Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Nemo121]

JeffK,

I have held Sumatra and Java ( and southern Borneo and Burma) vs a PBEM opponent - and invaded the Marshalls and Mindanao. It gives you a LOT of options you otherwise wouldn't have. I think my last bombing raid ( and first ) over Singers cost me about 80 planes vs 40 Japanese planes but I think I also sank a BB ( or certainly put it into dock for 2 or 3 months ).

If you can hold Sumatra then I think the game is pretty much won as the Allies.

[Canoerebel]

8/11/42

Sumatra (in reply to JohnDillworth): I'm monitoring IJ troop deployment solely by SigInt, and base building by using OpsReports and the cursor. I have a pretty good feel for what's going on and it's clear that Brad (to this point at least) is concentrating much of his efforts on Oz and NoPac. The air war concerns me, too. That's one reason I wanted to spring this in the autumn of '43, though the date is pretty flexible. Also, if I ultimately end up nixing this target, my next choice might be Sikhalin Island.

Strategic Planning: I think AdmSpruance posted in another thread yesterday his love of the early war planning. I feel the same way. I love the planning and logistics for the Allies early in the war. So I've had a ball working on the Sumatra plan and all the deception it entails. Now I'm really cranking up the Marcus and Wake plans, which should dovetail nicely with everything else. With that in mind here's what I'm thinking:

Strategic: The Allied carriers will complete their Arabian Sea duties within the next two weeks. They will then depart for Panama City via Capetown. I'm not sure whether the carriers will serve as escorts for the Wake/Marcus operations, or instead serve as the centerpiece of a major deception toward the Kuriles time for mid- or late-October (probably the latter). The timing is important - winter conditions set in on November 1, so Brad knows I have to move before then if I'm coming. The Allies will also feint toward New Caledonia and the New Hebrides, which I'm currently reconning (Noumea, Koumac, and Efate are lightly held, which Brad will worry about of course).

Operational: SigInt a few days ago showed Marcus with just 1300 men, which sounds good. No info on Wake, but with a level 6,000 limit, it shouldn't have much. Forces to be committed: Marcus: 159 RCT, 132 RCT, 2 USMC Arty, 102 Combat Eng., 627 Tank Destroyers, 142 Base Force, 86 Coastal AA, 4th Marine Defense Battalion. Wake: 2nd Marines, 145 RCT, 4th Arty, 754 Tanks, 1 Amphib HQ, 34 Combat Eng., 76 Coast AA, 637 Tank Destroyers.

Effect: If this plan proves effective, the Allies will have poked a major bulge in the CenPac region. This, combined with Midway and the big Aleutians buildups, should facilitate the creation of a major deception in this region right before the move on Sumatra. At the same time, if Sumatra gets scrubbed, this will give the Allies another possible major vector of attack - the Bonins or NoPac.

The Key: The KB. If it's absent, this mission should easily succeed. If present, probable disaster. So I am hoping the KB will remain engaged around India, or if not will be draw to NoPac.

As for the current situation in the game:

India: Fairly quiet here at the moment as I await the arrival of the first of the next wave of reinforcements in about three days. No sign, yet, of any invasion force bound for the small port across the bight from Surat. The Allies now have 300 AV there. I think Brad may have an AV with patrol aircraft out near Socatra Island.

China: A massed IJA army is besieging Liuchow - something like eight divisions. They managed a 2:1 attack two days ago that dropped forts from 4 to 3, but it cost the Japanese great disruption. I'm hoping Brad has to wait a few more days to attack again. The Chinese will add 430 AV tomorrow, plus another 600 AV in about four days.

[Canoerebel]

8/12/42 to 8/13/42

We're about to have one of those little "behind the scene" episodes that bring real thrills to the game even when no carrier or combat ship engagements are in the offing.

India at Sea: Brad is sniffing around Socatra hot and heavy, and I'm hoping, hoping, hoping that the bait (a bunch of xAKL) will entice him to send his carriers that way. (I-25 picked off one xAKL). At the very least, I hope he's not fixed on Karachi at the moment. The first of the big Allied troop TFs will arrive in three days, carryng more Marines. Then, in about seven to nine days, 27th Division will arrive. If these troops make it safely, the Allies will go on the offensive, working the edges of the Japanese deployment north of Bombay. The war is about to change, but I hope he is blissfully unaware of that fact.

