Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Canoerebel]

7/24/42

CenPac: D-Day for Baker Island will be the 26th. My ships are fairly close, but my experience is that they have to be really close to begin unloading on a day they move first. I've configured the invasion this way: two DDs take station two hexes west of Baker to serve as scouts (and hopefully to draw enemy air attacks); a small bombardment TF led by one old BB will hit the island and retire; the combat transports will be accompanied by a stout CL/DD force; CVE Long Island will take station two hexes east to provide what little LRCAP she's capable of putting up (utilizing the Marine F4F squadron aboard). Minelayers and transports carrying some support troops will accompany Long Island. Brad's patrols definately sighted the invasion force today, if not before. But whether he's seen this coming, and whether he's concerned about the possibility of Allied carriers, remains to be seen.

India: The ground campaign around Bombay continues to develop. Tomorrow, the Allies will try an important attack on a solo IJ unit (1/3rd of 6th Guards Division, I think) north of Poona. The Allies have two Aussie brigades, a Brit recce unit, and a big Brit armored unit. If the Allied force of 450 AV can knock aside the 6th Guards detachment, then the flank of the IJA force severing the railroad north of Bombay is threatened. This is a very fluid situation. I'm sending more and more troops to this flank area, and I bet Brad is too. This is where I'm likely to reveal the American units at some moment considered propitious, although I believe that date is still a month away as the troops are still in transit all the way from near Mombasa to just about to debark at Karachi (advance echelon of Marine tanks and arty).

[Canoerebel]

7/25/42

Two small but significant steps forward:

Baker Island: The Allies landed at Baker Island a day earlier than expected. First, BB Mississippi engaged in a successful bombardment. Then landings went like clockwork, and there wasn't any opposition. Brad was busy withdrawing his 51st Naval Guard garrison by air transport, so the unit didn't put up much of a fight. The Allies took the island, then moved forward a PBY unit from Canton. A DM TF will lay mines tonight. An ACM will also take station here. Most of the transports will stop unloading and will begin re-loading the invasion force - I want to pull out all the ships tomorrow. Although Baker is just an isolated nub on the periphery of Japan's defenses, it will prove important if it gets Brad's attention - if he thinks that CenPac outposts like Kwajalein could be targets in the not-too-distant future.

India on the Ground: There was an important little battle in a hex well to the north of Poona, where Japan's 6th Guards Division/C was protecting the flank of the IJ units moving to cut communications and the rail line between Bombay and Surat. The Allie army (two Aussie brigades, two Brit armored units) attacked at 3:1 odds, inflicted fairly heavily casualties, and pushed the enemy back. As more Allied units are arriving in this area, I think Brad has to be concerned not only with the sizeable Allied garrison at Bombay and the fairly stout garrison at Surat, but also the security of his flank.

India at Sea: I-165 and I-153 picked off two supply xAKs making the run into Karachi.

Reinforcements: The Marines have landed! Well, it's just a small advanced cadre, but part of a Marine tank unit and part of a Marine artillery unit have arrived at Karachi. The rest of these units plus two Marine regiments and a parachute battalion should be arriving in stages over the next two weeks.

Japanese Divisions: SigInt reports 54th Division near Benares. That accounts for eleven IJA divisions now - five at Bombay, three north of Bombay, two in NE India, and one in the Burma/India region. I still want to "find" one or two more before I declare NW India "safe" from invasion, but it's beginning to look highly unlikely that Brad has enough troops in reserve to do something major. If I can just pinpoint one or two more, I should be safe in moving forward a division from Karachi.

SigInt: 2nd Mobile AA is on a Maru bound for Calcutta. Combined with similar intel over the past weeks and months, this suggests that Brad intends to stay and fight in India. I really, really hope that's true, because the Allies can afford a ground war as the game draws on, but even more importantly many IJ units will be pinned down there while the Allies are moving elsewhere.

Jap BBs: Saury encountered BBs Kirishimi and Hiei close to Kobe.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I have several AA units in Bombay and the railroad to the north is open. But I hesitate to bring in more than two or three AA units. I remember that there were real concerns about "flak traps" in WitP that led to House Rules permitting no more than three in a hex. So, to avoid the possibility of overkill, I've limited myself here.

As for losses, last turn Japan scored 3:1 in a-2-a kills, but overall the Allies came out on top something like 15 IJ planes destroyed to just 6 for the Allies.

