Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Canoerebel]

With all the information that's come to light about the strength of the reinforcements triggered by the "Line of Death," there's no way Brad will dare cross!

[Nemo121]

On the other, late '42 is too early for a major invasion of the sort I have planned, at least for Scenario Two.

WHY??????????

I invaded and retook the Marshall in February/March 1942 in Scenario 2. Late 1942 is emphatically not too early for a major invasion taking out an island chain or a series of island chains. If anything it is too late when facing a gambit like his.

He is too timid in India ( IMO ) given the moves you've shown in your AAR - he should cross the line of death and be done with it, he can stop you reinforcing and if he can do that those reinforcements matter not one jot - and you're too timid in the Pacific IMO.

The longer you delay with your counter-offensive the stronger the resistance is going to be and the less you are going to destabilise his Indian adventure.

[Canoerebel]

I'm not talking about an island chain here. Invading an atoll area is a different proposition, because once the place is taken and adequately garrisoned, it is nearly impossible for the Japanese to reclaim (they're not good at invading later in the war - especially atolls).

I'm dealing with a far different proposition. I don't want to go into details, but Japanese power very much would be a factor. Land I can handle since most of the IJA army is far away, but I would immediately be at a disadvantage at sea and in the air. In a very bad way.

Why then am I planning this? This has been my plan since December 7, 1941. For eight months I've been attending to logistics and position and prep of troops. This plan cuts to the chase and will be implemented at a point when the Allies are much closer to the Japanese in strength.

The Allies can fight for bases on the periphery and make slow but steady progress in 1942. All the while, they'll be at risk of a major carrier defeat (as will the Japanese). But if successful, the Allies will then be in a position to strike more deeply into the "guts" in 1943.

Well, I believe that the Allies can forego the nibbling at the edges in '42 and go right for the guts in '43. The advantage is that doing so reduces the risk of debilitating losses to carriers and high-value transports that I'll need in '43, and I'll be in a position to better organize some feints and deception plans.

This plan is far more detailed than that, but moving it up from '43 to late '42 could well spell disaster. If I have to, fine, I'll do it. But I don't believe I have to.

As for Brad overwhelming the Allies in India, it's too late. Even if he has the equivalent of 20 divisions in India at this point, he doesn't have enough. The Allies have the equivalent of about 15 divisions. And Brad has to use a fair portion of his forces to guard his flanks and rear.

[Canoerebel]

I just saw this on the website of a UK newspaper: "British health officials are hard at work on a new app that will allow users to pee into their cell phones and find out within minutes if they have an STD."

That would be a good reason to avoid call forwarding.

P.S. Back to the regularly schedule game now.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not talking about an island chain here. Invading an atoll area is a different proposition, because once the place is taken and adequately garrisoned, it is nearly impossible for the Japanese to reclaim (they're not good at invading later in the war - especially atolls).

I'm dealing with a far different proposition. I don't want to go into details, but Japanese power very much would be a factor. Land I can handle since most of the IJA army is far away, but I would immediately be at a disadvantage at sea and in the air. In a very bad way.

Why then am I planning this? This has been my plan since December 7, 1941. For eight months I've been attending to logistics and position and prep of troops. This plan cuts to the chase and will be implemented at a point when the Allies are much closer to the Japanese in strength.

The Allies can fight for bases on the periphery and make slow but steady progress in 1942. All the while, they'll be at risk of a major carrier defeat (as will the Japanese). But if successful, the Allies will then be in a position to strike more deeply into the "guts" in 1943.

Well, I believe that the Allies can forego the nibbling at the edges in '42 and go right for the guts in '43. The advantage is that doing so reduces the risk of debilitating losses to carriers and high-value transports that I'll need in '43, and I'll be in a position to better organize some feints and deception plans.

This plan is far more detailed than that, but moving it up from '43 to late '42 could well spell disaster. If I have to, fine, I'll do it. But I don't believe I have to.

As for Brad overwhelming the Allies in India, it's too late. Even if he has the equivalent of 20 divisions in India at this point, he doesn't have enough. The Allies have the equivalent of about 15 divisions. And Brad has to use a fair portion of his forces to guard his flanks and rear.

Maybe I am just conservative by nature but I don't think any massive Allied attack can come before 7/43 vs a competent Japanese opponent. Not in scen #2. You just can't control any point where a Japanese player had the foresight to build up a network of supporting airfields. Problem is fighter production and the dang Tojo. Oscars and zeros are bad enough but the tojo holds the skies until you can get enough hellcats, lightnings and corsairs to take them on. What makes this problem worse is the service ratings of Allied planes vs Japanese-so that even if you can theoretically put an equal number of planes in the air, the Japanese ability to replace losses and repair damaged planes faster than you allows him to control the skies at any point in the map. I don't really see the light until the P47 goes into production.

