1942 war start what if ideas

[jwilkerson]

ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1

Even "fantasy" needs to have a degree of "plausibility".

Like "Star Trek" is plausible??? [:D] ... warp 7 anyone ??? [:D][:D][:D]

As to plausible alternative history I think Japan WAS moving as a result of what happened in June 1940 ... but their time table was what is was ... could they have moved faster? Well they did not, but they can in an alternate history scenario!!! The editor awaits your pleasure! [:)]

[mike scholl 1]

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

Like "Star Trek" is plausible??? [:D] ... warp 7 anyone ??? [:D][:D][:D]

As to plausible alternative history I think Japan WAS moving as a result of what happened in June 1940 ... but their time table was what is was ... could they have moved faster? Well they did not, but they can in an alternate history scenario!!! The editor awaits your pleasure! [:)]

As a matter of fact Joe, yes. "Star Trek" begins and ends as a fantasy of the far future..., and as no one can know what the situation will be at the start of the 23rd Century, within it's boundries, it's plausible.

Japan's situation at the beginning of Summer in 1940 when the Fall of Western Europe suddenly opened up new possibilities IS known and available in history. NOBODY (not even Hitler) expected France to collapse that quickly; so it wasn't an event that could be planned for, only reacted to. To have the Japanese sitting around prepared to take advantage of it immediately isn't "alternate history", it's "alternate reality".

It makes a much more plausible scenario with the Fall of France as the beginning of preparations for a war, and November/December as the kick off date. Even then the Japs are still going to be facing the great unknown of how the Soviets might react.

[LoBaron]

ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1

As a matter of fact Joe, yes. "Star Trek" begins and ends as a fantasy of the far future..., and as no one can know what the situation will be at the start of the 23rd Century, within it's boundries, it's plausible.

Japan's situation at the beginning of Summer in 1940 when the Fall of Western Europe suddenly opened up new possibilities IS known and available in history. NOBODY (not even Hitler) expected France to collapse that quickly; so it wasn't an event that could be planned for, only reacted to. To have the Japanese sitting around prepared to take advantage of it immediately isn't "alternate history", it's "alternate reality".

It makes a much more plausible scenario with the Fall of France as the beginning of preparations for a war, and November/December as the kick off date. Even then the Japs are still going to be facing the great unknown of how the Soviets might react.

Ok Mike your post is really tearing me apart. [;)]

As a matter of fact, Star Trek is as far down on the plausability scale as at all possible. While the predictability of 23rd century technology is certainly
lacking, the predictability of the physical properties of our universe is not. The Star Track technology requires very specific properties of space which we
already now can dismiss as non-existent. There is a lot of plausable SF literature available, Captain Kirk is no character in one of them.

I agree with the relevant part of your post though. Japans position radically changed at least 2 times before the attack on PH, first the embargo,
and then the collapse of the western front in Europe. While predicting these events were not completely impossible, planning a war based on
these two assumptions in advance would have been like betting on the horse least likely to win.

Starting a war against the US like they did was a very risky move, but about the swiftest reaction to a changing balance of force they could have mustered.

[Sardaukar]

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1

Even "fantasy" needs to have a degree of "plausibility".

Like "Star Trek" is plausible??? [:D] ... warp 7 anyone ??? [:D][:D][:D]

As to plausible alternative history I think Japan WAS moving as a result of what happened in June 1940 ... but their time table was what is was ... could they have moved faster? Well they did not, but they can in an alternate history scenario!!! The editor awaits your pleasure! [:)]

If I ever have time, I'll try to make Dec 1940 scenario, because the idea intrigues me and I think Japanese truly got the ball moving in summer 1941 when Germany attacked USSR. I think it might have been possible for them to attack in Dec 1940, of course in different style. There would be no need for Pearl Harbor either, since I think Pacific Fleet was still in San Diego then and not in PH.

Of course their carriers would fly Claudes etc...but US carriers would fly Brewsters and "Wind-indicators" etc... Research for this would be a total beast though and I am not sure how much material there would be for 1940 on Japanese side. That's the problem of making historical 1942 scenario too. At least with latter one could get the Japanese official war history and get it translated...and then research it...[X(][:D]

[guctony]

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

Making an alternate history scenario in the editor does not require "justification". One persons perfectly "plausible" scenario might be another person's "fantasy" - but we should not require everyone to agree. When I made my "Cautionaries" scenario, I did what I thought made sense. I did write down my assumptions - but I did not require or expect agreement, I created the scenario for the enjoyment of those who chose to play it!

You are right sir.

But I have to confess that my knowledge to that specisific area is limited. This way I now have broad sense of what can be a more historical mod.

