Hit Probability and some other related questions

[Big-J-Q]

When the text says that there is e.g a 15% chance to hit target, what does that actually mean?

Is there

- a 15% chance to destroy the target / cause casualty.
- a 15% chance to hit, but not necessarily harm the target, possibly causing suppression.

I suppose this probability can never reach 100%?

Is it worth it to shoot at enemies with 2% chances? I mean, does it cause suppression/ get enemies pinned?

How do I improve my hit chances? Even with short distances the prob. is depressively low Am I correct to assume to shooting improves chances? Like, after one shot, my warriors get a better aim? Are there any other ways?

[Jim1954]

Have you looked at the manual for this info. It is pretty well explained around page 60. When you open the game, select World At War link to the right of the screen and it will direct you to the thing. Actually this is a very valuable tool that deserves to be hard printed. Great reference for newbies (and old geezers that forget).

[Irinami]

Heh, welcome to the firefight. Here's a rule-of-thumb I tend to use:

Every hex you close with the enemy will increase your odds of hitting by 10%. Every two hexes you move will decrease your odds of hitting 15% (above and beyond that +10%), OR by 20% for 3 hexes.

Whassat mean? It often doesn't pay off to close more than one hex with the enemy.

Your 2% chances do cause suppression. In a vital situation, I've had everyone open up on a unit. For example, there was a T34 about to roll over my German crew. There was the crew, a shot-up squad, and a bunch of my prime movers around. So I opened up with everyone on the tank. I lost 2 prime movers and the infantry squad fled, but when all was said and done that tank was too suppressed to spot the Engineers moved up behind it. Boom, one tank assaulted and destroyed.

On the other hand, always look at your ammo. Fighting the Russians means I can't afford to have my GE Mcycle squads fire at targets of opportunity that have less than a 15-25% chance to hit. Same with my 8-Rad's; they just don't carry enough AP/APCR to make it worth attacking enemy armour until my armour gets in range too. (Lord I wish you could turn off ammo columns like you can turn off weapons. Saving that APCR would be nice.)

In short... yeah, check the manual.

[rbrunsman]

These are the things I consider before I take any shot:
Do I have the ammo to spare; have I been spotted; do I have a better target; would it be better to shoot with another unit first; has the target already fired at my unit (he has a better chance of hitting me with successive shots); what is the hit % (this is my last consideration unless I am using a valuable unit that I don't want to risk to return Op Fire)

A Nashorn is a great example: They can hit and kill almost anything at great range as long as they can get off 2 shots. Their armor is very weak however, so I will suppress my target or anything that has LOS to my Nashorn with anything I have before risking an Op Fire kill of my Nashorn.

Another good thing to remember about "no kill" shots is that when a unit has any suppression, it suffers a loss of accuracy and movement points. So it is often worth harrassment fire just to help you keep track of where a unit could possibly move to. Think of it this way: A Tiger that you have no idea where it is hidden is much more dangerous than one that you can see. Keeping its movement down goes a long way to keeping an eye on the beast.

[Svennemir]

There are two major cases: firing at infantry and firing at vehicles.

If you're firing at vehicles the probabilities are just about correct. Actually I believe the probability to hit is a tiny bit higher than stated for "splash" reasons (game dynamics).

If firing at infantry the percentages are *way* off. I have no idea how the percentages are currently estimated, but the number of men in a squad is among determining factors. Actually I think the game makes a number of rolls for each soldier, but there are lots of deviations from the stated percentage. First off, splash damage plays a big role especially in close combat. Then rifled are modelled differently than SMGs - in 6.1 rifles had a very difficult time hitting infantry at ranges >4 hexes. This has been adjusted, but I still think the "4 hex effect" is there.

There are probably other reasons as to why percentages are off.

[Capt. Pixel]

On the point of wasting ammunition, setting your Opp Fire range is also important. ('Y' key or on the unit info screen)

Why set that tank or TD to it's maximum range, when it's most likely to get a hit at a much closer range? I generally set my tanks to 16 to 24 hexes, depending on terrain and visibility, for this reason.

A Sherman can hit a target at 50 hexes sometimes , but not often. If it DOES hit, the target better be thinly armored or the round will never penetrate anyway. That'd be one of those "Wow! Wouldya look at that!" moments.

On the percentages, I've noticed that the percentage displayed while targetting isn't always the same as that displayed when firing. Like an ATG that targets at 7%, but when it fires, the percentage jumps to 35%. I just take the shots that seem reasonable and don't pay much attention to the targetting %.

I've seen percentages in excess of 100%. This happens quite often with allied aircraft in the later years. They still can miss, by the way.

[vahauser]

Another factor to consider is that the percentage you are seeing is a "Base" percentage which is modified by many factors. It takes some experience to get a feel for what your real chances are to hit a given target under given circumstances.

Something to keep in mind, though, is that it's sometimes better to hold fire. You can usually tell the veteran players from the novices because the veterans usually know when to take a shot and when to hold fire.