Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Canoerebel]

7/14/42

Fuel: To answer the question from Vettim, Japan got the oil facilities at Palembang and Balakpan in pretty good (not great) condition. I assume Brad is stretching his fuel delivery system and fuel stockpiles given the KB's long presence around India, but I really don't know. I've never played as Japan, so this is an unknown to me.

Sub Wars: Along those lines, Shark got a TK near Hokkaido on the 13th and S-47 got an AO at Goa, India, on the 14th. After an initial flurry of successes during the first month or two, Allied subs have had alot of bad luck - several score hits by duds. Japan's subs have had what I might term light success - quite a few scores, but nearly all against empty or supply-toting xAKL and xAK.

Surat: While typing my previous entry yesterday, it became crystal clear that it makes all the sense in the world for Brad to invade Surat. Doing so will sever the land supply line to Bombay, and if Brad lands a stout army, he can advance toward Karachi. At one time I had 450 AV 100% prepped at Surat. That's changed as I have shifted troops around. I currently have 300 AV with another 150 on the way and I might send another 150 from nearby Ahmadebad. Unfortunately, none of these units are prepped properly. I have a CD unit and four forts there.

Karachi: What if Brad landed five divisions or so at Surat and then moved on Karachi? I have 700 AV at Karachi at the moment (with additional troops in other bases that I can call on with short notice). A British brigade is about to arrive at Karachi with another to arrive in less than a week. Any move "across the threshold" will trigger the reinforcements including at least one brigade 100% prepped for Karachi. 5th Marines is 83% prepped for Karachi and will arrive in Aden in a day or two. So Karachi's defenses are about to increase significantly (as long as the KB or combat ships don't shut down the port). Brad would really need two vast armies - one to keep the big Allied army in check at Bombay and another to deal with Karachi. I don't think he has enough to succeed, but he might not know that.

Bombay: Some 8 or 9 IJ units have arrived with another 13 or so on the way. I'll bombard tomorrow to feel out the strength of the Japanese. More importantly, it will tell me how much Brad still has "out there" to use in other gambits such as a move on Surat. The Allies have 2,500 AV at Bombay - a mix of low- and medium value Indian troops and some very good Australian and British troops.

SigInt: 11th Division reported prepping for Perth. I get Oz-prep reports fairly often, but these are dismissed entirely. Brad doesn't have enough to threaten Oz - in part because three USA divisions are present (including one at Perth).

[Canoerebel]

7/15/42
 
Reinforcements:  The UK brigade and recce unit unloaded safely at Karachi, boosting that city's AV to 860.  Next on the List:  Another UK brigade plus Marine tank and artillery units will arrive over the next week.

Bombay:  The IJ army consists of five divisions and two artillery units.  The Japanese bombarded to poor effect - IJ artillery lost a bunch of guns.  A single Allied unit bombarded to good effect.  Question:  is there any reason not to bombard as long as I'm getting results?  I know bombardments can raise enemy unit experience, but I "assume" the IJ divisions are already at quite high levels.

Flank Movement:  Another IJ army appears to be moving north from Poona toward a dot hex currently held by about 350 AV including two good Aussie brigades.  I'll send more as I don't want to get flanked.  I can probably hold against two divisions, but if the IJ force is stronger than that then I'll have to prepare a second line of defense further back.  My bombers are set to hit the advancing Japanese to see if I can pick up any intel as to force composition.

Accounting for IJ Divisions:  I can account for eight of the fifteen IJ divisions known to have been in India in the recent past.  At Bombay:  12, 38, 48, 5, and Imperial Guards.  On the road to the northeast, 6th Guards Division.  At Allahabad (near Cawnpore):  4.  In NE India and Burma:  33.  That leaves roughly seven division out there - they could be moving north to flank Bombay (hence my desire to get intel by bombing) or they could be part of an amphibious force bound for Surat.  If I can pinpoint about four more divisions, I'll know whether there's a realistic chance for an amphibious assault.  That, in turn, might allow me to free up some of my reserve units to commit to the front.  Then, at last, I can begin planning to outflank the enemy.

The Key Division:  Weeks ago I got two separate SigInt reports that 2nd Division, last seen in Diamond Harbor, was aboard transports bound for Truk.  No way Brad would withdraw 2nd if he was really intent on conquering India.  On the other hand, if 2nd shows up somewhere like Surat or Inhore, then I know Brad went to elaborate steps to deceive, and I can deduce that India truly is the target. 

Surat:  450 Allied AV are present with another small unit or two on the way.

CenPac:  SigInt that 51 Naval Guards are prepping for Canton Island (early SigInt reported 144 Regiment doing the same).  I have good F-4 unit reconning Baker Island, showing two units totalling about 2,500 men.  A TF of unknown composition sighted at adjacent Howland Island.

