being repaired). There are not that many guns listed, and the number of fighters does not appear to be too high, perhaps around 30. I could be all wet and my recon is badly off. But I will give it a shot. 3 groups of Zero's will sweep the place while the Jills are set to naval attack with a secondary mission of port attack from 9k feet. Zeros are set to escort at 25k feet. Perhaps they will come in ahead of the raid as sweepers.

In other bad news, the allies came in with a ton of stuff to Tarawa. They swept the place with Corsairs, and followed up with B-24 strikes. My Nicks, unfortunately, were set to 15k feet so stood no chance (especially with land based radar not working). 19 were shot down, 2 were ops losses, and 2 were destroyed on the ground.

Finally, a squadron of Helens I moved to Abemama flew off to attack a TF next to Maleolap. I had wanted them to attack some barges at Ocean Island. but they were not spotted this turn and I forgot to set the range on the Helens, so they ended up flying unescorted to within 40 NM of a major allied base.

My plans for an Evac of the Gilberts may need to be reconsidered. I still want to do it, but I will need to find another way to get the carriers there than through the sub-infested waters between Johnston Island and the Marshalls. Of course, no matter where we go the allies will have between 4 and 5 thousand subs. But if we can get in and out in a hurry before they have time to react, we can at least reduce the threat level. At any rate, the KB is going to need to disappear for a while to bring its max detection level back down.