Victory Possible With Axis?

[Zoetermeer]

Mostly a question for the testers and those who have played through full GC campaigns - is it possible to win a major victory with the Axis (against Soviet AI)? This game is so true to history that it seems to me it'd be VERY difficult to accomplish this. Anybody done it, or for that matter, anybody taken Moscow and made it into the Russian interior? (Sorry if there are already AAR's out there describing something like this, but I'm wondering if anyone has done it and could describe in a broad sense the strategy they used).

Thanks all!

[Flaviusx]

I'm pretty sure Andy or Jon could beat the Soviet AI at normal and get a win if they did a full playthrough from 41-5.

Jon has actually taken Moscow in a 42 campaign playtest. (This was before I joined the dev team.)

I bitched and moaned so much about that they decided to shut me up by recruiting me as a playtester. [:D]

[karonagames]

In my very early tests back in March, playing on normal, I achieved the decisive victory conditions by Turn 85, since then everything including the victory conditions changed. I think Jon (Pyledriver) also did it back then. I don't think anyone has had a chance to get that deep into the game since the major changes were made.

Bottom line is that against the AI on Normal I think a Victory is achievable within 100-120 turns.

Against a human of equal experience and ability, I think it is unlikely that a decisive victor can be achieved. I think Moscow and Leningrad can be taken, but if the SU saves enough of his industry with evacuation and doesn't lose more men in 1941 than they lost historically, then pushing beyond Moscow to the Volga is going to be very tough. Eventually attrition is going to wear the Axis down.

[Flaviusx]

Bob, the interesting question to me now is: can the Axis get a draw in a PBEM?

I agree with you that in PBEM between two competent players, an Axis win isn't in the cards. But a draw...that's up in the air.

[karonagames]

Bob, the interesting question to me now is: can the Axis get a draw in a PBEM?

I only have theories at the moment, and not enough evidence. Our 1943 test was too buggy and the rules changes came too late for me to feel confident that the Red Juggernaut can be kept out of Berlin. I'm fairly confident I know the "breaking point" for the Axis army, but I haven't been able to test if the rules changes can keep the Axis above that point for long enough.

I said to Joel when I started testing that the "6th Army factor" was my main reason for playing the game - how will the war turn out if you don't lose 20 odd divisions at Stalingrad?

[ComradeP]

As I replied earlier Bob: as those divisions were mostly not nearly full strength by the time they were isolated, I'm not convinced you'd feel their loss more than when they would be in line and would be getting hammered by, say, artillery. I'd say you'd feel the loss of the minor Axis divisions more. 6th Army will reform, the minor Axis won't.

I believe a minor victory/keeping the Soviets out of the Axis countries aside from Romania and Finland (though I think it's possible to prevent their capture, but you might get an unlucky surrender roll) is possible, but a decisive victory is going to be a pipe dream even against an opponent who blunders through 1941, as the Axis simply don't have the means to capture the historical intended "stop line".

What I fear most from my upcoming PBEM against notenome is not any particular Soviet strategy, the Tank or mechanized corps or the artillery divisions. No, what I fear is the hundreds of bi-planes and tactical bombers that can wreck any attack from 1942 onwards. I'm more or less praying that the recent fix indeed made the air terror less common or that at the least the Luftwaffe will show up. Automatically losing at least 600 men in every attack due to attacks by some poorly trained pilots flying mediocre to good tactical bombers, prior to the start of every attack from 1942 onwards is probably the only thing that will make me throw in the towel early, as it's just not sustainable and it can't be coped with if no friendly fighters show up.

[Speedysteve]

I'd be with you there Comrade. It's not right IMO. WIll make the game silly for the Axis come 43.....

[vinnie71]

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

As I replied earlier Bob: as those divisions were mostly not nearly full strength by the time they were isolated, I'm not convinced you'd feel their loss more than when they would be in line and would be getting hammered by, say, artillery. I'd say you'd feel the loss of the minor Axis divisions more. 6th Army will reform, the minor Axis won't.

Why don't they reform? Is it a game decision or just because these countries do not have sufficient manpower? Historically Romania and Hungary both had their armies devastated in Stalingrad, but were able to rebuild their armies to a significant degree during the winter of 43 and 44.

[Dr. Foo]

Any chance of changing the odds? War in Europe (Decision Games) offers an Axis build titled Severe Weather Equipment it costs a tons of production points and it will cost you in units you could have built for the offensive; however, it pretty much negates the severe attrition effects of winter.
 
The S.W.E. simulates the Germans being prepared for a winter campaign. It's a-historical but it adds and interesting "what if" to the equation.

[karonagames]

I think all this will be down to modders to create these kind of variants. Some guys seem to be getting the hang of the editor already.

