Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[JohnDillworth]

Uh oh, John, you're dealing with a man who sometimes has trouble thinking abstractly.  You'll have to explain your Hamlet reference.

Shakespeare's longest play and not my favorite. Hamlet was a Prince brilliant at many things and had a great mind. So great, he could see all sides of any argument. Therefore, he thought about everything with great clarity, but could never make up his mind. Therefore, he always failed to take action at critical times. Essentially, a man that could not make up his mind

[JohnDillworth]

Shakespeare's longest play and not my favorite. Hamlet was a Prince brilliant at many things and had a great mind. So great, he could see all sides of any argument. Therefore, he thought about everything with great clarity, but could never make up his mind. Therefore, he always failed to take action at critical times. Essentially, a man that could not make up his mind

you know now that I look at this description Hamlet is a lot like Vizzini from the Princess Bride:

[Canoerebel]

Lord have mercy!  A man that can cite Hamlet and Vizzini in the same breath!

The more I hang around the forums, the more I realize just how varied and rather remarkable the inhabitants are (sorry to use you as an example to heap praises upon, John, and thereby probably make you uncomfortable, but it's true - not just you, but also many other folks).

The Hamlet parallel is interesting and might well apply to me too.

Capt.Harlock:  I just went for a nice long run in the mud and muck and gave things alot of thought.  I am sending me carriers back to the Pacific.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock
Assuming that you have: 1)Upgraded all TBD Devastators to TBF Avengers, and 2)Incorporated two or more Atlanta class CLAA's into your escorts, I add my vote to this idea...

I have four CV TFs (the fourth is RN). I don't think I have enough Atlanta-class CLAAs to commit two to each TF. But I'll hunt and peck to see what I can scrounge up. Thanks for the suggestion: you prompted me to recall CLAA San Juan from Mombasa, where she was part of a large combat TF. I'll send her to Capetown and then on to Balboa.

But the real question: is CLAA flak (or any flak, for that matter) effective in the game?

[Xxzard]

Flak will help throw off the aim of the attacking aircraft and reduce hit rates on your ships. This can be at a pretty noticeable rate with heavy flak. Still, I would never count on it. Honestly, while the CLAA's are nice, I have never seen them as essential. Substitute in two or three more destroyers with DP guns and you have effectively the same amount of AA firepower.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Chickenboy, the thought of trapping and destroying the Japanese army in India is enticing.  Such an operation would take the commitment of every Allied resource available, including carriers, and would still be very difficult to achieve.

I'm leaning against anything of that nature because it would essentially eliminate the option of moving on Sumatra since my carriers and shipping would be heavily involved in the Bay of Bengal for many months to come and would likely draw Japan's full attention to the region.  The move would also open up the Pacific to Japanese moves, which would be a real problem for me going forward.

Alternatively, I don't think I can proceed with the Sumatra campaign yet.  I don't have enough troops available - I don't think 4+ divisions is sufficient - I think I need at least 8.  Plus, at this early date I do not think Allied carriers would be able to keep the supply lines open to Sumatra.  I think the odds are high that the KB would win any major carrier clash.

For those reasons, I think the Allies are best served by (1) waging a frontal assault in India (with the addition of para-assaults); (2) keeping the carriers hidden for now; and (3) invading Sumatra in the spring of '43, timed to coincide with what will appear to be a massive Allied invasion of the Kuriles (to draw Brad's carriers north).

I hear ya, but the longer it takes for you to pull off the Sumatra gambit, the lower the potential yield in terms of surprise / trapping IJA in India. If you wait until 1943, my guess is that you will not achieve surprise, as that prospect becomes an increasingly obvious route of advance for the Allies as they gain strength in the region. In the critical words of either Model (or von Manteuffel, can't remember which) this frontal assault may be seen as a 'small solution'.

[vicberg]

A word of warning....look at Yubari/Fatr AAR. Sumatra is far from supply and requires carrier support to pull off. Once you are there, you are committed, if you are going in with any force. It enables the decisive carrier engagement the japs are looking for in 1942. Warning warning will robinson, or hamlet....

[Canoerebel]

Well, both Chickenboy and vicberg are exactly right, and that's the horn of my dilemma. Sumatra requires surprise which means as early a move as possible, but Allied carriers cannot keep the supply lines open in '42 (and possibly even in '43, though the later the move the more troops and stuff I can bring).

