Andy Mac v PZB This time India will Stand !!!!

[Andy Mac]

Oh I am not making a decision I am merely musing nothing will happen for a few days while I plan and consider my options.
 
I agree risking my carriers is a no win situation for a few months.
 
The question is what could I achieve with acceptable risk and acceptable casualties without carrier involvement - the honest answer may end up being not a lot but I am going to explore my options.
 
 

[jrcar]

I agree with Nemo

You need to generate an advantage. Look at your strengths and weknesses, identify the gaps in your capability, move assets into position.

So far you have bled white your strengths, I'm not sure you have one at the moment... probably SEASIA is the best. I like Sabang option, but you are really sticking your head into a hornets nest... do you have the fighters to defend it...

How are your heavy bombers, can you concentrate them to cause an effect, and if so what effect are you after....

Look for several operational end states that achieve strategic endstates. I don't think PM is one.

Sabang probably is, but what do you do then and do you have the force to do it?

Good luck!

Cheers

Rob

[traskott]

In fact, rethinking the situation, even P.M. is a risky operation....you don't have enough CVs to support the operation AND acept the losses you'll have. Let's to supose you take P.M, and two of your carriers get damaged so they will be out of action for several months...Is P.M. worth this result  ?

I don't think Sabang is a good idea. Near japanese air reserves, and with a lot of AF in the zone so supresing enemy air activity is imposible....

[DivePac88]

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

The question is what could I achieve with acceptable risk and acceptable casualties without carrier involvement - the honest answer may end up being not a lot but I am going to explore my options.

You don't need to hit anywhere else, time is on your side, and you don't need anymore sideshows. The CENPAC axis of attack is the most dangerous to him, and he will know that. If you chose to cut strait for Japan from Pearl Harbor, all his processions in SOUPAC are just real-estate.

I would keep focused on building my strength for one big push in maybe six months on the Northern Marshall's. Take them quickly, and build them-up quickly, so you can fight him under land based air. Also if he comes out early with his carriers, you don't have to multi-task your big carriers. Your CVE's can provide air-support for you landings, and your big carriers can sit behind your landings and pounce, just like he did to you.

Mind you these are just suggestions from a humble grogard. [;)]

[Andy Mac]

All true the fact is I played badly in the last few weeks - I was unlucky as well but luck wouldnt have came into it had I not made the initial mistake.

Cest la vie time to come up with a new plan I am not out of the fight yet.

So far I won 2/3 of the major battles I sunk mini KB and the Bay of Bengal Sqn.

This defeat is so galling because I have turned a good solid position into a difficult nasty one.

Not impossible to turn round but not easy either

[crsutton]

I'm with Nemo here. It is best to put a tight reign on your offensive moves and rebuild your stocks for the future. You will just have to accept that you most likely will be a year or so behind and that the game will go into 1946. Nothing wrong with that, it will be fun for both you and PzB. You took a severe beating but did not suffer a total disaster and can recover. Put your carriers to bed for a while, train up the aircrews and come back when you have a lot of strength. Just be aware that in scen #2 your opponent is going to have a lot of nice things to play with and will get many carriers and aircraft types sooner than you would normally expect.

Truth is in scen #2 your goal should not be taking territory but taking out the Japanese navy. Japan gets so much more in the way of LBA and troops that the road to victory in this scen is by killing Japanese warships. Any future operations should have that in mind. Which means you should not be trying it until you a fairly sure you can put a whipping on KB.

PM or the Solomons are not a bad route because it is ground where you can sink many Japanese ships if he fights there. (and lose many of your own) but bear in mind that his ability to counter-invade or to just lock up your valuable infantry units is farily strong in scen #2 until you get major air units in late 1943. Japanese LBA in this scen is just scary. Not so much for quality but in numbers.

[rodri_irizar]

Hi, this is my first intervention in this fantastic AAR. English is not my native language, so excuse my mistakes.

I want to give a "what if" Historical aproach to your problem. May be this can give some ideas to you.
First of all assume for a second that the Japanese had won at Midway, and that Americans had lost all their CVs without causing losses to the Japanese.
Then, What they had done?, Both strategically and tactically?
Would they have immediately launched an attack, trying to take the first island off?
Or they have waited to gather enough strength to launch an attack with high probability of being successful?

Remember the general idea of Americans, both in Europe and the Pacific.
1) Wait to collect an overwhelming amount of material resources
2) Hitting on the strategically most important location of the enemy, using these unstoppable resources.
Americans were not characterized by their astute strategic vision, or their surprisse attacks. In that they were like the Russians.

