Evaporating LCUs

[erstad]

Long-running PBEM with aztez, I believe we are both patched current.

We have a long-standing Allied siege of the Japanese at Ponape. When I ran the current turn, most of the allied units disappeared by the land combat phase, and there was only a handful of AV (versus something like 1700 the turn before).

Aztez says he didn't load the troops, and sent me a new turn. Not sure what he changed. Now, things look OK on day 1 land combat, but day 2 (2 day turns) shows the allied units again mostly gone and only 5 AV.

Turn attached is the second one.

[erstad]

Day 1 combat


Ground combat at Ponape (119,113)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 16780 troops, 324 guns, 43 vehicles, Assault Value = 632

Defending force 43555 troops, 1277 guns, 1011 vehicles, Assault Value = 1728

Japanese ground losses:
230 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled



Assaulting units:
10th Division
43rd Ind.Mixed Bde /1
5th South Seas Det.
Combined 8th SNLF /1
14th Garrison Unit /2
13th Ind.Mixed Rgt /1
4th Div /1
86th Nav Gd /1
I./90th Infantry Battalion
52nd/C Div /1
42nd Naval Guard Unit
Ponape Naval Fortress
21st Div /1
2nd JNAF AF Unit /1
24th Field AF Construction Battalion
27th Electric Engineer Regiment
35th JNAF AF Unit /4
115th JAAF AF Bn
38th JNAF AF Unit /1

Defending units:
5th USMC Tank Battalion
767th Tank Battalion
670th Tank Destroyer Battalion
1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
711th Tank Battalion
706th Tank Battalion
164th Infantry Regiment
21st Marine Regiment
93rd Infantry Division
102nd Combat Engineer Regiment
24th Marine Regiment
3rd Marine Regiment
4th USMC Tank Battalion
641st Towed Tank Destroyer Battalion
33rd Infantry Division
31st Infantry Div /8
134th Field Artillery Battalion
XXIV US Corps
III US Amphib Corps
V US Amphib Force
77th Coast AA Regiment
V US Amphib Corps
7th USMC Field Artillery Battalion

[erstad]

Day 2 combat


Ground combat at Ponape (119,113)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 15509 troops, 322 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 561

Defending force 9065 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 5



Assaulting units:
43rd Ind.Mixed Bde /1
10th Division
14th Garrison Unit
I./90th Infantry Battalion
86th Nav Gd /1
Ponape Naval Fortress
4th Div /1
52nd/C Div /1
5th South Seas Det.
13th Ind.Mixed Rgt /1
42nd Naval Guard Unit
Combined 8th SNLF /1
21st Div /1
24th Field AF Construction Battalion
27th Electric Engineer Regiment
35th JNAF AF Unit /4
115th JAAF AF Bn
2nd JNAF AF Unit /1
38th JNAF AF Unit /1

Defending units:
93rd Infantry Division
3rd Marine Regiment
33rd Infantry Division
21st Marine Regiment
31st Infantry Div /8

[USSAmerica]

Have you confirmed with your opponent that they are actually gone on the turn after that combat?  If they are gone, were they maybe scheduled for withdrawal?  

[michaelm75au]

Did they load on to the transports by themselves? Sometimes an invasion can be deemed to have failed and units will go back onto transports.
I have only ever seen this occur after one or two turns following an invasion while there are still troops being unloaded.

[michaelm75au]

Yep. Looking at the save, those missing LCUs are on transports fleeing the scene.

[michaelm75au]

And before you ask:
While subsequent landings occur, a check is made to determine if the invading units should withdraw if not building up fast enough.

For Japan:
if invader's attack strength landed in hex*10 < defender's strength plus a check based on landing TF leader's land+aggression+skill, then re-embarks landing force

For Allies:
if invader's attack strength landed in hex*5 < defender's strength plus a check based on landing TF leader's land+aggression+skill, then re-embarks landing force



It should be reported in the operation's report when this happens.
--- from Allied report ----
LCU 164th Infantry Regiment reported destroyed
LCU 77th Coast AA Regiment reported destroyed
TF 378 re-embarks landing force at Ponape and retires
LCU 641st Towed Tank Destroyer Battalion reported destroyed
LCU 134th Field Artillery Battalion reported destroyed
LCU 767th Tank Battalion reported destroyed
LCU 7th USMC Field Artillery Battalion reported destroyed
LCU 706th Tank Battalion reported destroyed
LCU 711th Tank Battalion reported destroyed
LCU 670th Tank Destroyer Battalion reported destroyed
LCU 4th USMC Tank Battalion reported destroyed
LCU 5th USMC Tank Battalion reported destroyed


[Note I have just pulled this from the code. No discussion as to right or wrong.]

[Rainer]

For Japan:
if invader's attack strength landed in hex*10 < defender's strength plus a check based on landing TF leader's land+aggression+skill, then re-embarks landing force

For Allies:
if invader's attack strength landed in hex*5 < defender's strength plus a check based on landing TF leader's land+aggression+skill, then re-embarks landing force

Good - nay, vital - to know!
Thanks Michael

[aztez]

Intresting indeed.

