Update OCT 42: Riva (Allied) vs VonTirpitz (Jap) ADVICE SOUGHT!

[Riva Ridge]

Hello, I am into October '42 of my first full length PBM as an allied player with Vontirpitz. We have been playing since January and have maintained this while I was deployed in Afghanistan and hope to pick up the pace now that I am back. My opponent has been gracious and extremely competent. The game has no house rules though we have both played fairly with a gentleman's agreement to not do anything terribly ahistorical or gamey and discuss differences out as they occur. I hope to get some advice on what people should think my next moves should be.

Initial Invasions

The initial attacks were not nearly as devastating as I would have expected with me losing 4 Battleships at PH and the Prince of Wales and Repulse off Mersing on Day 1 but sinking one Japanese BB off Singapore on the second turn of the war. One of my initial strategies was to actually attempt to fight where I was able with a particular emphasis on the lower Dutch East Indies and the Malaysian Penisula (I know, this is not the wisest thing to do game-wise, but I wanted to actually try to fight historically instead of turtling). My opponent's inital 10-15 days were suprisingly slow but than he made multiple landings in strength and quickly secured the Borneo, Sumatra and other key points in the DEI. Furthermore, he rapidly advanced down Malay and in the Phillipines. I managed to buy about a month in the Malaysian Penisula and a couple of weeks in the Phillipines but he managed to wrap up both locations by February 1942. I believe that I have caused more casualties in the Phillipines than Malay and even managed to stage a small counterattack in the PI, but all locations eventually collapsed much quicker than I anticipated. The only other thing of note in the initial invasions was that the Wake Island invasion was actually repulsed and required a follow-up invasion by the Japanese.

Dutch East Indies and Northern Australian Coast

After the fall of Sumatra and Borneo, there was a brief respite and I was able to reinforce lower DEI with some Australian Forces as well as American B-17s. The hammer was dropped in March 1942 with a two pronged invasion into Java and Timor areas. Both locations fell with 30-40 days though fighting was rather fierce on Java. One of the first large Naval engagements of the war occured with the loss of the CVL Hermes in an attempt to intercept on the invasion TFs off Ambonia. Once the DEI was secured in mid-late March, repeated airstrikes and Submarines have made the north coast of Australia, particularly Darwin, completely untenable with multiple attempts to get supplies to Darwin interdicted.

Southeast Asia and India

While the Malaysian Penisula was being reduced, my opponent quickly struck into Burma and roll-uped lower Burma by March '42. If he was a month slower, I might have been able to get significant forces into Burma but it was not too be and after some desulatory land battles, I was able to withdraw the majority of the Commonwealth, British and Indian forces into upper Burma and by October 1942, they have been largely rebuilt and employed defensively in India. There have been no serious attempts since March 1942 to acquire more territory by the Japanese. The British have reoccupied the Burmese coast as far south as Akyab and there has been a pretty active air-war over Burma with frequent fighter and bomber engagements. The performance of the P40E, Mohawks and Buffalos have been disappointing but the addition of Hurricane IIB and IIC's have provided at least enough security to defeat Oscars and Zeroes in favorable conditions. There have been two large Naval Battles in the Indian Ocean with an late March attempt to bomb Columbo that was repulsed with light to moderate damage to the Japanese Carriers and a more successful late September massive raid involving about ten Japanese Carriers and ten BBs that sank about 24 Merchant Ships, 3 Destoryers, 3 light cruisers and 2 BBs (both were undergoing extensive repairs and were sunk in dry dock). The raid was undetected to the last moments and quickly overwelmed air defenses and represented the largest Japanese naval commitment to a single battle of the war. Luckily the British Fleet was located in Australia during the engagement and thus was not lost.

Australia and South Pacific

My opponent took Port Moseby in January 1942 but took his time advancing down the remainder of the Solomon Island's chain. The Japanese did take Horn Island and lower New Guneia and have restricted movement to the DEI and Darwin fairly early on. This led to probably my most costly mistake of the war. In an effort to reopen the route and due to the lack of serious air attacks from Port Moseby, I massed my Carriers in April 1942 and attempted an interdiction of Port Moseby and retaking of Horn Island. Port Moseby was hit pretty hard and Horn Island was retaken but in the process of the landing, the KB showed up and the only carrier battle of the war was fought. The KB got the jump on the attack and sank all 5 Carriers (4 American and 1 British, as well as 6 Cruisers). The counter-strikes by the American aircraft failed to do any significant damage to the KB with only one hit on the Akagi (note: weather may have played a factor but the American counterstrike was large enough with several bombers getting through but no hits scored; the other thing of note was the lack of effectiveness of the F4Fs against the Zeroes with F4Fs typically getting the worst of the engagments and getting swept out of the sky. This pattern was repeated several times in the South Pacific). Horn Island was quickly retaken by the Japanese. After that engagement, Japanese submarines and the KB conducted several sustained raids in the area down the Australian Coast and as far east as Suva with several convoys getting hit with corresponding loss of shipping and requiring a shift of shipping lanes.