[MechFO]

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

What I fear most from my upcoming PBEM against notenome is not any particular Soviet strategy, the Tank or mechanized corps or the artillery divisions. No, what I fear is the hundreds of bi-planes and tactical bombers that can wreck any attack from 1942 onwards. I'm more or less praying that the recent fix indeed made the air terror less common or that at the least the Luftwaffe will show up. Automatically losing at least 600 men in every attack due to attacks by some poorly trained pilots flying mediocre to good tactical bombers, prior to the start of every attack from 1942 onwards is probably the only thing that will make me throw in the towel early, as it's just not sustainable and it can't be coped with if no friendly fighters show up.

Don't even have to play PBEM to see that. The 43-45 scenario is unplayable IMO even against the AI due to any counter attack being immediately blasted apart by U2's and IL2's. Their effectiveness in comparison to ALL other tac aircraft is totally disproportionate. IL4's and Pe2's seem to be fairly "normal".

My record to date is 4000+ men and 50+ guns from an Inf Div being lost just in the Air Phase due to 300-400 U2/IL2.

I'd be spamming the forum with screen shots, except I don't think the devs will pay much attention until complaints start coming from several different people.

The below screenshot is prior to the interception bug being fixed, and the display bug has also been fixed.

This is sometime during the U/IL'2 attack phases(the other bombers hadn't done their attacks yet) so not yet complete, however, the PzDiv is for all practical purposes incapable of any action.

[Hard Sarge]

just in case, since nobody remembers, I have won the game a number of times as either side, with a DV, on Challenging, so yes, it can be done

[Joel Billings]

From the attack you posted:

Germans 155 fighters 70 bombers vs. 16 fighters and 510 bombers. The results were due to a bug. If you were to fly that same mission using the beta 4, my guess is that you would see 150-200 Soviet planes shot down.

Gary had used a save we got from the person that first reported this problem where there were about 300-400 attacking Soviet planes with more fighters than 16, and about 110 German fighters. IIRC Gary said there were about 130 Soviet planes destroyed.

Now there won't be lots of missions where 100-150 German fighters show up, but then there don't have to be if you end up losing hundreds of planes each time this happens.

[ComradeP]

Why don't they reform? Is it a game decision or just because these countries do not have sufficient manpower? Historically Romania and Hungary both had their armies devastated in Stalingrad, but were able to rebuild their armies to a significant degree during the winter of 43 and 44.

That's a question for Gary, I'm not too excited about minor Axis not being able to reform myself, as it also means that their support units don't come back, and you'll lose some of those fairly rapidly.

MechFO: we all hear you, as we've been reporting this ourselves, but it's still unclear how this is possible. The whole business with the "notional number" deciding how many planes are being send sometimes appears to be shaky, especially as the "notional number" doesn't seem to be remotely the same for both sides.

I've suffered hundreds of losses from a swarm of bi-planes in each attack, which is the reason why I stopped testing 1942 for the moment as it ruins the entire scenario. Of course, it gets worse with IL-2's.

[MechFO]

Hi Joel

That was me and I stated that this was prior to the interception bug being fixed.

However it doesn't change the disproportionate damage inflicted by the U2/IL2 combo in comparison to other tac bombers.

[ComradeP]

I'd be fine with the IL-2's doing good damage, provided the quality Axis tactical bombers do so too (no clear indication of that thus far). The U-2's should most certainly not perform nearly as well. Considering how slow they are, it's something of a miracle that they're not being shredded by AA fire.

[Joel Billings]

IIRC the IL-2 has a lot of weapons on it, but the U-2 baffles me. It would be interesting to have some tests run to see just exactly what it can do relative to other planes.

And thanks for the help on finding and fixing the bug. IIRC Pieter (ComradeP) was the tester that first reported it during testing and it was fixed, but somehow the fix was deleted.

[Speedysteve]

Thanks guys. Be good if there was a tweak to prevent wholesale slaughtering by masses of Sturmovik's....guess it must be tricky though since they should be a threat and were a damn fine low level attack plane and it has to be balanced without them being nerfed!

[ComradeP]

As said: I'm fine with the IL-2 being a good tactical bomber, but the numbers in which it appears could use some finetuning. 500 IL-2's supporting two corps is a big number, not to mention even more than that supporting one or two divisions.

[Rasputitsa]

ORIGINAL: Zoetermeer

Mostly a question for the testers and those who have played through full GC campaigns - is it possible to win a major victory with the Axis (against Soviet AI)? This game is so true to history that it seems to me it'd be VERY difficult to accomplish this. Anybody done it, or for that matter, anybody taken Moscow and made it into the Russian interior? (Sorry if there are already AAR's out there describing something like this, but I'm wondering if anyone has done it and could describe in a broad sense the strategy they used).

Thanks all!

If it can be done surely it will be based on not dispersing forces over too many objectives in 1941 and failing to achieve any of them, but in preparing for winter in good time and recognising that Axis victory may not come until 1942. Not wasting effort in spreading forces all over Southern Russia, in an economic strategy which would not pay-off for years. Not in attacking a front in 1943 that your enemy has spent months preparing, but using Manstein's back-hand strategy, pull back and wait to hit your enemy when he comes out of his defences, which he must do, or accept a draw.

Play the historical strategy and you will always get the same result, change the strategy and who knows. [:)]