Not to say that there is not an opportunity to take a place and start grinding away. You need to do it but don't understimate Japanese capibility to react in scen 2. I have reached turn 500 and have constantly been suprised because I had no foreknowledge of the benefits Japan gets in #2. I just though he was going to get a few extra resources at start....[;)]

Unless you have had some sort of miracle victory vs KB, any attempt at a major operation in 1942 should be easily crushed.

[cookie monster]

I agree any conquest would be easily isolated then counter invaded.

[vettim89]

I think there is a lot of game to be played here before early 1943; so it is hard to project with any certainty what the situation will be when that time arrives. That said, Dan has the luxury of eventually being able to dictate some of the air war by having the "enemy at the gates" so to speak. Yes, the Allies are weak now but they grow stronger every day. Eventually they will equal and then pass the Japanese in all facets of the war. Ultimately there will be a battle of attrition where Dan can wear Q-Ball's forces down. Because this is Scenario 2, that point will be later in the war than RL or Scenario 1. Here's the clincher though: because of Brad's India Adventure, this can occur without the Allies invading a single base. So Dan can do it with a very short logistics tail vice say having this battle occur in the SoPac or DEI or NG.

If the Allies can hold the line in India, the whole invasion will be more of a help to the Allies than hindrance. Of course, I did say "if".

[Canoerebel]

Tim, you're right!

It may sound strange for a player on the brink of disaster to claim it's part of a plan, but from the outset (and as articulated early in this AAR) I wanted Brad to get bogged down in a big land/air war in either Oz or India.

Brad has penetrated further than I had anticipated, in part because he's a very good player and in part because my very soft defense has helped him, so that I find myself with very little margin of error at this point.  That I hadn't intended, but it could pay handsome dividends if I am successful in staving off Japanese auto-victory.

Yes, there are nearly five months left to play before auto victory comes into play, so alot will happen that could sway things considerably.

Thanks for chiming in, guys.

[Canoerebel]

Can anyone tell me the garrison limits on Marcus and Wake Island?  I'm at home with no access to the game, so I can't get it.  Once I have that info, I will be in a position to describe Allied plans into early 1943, breaking my long-standing OpSec silence.
 
P.S.  I'm sure Marcus's limit is 6k, but I'm not sure about Wake.  I hope it's the same. 

[JohnDillworth]

Once I have that info, I will be in a position to describe Allied plans into early 1943, breaking my long-standing OpSec silence.

I call Sumatra! Run up from Perth and not impossible to supply from Capetown.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Can anyone tell me the garrison limits on Marcus and Wake Island?  I'm at home with no access to the game, so I can't get it.  Once I have that info, I will be in a position to describe Allied plans into early 1943, breaking my long-standing OpSec silence.

P.S.  I'm sure Marcus's limit is 6k, but I'm not sure about Wake.  I hope it's the same. 

Both are vsmall per the manual. That means 6000. You win!!!!!!!

[cookie monster]

Marcus is a very small atoll therefore limit is 6,000.

Wake is the same.

The rule is if the name is in yellow it's a very small island.

EDIT Vettim beat me to it.[:@]

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the info, and JohnDillworth gets the prize for correctly guessing the ultimate destination.
 
Here's the general plan, most of which readers may recognize:
 
1.  The Allies will land in overwhelming strength on Sumatra sometime in 1943 (the later the better).  The strategic objective is to neutralize Palembang, Singapore, and western Java.  Landings will take place from Padang to Oosthaven.
 
2.  To deceive Brad, long-term, medium-term, and short-term feints and deception will take place:
 
     a)  Long-term: A massive Allied build-up of NoPac (the Western Aleutians) and Australian bases to create an
          appearance of menage to Hokkaido, the Kuriles, Sikhalin Island, and the eastern DEI.
 
     b)  Medium-term:  Conquest of Marcus Island and Wake Island in late '42 or early '43.  This will pose a threat
          to the Bonin Islands and will add to the perception of CenPac/NoPac menace.
 
     c)  Short-term: When the Allies prepare to implement the Sumatra invasion, massive "dummy" invasion forces
          will gather and move toward the Kuriles, someplace in CenPac or SoPac, and northwestern Oz or
          the DEI.
 
3.  In addition to the Sumatra invasion, a secondary invasion will be set to take place a week or two later (once the KB has been drawn to Sumatra).  This might consist of a move on Kwajalein, Ponape or someplace like that.
 
4.  Creation of so many real and diversionary TFs will require a vast number of ships (the reason I have gone overboard to play conservatively and minimize ships losses).
 
5.  An invasion of Sumatra will require maximum carrier protection (the reason I have gone to such lengths to protect the Alllied carriers).
 
6.  The Sumatra force will consist of six to eight Allied divisions and many other units in support.
 
7.  Brad's move on India created both opportunity and peril.  The opportunity is the possibility of invading Sumatra soon, thus making it very, very difficult to extract his India expeditionary army.   The peril is that the KB has been posted in the Bay of Bengal in close proximity to Sumatra.  Ultimately, I have decided for this and other reasons that I should stick to the original timetable unless things become so desperate for the Allies that I have to play desperately.
 