India on the Ground: Brad has totally surrounded Bombay now, including a jungle hex hard against the sea that he really had to work to reach. His campaign around Bombay is developing, but very, very slowly, suggesting his plan is to focus on Bombay between now and January 1, 1943. This is a mistake, I believe. He's acting like he's got all the time in the world, but he may not be factoring in the arrival of Allied reinforcements.

India in the Air: Brad is nibbling around Bombay with fighters - clashes occur every day, with no more than light losses on both sides. I'm not sure why his bombers aren't working the area yet.

China: Brad's troops have Liuchow down to two forts, but another 1,000 Allied AV will arrive in about two days, so it's going to be close here.

CenPac: All troops assigned to Marcus and Wake Island are prepping now. If the invasions are successful, the Allies will leave behind an infantry unit and a CD on each base. If there's room, I'll leave some base force personnel at Wake, which is a level three airfield. I think the Allies will have at least two more CVE by the time this operation takes place (mid to late October, I think). The deception for this plan will focus on an apparent move on New Caledonia and New Hebrides. Continued reconn, which I think has Brad's full attention, show these islands lightly garrisoned.

[Cribtop]

Oh, my. Get those troops ashore and it may be time for a Little Round Top moment.

[JohnDillworth]

I think Brad may be able to squeeze the hell out of Bombay. From the air, on the ground and with BB's at sea. If he wants to blockade with the KB, unchallenged, he might be able to drive supply pretty low.

[Canoerebel]

John,

First, thanks for the interesting link yesterday to the "mysterious missile" story. That was the first I'd heard of it and I looked into in carefully.

Second, I was amazed at you catching flak for supposedly posting a story that might generate controversy. Nothing like doing something out of kindness and then getting the blame with a numbskull or two starts a riot.

Third, what you just described is clearly Brad's plan for Bombay, but I don't think he can win the battle over the long term. The Allies are just going to be too strong on his flank, posing a real risk to the security of his own forces.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it (unless and until it all falls apart so that I am publicly humiliated and have to think of a way to blame the game for my woes).

Dan

[JohnDillworth]

irst, thanks for the interesting link yesterday to the "mysterious missile" story. That was the first I'd heard of it and I looked into in carefully.

Second, I was amazed at you catching flak for supposedly posting a story that might generate controversy. Nothing like doing something out of kindness and then getting the blame with a numbskull or two starts a riot.

Thanks for the kind words. I think this has happened to all of us on one occasion or another. Not to be judgmental but I think maybe someone has an ax to grind with one of the people that was posting and I just go caught in the cross-fire. I'll just lay low for a few days so there is no guilt by association.
Again thanks and start sending more supply to Bombay. Maybe 1 xAKL at a time

[Canoerebel]

8/13/42

China: A sharp rebuke for the Allies as 7-and-2/3 IJA divisions shock attack and take Liuchow just before reinforcements arrive. Fortunately, for once a defeated Allied army takes a sensible route to retreat, moving along the road toward Kweilin. The Chinese have about 2,300 AV in the retreating stack. That, along with the 2,500 AV at Kweilin, should be enough to hold that hex. To the west, I'll establish a roadblack in the first wooded hex - about 1,000 AV. But if the Japanese move in strength this way, I'll cobble together a larger force at Toyun. Supply in China is a problem since India isn't contributing any, but that's the cards dealt.

India: Another quiet turn. The first of the big Allied reinforcement TFs just exited the "wormhole," will arrive at Karachi tomorrow, and should unload the day after. More is on the way, so the next few days are critical - I don't need the KB or a strong combat TF to show up now.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: vettim89

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Allied subs are deployed all over the place, but the biggest concentrations are the Hokkaido chokepoints, southern Japan, and Indian Ocean.

Allied subs have gotten a large number of hits against merchant vessels, but nearly all have been duds.  During the first month or two, the Allies were winning the sub wars, but since then they've done nothing.

IE, the subs seemed to be positioned well, but the dud rate is negating that.

My experience is similar. I had some early war success but then duds almost exclusively. We even had quite a few duds from RN and RNN subs which is REALLY frustrating. I actually take some solace every time a USN fleet boat attacks because it means they are out there doing there job at least. It also is a gentle reminder that come 1/43 and then really on 9/43, mayhem will be wreaked. This is a second advantage to you as far as India goes: Brad will have a pretty rich killing ground for your subs. He likely will be forced to develop the Andman Islands to help out with LBA ASW efforts

No, don't get your Allied sub hopes up. An effective Japanese player can neutralize the Allied sub effort. It is fun and Allied subs can be dangerous but any hope of any serious impact on Japanese oil and resource shipping is a pipe dream. In fact the greater impact will be the sinkings you get on Japanese warships.

