Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Canoerebel]

8/21/42 and 8/22/42

Some small but important developments:

The Odyssey of 20th Indian Division: This is the Indian division that was stranded in south India during the Japanese blitzkrieg advance. I couldn't extract a cadre by air because I didn't have the PP to transfer the unit to an unrestricted command. I tried my best to get the unit out through a variety of channels, but Brad adroitly stopped each effort, then pummeled the division into near oblivion. Finally, the division retreated into a small, interior base still controlled by the Allies. The unit is down to zilch, so I paid the PP to transfer, and now I'll try to extract a cadre by air, using transports in Hyderabad and Bangalore, both of which Brad has left in Allied hands (I assume he doesn't want to have to garrison these bases). If I suceed in getting a cadre to Bombay or further north, a small but important victory will have taken place.

India Reinforcements: One of three TFs carrying 27th Division has exited the Abadan channel and will arrive at Karachi tonight, with a second set to exit tomorrow. SigInt reports "call sign of DD Suzukazi at 26/12, out in the Arabian Sea about 800 miles from Karachi. I decided to go ahead and allow the first TF to proceed to Karachi to unload. I wanted to recall the second to Abadan, but all orders buttons are grayed out (this sometimes happens to TFs in the channels, especially when they've already been issued recall orders while previously in the channel). I'll have to hold my breath tomorrow, hoping that neither a combat TF nor the KB interdict this convoy.

India in the Air: Brad stood down his airforce - an unusual occurrence - after taking a bit of a rap on the nose. He has big airfields and hundreds of aircraft in the area, but he has not been using them in a big way. I can only conclude that supply must be an major issue for him.

India on the Ground: The situation north of Bombay remains unclear. I'm not sure yet whether Brad is setting up a defensive/blocking position, or preparing to press north to test Allied defenses in the Surat/Indore/Cawnpore area.

SoPac: Two more Lightning recon squadrons have arrived. I will ramp up reconnaissance activity. In addition to the regular New Caledonia/New Hebrides flights, the Allies will include Vaitupu and Norfolk Island.

[Canoerebel]

8/23/42

Brad must be busy at work, because turns have declined steadily over the past two weeks to the point where they are very irregular now. With so much at stake it's hard to be patient...

India Reinforcements: Most of 27th Division (286 AV) landed at Karachi yesterday. This is a big relief and boost to morale.

20th Indian Div. Odyssey: Two cadres were air-evacced to Hyderabad and Bangalore from the hopeless position near the tip of India. It now appears very likely that the Allies will be able to rebuild this division, whereas all hope had been lost just a few days ago.

India in the Air: Japan renewed strikes against Bombay, but came out on the short end. Most days, two small and weary P-38 squadrons are the only fighters flying CAP. They acquit themselves well, but can only do so much against scores or even hundreds of aircraft.

India on the Ground: The picture north of Bombay remains unclear - not sure whether Brad is advancing or erecting a perimeter around Bombay.

India at Sea: No ship sightings in the Arabian Sea.

India Strategic: Japan's airfield at Calicut, on the southwest coast of India, just went to level seven. This doesn't do much for Brad's point total, and it's too distant to help him with the Bombay siege. The only reason to build Calicut is to guard against Allied amphibious operations. It is hard for me to believe that Brad could envisions a long, massive campaign in India. He really needs to go for the jugular or get his troops out.

SoPac: Recon indicates Noumea very lightly held (one unit less than 2k strong), Efate lightly held; Vaitupu vacant. A probe of Norfolk Island is scheduled for tomorrow. It looks like Brad has pulled troops out of this forward region, inviting Allied attack. Since this area is so far forward, it makes sense to entice the Allies to focus time and troops so far forward of the Japanese MLR. But Noumea is worth 700 VP, so from that standpoint Brad has to hold it. The Allies don't mind targeting "easy pickings" in this region, but SoPac will never be a major vector of attack. I'm chewing over all these things at the moment.

Sumatra: Padang, which is guarded by 65th Brigade, just went to level three airfield.

SigInt: 71st Division prepping for Sydney; 28th prepping for Karachi. I think these must be Manchurian units, but I'll double-check later today.