Further east, The Japanese advanced destroyed an advanced base that was underconstruction at Ndeni and in May 1942, invaded Luganville in a drive towards Noumea. The Japanese advance stalled and no serious attempt was made to move further south and in July 1942, Luganville was retaken by Marines. There has been a fairly nasty air battle going with the Japanese Bombers and Zeroes making the New Hebrides untenable for a few months until the introduction of additional aviation support and fighters during the summer of 1942 (note: P39s and F4Fs were in the area in strength but were being shot out of the sky. In the late Summer, the introduction of P38s and interestingly enough P400s were able to consistently knock out the Japanese long-range attacks). In fall of 1942, B17Fs and B24s were introduced to based in Caldeonia and Luganville and are making day/night strikes on Lunga and Tulagi and have seriously impacted the Japanese airfields in the area.

Central Pacific

The Japanese quickly invaded Wake Island and the Gilberts but have not made any serious moves into the Central Pacific beyond a successful commerce raiding effort that forced shipping lanes to shift further east. I made an attempt to retake Wake Island at the same time as Luganville in July 1942 and while Luganville was successful, the Wake Island attack was unsuccessful with a much larger garrison present than was anticipated. I was able to withdraw some of the invading force and the my opponent made no serious attempt to contest my landings naval wise. More serious was my attempt to retake Tarawa in October 1942. This invasion was my largest Naval operation of the war with four amphibious TFs (5 Marine RGTs, 3 Raider BNs, supporting engineers), 5 CVs (2 American CVs, 1 British CV, 2 American CVEs), 12 BBs and support craft. The initial invasion was meant to take Tarawa, Naura and Ocean Island with a further strike north to suppress the large level 6 airfield at Mili. The initial bombardment hit Tarawa with the first landings the next day encountering a MUCH larger garrison than recon had indicated (almost 15,000 Japanese Troops, 53rd DIV plus supporting Infantry RGT and Naval Guard). There were extremely heavy casualties amongst the initial landings forces and the rest of the invasion for Naura and Ocean Island were diverted to Tarawa but there was an good element of surprise and about dozen Japanese merchant vessels were sunk and several unescorted bombers were shot down. The invasion fell apart though when the supression strike went into Mili with the bombardments having minimal effect on Mili and the Japanaese fighters completely sweeping the CAP of the CVs and the Japanese Bombers sinking the one of the CVs (note: This is the final straw with the performance of the F4F with a smaller Zero force utterly routing the Enterprise and Wasps CAP). The Japanese Force on Tarawa was severely disrupted and despite the heavy casualties, I felt that I would have made able to take Tarawa with the remainder of the force I had left to land but with the absolute decimation of the fighter coverage, I felt that I would not have been able to avoid heavy losses from the Fleet units and Transports massed around Tarawa and I abandoned the invasion.

Chinese Front

Interestingly enough, this has been the primary front of the war with my opponent making a concerted effort to knock China out of the war. The initial consolidation phase in China lasted three months with lines forming in central China. The first hammer to drop was my opponent placing units flushed with success from the DEI, Malaysia and the PI into China to conduct a massive offensive into China. The first grand Japanese offensive hit Central China between March-July 1942. The Japanese attacked from Nanning to Changsa to Ichang. Ichang was held successfully as well as Changsa but Nanning collapsed and the Japanese taking the Shaoyang/Singtang complex southwest of Changsa. The Japanese were pressing the line in multiple places along the river northwest of Changsa and it was an extremely close thing preventing a breakthrough into the interior. I conceded Changsa in order to not lose the majority of the Chinese Army (it was extremly vulnerable to being cut-off) and the lines have been stablized since the June 1942 with the majority of the Chinese Army facing large Japanese concentrations. The second Japanese Offensive attacked in the north from July-October 1942 with the Japanese outflanking Yenan and advancing along the northern roads to deep in the Chinese rear. Most of the Chinese Forces in the north had been reduced to counter the Japanese build-up in front of Sian and there was nothing available to stop this thrust. With Lankow threatened and the ominious buildup of more Japanese forces in front of Sian from other theaters, I withdrew the large concentration from Yenan and concentrated forces at Sian. The Japanese offensive at Sian was launced in early September and sharp casualties (over 50K) were made against the Japanese at Sian but the Chinese were eventually defeated. 160,000 Chinese are in retreat southwest towards the interior with the Japanese force pressing hard to create a pocket. The Chinese are now got in the pocket and there is a chance that they may be compelled to surrender unless I can free them.