The reasons for this are.

The ability of the Japanese player to create significantly better ASW assets and use them in a better manner. More Allied subs (lots more) go to the bottom than historically happened. And in scen#2 it seems the Japanese player gets a lot more DDs and escorts or the ability to convert.

Serious targeting issuse where Allied subs will on at least %50 of the time (or greater) attack some craptacular escort vessel (and usually miss) rather than the more valuable tankers and merchants. It pays the Japanese to have at least one escort with his ships as this can pretty much assure minimal loss.

You will sink lots of ships but in no way sink enough to cripple the Japanese merchant fleet with your subs.

[Canoerebel]

Sadly, this situation with Allied subs is just as you guys say.
 
Another factor is that by the time the dud rate declines, Japanese ASW is death on Allied subs.
 
Sometime in 1943, I will stop using Allied subs en masse.  I will use them for screening purposes and to "flood the zone" when I think I know where a big engagement is going to occur.  But I will not even try to impose any kind of blockade vs. merchant shipping.  I did that in my game vs. Miller and lost hundreds of subs for nearly no return.

[cookie monster]

I was wondering how bad your supply situation was in China with no hump flying. As you mentined its probably not good.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Sadly, this situation with Allied subs is just as you guys say.

Another factor is that by the time the dud rate declines, Japanese ASW is death on Allied subs.

Sometime in 1943, I will stop using Allied subs en masse.  I will use them for screening purposes and to "flood the zone" when I think I know where a big engagement is going to occur.  But I will not even try to impose any kind of blockade vs. merchant shipping.  I did that in my game vs. Miller and lost hundreds of subs for nearly no return.

Well this cements my belief that ASW as a whole is overrated for all sides. I have been playing Andy Mac's Downfall scenario and a USN sub attacked by even one or two E type escorts is always sunk. My problem with modding is that early war ASW seems about right but late war is way too powerful. El Cid did some experimenting with the WiTP RHS mod. Unfortunately AE was released about the time he was getting somewhere. Odd that we never see him over here. I know he rubbed some people the wrong way but he was willing to do the hard work with testing

[stuman]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

irst, thanks for the interesting link yesterday to the "mysterious missile" story. That was the first I'd heard of it and I looked into in carefully.

Second, I was amazed at you catching flak for supposedly posting a story that might generate controversy. Nothing like doing something out of kindness and then getting the blame with a numbskull or two starts a riot.

Thanks for the kind words. I think this has happened to all of us on one occasion or another. Not to be judgmental but I think maybe someone has an ax to grind with one of the people that was posting and I just go caught in the cross-fire. I'll just lay low for a few days so there is no guilt by association.Again thanks and start sending more supply to Bombay. Maybe 1 xAKL at a time

It's too late to lay low. You are being watched.

[Canoerebel]

From AdmSpruance's AAR, here's a good example of what we're talking about with Allied subs and Japanese ASW as you go further into the war:
 
"7/18-7/21/44

SUBS

SS Scorpion is hit by 2 DCs from E boats off Wakkanai.

SS Crevalle is hit by 23 DCs from E boats near Shikuka.

SS Gurnard is hit by 16 DCs from E boats by Toyohara,

SS Bluefin is hit by 4 DCs from IJN ASW TF off Izu Oshima.

SS Spiteful is hit by 4 DCs from IJN ASW near Yokohama."


No Allied subs scored a hit during this period....

[Cribtop]

Not good. I don't mind IJN ASW achieving better than the historical results if they actually bother to escort convoys, but the ability of the escorts to easily obtain this number of hits, combined with the tendency to waste attacks on escorts instead of merchies, is troubling indeed.

[VSWG]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

No Allied subs scored a hit during this period....

Yes, because his opponent isn't running any convoys anymore, and the IJN has been destroyed. There's nothing left to shoot at except the ASW TFs.

[Canoerebel]

8/14/42 and 8/15/42

India Reinforcements: 1st Marines and 1st Marine 'Chutes have safely landed at Karachi (whew!), joining 5th Marines, 1st USMC Tanks, and 1st USMC Arty. This is a big boost to morale. All transports carrying 27th Division (USA) have either arrived at, or come and gone from, Abadan. I've divided the transports into three TFs to minimize the risk of destruction. The first TF will exit the channel in two days; the second in four days; and the third in about six days. Therefore, in about a week, all American reinforcements will have arrived at Karachi and I will begin organizing a push against the Japanese perimeter.