I know the enemy is flying troops via airlift here and that lift seems able to bring in big guns also not just ground units which I find odd as well.

I don't want to go into too much details here but this invasion is definately not an lost cause...

Lets just say that the AV value is almost 1:3 againts japanese now and the odds would not have gotten any better... even by saying that I reveal too much to my opponent...

Is there a way around this so called retreat / embark?

Change leaders perhaps since this definately is an game breaker here no doubt about it.

Just hate to throw away so much time on this PBEM.

[erstad]

Do only the newly landed troops count for the check, or all troops in the hex?

If the latter, it doesn't seem like the check should trigger as he has ~3x my AV, and that's before the *5 multiplier.

If the former, is a workaround to either unload lots of troops or none in a given turn? Also, would a check be triggered if one is just unloading supply?

Even though I'm the evil opponent, I do agree with Aztez that there is no way these particular units should be reembarking; they have 3x the AV and have been established on the island for many, many turns.

Edit: Is the check based on raw AV, or adjusted AV? And if the latter, does it include adjustments for things like defender fort level, even if no actual attack is taking place? Any info would be helpful as aztez and I will have to figure out some way to work past this.

[erstad]

I know the enemy is flying troops via airlift here and that lift seems able to bring in big guns also not just ground units which I find odd as well.

There's part of a CD unit that was airlifted in but the biggest guns that came via air for that unit are 8cm T88 DP guns and some 70-85mm howitzers and mountain guns. So not to worry! (The 12.7cm and 14cm guns were part of the Ponape Naval Fortress unit, which starts as a static unit on Ponape)

[Rainer]

What makes you think a prudent retreat is a game breaker?

EDIT: Withdrawn. See next post by michaelm (active bug hunting)

[michaelm75au]

Assault value used for re-embark check:
1. Defender - sum LCUs in same hex for same player
Unit AV (raw - value show on army screen IIRC) + 10%AV if in range of a Corp or Command HQ

2. Attacker - sum LCUs in same hex for same player
Unit AV (raw - value show on army screen IIRC) adjusted for % damage
*2 if in range of a Corp and Command HQ, or +10%AV if in range of a Corp or Command HQ
*2 if prep level >80
*2 if fatigue <40
*2 if experience >random(60 to 80)

Note that units that have not landed yet don't count for the AV in the hex.

I suspect it is triggered while any landing is occurring in a contested hex.

[michaelm75au]

I think I have found a hole.

A value of 99 unload phases from the amphib TF is used to determine that a landing has failed.
When I had another look at the amphib TF, it's current unload count is 96!!!

Three more and it is automatically failing despite the passing the AV check.

I have updated the save you have attached here to reset the counter to 20 - lower numbers have unloading implications - for this TF.
You could use this save to rerun this turn.

A workaround for this problem is to stop unloading, withdraw a few hex and then have the TF re-enter destination hex and unload.
A TF seems to do about 3-6 unloading phases a day. So I would use the workaround every 10 days.

It (96 unloading phases) seems an excessive long time for one TF to unload.

[michaelm75au]

Here is&nbsp; the same report using the updated save.
As you can see, the Allies haven't fled because it took 99 landing phases to unload the troops and supplies.[:D]