Sub-War

A special section is dedicated to the ASW campaign. My opponent has ran probably the most successful submarine campaign that I have ever seen for the Japanese. His biggest success was the sinking of the CV Saratoga off Pearl Harbor in December 1941 despite heavy escort. I have lost 118 ships to Japanese Subs in the war. He has aggressively used them off Pearl Harbor, Syndey, Noumea and Columbo with particular success off Columbo and Sydney. I have managed to make the waters safe off the West Coast, Noumea and Pearl Harbor with aggressive ASW but there have been some extremely frustrating spells. On the flip side, I have been very aggressive with my submarines but the dud torpedo problem have meant that even though I have been getting my submarines into position (including two shots at Japanese Carriers), I have not been getting good effect with only 32 Japanese ships sunk.

Statistics

VP Score 33184 v 10940
Army Losses 11293 Allied, 1012 Japanese
Aircraft Losses 4072 Allied, 4040 Japanese

Naval Losses 628 Allied, 116 Japanese

Allied Losses: 7 CVs (5 US, 2 UK), 8 BB (5 US, 3 UK), 23 CA/CL (10 US, 7 UK, 5 Dutch), 45 DD (26 US, 12 UK, 7 Others), 38 SS (23 US, 2 UK, 13 Dutch), 507 Others (Comment: I have lost 118s ships to Subs but most of this 507 total were lost in the first three months where my opponent made a concerted effort to bag ships retreating from major ports - 256 Ships were lost in December. Ship losses have tapered off dramatically with just 41 of the losses happening in the past 3 months (32 of those were from the Columbo Raid)

Japanese Losses: 1 BB, 1 CA/CL, 14 DD, 28 SS, 72 Others

Thoughts: Clearly I am getting trouced pretty good. On the Naval Front, I have a fairly strong fleet but lack any sort of serious carrier coverage (1 US CV, 1 British CV, 3 US CVEs) to either contest the seas where the KB is present (I figure he has upwards 12-14 Carriers at this point) or where there is serious air opposition which seriously reduces my options to points within range of my land based air coverage. I am clearly worried about his ability to send the KB on raids or further invasions. In particualr, the massive raid on Columbo has me spooked about further reoccurences or further instances of commerce raiding like I saw earlier in the Spring. Further abroad, I am cautiously optimistic about the South Pacific, Australia and Indian Front in that I have strong forces present and can seriously contest his advances in those areas. My opponent could make an attempt in any of those three areas, but I think I could seriously bleed him and given that he has avoided any really large mistakes to date, I don't think he would make that attempt. The biggest area I am worried about is China. I am pretty much played out there. I have him checked on the Central and Southern Fronts but he has clearly won in the north and he is a position to not just win decisively, but annihlate my retreating forces. Additionally, he has taken my oil sources that feed Chinese Industry (a fact that I am sure is not lost on him). I am doing what I can to supply him the Chinese by air but the fact that my opponent has committed the majority of the IJA to taking China, I am not sure that I can stop him particularly if he pockets my forces there. Suffice it to say, I don't think he will be able to take China without massive casualties akin to what happened in China and Changsa earlier, but it is going to be bloody.

I see positive hope in this game so far. On the Naval Front, I just need to get lucky once against his Carriers and I have 32 CVs/CVEs coming on line in the next 14 months (5 more than the Japanese total CV/CVE fleet for the entire war) with 60 more in 1944 and 47 more in '45/46. I cannot hope to match him till fall of '43 but I can probably raid the hell out of him in the mean-time and at some point in early '43, achieve local superiority if I am sure that I am not going to face the KB. I have large forces in SE Asia, Pearl Harbor, Noumea waiting to be used and on the air-war front, the last three months have been turning against the Japanese with P38s, P400s, Hurricanes shooting down Japanese Zeroes and B17Fs/B24s hitting him hard on the airfields that are within reach. Finally, I strongly suspect that the effort in China is bleeding him ground wise as well as causing his industry to strain (I know in my Japanese games, I was feeling the pinch at this point). I have yet to see any of the more advanced Japanese plane types and I strongly suspect that supplying his ground forces is coming at the expense of his planes.