I'm weighing these competing considerations constantly. There's a chance I'll decide against Sumatra, but I'm still hoping that a massive feint towards the Kuriles around March 1 will draw the KB.

Hard to believe the offensive is still still five months away (though all the pieces - especially ships - will have to be in the right place by early January).

[witpqs]

It's not really a dilemma until you have the minimum required forces prepared for the operation. Then you have a dilemma "Now or later?" Until then you only have the option to surprise the hell out of the enemy with an operation that fails.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Well, both Chickenboy and vicberg are exactly right, and that's the horn of my dilemma. Sumatra requires surprise which means as early a move as possible, but Allied carriers cannot keep the supply lines open in '42 (and possibly even in '43, though the later the move the more troops and stuff I can bring).

I'm weighing these competing considerations constantly. There's a chance I'll decide against Sumatra, but I'm still hoping that a massive feint towards the Kuriles around March 1 will draw the KB.

Hard to believe the offensive is still still five months away (though all the pieces - especially ships - will have to be in the right place by early January).

Sumatra has always looked "huh?" to me due to the utter density of highly-developed IJA airbases at the junction between Sumatra and Java, Scenarios 2's air mechanics, and the need to depend on Allied CV air for a LONG time to get the ships in and unloaded, then resupply. Again, I sound like a broken shipyard record, but that piece of dirt is a long way from help for the Allies, while his back is to Singapore. There is a LOT of shallow, bad-sub water in that area too for you to deal with if using your subs for pickets or to hold back his surface TFs, and IJN subs have short re-arming runs, again, to Singers or Saigon. They can intercept in deep water to the SW and nibble away at your resupply. You won't have land-based ASW to help. Shallow water also favors his mines in non-base-hex open water choke points.

Based on your experience in India, do you think 8 division equivalents is enough to dislodge him? He'll have had 1.5 years to fortify as well. Sumatra isn't great tank country, but has decent RRs for his use from the north.

Overall, I think you'll get creamed from Java and naval thrusts south from areas inside his "lake." Sumatra isn't a stepping stone from a firm base of logistics--it's a leap into the darkness.

As for the Kuriles, I know you love you some feints, CR, but has be bitten on ANY in this game yet? Perhaps your reputation preceeds you. [:)]

Just my two centavos.

[Canoerebel]

witpqs - concise and dead right.
 
Bullwinkle - very persuasive.
 
Well, I have some time to think about things, so I think I will.
 
As for whether Brad has taken any of my feints, I can't tell very much from this side of the front lines.  I think he's paying very careful attention and building up his NoPac bases substantially - at least from SigInt and base development.
 
If I don't move on Sumatra, I think the Allies might go for a CenPac route followed by a move on New Guinea.  But for now I remain on the defensive.
 

[princep01]

Your AAR gets even more interesting now that you are at least TALKING about offensive actions, Admiral. Hurt those LYBs. Hurt them in India, smack them in the Pacific. Worry them in the Kuriles, but get really ready to fight one last defensive battle before 1943. He may be pre-occupied with RL, but before this year is out, you're going to face the bear in multiple locations. Nothing will upset his offensive plans more than you hectoring and raiding his units and LOCs. I kid you not though, you may think he transitioning to the defensive, but I don't share that view. He is going to go after you in India. Fortunately, you're ready there. Fiji will be attacked, maybe Midway too. All will occur before the end of 1942.

[paullus99]

Just right - he's already committed one costly mistake (India without going for the kill) & he's probably getting ready to stick his head out again to try to force you to fight (in particular, with your carriers). Let him attack, then as soon as he puts the KB in play, you can initiate one of your own offensive plans.

[JohnDillworth]

But the real question: is CLAA flak (or any flak, for that matter) effective in the game?

I think the the single most f$%^ed weapon in the game is the Allied 5"/38 (although a case can be made for Allied medium bombers). That is the dual purpose gun with the proximity fused ordinance that should be awesome in 44-45, and maybe 43 but is just not modeled correctly. I understand that it is something to do with the dual-purpose nature of the gun. Something in the code prevents it from acting as an effective AA gun.
Although this is the primary weapon of the CLAA's it's not a factor this early in the war. I think the 40mm gun rules the roost at this point, more = better.

[beppi]

The only advise i can give you is.
Do not, i repeat do not launch any attacks prior to 6/43 where you have to only rely on your carriers.