Strategic Considerations: In addition to 27th Division's 390 AV, about 840 Indian AV arrives in Aden during the next 45 days. I am convinced that Brad has only one chance to take Bombay by the end of the year. He has to commit the KB and his combat ships to halt this flow of supplies and troops into Karachi. (Therefore, I have decided to keep the Allied carriers close by just in case. For now they shall remain at Mombasa. I do not think I need the carriers for the Wake/Marcus invasion scheduled for mid- or late October. If Brad sends the KB into the Pacific, he will have conceded the battle for India.) As soon as 27th Division is safely ashore, the Allies will organize two armies - one of about 1250 to 1500 AV to move south from Poona. The second of a similar amount to move south from Indore.

India in the Air: IJA bombers hit Bombay for the first time, but did no damage. (Bombay has level seven forts that are 31% to level eight).

[paullus99]

I'm very interested in seeing how things proceed from here. Obviously, he's got a firm focus on Bombay, probably with the same intention of making you bleed for it - but if you're able to open up additional avenues of advance, it will complicate things for him.

Tie that into multiple threats in the north, central, & south, he's going to have a hard time prioritizing where he needs to reinforce and commit - hopefully everywhere but where you want him to do so. I would also recommend making these diversions just large enough, so that if he does begin to react to the real threat (withdrawing troops, ships & planes) you'll be able to take advantage and start nibbling away at the perimeter (Baker Is. was a perfect example of this).

I think he's so focused on India right now, that he may just panic & overreact once you're other operations begin to move forward.

And if you can surprise him with your carriers, if his attention is focused on the land-based aspects of the campaign, you could do some real damage to him.

[Canoerebel]

Map of the situation in India, 8/17/42.

27th Division (USA) will arrive at Karachi in three detachments over the next week. Upon arrival, this unit, two Marine RCT, and one Marine tank unit will serve as the Allied reserve.

The Allies will advance in two prongs - down the coastal road from Surat, and inland a bit down the road from Indore. Both prongs are meant to apply some pressure on the IJ flank north of Bombay.

I believe Brad will then try to apply pressure on the flank of the Allied units advancing from Indore. Such a move by the Japanese will be met by the American units held in reserve.

Upon arrival of the additional Indian troops due by 10/01/42, the Allies will probe further east, circumstances permitting.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

8/14/42 and 8/15/42

India Reinforcements: 1st Marines and 1st Marine 'Chutes have safely landed at Karachi (whew!), joining 5th Marines, 1st USMC Tanks, and 1st USMC Arty. This is a big boost to morale. All transports carrying 27th Division (USA) have either arrived at, or come and gone from, Abadan. I've divided the transports into three TFs to minimize the risk of destruction. The first TF will exit the channel in two days; the second in four days; and the third in about six days. Therefore, in about a week, all American reinforcements will have arrived at Karachi and I will begin organizing a push against the Japanese perimeter.

Strategic Considerations: In addition to 27th Division's 390 AV, about 840 Indian AV arrives in Aden during the next 45 days. I am convinced that Brad has only one chance to take Bombay by the end of the year. He has to commit the KB and his combat ships to halt this flow of supplies and troops into Karachi. (Therefore, I have decided to keep the Allied carriers close by just in case. For now they shall remain at Mombasa. I do not think I need the carriers for the Wake/Marcus invasion scheduled for mid- or late October. If Brad sends the KB into the Pacific, he will have conceded the battle for India.) As soon as 27th Division is safely ashore, the Allies will organize two armies - one of about 1250 to 1500 AV to move south from Poona. The second of a similar amount to move south from Indore.

India in the Air: IJA bombers hit Bombay for the first time, but did no damage. (Bombay has level seven forts that are 31% to level eight).

You might consider moving a lot more tank units to India from the US. I find that unless your are engaged heavily in OZ in 1942 these units are not so useful. I mean they are always useful but open terrain such as in India and OZ is where they really shine. You might even bring some Australian units if you can spare them. Once they fill out the Aussie motorized brigades are some of the best early units, and the Aussie tank regiments with matilda and Grants are strong enough to kick around any Japanese armor in open terrain. Keep them a secret and then spring them in mass on him. You might really be able to pull off a serious land victory in India that way and prevent having to grind your way back to Calcutta and Dehli. Combined with the Indian and British armored brigades and the two Indian motorized brigages that you get, you would be able to patch together a fairly strong ad hoc armored corps in India. Frankly, a couple of US divisions in India will help in the short term but a lot of smaller mobile units might make more of a difference later on.