Anyrate, I am looking for advice on how to proceed. My opponent is likely reading this and I really haven't betrayed anything he does not know or strongly suspect. So feel free to mock by iminent loss of China and 600+ ship loss total as well as the loss of 5 Fleet Carriers but looking for some opinions!

[johnjohn]

Heyas Riva Ridge. My read on your situation is as follows: India is secure. China is in serious trouble (and you will be if China goes down soon.) All that available material in China will soon appear elsewhere if China falls. The Pacific Ocean Area is quiet. The South Pacific, other than Port Morseby, is also well in hand. What I conclude is rashness on your part has led to the loss of important fleet elements, elements that you need to hold on with.

One observation, use history to gauge your strategy. There is a reason Nimitz did not risk his total force but once--Midway. He (and you) cannot afford to lose it. In one sense you are fortunate, the enemy is not on you like ants escaping a fire. Use that to your advantage. And try to do what the Americans did. Hold onto territory that you feel you absolutely must hold. Otherwise withdraw. The more the Japanese balloon expands, the weaker it gets at the edges, and the harder it is to supply all the garrisons. Your forces will build up faster than your opponents, and your aircraft will steadily improve. In the meantime train everything that is not in combat. Part of the reason your planes are struggling is the difference in experience levels of the pilots. Yours will get better with time. Theirs get worse. So objective one--time is on your side. You do not need to commit to a counter-offensive this early. The only reason the marines were on the canal in '42 was the fear of a Jap airbase undermining the weak allied presence in the area. The real counter-offensive started late in 43 when the carrier pilots were trained up and sufficient new material in the form of CV, CVL, CVE, BB, CA, CL, and CLAA, not to mention the newer tin cans became available.

As for delaying strategies. About all you can do is heavily garrison the islands that you must keep (according to your plan), continue to rush planes and men to Australia, and build up the Navy in the CenPacArea. The KB is difficult, but it cannot be everywhere at once. Prick at the balloon on the edges and run behind your land bases so that you have additional support (as well as targets for the KB to attack), and do your best to be a nusiance. By the end of 43 your KB will be larger and stronger than the enemy's. Then you can consider a head to head fight (ie, Mariana's Turkey Shoot in summer of 44).

As for strategies at this point. Leave Port Morseby to the SWPAC forces to take back. Provide them with a large CVE force to support amphib ops, but otherwise it is Mac's problem. In the South Pac--just hold on. Unless you need the Solomons (and you don't), plan to hit the Gilberts and Marshalls. Your assault on Tarawa was correct, but you tried it a year too soon. As you discovered, your side is not quite ready yet. What you should discover is that the islands in the CenPac are too distant for one group to support another, so they are easy pickings once you are built up. The main question is whether to assault Truk before the Marianas. In reality, you don't need Wake, just starve them. Take Kwaj-Roi, Enewitok, that 6 airbase (Mili) and skip the rest. Like the Japs in the PI, you can mop up the outposts later. (It also doesnt hurt to have a couple of targets for your pilots to "train" on in combat.) You will need Kwaj-Roi as a major staging base for the next move westward. Nimitz decided to go to the Marianas and just hit Truk in hit and run raids, reducing its effectiveness. Truk, however, can be a valuable base for you if you want to hit the Solomons from the North and the East (Luganville). If not, Truk can be bypassed too. By now the Jap garrisons and forces in the south are in serious danger of losing their supply line. I dont remember who said it, but "If you cut off the head of an Octopus, the arms kind of go limp," is applicable here. Once the Marianas, Ulithi, and Yap fall to your advance, the enemy is in real trouble. That will make the second half of 44 much easier for SWPAC. Obviously, the KB will be used to oppose this movement. Since your CVs are more numerous and have better planes (and good pilots), accept a fight with them. Otherwise, continue to put pressure on them by advancing. And take just what you need. Saipan, Tinian, Guam, Ulithi, and Yap you will need. Eventually, you will need Iwo Jima and Okinawa. By then your carrier and sub forces will be overwhelming and the enemy will be hard pressed to continue the fight.