You need not worry about that in AE. I have used five and six flak units in hexes heavily bombed by Japanese air. Land based flak is better than naval but you won't be able to create flak traps like in WITP. As long as your opponent respects the flak and does not fly too low, he will take losses but not too extreme. The greater benefit of flak is that it does throw off aim and lessen Japanese hits on the target. Basically, it works they way it should. The Allies get lots of good flak units in India. I would not hesitate to use them wherever needed, especially in light of the massive Japanese airforce in scen #2

[Canoerebel]

7/26/42 to 7/28/42

India on the Ground: The Japanese reacted as hoped to the defeat of 6th Guards/C contingent north of Poona. Brad has at least one division, probably two, moving north. The Allies currently have 750 AV in this hex with an Indian division about to arrive, so two IJA divisions won't be sufficient. With these moves, the railroad from Bombay to the north is open again. An Allied armored unit is advancing down the RR to re-establish hex control so that supplies will flow. I am growing more confident that Brad doesn't have the ability to both besiege Bombay and win the battle for his flanks. The arrival of additional Allied troops would make this even more likely - and it looks like more troops will be on the way for two reasons - reinforcements and the ability to draw down rear-area garrisons.

Reinforcements: A big convoy with USA reinforcements will unload at Karachi tonight, so it is critical that no Japanese combat TF arrive tonight. By tomorrow, most of two Marine regiments will be ashore. Far to the rear, the 27th Division transports just arrived at Mombasa. I've divided this into two TFs to reduce the threat of destruction. The first of the two will depart for Aden tonight. Brad has posted a sub in the straights between Socatra and Africa (I-10 claimed an empty xAK), so I'm going to swing to the east of Socatra. I'm worried about a carrier raid out this way, but I have a line of picket ships.

Japanese Divisions: The position of 14 IJA divisions is known after SigInt reveals 18th/B Division at Benares and a clash down south includes part of 52nd Division. Disposition of known IJA divisions: Bombay (12, 38, 48, 5, Imperial Guards), north of Poona (6 Guards, 4 Guards, 1, Guards Tanks), Benares (54, 4, 18), SE India (52), and NE India/Burma (33). That leaves 2nd Divsion unaccounted for (previous SigInt showed it on a Maru bound for Truk, but I've been worried this might have been a deception). Brad might used PP to bring additional divisons to the theater, but I don't think he could have enough to pose any real threat of amphibious invasion of Karachi. I plan to draw down the Karachi garrison from 800 AV to about 500 AV, and to move the excess forward.

More SigInt: 65th Brigade is aboard a Maru bound for Padang on Sumatra. This piece of news bothers me because Brad is paying attention to one of the areas for which I have future plans.

Baker Island: After re-loading all "excess troops" including two of the regiments involved in the landing, the transports, escorts, combat ships, and CVE Long Island departed and are nearing Christmas Island. The troops will go to Pearl Harbor where they'll begin prepping for a new destination - possibly Marcus Island. The Baker garrisons consists of 164 RCT, base force, and one AA unit.

[Cribtop]

IMHO the actions on the Bombay flank are very important and could represent the IJA's high water mark in India. I believe the question facing you is whether you reveal US troops and counter-attack the flank in force in a matter of days or weeks or whether you choose to use UK forces only to stabilize the lines on Bombay's flank, being satisfied with keeping the LOC to the city open.

IMHO the answer to this question depends on what is to be gained by attacking now vs later. In short, you may have kept the supplies flowing into Chattanooga. At what point do you storm the heights? Hope you like the analogy, btw. Sorry for casting you as the Yankees but it is what it is. [;)]

[paullus99]

I would hesitate to expose more troops (especially US troops) to bombing before you can establish a measure of air-superiority. You don't want to overcommit & have Q start pulling back too soon - you want him to stay committed as possible, while you prepare your offensives elsewhere.

Don't make the same mistake that the Germans made in WWI - they were too aggressive in counterattacking the French offensives into Alsace-Lorraine, which allowed them to pull back & make the reserves available to counterattack at the Marne. If you can keep forcing him to fight in place, it still gives him the impression that he's stronger than you & it will keep him committed.

[Canoerebel]

You guys (Cribtop and Paullus) have just described the options I'm debating.

How and when I use the American troops operationally depends on three strategic considerations:

1) Do I need them to stave off a Japanese conquest of India (the possibility of such a crisis seems to be decreasing now).
2) Use them to "show" Brad that things are going to be even tougher in India than he had thought, thereby persuading him to back down (useful only if the outcome is still hanging in the balance and I am worried that he might commit enough units to tip things in his favor).
3) Is there a chance of isolating and then destroying a large number of Japanese troops?