Other Mysterious Sightings:  IJ TFs south of Adak Island and west of Midway.  I don't think either of these are amphibious in nature.  Probably scouting expeditions.

[VSWG]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Question:  is there any reason not to bombard as long as I'm getting results?  I know bombardments can raise enemy unit experience, but I "assume" the IJ divisions are already at quite high levels.

Bombarding increases your supply consumption. If you've got enough supplies at Bombay, go for it.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Itdepends

Just select any ocean hex as the destination for your off map task force- you may even be able to set it as a way point to control your exit point. I normally just set an ocean hex and set "remain on station"- pick the ships up as they enter the map.

Daniel

I believe I've seen players refer to using the waypoint system to do this, but I didn't want to propose that since the manual doesn't go that way and I've never tested it.

I think you could also set Karachi as the home base when inserting the TF into the off-map system, with a western sea hex as the destination. That way, if you forget to hand-manage it, it will still head for Karachi once it pops out.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Itdepends

Just select any ocean hex as the destination for your off map task force- you may even be able to set it as a way point to control your exit point. I normally just set an ocean hex and set "remain on station"- pick the ships up as they enter the map.

Daniel

I believe I've seen players refer to using the waypoint system to do this, but I didn't want to propose that since the manual doesn't go that way and I've never tested it.

I think you could also set Karachi as the home base when inserting the TF into the off-map system, with a western sea hex as the destination. That way, if you forget to hand-manage it, it will still head for Karachi once it pops out.

Good advice. The other important thing to remember is that the "Destination" is what determines the map entry hex. Just for example, if you set a Destination of Pearl Harbor, and a Waypoint all the way down at the lower-right corner of the map, the TF will enter the map at the hex horizontal with Pearl Harbor, then travel down to the waypoint, then back to Pearl Harbor.

It would be nice (and more useful) if Waypoint-1 dictated the map entry point (when waypoints are defined), but it's actually the Destination.

[Canoerebel]

7/16/42

"Wormhole Errata: Thus far I've mainly sent ships directly from Abadan to Karachi by the shortest route. Occasionally I use a waypoint at the nearby north edge to lessen exposure to subs. I have recalled quite a few TFs in the Abadan channel without incident. Also, most of the time I do not have any transports at Karachi. I limit my runs to reduce exposure. Having juicy targets there all the time would surely draw Brad's attention.

Japanese Divisions: Allied bombers found two additional divisions north of Poona - 1st and Guards Tanks Division. So now I know the whereabouts of ten divisions (five at Bombay, three several hexes north of Poone, and two doing garrison duty in NE India or Burma). I think that leaves Brad with about five to "play" with (the actual total being uncertain since he might have brought more to India or possibly, though highly unlikely, extracted some).

Allied Carriers: The Allied carriers are on the move from Capetown to Mombasa. There are three potential uses: protect the island off Italian East Africa from invasion, escort 27th Army Division transports through that stretch of open ocean to the Aden Channel, and/or escort 27th and the two Marine regiment transports from Abadan to Karachi when the time comes in about a month. It is possible, and preferable from my point of view, that none of these conditions kick in. I'd rather keep my carriers hidden for awhile yet.

CenPac: Still a Japanese TF of unknown composition at Howland Island, adjacent to Baker. The Baker invasion troops have unloaded at Christmas. Disruption incurred during the journey from San Fran ranged from minimal to very high. Infantry wasn't badly affected, but artillery and tank destroyers were. The troops begin loading aboard transports tomorrow. D-Day perhaps 10-12 days away. Many of the support and escort ships have taken station to the south to prevent Brad from seeing a large concentration at Christmas and thereby drawing clever deductions.

[Canoerebel]

7/17/42 to 7/19/42

India on the Ground: Two more UK brigades arrived at Kirachi, with a third three or four days out. 5th Marine Regiment is a few days out of Abadan with another regiment further back. 27th Division (USA) is nearing Mombasa. I've been weighing whether or not to reveal the American units to Brad - doing so might discourage him, but if I hold them back I might be able to spring them at a propitious moment. The Japanese army north of Poona has pulled back a bit - so Brad has three divisions there and five at Bombay, but doesn't seem to be doing anything at the moment.

India in the Air: The Japanese are winning the daily fighting over Bombay, but the Allies consistently score in ops losses and destroying enemy aircraft on the ground.

India at Sea: Socatra (island off Italian East Africa) just got part of an Indian brigade. No sign of the KB since the Japanese invasion of Diego Garcia several weeks ago.