Remember their successives ground offensives in Europe.
1) They started in Africa when they had enough troops, ships and planes. Not before.
2) Then they went to Italy, because they didn´t have the needed resources to go to France yet
3) Just went to Normandy when they could muster the massive resources (naval, air and ground) that they considered necessary for success on the continent.
And even then we should remember the words of Eisenhower: “we had total success in obtaining our goals only when we meet a superiority of at least five to one on the Germans”

Russians clamored for a second front for years, but the Americans do not open it until they were sure of not failing.-

In summary. Andy, I think that some time ago you said yourself "patience, patience, patience."
And despite what you said, you did not have patience, and made a mistake that cost you dearly.

As Nemo says, keeps in your mind your long-term goals and do not take risks before having gathered the necessary amount of force to ensure that your next target will be captured at an acceptable cost.
Time is on your side. For now.

By the way, you got clear what´s your next objective?, and what forces you need to get it?, obviously inflicting more losses for which you are going to suffer.
I think this analysis is very important for the future of your campaign. Much more important than trying any adventure at the time of greatest weakness.
I'm not saying you have to sit and let time pass without doing anything.
What I mean is that you decide the next steps, taking into account the American system: to make low-risk movements. And the low risk is to have superiority in material ensures that you can not turn victory into defeat, or it will not be a Pyrrhic victory.
Finally, you can afford to wait to assemble the forces necessary to give you again the superiority? I think so, but definitely this is a decision that only you should take.
You must overcome the bad times and beating the Japanese ... when they can´t hit back you.

I know, I know, is much easier said than done

[Andy Mac]

Hi guys good comments thanks rodri welcome interesting perspective.

I am reviewing all my options and may have a new cunning plan....it will will take time and training and repairs butit should work....

More to follow when I have time to fully consider it.

[rodri_irizar]

Well!!!! Thats exactly what I want to say. You need time to think, not to jump hastily to make an ill-considered project.
Good luck.

[Andy Mac]

Things are getting tight at kalameyo paras landed today and almost broke through.
 
I will remember this paras to halve AV

[Andy Mac]

OK a few thoughts I am now dividing the map into two zones
 
West under General Douglas MacArthur and East uder Admiral Nimitz
 
West includes India - PI - NG
East everything else
 
Lets start with West.
 
Between Aus and India I have the following forces
 
1st Australian Army - STRIKE FORCE
I Aus Corps (3rd/6th, 8th and 9th Aus Divs and 4 Tank Regts)
IV Corps (5th, 7th,25th and 26th Indian Divs and 4 Armoured Regts)
I US Amphib Corps (Amercal, 27th, 40th and 41st US Divs and 4 Tank Regts)
III Indian Corps (4 x Motor Inf Bdes and 6 x Armoured Bdes - call it 3 full Armoured Divs....)
 
On Defence
2nd Australian Army - Australia
II Aus Corps (1st/2nd/4th and 5th Aus Divs plus 3 Tank Regts)
 
14th Army - India
Burma Corps (17th, 20th, 23rd and 39th Indian Divs plus 3 x Chindit Bdes plus 3 Armoured Regts)
XV Corps (7th Aus Div, 14th Indian Div, 32nd US Div, 4th Marine Regt)
 
In reserve moving to exchange with XV Corps Divs to allow them to withdraw and rest - 2nd and 18th British Div and 9th Indian Div
 
Building up in India for future operations probably when 2 of the three Divs currently on the Kalameyo front are returned from rest and refit after they are exchanged
 
XXXIII Corps - 19th Indian Div, 11th East African Div plus 2 Armoured Regts
 
In addition a further 5 US Infantry Regts, 5 Aus Bdes and 11 Indian/Brit/CW Bdes at various strengths are covering rear areas
 
 

[Andy Mac]

If I mass my strike force from both Indian and Australian theatres I can assemble the equivalent of 12 Infantry Divisions and 3 Armoured Divs plus say another 2 - 3 Divs in reserve and maybe 5 - 10 Independent Bdes or Regts.
 
PZB has sent 200,000 men into the jungle of the Assam border region weeks trek from the rail line where 3 Divs are holding them at katha and another 3 are holding (albeit barely) at kalameyo...

[Andy Mac]

Interesting thought....no ??
 
With that kind of force and even slight surprise could I attack say Java launch a 3 pronged assault. Forces from India/Perth and Capetown all meet in the middle and land in overwhelming force - I would need to wait until I had clear and total air and naval superiority i.e. late 43 but it is tempting..... 

[VSWG]

1. How many supplies will 12+ divs consume per day? Add to that supplies needed by your air force.
2. How many supplies can you deliver in the first wave, as long as KB is (hopefully) engaged somewhere else?
3. When PzB throws everything against you at Java, can you continue to ship in supplies?