If the Allies can either destroy a large part of the Japanese army or entice Brad to remain committed in India much longer than is provident for him, I will have won an important strategic victory. Those are two very different objectives requiring vastly different use of troops.

[Capt. Harlock]

With these moves, the railroad from Bombay to the north is open again. An Allied armored unit is advancing down the RR to re-establish hex control so that supplies will flow. I am growing more confident that Brad doesn't have the ability to both besiege Bombay and win the battle for his flanks. The arrival of additional Allied troops would make this even more likely - and it looks like more troops will be on the way for two reasons - reinforcements and the ability to draw down rear-area garrisons.

Sounds like we have our Gettysburg -- troops on both sides are marching to the sound of the guns.

What's the reaction to the seizure of Baker Island?

[Canoerebel]

Yes, Gettsyburg and Lookout Mountain can both be used as excellent analogies to different aspects of the India campaign at present. This will be the decisive battle in the campaign.

Brad didn't do anything with respect to Baker Island, as best I can tell. It's possible he was leary of the Allied carriers being present and chose to back away (he knows fighters were present because the transports he used to evacuate part of his garrison were intercepted). If so, that's another important benefit of my game-long "carrier force-in-being" strategy. Had he known my carriers weren't present, he might have committed his combat ships. A major IJN victory there would have been trouble given the current point spread and threat of auto victory.

[cookie monster]

I would wait until you can clearly defeat him in battle before showing your strength. His troops in India in 42 is good because they aren't digging in elsewhere. Its costing him fuel and supplies to keep India going, because he cant take India he is therefore weaker than he could have been.

[Durbik]

Given the VP gap we're witnessing here, my humble question is: any possibility to win the game for the Allies? Even if Q-ball won't achieve auto victory in 1943, isn't that possible in 1944? He still holds a large chunk of India... And no final word said there probably. So what are the chances?

I know about your super secret operation brewing, and I'm guessing it's target... But will it be sufficient to stop Japan?

[Canoerebel]

If Brad doesn't win by auto-victory in early '43, the Allies will win the war. They are in good position everywhere. Neither the navy nor the transport fleet has been hit hard (that's a major plus), the airforces are performing satisfactorily and growing stronger, and the Allies are in good shape on the map - especially in NoPac and CenPac. Even India can prove to be a big victory if the Allies can surround and defeat the Japanese army there, or if Brad keeps his army there too long.

[Cribtop]

I actually agree that committing the US Army openly in India is probably not the way to go at this time. It doesn't seem necessary to hold Bombay's LOC open and counterattacking now could discourage Q from staying in India when you want him there. That said, I do think we may have seen the high water mark in India unless Brad commits more forces.

[paullus99]

You've also forced him to send in his carriers (for the second invasion of Diego Garcia) which clearly identified their location, which allowed your Baker invasion to proceed with minimal support. He has got to be getting a bit frustrated that you've kept your carriers out of the war, while his have been running around the Pacific & Indian Ocean - not really accomplishing all that much.

At some point, he's going to have to split up his carriers - and you can pounce on the isolated segment with your entire fleet. There is much to gain by concentration & very little by separation.

As long as your pilot training program is continuing, when you do send in the carriers & LBA, they should do the job nicely.

[princep01]

Well, CR, Paullus and Cribtop, you all may be right, but, as mentioned before, I think the Japanese are going all out in India for an auto victory. What we presently see is just a preparation phase. He is pausing to bring up supplies and to prep his divisions/units for the coming battles. He is probing to see if Bombay and environs is where the Allies (finally) are going to put up a significant fight. At this point, I think he believes you will fight there. I do think he will time his major effort for later in the year to shorten the interval you have to retake enough VPs to prevent auto victory, but this is where the Japanese are going to go for the kill. Further, I think your continued vassilation regarding his strategic intention in India is going to be costly to you in the end. He has a long, vulnerable logistic tail hanging out there. I'd be banging the door on it a bunch, even if it risk a CV battle.

Just one person's eval, but this is what I said way back when he made his first move toward Ceylon. We'll see soon enough if I eat crow, but I think a much more aggressive effort is going to be necessary to avoid the 4-1.

Good luck, CR. I really enjoy your AAR, even if I disagree with your strategic decisions in this game.

And, for those that care that I might be using intel from CR's opponent's AAR, I have never set foot in that story line.