If China goes, be prepared for a real effort to knock India out of the war. It will take them time, there is alot of jungle to manage, but they will eventually come in numbers that you cannot withstand. I like the UK fleet, but they never are a match for an equal number (or more) of the Japanese. Be careful. A well managed sea campaign can force the thrust into India through the jungle. That will buy you alot of time. And dont fight a last ditch battle to hold Imphal et al. Just keep withdrawing into the interior. There is alot of India and you could pull off a pocket should they advance too far. Remember, they will have real supply issues going through the Jungle. And you want them to concentrate in India. That means 20 or so divisions not going to garrison the island perimeter which would make your advance significantly more difficult.

After all this, Riva, my advice is hold what you can, build up your forces over the next year and resist any temptation to take the initative. You have lost too much force already and all you will do is lose more. Remember the age old advice, a three to one superiority is what you want. Less than that risks defeat. So build up and hold. And train up everything you have. Then you will be the "hot knife through butter!"

Good luck,

Johnjohn

PS. Don't be fooled by the number of squadrons and planes you have. The key to this war is carriers, carriers, carriers. The player that manages his carriers best, will win. It is that simple. Lose them repeatedly as the allies (remember Lexington, Yorktown, Hornet and Wasp were lost in the first 10 months of the war. Hermes was lost early too.) You can survive your loses since they are close to what really happened. The allies still won. But you need to build up your carrier force while avoiding a showdown with the KB for the next year. By then the odds will be in your favor.

[Alfred]

Screen shots showing territorial position would be good. In the interim, a few preliminary comments.

1. You are entering the Arctic winter period. With your extremely limited carrier assets, you could consider using them (plus some SAG) to raid enemy LOC in triangle Kuriles/Sakhalin Island/Hokkaido. The winter conditions will limit the chances of enemy airstrikes plus if he moves the KB up there, it can't be employed more profitably elsewhere.

2. As you hold New Caledonia and the New Hebrides, you can island hop all the way up the Solomons without the need for Allied CV support (particularly if the KB has been diverted up north to the Kuriles). Set the gazillion Seabee units you have to building up every dot base in the area both to support the island hopping advance and to gain the VPs. This is a better axis of advance in the short term than the Mandate Territories which do require CV support.

3. The northern China situation is not a complete disaster. Remember (a) destroyed Chinese LCUs do return 30 days later at Chungking at 1/3 strength (they return without dipping into your pools) and (b) a VP is gained only for every 12 Chinese or 6 Japanese devices destroyed. Thus the enemy needs to achieve 2:1 KIA just to gain the same VPs. When you factor in Japan needs a 4:1 VP ratio for auto victory in 1943, this means that only if eliminating the pocket in the north gives Japan a better than 8:1 KIA, is the Japanese auto victory cause advanced by totally eliminating the pocket.

4. The more of China is captured, the greater the garrison requirements are. This will limit how many units Japan can subsequently redeploy for operations elsewhere.

There are a few other options available but I would prefer to see those screenshots first.[;)] At any rate a 3.3:1 VP score in favour of Japan at this point in time is not too bad a situation for the Allies.

Alfred

[Riva Ridge]

All,

Thanks for the advice and I will consider what is said. Now that I am back, I plan to restart the AAR on this particular game as well.

The primary consideration is that while I feel that I am going to focus largely on Force Concentration and preservation for the next several months while getting enough Carriers online to challenge, I am a big believer that an opponent that is reacting to you is not surprising you. I am going to be looking for offensive options that risk little but allow for me to continue to bleed him. I'll let you know how it all turns out!

Riva

[Cap Mandrake]

I agree with Alfred's advice. Use the assets you have, which are a growing numerical superiority in combat divisions and luxurious engineer support. Your sub torps will start working better soon and you have newer planes coming on line and fantatstic heavy bombers.

You can't be invading Jap-occupied atolls with those kind of carrier losses. Instead, island hop using small forces (LCT's and the like) to seize unoccupied dot hexes under the cover of land based air from a nearby airfield and build them up. When use seize a base, put 12 PT boats there and a CD unit to dissuade bombardment attacks . Use your paratroops to seize dot hexes too. Use barges and low value AK's to move supply to your new bases. When the airfield is ready move up the planes...lather..rinse....repeat. The best place to do this kind of thing is on the North New Guinea coast and in the Dutch (formerly) East Indies.

Use the heavies to probe for weak spots and kill Jap planes on the ground. Use fighter sweeps to achieve local air superiority and kill Jap fighters. Use your dedicated P-38 recce aircraft so you don't run into another Jap division on an atoll.

Manage your pilot training so you are not sending up 50 experience pilots against the best Japs.

Use your subs to try to interdict Jap tankers coming from the DEI or at choke points.