I now consider a 1940 june attack much more likely. Probably omiting Pearl suprise attack. Probably a limited offensive aiming DEI bypassing Philipines directing singapure and hong kong, Once the areas secured japan will look for decisive battle with USA.

Another feasible concept is 1942 june attack. Assuming Japans accept China retreat and free alot of land unit. Which can be used to attack Pearl direcly.

1942 mod will be a direct assult to pearl from Marshall islands.

[Sardaukar]

ORIGINAL: guctony

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

Making an alternate history scenario in the editor does not require "justification". One persons perfectly "plausible" scenario might be another person's "fantasy" - but we should not require everyone to agree. When I made my "Cautionaries" scenario, I did what I thought made sense. I did write down my assumptions - but I did not require or expect agreement, I created the scenario for the enjoyment of those who chose to play it!

You are right sir.

But I have to confess that my knowledge to that specisific area is limited. This way I now have broad sense of what can be a more historical mod.

I now consider a 1940 june attack much more likely. Probably omiting Pearl suprise attack. Probably a limited offensive aiming DEI bypassing Philipines directing singapure and hong kong, Once the areas secured japan will look for decisive battle with USA.

Another feasible concept is 1942 june attack. Assuming Japans accept China retreat and free alot of land unit. Which can be used to attack Pearl direcly.

1942 mod will be a direct assult to pearl from Marshall islands.

IJA vetoed any idea of Hawaiian invasion, because Japan lacked shipping to even sustain garrison and population there, much less to do amphibious invasion.

So, I suggest following alternative history:

In summer 1942, Germany has forced UK & USSR to capitulate, neither are fully occupied but are out of the war for now. USA is at war with Germany & Italy and is actively engaged against German, Italian and Vichy France forces in North Africa (Operation Torch enhanced) and waging naval war against Germany. Two Ocean Naval Act is in full swing, same with US Army and AF buildup. US CVs are mostly committed supporting operations in North Africa and making life difficult to Germany from bases like Iceland & Azores.

With ceasefire, UK was forced to cede Hongkong, Burma, Malaya & Singapore to Japan, including all merchant vessels over 1500grt it had in it's Asian and Indian Ocean ports. This is because of secret pact between Japan & Germany for Japan to enter the war and force USA to two-front war. Australia & New Zealand are still at war with Germany, Canada too. Vichy France is de facto ally of Japan. DEI is still neutral by guarantee of USA. War in China still grinds as stalemate, but now Japan will be able to bring in majority of troops garrisoned in Manchuria.

How does this sound? Would give lot of extra shipping for Japan. They also could capture lot more from DEI (historically they did sink lot of shipping they could have just captured).

This would lead to scenario where India is out of if and Japanese west flank is totally secure. Japan would need to invade & secure DEI, force Australia & NZ out of war and tackle with USA. US would have ANZAC Pact in effect and has stationed sizable ground, air and naval forces in Australia, NZ and several islands, including Free French New Caledonia.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

I think mike scholl 1 meant also Star Treck has to follow an internal logic and so should every "fantasy scenario" wich is very true. Also realism is gradual, one does not simply have it or not.

[Sardaukar]

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

I think mike scholl 1 meant also Star Treck has to follow an internal logic and so should every "fantasy scenario" wich is very true. Also realism is gradual, one does not simply have it or not.

I am more into "what is possible". It does not have to be "plausible". [:D] Star Trek is not my cup of tea, though. Liked Star Wars more for good villain. [8D]

[guctony]

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

ORIGINAL: guctony

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

Making an alternate history scenario in the editor does not require "justification". One persons perfectly "plausible" scenario might be another person's "fantasy" - but we should not require everyone to agree. When I made my "Cautionaries" scenario, I did what I thought made sense. I did write down my assumptions - but I did not require or expect agreement, I created the scenario for the enjoyment of those who chose to play it!

You are right sir.

But I have to confess that my knowledge to that specisific area is limited. This way I now have broad sense of what can be a more historical mod.

I now consider a 1940 june attack much more likely. Probably omiting Pearl suprise attack. Probably a limited offensive aiming DEI bypassing Philipines directing singapure and hong kong, Once the areas secured japan will look for decisive battle with USA.

Another feasible concept is 1942 june attack. Assuming Japans accept China retreat and free alot of land unit. Which can be used to attack Pearl direcly.

1942 mod will be a direct assult to pearl from Marshall islands.

IJA vetoed any idea of Hawaiian invasion, because Japan lacked shipping to even sustain garrison and population there, much less to do amphibious invasion.