[Cribtop]

I see your point, princep, and with a big effort and more troops Q-Ball could perhaps take Bombay. However, I don't think he could go much farther as CR could commit the Americans and the "cross the line" reinforcements to any cities further back. Thus, unless Q gets enough out of Bombay for auto-victory, it seems dicey unless CR loses a carrier battle. Also, I think CR's main point is that the Japanese are running out of uncommitted divisions and thus running out of options. I still say watch out for a push right up to The Line in India and a grab for VPs in the Pacific near the end of the year, but I'm not convinced the Japs have the troops to succeed in these ventures.

[Canoerebel]

I am by nature conservative. I don't like counting my chickens before they hatch. But I'll break from habit here and predict that Japan will not achieve auto-victory in India. I think Brad had a shot at it earlier, but that time has passed. Too many Allied troops and aircraft are coming into India now, and the calendar keeps flipping.

I am not positive Brad is still coming. I've only received one SigInt report of a Japanese unit prepping for Bombay (it was 12th Division weeks ago). On the other hand, he is actively building airfields in the area and shows no sign of backing off. But it will take Japan too many troops and too much time to reduce and capture Bombay. And all the time the Japanese flank will be threatened. At some point Brad is going to conclude that his own army is at risk of isolation and destruction. That point probably is at least 60 days away (when 27th Division USA will arrive), but if he doesn't timely begin pulling back his troops, he may find himself in a hasty, messy, costly retreat. It's a long way from Bombay to the nearest Japanese port.

The biggest risk of auto victory is if Brad wins one or more naval battles involving carriers and big combat ships. That doesn't mean I won't sally forth if the circumstances are right, but it does mean I won't be taking unnecessary risks. Since interdicting the Japanese LOC between India and SE Asia isn't necessary, might not accomplish anything worthwhile, and might stumble into a big naval battle, I'm not going to try it. Add to that the tangible benefits of maintaining the "force-in-being concept."

I know this sounds crazy since Japan holds more than one-half of India and is within shooting distance of auto-victory, but the Allies are in very good position.

[paullus99]

I believe, as long as you keep one eye on the key bases / VP locations & the other focused on your ultimate objectives - you'll do just fine. Just don't get sloppy - I've noticed from past AARs that, especially during your offensive phase, that you can overlook key areas or units - so try not to make too many mistakes....

I also agree that the time for a full-blooded attempt by Q to take all of India & get autovictory that way is past - I believe he was probably hoping you'd have to send in your carriers to prevent his invasion, but your defensive strategy seems to have worked without the need to show your hand.

I know you'll try to take advantages of any opportunities & once Q realizes that autovictory isn't in the cards, I would expect to see him make some pretty dramatic defensive shifts (probably abandoning the outliers & not easily defendable bases).

[Canoerebel]

7/29/42 to 7/31/42

India on the Ground: At least two IJ divisions (1st and Guards Tanks) are advancing north on the road from Bombay to Indore in pursuit of the Allied army that bloodied 6th Guards/C. The Alies are pulling back to favorable terrain to (hopefully) entice the IJ units further forward. Meanwhile, a Brit armored unit is moving down the coastal road to Bombay reopening the supply lines. In addition to the 2,600 AV at Bombay, the Allies have 500 at Surat and roughly 900 at the dot hex south of Indore (with two more Brit brigades on the way from Karachi). Brad probably needs to commit at least six divisions to have a chance at controlling the situation north of Bombay, and that number will be increasing as Allied reinforcements arrive.

India in the Air: Mirror image ambushes cost both sides about 15 bombers - the IJA losing that number of Sallies in South India, the Allies losing an equal number of Blenheims and Wellingtons in the north.

India Reinforcements: 5th Marines and the rest of the Marine tank and artillery units are ashore at Karachi. 1st Marines and a Marine 'chutes battalion are about a week away. 27th Division is aboard transports enroute from Mombasa to Aden.

Baker Island: Quiet here. All the Allied ships departed. I-15 picked off AO Kaskaskia near Christmas Island, the first casualty of the unexpectedly easy invasion. Brad seems to be working hard to track the elements of the Allied invasion TFs by sub and long-range air patrol. Concerend that he might have orchestrated some kind of ambush, I split the TFs up days ago. They are now scattered all over the place. All are heading east - most will eventually turn north and make for Hawaii, but CVE Long Island and a few other TFs will make for San Diego.

[Capt. Harlock]

I know this sounds crazy since Japan holds more than one-half of India and is within shooting distance of auto-victory, but the Allies are in very good position.

I have to agree -- Jubal Early got within shooting distance of Washington, but eventually he had to retreat. The Allies are getting more goodies all the time. (But be careful with those Wellingtons: they can't be replaced nearly as fast as Mitchells or Liberators.)