[Chickenboy]

Canoerebel,
 
Something I've been wondering about with your evacuation of so many eviscerated fragments:  how long will it take for you to piece together a functional combat unit with your scant Indian or British replacement schedule?  It's nice to get the parent units out of harms way, but how will you prioritize LCU replacements into your system moving forward?  I assume that you'll have to do some rationing of your reserves / replacements?
 
Also, I'm curious why you believe that he needs to 'go for the jugular or get his troops out'?  Are you in a position to forcibly expel Brad's forces from his current hold in India?  If not, unless there's another immediate counterinvasion that you're mounting (that Brad will identify as a credible threat), why should he evacuate?  You may have saved Karachi, but there's a long, long, long ways between a last-ditch defensive stand in Karachi and Allied reclamation of the subcontinent before auto-victory...

[Canoerebel]

Chickenboy, how was your trip to Thailand? (If you've already discussed this, I missed it). As for your two questions:

1. One British division was wrecked in the defense of Ceylon. I don't expect it to recover until late 1943 or later. But the cadres of the Indian units are important for two reasons: (a) If Brad does cross the "Line of Death" triggering reinforcements, I think the Allies get a bunch of troops and supply convoys that will help fill out cadres; (b) Sometime in 1943 the Indian units begin to grow much stronger, so I expect the cadres to flesh out at that time. To have lost an entire division - in this case 20th Indian - would have left me without the means to "flesh out" what will eventually become a powerful unit.

2. I believe it is a fundamental mistake for Japan to commit to a long defensive war in India for three reasons: (a) it allows the Allies to employ LBA to maximum effect as the calendar flips into 1943, (b) India makes a great buffer for Japan in 1942, but eventually it's largely irrelevant to Japan - what good is it to have 15 divisions in India if, in the meantime, the Allies are free to rampage across NoPac or CenPac or SWPac? (3) India is a very promising auto-victory route for Japan, so go for it. Once auto-victory is off the table, though, Japan needs to extract its troops so they can help defend Japan's heart and guts (Home Islands, DEI, etc.).

In our game, auto-victory is still on the table if Japan remains on the offensive. So Brad needs to press forward. If he doesn't, or if he can't, he needs to begin an orderly withdrawal of his troops so that they aren't stuck in no-man's-land fighting an unfavorable war of attrition while the real war is being waged in Sumatra or Java, or Saipan or the Kuriles.

[Chickenboy]

CR,
 
Thanks for your answers.  I agree with you philosophically.  From a practical perspective, however, he will only be hoisted on his own petard if you make him pay elsewhere.  Rampaging across NoPac, CenPac or SWPac is as rampaging does.  He's only strung out insofar as you can take advantage of it elsewhere.  Not can-I should say DO.
 
Anyways, Thailand was OK.  I was there working, so intentionally avoiding too much of the touristy stuff.  I did get a day to see the Bangkok zoo (Binturongs galore!  Fish Therapy! [:-]) and the Grand Palace.  The latter with most impressive architecture and ornate decor.  Oh-if you want Buddhas-they've got 'em.  Cheap food and transport too.

[Canoerebel]

That's the point. The longer Japan is tied down in India, the better the chances for the Allies to strike in a meaningful way elsewhere.

In Scenario 2, it is difficult for the Allies to accomplish anything more than raids in 1942* - at least through summer and maybe autumn. Anything more ambitious is likely to get isolated and detroyed.** But later in '42 and especially into '43, the Allies do have the means to take and hold serious real estate.*** That's why I think Brad is playing with fire if he leaves most of his troops in India to wage a war that isn't vital to the Empire's longevity.****

* There are exceptions, of course.
** There are exceptions, of course.
*** There are exceptions, of course.
**** It is vital to auto-victory, which is still in play, so at the moment I think he needs to do everything he can to crush the
Allies in India.

[Cribtop]

You have a great opportunity to use a quick descent on high point Noumea if he is flirting with auto-victory in India near the end of the year; provided you have the troops and ships prepped and in position to do it (and assuming KB is known to be elsewhere).

[Canoerebel]

[:D]

I'm prepping three Kiwi brigades, and transports are on the way from Capetown via Balboa.