So, I suggest following alternative history:

In summer 1942, Germany has forced UK & USSR to capitulate, neither are fully occupied but are out of the war for now. USA is at war with Germany & Italy and is actively engaged against German, Italian and Vichy France forces in North Africa (Operation Torch enhanced) and waging naval war against Germany. Two Ocean Naval Act is in full swing, same with US Army and AF buildup. US CVs are mostly committed supporting operations in North Africa and making life difficult to Germany from bases like Iceland & Azores.

With ceasefire, UK was forced to cede Hongkong, Burma, Malaya & Singapore to Japan, including all merchant vessels over 1500grt it had in it's Asian and Indian Ocean ports. This is because of secret pact between Japan & Germany for Japan to enter the war and force USA to two-front war. Australia & New Zealand are still at war with Germany, Canada too. Vichy France is de facto ally of Japan. DEI is still neutral by guarantee of USA. War in China still grinds as stalemate, but now Japan will be able to bring in majority of troops garrisoned in Manchuria.

How does this sound? Would give lot of extra shipping for Japan. They also could capture lot more from DEI (historically they did sink lot of shipping they could have just captured).

This would lead to scenario where India is out of if and Japanese west flank is totally secure. Japan would need to invade & secure DEI, force Australia & NZ out of war and tackle with USA. US would have ANZAC Pact in effect and has stationed sizable ground, air and naval forces in Australia, NZ and several islands, including Free French New Caledonia.

I have to agree with you about Pearl. In my RA PBEM game I Invade Havai Island , and many island on route to US australia island. Result is mixed. A huge buffer to protect but an extra heavy Fuel bill come with the prize tag.

But still only limited assult to pearl Islands and bypassing Pearl could mean alot to japan. To shut of Pearl one not need to assult pearl directly. A long term siege of Island is very beneficient. I was able destroy all BB damaged by first day attack

[fcharton]

In June 1940, war was already declared for 9 months. Japan could have used this time to make preparations for an early invasion of French, Dutch and British possessions in South East Asia, without anticipating the collapse of the western front in 1940. I don't think Japan lacked the means, nor that they feared US implication (which was still a long long shot, in 1940).

The important factor, in my opinion, is the German-Soviet Pact. Until June 1941, USSR is out of the war, Japan's status in the Axis is unclear (it is close to Berlin in its anticommunist stance, but then Berlin has an alliance with Stalin, and needs him at the moment, which puts Soviet Union in a position of strength). Any strong japanese commitment in south east asia at that time would run the risk of russian reaction (in Manchuria or northern China). I believe fear of the Soviet, not of the US, is what prevented Japan from acting.

Francois

[Keifer]

2 Potential Alternative Scenario Ideas:

1.) Japan goes to war in Dec 41 against Britain and NEI only. Goes to war against US after conquering SRA. Is this even possible with the game engine?

2.) The US Army and Navy convince Roosevelt to delay oil embargo for 6 months allowing more US strength in the Pacific. War starts on June 7, 1942.

[CaptBeefheart]

There are a lot of good ideas on this thread. One thing that interests me is the Japanese taking advantage of the fall of France. The Japanese would not have been fully prepared as people have noted, and it's certainly not in their nature to do something without a lot of advance discussion, but why not hit the DEI and UK possessions in July 1940 from a more-or-less standing start when the UK and Netherlands had very little there? It would be a race against time. Also, I'd assume the U.S. would declare war after the election, say November or December 1940. You'd also have to assume a quiet Russia.

In such a scenario, U.S. Army and Marine ground and air reinforcements could be marginally moved up from stock dates, but not USN (other than what historically came from the Atlantic). Also, presumably Oz and NZ troops would remain in theater, but as an offset there's be fewer UK forces sent East.

Cheers,
CC

[guctony]

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

There are a lot of good ideas on this thread. One thing that interests me is the Japanese taking advantage of the fall of France. The Japanese would not have been fully prepared as people have noted, and it's certainly not in their nature to do something without a lot of advance discussion, but why not hit the DEI and UK possessions in July 1940 from a more-or-less standing start when the UK and Netherlands had very little there? It would be a race against time. Also, I'd assume the U.S. would declare war after the election, say November or December 1940. You'd also have to assume a quiet Russia.

In such a scenario, U.S. Army and Marine ground and air reinforcements could be marginally moved up from stock dates, but not USN (other than what historically came from the Atlantic). Also, presumably Oz and NZ troops would remain in theater, but as an offset there's be fewer UK forces sent East.

Cheers,
CC

I think the same. This outline makes very few historical changes. The stock scenario can be used. And Because Japan is not so ready it will be still a balanced game.