Use a more passive approach based on an interlocking base system or attack him at the borders where KB cannot be there quite fast. A carrier engagement prior to 6/43 has a greater chance to fail for the allies than for japan. If he attacks you somewhere with KB then you have a chance but do not do any major offensive invasion with them far away from your large bases and/or large airfields. You won´t loose the game if you lose an carrier engagement but it will kick you back.

How is the current situation in northern australia or SW pacific ? Use your Engis and grow some bases somewhere there. There are a quite a lot of possibilities to attack begin of 43 where not even one carrier is neccesary.

[Canoerebel]

As I wait for the next turn (in-box anxiety), some observations:

Jalagon: After pouring over the map and thinking things through, I'm nearly positive Brad is reconfiguring his forces and intends to stay and fight. I think he's moved two divisions out of Jalagon, on to the east and one to the south, to guard the hexes from which his army entered Jalagon. That leaves him with perhaps four or five divisions in the hex (not enough for him to do anything until major reinforcements arrive) while protecting his flanks. This is, I think, a big mistake. He should have attacked immediately. As it is, we're about to engage in a major campaign in which the Allies can match anything Brad commits plus have a decided advantage in the air.

Sumatra: This plan has been in place since day one. My original objective was to land with overwhelming force in the autumn of 1943 - at a point in which Allied carriers will be numerous enough to handle the KB. An important part of the plan was to create two believable, major diversions - one in the Kuriles and one somewhere in the Coral Sea/Solomons region. That plan still may be feasible, though the jury is out. In the meantime, though, I agree that an invasion of Sumatra in '42 or the first half of '43 is a recipe for disaster.

Initiative: The Allies are still anticipating Japanese attacks in the Pacific. In order of likelihood: Fiji, Midway, Baker Island (or vicinity), New Zealand, Aleutians. All of these posts are well-garrisoned, so I'm not scrambling to add troops. I would like to boost Fiji and New Zealand a bit, and have some troops heading that way. The Allies have troops pre-positioned and prepped to move once the KB shows itself at some point, thus indicating that distant points are free from that menace:

Wake/Marcus: If the KB shows up around Fiji, the Allies will move on Marcus and Wake. All troops are prepped and at Pearl Harbor. The Allies have two CVE, with three more scheduled to arrive in less than a month.

Noumea: If the KB shows up in CenPac, the Allies will soon be ready to move on Noumea, which is very lightly garrisoned. A condition precedent to this move is the Allied invasion of lightly held Norfolk Island, which is just a week or less away.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If I don't move on Sumatra, I think the Allies might go for a CenPac route followed by a move on New Guinea. 

The more I play this game, the more convinced I am that two 5-star admirals were smarter than this ex-Lt. staff corps weenie. [:)]

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

Allied carriers: The conditions that led me to keep my carriers available for possible action in the Arabian Sea have changed. The Allies will be fine in India without them. Should I elect against the Mangalore operation, then my carriers are no longer needed in this theater. SigInt just reported IJA 24th Division prepping for Midway, which I think is an important strategic target for Japan. There are also the looming threats against Fiji and possibly Baker or New Zealand. Therefore, I am strongly considering moving my carriers from Capetown to Balboa to be ready for action in the Pacific.

Assuming that you have: 1)Upgraded all TBD Devastators to TBF Avengers, and 2)Incorporated two or more Atlanta class CLAA's into your escorts, I add my vote to this idea. I don't advise a make-or-break battle against the entire KB, since that would give the IJN a chance for auto-victory. But a battle against a lesser number of Japanese CV's might produce valuable results. (And be highly entertaining to we readers.)

Balboa is too far from any action. It is about three weeks to get them to Samoa from Balboa. I would suggest Tahiti if he is not reconning that area.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
The more I play this game, the more convinced I am that two 5-star admirals were smarter than this ex-Lt. staff corps weenie. [:)]

I have mostly ingored CenPac in my previous three AE/WitP PBEM games, but starting with my previous AE game, I began to see tha benefits of not facing mutliple interlocking IJA airbases plus the KB. The going was awfully slow and bloody in my game vs. Miller. So I am contemplating the benefits of hitting IJ bases that are relatively isolated and thus relatively free from zillions of land-based aircraft.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: crsutton
Balboa is too far from any action. It is about three weeks to get them to Samoa from Balboa. I would suggest Tahiti if he is not reconning that area.

Balboa is only a waypoint on the route from Capetown to the Pacific. From there, I'll likely send my carriers to Tahiti (which isn't being reconned) or perhaps Hilo (trying to evade the Glens that are more likely to nose around Pearl Harbor).