This is such an obvious move that I fear a trap. Nevertheless, with good recon giving an "all clear," it might be worth risking a move on Noumea just after the Allies invade Marcus and Wake.

[JohnDillworth]

This is such an obvious move that I fear a trap. Nevertheless, with good recon giving an "all clear," it might be worth risking a move on Noumea just after the Allies invade Marcus and Wake.

I like it. Keep trimming the edges. Take what he will give you, long as you know where the KB is.

[Canoerebel]

8/24/42

Odyssey of the 20th Indian Division: The Allies did manage to extract a cadre - actually two cadres - of this isolated division. The remainder of the beleaugered division will probably be destroyed shortly.

Hyderabad: For months, Brad had declined to take this vacant base. I had pulled out during the retreat from southern India, but he didn't want to take it due to the garrison requirement. Weeks ago, he asked me about it since he knew it was a VP drain for me because it wasn't garrisoned, but I told him that was my problem. However, he changed his mind, in all probability because an Indian unit arrived there (it was a way-station for the 20th Division evacuation). Thus, the evacuation of the cadres paid an unexpected but helpful little dividend.

India in the Air: The Allies scored a 2:1 victory (28 to 14) today - mainly because B-17s from Ahmadebad destroyed 18 aircraft on the ground at Goa.

India at Sea: A large TF transporting crated aircraft will cross the "Socatra Straits" over the next two or three turns. This is a "hold-your-breath" moment.

NoPac: The Allies just dropped off a Canadian brigade at Adak. Things are quiet here, but soon I will move a bunch of ships this way to give at least some appearance that something might be happening.

CenPac: Troops are roughly 15% prepped for Marcus and Wake, meaning the Allies should be able to proceed on schedule (October). All troops except one unit are in Hawaii or aboard ship heading that way. The only exception is a CD unit down at Samoa.

SoPac: Recon shows that Horn Island is surprisingly heavily garrisoned (Brad doesn't want to leave open that door to the eastern DEI) and Norfolk Island has a garrison. I will develop more information about Norfolk over the next few days, as I'd like to first invade there as soon as possible (some Aussie and Kiwi troops are prepping, but I don't know if I have enough).

[Canoerebel]

Placeholder (to keep track of IJA divisions in India):

As of 8/24/42, the whereabouts of 15 divisions are known, plus three suspected:

Bombay: 12th, 38th, 45th, 5th
North of Bombay/Poona: Imperial Guards, 6th Guards, 4th Guards, Guards Tanks, 1st
Benares and vicinity: 18th, 4th, 54th:
NE India/Burma: 33rd
South: 10th, 52nd
Previously known to be in India, but current whereabouts unknown: 2nd, 18th, 21st
Prepping for Karachi, whereabouts unknown: 28th

[JohnDillworth]

India in the Air: The Allies scored a 2:1 victory (28 to 14) today - mainly because B-17s from Ahmadebad destroyed 18 aircraft on the ground at Goa.

What altitude are the B-17's bombing from? Any CAP harassment? Are they going in escorted and have you taken many losses?
thanks

[Canoerebel]

I vary B-17 height from 10k to 20k. They fly unescorted. Brad has employed Nicks against them (and some Zeroes) with some success. Overall, the Forts haven't been flying in big enough numbers to register a major impact or to take large losses.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Placeholder (to keep track of IJA divisions in India):

As of 8/24/42, the whereabouts of 15 divisions are known, plus three suspected:

Bombay: 12th, 38th, 45th, 5th
North of Bombay/Poona: Imperial Guards, 6th Guards, 4th Guards, Guards Tanks, 1st
Benares and vicinity: 18th, 4th, 54th:
NE India/Burma: 33rd
South: 10th, 52nd
Previously known to be in India, but current whereabouts unknown: 2nd, 18th, 21st
Prepping for Karachi, whereabouts unknown: 28th

Looking at that list begs a question. Have you considreed moving some serious surface forces to Aden in case Q-Ball tries an Anzio type landing in your rear. I know you don't want to risk your carriers but maybe a good portion of the RN? Especially considering the fact that a lot of it gets withdrawn anyway

[Canoerebel]

Yes, I've thought about sending a BB/CA force to Abadan, but haven't yet.