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR May 19, 44
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
&nbsp;
Ground combat at Ponape (119,113)
&nbsp;
Japanese Bombardment attack
&nbsp;
Attacking force 16780 troops, 324 guns, 43 vehicles, Assault Value = 632
&nbsp;
Defending force 43555 troops, 1277 guns, 1011 vehicles, Assault Value = 1728
&nbsp;
Japanese ground losses:
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 174 casualties reported
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Squads: 1 destroyed, 13 disabled
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Guns lost 13 (1 destroyed, 12 disabled)
&nbsp;
&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Assaulting units:
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Combined 8th SNLF /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 86th Nav Gd /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 43rd Ind.Mixed Bde /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; I./90th Infantry Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 10th Division
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 42nd Naval Guard Unit
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Ponape Naval Fortress
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 52nd/C Div /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 13th Ind.Mixed Rgt /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 5th South Seas Det.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 4th Div /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 14th Garrison Unit /2
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 21st Div /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 35th JNAF AF Unit /4
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 115th JAAF AF Bn
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 24th Field AF Construction Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 27th Electric Engineer Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2nd JNAF AF Unit /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 38th JNAF AF Unit /1
&nbsp;
Defending units:
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 24th Marine Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 641st Towed Tank Destroyer Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 670th Tank Destroyer Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 4th USMC Tank Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 21st Marine Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 5th USMC Tank Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 33rd Infantry Division
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 3rd Marine Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 164th Infantry Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 706th Tank Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 102nd Combat Engineer Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 767th Tank Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 711th Tank Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 93rd Infantry Division
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 31st Infantry Div /8
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; XXIV US Corps
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; V US Amphib Corps
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; V US Amphib Force
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 77th Coast AA Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 134th Field Artillery Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; III US Amphib Corps
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 7th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
&nbsp;
&nbsp;--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
&nbsp;
Ground combat at Ponape (119,113)
&nbsp;
Allied Deliberate attack
&nbsp;
Attacking force 35430 troops, 1181 guns, 972 vehicles, Assault Value = 1728
&nbsp;
Defending force 19036 troops, 334 guns, 123 vehicles, Assault Value = 620
&nbsp;
Allied adjusted assault: 858
&nbsp;
Japanese adjusted defense: 2393
&nbsp;
Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 3)
&nbsp;
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+)
Attacker: disruption(-)
&nbsp;
Japanese ground losses:
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1430 casualties reported
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Squads: 67 destroyed, 72 disabled
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Non Combat: 46 destroyed, 57 disabled
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Engineers: 3 destroyed, 9 disabled
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Vehicles lost 26 (10 destroyed, 16 disabled)
&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Allied ground losses:
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1760 casualties reported
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Squads: 7 destroyed, 136 disabled
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Non Combat: 22 destroyed, 80 disabled
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Engineers: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Vehicles lost 38 (10 destroyed, 28 disabled)
&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Assaulting units:
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 767th Tank Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 670th Tank Destroyer Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 24th Marine Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 93rd Infantry Division
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 4th USMC Tank Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 5th USMC Tank Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 21st Marine Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 641st Towed Tank Destroyer Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 164th Infantry Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 706th Tank Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 33rd Infantry Division
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 3rd Marine Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 711th Tank Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 102nd Combat Engineer Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 31st Infantry Div /8
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; XXIV US Corps
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 134th Field Artillery Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; V US Amphib Force
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 77th Coast AA Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; V US Amphib Corps
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; III US Amphib Corps
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 7th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
&nbsp;
Defending units:
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 13th Ind.Mixed Rgt /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 5th South Seas Det.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 4th Div /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 52nd/C Div /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 14th Garrison Unit /2
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Combined 8th SNLF /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; I./90th Infantry Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 86th Nav Gd /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Ponape Naval Fortress
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 42nd Naval Guard Unit
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 43rd Ind.Mixed Bde /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 10th Division
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 21st Div /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 115th JAAF AF Bn
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 27th Electric Engineer Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 24th Field AF Construction Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2nd JNAF AF Unit /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 35th JNAF AF Unit /4
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 38th JNAF AF Unit /1


AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR May 20, 44
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
&nbsp;
Ground combat at Ponape (119,113)
&nbsp;
Japanese Bombardment attack
&nbsp;
Attacking force 15164 troops, 323 guns, 35 vehicles, Assault Value = 534
&nbsp;
Defending force 42331 troops, 1277 guns, 991 vehicles, Assault Value = 1626
&nbsp;
Japanese ground losses:
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 102 casualties reported
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Squads: 7 destroyed, 0 disabled
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 0 disabled
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Guns lost 10 (9 destroyed, 1 disabled)
&nbsp;
&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Assaulting units:
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 42nd Naval Guard Unit
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 13th Ind.Mixed Rgt /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 52nd/C Div /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 14th Garrison Unit
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 4th Div /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Ponape Naval Fortress
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 43rd Ind.Mixed Bde /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Combined 8th SNLF /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 86th Nav Gd /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 5th South Seas Det.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 10th Division
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; I./90th Infantry Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 21st Div /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 35th JNAF AF Unit /4
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 115th JAAF AF Bn
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2nd JNAF AF Unit /1
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 24th Field AF Construction Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 27th Electric Engineer Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 38th JNAF AF Unit /1
&nbsp;
Defending units:
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 4th USMC Tank Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 5th USMC Tank Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 24th Marine Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 3rd Marine Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 93rd Infantry Division
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 641st Towed Tank Destroyer Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 670th Tank Destroyer Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 711th Tank Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 767th Tank Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 33rd Infantry Division
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 706th Tank Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 102nd Combat Engineer Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 21st Marine Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 164th Infantry Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 31st Infantry Div /8
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; V US Amphib Corps
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; III US Amphib Corps
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 77th Coast AA Regiment
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; XXIV US Corps
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; V US Amphib Force
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 134th Field Artillery Battalion
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 7th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

[erstad]

Thanks, Michael, you're a treasure to this community! You've saved us a lot of time messing with different leaders or settings or ... to try to work past this.

From the stuff my CDs have fired at, I suspect Aztez is unloading supply (not troops) from xAKs, which might be part of the reason its been unloading so long. Me, I would use my AKAs or LSTs, but who am I to argue if my opponent wants to use xak? [:D]

As you note, now that the problem is identified one can work around if it needed.

[witpqs]

Thanks, Michael! Good catch and very important in the more hotly contested PBM's.

[aztez]

Thank you very Michael. Absolutely fantastic and we have now moved past that "turn".

That did the trick so to speak! [:)] ...

Oh, witpqs I will do complete update during the weekend. The new job has kept me busy but things are looking up.