This entire operation would depend on you being able to keep the SLOC intact. If you cannot do this (maybe because of another "unfortunate" carrier battle), you've got your entire army stranded.

[Andy Mac]

true but with enough ships anything is possible..maybe not now but in 4 or 5 months who knows

[ckammp]

Will Nimitz let MacArthur "borrow" USN CVs to achieve total air/sea superiority?

[DivePac88]

Java, added to what VSWG has stated.

Communications are too open to enemy interdiction, especially from his heavy carrier forces. The real possibility of his carriers intervening would require the participation of your carrier force. With the problems that his carrier force will be operating under LBA long range search, also close to his major fuel sources, and very close to large rearming/repair ports.

[beppi]

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

OK a few thoughts I am now dividing the map into two zones

West under General Douglas MacArthur and East uder Admiral Nimitz

West includes India - PI - NG
East everything else

Lets start with West.

Between Aus and India I have the following forces

1st Australian Army - STRIKE FORCE
I Aus Corps (3rd/6th, 8th and 9th Aus Divs and 4 Tank Regts)
IV Corps (5th, 7th,25th and 26th Indian Divs and 4 Armoured Regts)
I US Amphib Corps (Amercal, 27th, 40th and 41st US Divs and 4 Tank Regts)
III Indian Corps (4 x Motor Inf Bdes and 6 x Armoured Bdes - call it 3 full Armoured Divs....)

On Defence
2nd Australian Army - Australia
II Aus Corps (1st/2nd/4th and 5th Aus Divs plus 3 Tank Regts)

14th Army - India
Burma Corps (17th, 20th, 23rd and 39th Indian Divs plus 3 x Chindit Bdes plus 3 Armoured Regts)
XV Corps (7th Aus Div, 14th Indian Div, 32nd US Div, 4th Marine Regt)

In reserve moving to exchange with XV Corps Divs to allow them to withdraw and rest - 2nd and 18th British Div and 9th Indian Div

Building up in India for future operations probably when 2 of the three Divs currently on the Kalameyo front are returned from rest and refit after they are exchanged

XXXIII Corps - 19th Indian Div, 11th East African Div plus 2 Armoured Regts

In addition a further 5 US Infantry Regts, 5 Aus Bdes and 11 Indian/Brit/CW Bdes at various strengths are covering rear areas

Your Idea is tempting.

You need a Base with an AF which can be expended to 9 and if possible the base should already be at combined level >9 to store your supply.

You need enough divisions to protect your base whatever happens. I do not know how much units the enemy could throw into a fight but for my self I would go with 8+ divisions.

Then you need enough supply to remain in operation for at least 6 month without further supply. I would take at least 1 million or more.

You need enough engineers to explode the base to max/max so get more than enough engineers with you. I would take at least an equivalent of 2000 engineers with you. You need that base at air lvl 9 asap or you will lose.

Get enough crated fighters/DBs and TBs with you. If you can fly them in then better but have all of them ready to fly in the first turn. At least 500+ fighters to get the base safe form the air. The enemy will throw everything at your captured base.

Get enough naval support to drop all the stuff very quickly 600 – 700+.

Get all the proper HQs you need for the naval support, ground combat and air combat.

Get a strong surface protection as bombardment TFs can rip you apart even if you can get your base air proof. Take enough AOs and AE/AKEs to support your surface fleet. You can retreat you carriers but you can’t retreat you surface fleets. You can take all your battlewagons with you as your enemy will fight there with everything he has if the base is really threatening.

Those are 200k to 300k of troop capacity so count at least 150 xAPs or more and a lot of xAKs. And if you do such a big operation do it well prepared (every carrier plane at least an F6F or F4U-1), everything in place and more stuff is always better than less.

Right now even if KB is at Truk when you are spotted with full speed it only takes a week to get into position almost everywhere and if there is fuel (DEI) KB can move at full speed.

But I would opt right now for some low risk diversions which should be doable without carrier supremacy just to give you some opportunities and to distract him.

[traskott]

You can bring billions of engineers, but only a maximum of 250 will work in the base (per code). There is no Hellcats...yet, nor Corsairs.

one million of supplies ?? the bests AKs bring 7.000 tons of supplie.. 100 of them 700.000, but you don't have 100, so several convoys of 100+ AKs will be flying around...

Overall, I think the idea of an assault over Java is unaffordable right now... Besides, with all the toys PzB has...it can be a bloody job.

[Nemo121]

Are you sure about that hard limit? And does it apply to engineering vehicles also?

I've gone above 250 engineers ( effective --- using engineer vehicles ) and seen improvements vs 250 engineers...