I'm not as worried about an Anzio operation now because there isn't any rear left! There are only three coastal bases north of Bombay where Brad could land: Surat, the port across the bight (name escapes me), and Karachi. I have 550 AV to 750 AV at each of these three bases along with good fortification levels. The Allies also have mobile reserves stationed nearby so that I could heavily reinforce.

Also, Brad has so many divisions on the ground in India that it doesn't leave much for him to work with. He would probably need three divisions to successfully invade Surat or the adjacent base, and more than that to take Karachi.

Two things that worry me more:

1. The KB and/or combat TFs imposing a blockade of Karachi. If that happens, I may well use my carriers and combat ships. (This has been my biggest concern for many months, but for some reason Brad hasn't employed this strategy).
2. Eventually I'm going to want to move an army down the coast road to reopen the supply line to Bombay. If I weaken the Surat garrison, Brad might invade at that point. So I'll have to be careful to keep the base strongly garrisoned.

[Cribtop]

His failure to blockade Karachi is a mystery to me as well. It makes sense whether he's planning to Cross the Line or not, and with all he's taken in southern India the risk is pretty low for him as friendly bases and LBA are nearby.

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, had Brad employed strong CA/DD forces to periodically raid shipping at Karachi, or had he more regularly positioned the KB five or eight hexes offshore, I'd have had no choice but to commit my carriers to ensure my key reinforcements made it. Now that they have all arrived, the need to use Karachi will become critical only if I begin to run low on supplies, which won't happen for a long time.

Perhaps Brad's thinking went something like this: "I would have to commit my combat ships (or carriers) regularly to have any shot of shutting down traffic to Karachi. The fact that Allied ships can appear and disappear from the wormhole makes the mission even more difficult. The fact that the Allied carriers could suddenly appear and then just as easily withdraw entails signficant risk. And I don't have enough fuel to do this long enough to really stop the flow of men and supplies."

That's pure speculation, but it's the best I can come up with.

I've been occasionally sending unescorted supply xAKs to Karachi knowing that some would be sunk by IJN subs, hoping that this might persuade Brad that his sub blockade is effective. I can't believe this would really deceive him, though.

[Canoerebel]

8/25/42

India at Sea: Brad has been reading my AAR! [:)] After yesterday's discussion here about his strategy around Karachi, a CL/DD force shows up and sinks two KV and three ML on ASW duty. Right now, I only have a handful of CA/CL/DD in the Aden/Abadan area. I'm going to move BB Ramilles, CA Devonshire, two CL, and four DD up there. Meanwhile, I'm thinking about retiring my carriers to Capetown to upgrade additional aircraft squadrons (they won't upgrade at Mombasa, for some reason, even though it's a level five port - or perhaps because it's only level five?).

India in the Air: The Allies came out ahead again, facing mostly Oscars, Nates, and Zeros, with a few Tojo arriving late. I've moved about 150 fighters to Bombay to try for an ambush tomorrow.

India on the Ground: Nothing happening that I can tell. Oddly, though, Brad has backed away from the tired remnants of 20th Indian Division near the southern tip. I suppose he's decided he doesn't want to destroy it only to have it rebuilt elsewhere. The balance of 27th Division (around 160 AV) is still aboard transports - one will exit the Abadan channel in two or three days (assuming I give the all clear). The other will depart Abadan tomorrow.

SoPac: This area looks pretty open, which is a good strategy on Brad's part, and one which I've advocated for Japan in the past: weakly garrison remote, strategically non-vital outposts to try to entice the Allies into campaiging far, far from more vital areas. In this case, though, I want to pick up some of these bases if I can do so on the cheap, but this will never be a major vector of attack. There's no question in my mind that the Allies will choose either Sumatra, Java, the western Pacific Island chains, or NoPac for the main vector or vectors when the time arrives.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
(they won't upgrade at Mombasa, for some reason, even though it's a level five port - or perhaps because it's only level five?).

Airfield size there is what? Supply>20,000? AirHQ in range?

[Canoerebel]

Airfield is size five, supplies are 14k, no HQ The supply level explains it. I'll see if I have any loaded xAKs nearby. If so, it would be quicker to unload at Mombasa than to move the carriers back to Capetown. Thanks, Chickenboy.