8.  I have been carefully monitoring both Brad's base development and SigInt information about troop deployment.  To this point, the picture is very promising.  There have been what I would describe as minimal development of Sumatra - active base-building at Sabang, but most of the rest of the bases either quiet or just a bit of growth.  The only unit deployed was 65th Mixed Brigade, which just arrived at Padang (darn it!).  On the other hand, base-building in northwestern Oz, Timor, and NoPac has been going gang-busters.
 
9.  I probably don't need to remind you guys to please keep this totally quiet.  Avoid any kind of posting or prodding in Brad's AAR along the lines of "what about Sumatra" or "what kind of troops do you have at Padang?"  Pretty please!
 
 
 

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for chiming in, guys.

One more chime.[:)]

Rememebr that auto-vic isn't a one-time thing. On 1/1/1944 the ratios decrease substantially. You have to either drive him back in India enough to get below 3:1, or do damage elsewhere to get there. I believe you're at roughly 3.5:1 now? 3.4:1 maybe?

Allied LCU losses count more for VP purposes than Japanese VP losses for LCU devices. So he can grind in India for awhile, and while not getting the auto-vic in 1943, get you farther away from 3:1. He can lose more men than you in India and still get more VPs than you do from the battles.

Also, the x4 terrain bonus at Bombay works both directions once he's in the hex. If you attack him to try to throw him out of the hex and allow supply production, he gets the x4 defense bonus, and you suffer from it.

This is just to say, if you're not really hurting him by early 1943, and the big VP banks in India are still mostly Japanese, I wouldn't wait until July to try to start the comeback. He could try his own version of Sir Robin, and rope-a-dope his naval exposure VPs until January 1944.

[cookie monster]

Sounds like a plan.

I was wondering how you are using your subs.

Where do you have them deployed?

[Canoerebel]

Beleive me, auto victory won't be in play in 1944.

[Canoerebel]

Allied subs are deployed all over the place, but the biggest concentrations are the Hokkaido chokepoints, southern Japan, and Indian Ocean.
 
Allied subs have gotten a large number of hits against merchant vessels, but nearly all have been duds.  During the first month or two, the Allies were winning the sub wars, but since then they've done nothing.
 
IE, the subs seemed to be positioned well, but the dud rate is negating that.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Allied subs are deployed all over the place, but the biggest concentrations are the Hokkaido chokepoints, southern Japan, and Indian Ocean.

Allied subs have gotten a large number of hits against merchant vessels, but nearly all have been duds.  During the first month or two, the Allies were winning the sub wars, but since then they've done nothing.

IE, the subs seemed to be positioned well, but the dud rate is negating that.

My experience is similar. I had some early war success but then duds almost exclusively. We even had quite a few duds from RN and RNN subs which is REALLY frustrating. I actually take some solace every time a USN fleet boat attacks because it means they are out there doing there job at least. It also is a gentle reminder that come 1/43 and then really on 9/43, mayhem will be wreaked. This is a second advantage to you as far as India goes: Brad will have a pretty rich killing ground for your subs. He likely will be forced to develop the Andman Islands to help out with LBA ASW efforts

[JeffroK]

Interesting target.

I just played with myself in a game where I held Palembang throughout (lots of evacuees from Singapore helped)

A lot of the bases are capable of being build into size 7-9 Air Bases.

Some of the negatives are that you are very close to some bases on the Malay Peninsula & Java that can interdict your shipping at medium ranges. the ports on the Indian Ocean, Benkeloken, Padang, are connected by tracks, and just too far to support each other efficiently, The Padag, Djambi, Oosthaven triangle is probably the best area.

i also took Christmas & Cocos(Keeling) Is to provide support & some of the Sumatra Islands such as Nias etc.

Should be interesting,  if you can get enough ashore, quickly enough, you might put a massive plug in the sea LOC to India and at least make him walk home.

[JohnDillworth]

Thanks for the info, and JohnDillworth gets the prize for correctly guessing the ultimate destination.

BTW, I figured this out by you postings, I don't think there was anything on the map that would lead me to this conclusion. You had mentioned you might keep the American reinforcements in Capetown to use in future operations. That, and they fact that you are drawing attention to the Northern Pacific as a fient led me to look at exactly the opposite place. If you pull it off Brad's Army will have to walk home.
One question and one concern. You said you were monitoring his base construction and troop deployment. Was this strictly through SigInt? I don't see how you could run any air recon.
My concern is air attrition. Yes you can build up some pretty good air bases, but the Japanese have some pretty good ones too. It seems you are setting yourself up for an air-war of attrition. A war you are already losing. As they say in "Starship Troopers". "It's a numbers game and they have more". particularly in scenario 2. I suggest you get over your shyness about stacking up lots of AA units.