CenPac: All Baker Island invasion ships have completed loading at Christmas Island. The ships are all moving SW to a rendezvous point. In about two days, these ships will move NW, passing close to Canton Island on the way to Baker. D-Day is about 7-10 days away. Still a Japanese TF including at least one xAK at Howland Island. Also, Rufes from Baker are flying over Canton. I don't know if Brad's "spidey senses" have picked up on the threat to Baker, or if Japan is preparing to invade Canton Island, or if it's something totally different. The Baker Island invasion force: 145 RCT, 164 RCT, 159 Motorized RCT, 102 Combat Engineers, 4 Field Arty, 837 Tank Destroyers, two AA units, 225 Base Force. This should be massive overkill against the 2,500 troops reported by recon, but I don't want to mess around and get bogged down here.

[JohnDillworth]

India in the Air: The Japanese are winning the daily fighting over Bombay, but the Allies consistently score in ops losses and destroying enemy aircraft on the ground.

I think the ops losses are planes damaged by AA that are writes-offs when returning to base. Land AA works better than ship AA. If you can still rail stuff into Bombay might as well load it up with AA units.

[Canoerebel]

I have several AA units in Bombay and the railroad to the north is open. But I hesitate to bring in more than two or three AA units. I remember that there were real concerns about "flak traps" in WitP that led to House Rules permitting no more than three in a hex. So, to avoid the possibility of overkill, I've limited myself here.

As for losses, last turn Japan scored 3:1 in a-2-a kills, but overall the Allies came out on top something like 15 IJ planes destroyed to just 6 for the Allies.

[Cribtop]

Re Baker Island, IMHO massive overkill is always a good plan for the US. It worked in real life, right?

[JohnDillworth]

I have several AA units in Bombay and the railroad to the north is open. But I hesitate to bring in more than two or three AA units. I remember that there were real concerns about "flak traps" in WitP that led to House Rules permitting no more than three in a hex. So, to avoid the possibility of overkill, I've limited myself here.

Well no one can say you are less than fair. WITP is a different game. WITP did not have the lopsided Japanese production advantages. He gets alot more planes than you do. INRL don't you think the allies would be dumping all the AA they had into the single city undergoing attack? Will your opponent send less aircraft to attack your carriers because naval AA is borked? I would not consider this gamey

[Smeulders]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

7/17/42 to 7/19/42

India on the Ground: Two more UK brigades arrived at Kirachi, with a third three or four days out. 5th Marine Regiment is a few days out of Abadan with another regiment further back. 27th Division (USA) is nearing Mombasa. I've been weighing whether or not to reveal the American units to Brad - doing so might discourage him, but if I hold them back I might be able to spring them at a propitious moment.

This is an interesting question, but I think revealing them would be best after all major reinforcements have arrived. He might try and strengthen his blockade of Karachi when he sees what's entering that port, which might be painful if the 27th Division is still under way. Once he knows that there are significant amounts of American troops in India he might very well decide he won't be able to capture India, seeing as he already has to throw the better part of his army against a single strongpoint. This might prevent some bloody battles and allows you to preserve more of your valuable Indian, Aussie and British LCUs. On the other hand, if you show him now that he's unlikely to make much headway in India he might just shift forces around and get more VP somewhere else, while you are in no state to retake lost ground in India. Keeping the Americans hidden thus has the advantage that Brad might continue a futile offensive, keeping his troops away from more profitable ventures. You can then throw you American reserves in the fray in India just before something bad happens, but after Brad has lost a lot of time. I'd go for the second option.

[Canoerebel]

You're right - that's the debate in a nutshell.

I've also considered using the American units as my "take the offensive" force. I think the British and Indian troops are sufficient to hold off the Japanese, so the American units might allow me to move forward and threaten some part of Brad's army with envelopment.

Another factor is that I want the Japanese in India as long as they don't win the war. IE, if I can hold the line in India, it's much better to have the Japanese army way off there rather than in the areas I want to hit. So in a weird way I don't want Brad to become too discouraged in India!

Weighing all these things is challenging and fun.

P.S. I owe you a big thanks for the tip to check my combat-loaded troops to see if they were accruing disruption on the long trip from San Diego to Baker Island. They were, so I unloaded them at Christmas, allowed them to recover, and then reloaded them.

[Canoerebel]

7/20/42

Air Wars: The Japanese downed nearly a dozen P-39 in an ambush northeast of Bombay, but Kittyhawks at Coen returned the favor by decimating a Nell raid.

India on the Ground: A contingent of troops from the three IJA divisions north of Poona is using a "yellow path" in an attempt to interdict the rail line leading north from Bombay. I think this contingent is one + division - too strong for me to dislodge from the rail when they arrive. Instead, I'm sending about a division worth of troops behind the Japanese to see if I can threaten their own supply line.

CenPac: Still two more days before the Baker Island amphibious and support TFs rendezvous SSE of Canton Island. D-Day estimated at seven to nine days.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's the third time I've seen "wormhole" used in recent days and the first time it's been characterized as gamey.  I take it that this term and the "Karachi/Aden" channel have been much discussed in Brad's AAR.  I do not understand the position that the use of this supply channel is improper or gamey.  I don't have any choice in getting ships to and from Aden and it certainly gives Brad some advantages too.  He knows right where my ships will be and he can position there subs (which he's done often), combat ships (which he hasn't done yet), and the KB (he's done that twice).

I was responding to this: "One comment: I philisophically have a problem with any player putting too much force along a map edge. It is taking advantage of way too much knowledge as to where convoys will appear. A few subs is not a problem in my mind but parking KB off Karachi seems gamey to me."

Of course using the off-map system isn't gamey. It's game. But the effect of the Aden to Karachi mechanic designed in is that the Japanese player has no chance to intercept except for the very last bit of the transit. Thus, if he wants to intercept, he has to hang around the edge of the map, with the KB or otherwise. Objecting to placing forces on the edge of the map is nonsensical IMO.

I wonder how AARs would go if the Japanese player could attack CT, Aden, or Abadan? It was certainly possible in RL.

No I don't agree here. If a player has the ability to park KB to block the Karachi run then that is effectly saying the he controls the Indian Ocean. And if Japan had KB there in real life, then they would have had cut the all of India off by sea. Considering QBall's success in India so far, closing the Aden to Karachi lifeline is not unrealistic.

However, I do agree that there are time when playing near the map is a bit problematical and should be avoided. It really used to be a Japanese exploit in WITP but with off map movement, I don't think it is as much of a problem in AE.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

No I don't agree here. If a player has the ability to park KB to block the Karachi run then that is effectly saying the he controls the Indian Ocean. And if Japan had KB there in real life, then they would have had cut the all of India off by sea. Considering QBall's success in India so far, closing the Aden to Karachi lifeline is not unrealistic.

To reiterate one more time: If the KB is "parked" it may be engaged by the Allied player. If the Allied player chooses not to do so he should accept the consequences. There is no rule, official or culturally here in the forum, that forces the Japanese player to accept a Sir Robin strategy. If the Japanese are willing to accept the disadvantages of placing their primary offensive weapon on the edge of the map--where, BTW, they have no abiity to see what's coming down the chute from the Mideast--then they get whatever advantages accrue from that risk. If that means control of the IO, so be it.

The combined USN and RN have the ability to take on the KB at this point in this game. If they choose to decline they have no cause to carp about KB placement.

[Canoerebel]

Here's the situation in western India as of 7/20/42.

I think the "Battle of India" is developing. The Allies have backed up a long way, but finally have a defensible postion and the troops to defend with.

About 300 AV in reinforcements have just arrived at Karachi, with another 750 AV set to arrive over the coming days and weeks (27th Division is still seven days out of Mombasa, so it probably won't make Karachi for at least three weeks).

[Canoerebel]

7/21/42 to 7/23/42

India: The Japanese have enveloped Bombay, but don't have enough to take the base without engaging in a very long and successful siege. Meanwhile, Allied reinforcements continue to arrive at Karachi unmolested - 6th UK is now on the ground, following 5th UK a few days ago. 5th Marines just made Abadan. I've divided the transports into two TFs to reduce the risk of disaster. The first TF departs for Karachi tonight. The Allies continue to lose the dogfights over Bombay and vicinity, but B-17s even the score with effective and unopposed airfield strikes vs. Poona.

CenPac: D-Day at Baker Island is no more than three days away. I have a tradition of blundering right into hornet's nests, so I'm on edge about this move. It appears that Brad has evacuated one of the two units at Baker, meaning he either had a hunch or just felt like the island was too exposed. If Brad hasn't already sighted the TFs, which ended the last turn just SE of Canton Island, he will tomorrow.

[VSWG]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

5th Marines just made Abadan.

[&:] Why not save some time and send them from Aden directly? Abadan is a detour.

Also, you've mentioned several times that you route your convoys from Capetown to Aden (via Socrota) through Mombasa, but you can move ships directly from Capetown to the top left map corner.

[Canoerebel]

I like having more control over the convoys by staging them through Abadan rather than sailing directly from Aden to Karachi. I've been splitting up convoys and occasionally I'll recall one in transit (without incident, I might add). It's been working well.

As for the passage in the western Indian Ocean, my TFs don't actually "visit" Socatra - they pass through the nearby channel to between the island and the African continent.