Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, the game is on life support. Last week, Brad said he would be sporadic over the holiday weekend. Sporadic turned out to be "zero turns." Then, yesterday a.m., he sent a turn with a note that he would be available for more during the day. Available for more meant "zero turns." He didn't send one last night either. But he was hanging around the WitE forums and is playing that game according to his posts there. So I wrote him this morning. We'll see.

I don't mind sporadic, but I do mind non-communication or inaccurate communication.

[Canoerebel]

10/4/42

When a jury is deadlocked, the judge will read what's called a "dynamite charge" to try to get them moving again. That was the nature of my message to Brad this morning. He replied courteously, sent a turn, promised to get back on track, and then sent another email saying that he would flip another turn if I got one to him with 1.5 hours. I sent him a turn 40 minutes later and....nothing. Zillch. Not even an email saying "Hey, I just can't get to it, sorry." [X(]

India: The two Japanese stacks are still in their respective hexes south and east of Jalagon. I'm beginning to wonder if Brad might be trying to move around Jalagon, which would be an offensive move at a time I'm thinking he's going on the defensive. Unless he has serious reinforcements on the way, such a move would be disastrous for Japan, so I doubt he'll do that. Meanwhile, the Chindit units arrived at Surat and a base east of Jalagon, giving the Allies three paratroop units at front line bases. I will use them if an opportunity arises to threaten a Japanese army's LOC or if I can spook Brad by doing so.

Pacific: Quiet along the frontline posts. The Norfolk Island invasion fleet is still 13 hexes distant and moving slower than I had expected. No signs that Brad has caught wind of it or otherwise expects a move at this moment.

[nicwb]

When a jury is deadlocked, the judge will read what's called a "dynamite charge" to try to get them moving again.

[:D] I love it ! - my country is deadly dull by comparison - we just call it a "Black direction" -

Sounds as though Brad is getting distracted by something else (RL perhaps?)

[Galahad78]

Perhaps he is just playing mind games on you [:D]

[Grfin Zeppelin]

He is very likely burned out and needs a break.

[Canoerebel]

10/5/42

India: The Japanese stacks remained in place and underwent more attacks by Allied LBA. Three more squadrons just arrived at Karachi - two B-25c and one B-24. They will join the bombing parade tomorrow.

Norfolk Island: The invasion TFs are eight hexes south of the island, meaning D-Day is probably two or three days away. No sign of Japanese opposition yet.

Marcus and Wake: In case Allied activity at Norfolk, to be followed by a feint on Noumea in a few weeks, draws the KB, I'm loading my Wake and Marcus troops aboard transports at Pearl Harbor. If nothing happens over the next seven days, they will probably unload. The makeup of the forces: (A) Marcus Island: 285 AV consisting of 132 RCT, 159 RCT, 102 Combat Engineers, 627 Tank Destroyers, 2 Field Arty; (B) Wake Island: 750 AV consisting of 2 Marines, 23 Marines, 145 RCT; 129 RCT; 34 Combat Engineers, 1 Amphibious HQ, 637 Tank Destroyers, 754 Tanks, 4 Field Arty.

The Pacific: Still no sign of Japanese movement or the KB.

[Canoerebel]

10/6/42

India: The two Japanese armies are retreating - both are now two hexes from Jalagon - one to the south (towards Poona) and one towards the east (Benares). Allied air continue to work these two stacks over. Tomorrow, 1st Marine 'Chutes will drop on a dot hex near Benares while one of the Chindits will hit a dot hex southeast of Poona. These moves are meant to "stampede" the enemy - to create the appearance of impending isolation. Most of the Allies army at Jalagon will give chase to the stack moving towards Poona, because this will threaten the Japanese army besieging Bombay. Additional forces will move from Surat down the coastal road to Bombay. To the east, two smaller Allied armies will threaten the Benares sector.

Norfolk Island: The invasion force is just four hexes away. The combat escorts will bombard tonight. Landings should commence tomorrow. No sign of anything more than the island garrison - two units totaling a token 1,000 men. B-17s from Lord Howe Island will also hit the island. Picket ships to the north haven't been molested.

Wake/Marcus: All transports are fully loaded and depart Pearl tonight. They will make generally for Midway, from where they can move expeditiously if the KB reacts to the threat to Norfolk and the perceived threat to Noumea. If the KB isn't sighted far away, however, I'll recall these transports.

NoPac: Four deception TFs have rendezvoued north of Adak and will move towards Paramushiro.

[paullus99]

His lack of offensive activity is very confusing - at this point, he's conceded the initiative to you (though he may be waiting for you to commit to an operation & he'll hit you back hard). How is your sea recon around Karachi? Could he slip in behind you & attempt to storm the city from the sea or perhaps land a force in behind you? Of course, it doesn't look like he has anything like the free troops to pull something like that....

Any nibbles on the radio intercepts?

[Canoerebel]

I've been worried about strikes along the coast or against my flanks, though I think the odds are pretty long now. I have 200 AV at Karachi, which would be boosted by the Waristan Division were Brad to try an amphibious assault there. I don't think he has much in the way of reserve divisions to launch such an attack. And I doubt he would take the risk with his ships. As for my flanks, now that Brad's armies are at least two hexes from Jalagon, it would take him four or five or six days to get back there - plenty of time for me to reconfirgure my defenses should a need arise. The rest of my flank is protected by advance units that would give me many days or weeks notice of a big move in that direction.

I'm still wary of a surprise move by Brad, but all indications are that the Japanese are in retreat. The chances of him successfully going back on the offensive are pretty small given the size of the Allied army. He's going to have his hands full extracting his forward units - including 1st Division north of Bombay - with Allied troops and bombers nipping at his heels. So I think he's giving all his attention to that now.

I think Brad will be evacuating Bombay in the not-too-distant future.

[JohnDillworth]

a thought. Perhaps Brad's waning interest in the game might cause him to do something really outrageous in attempt for a quick auto-victory. Something really daring. Perhaps a KB "Thunder Run" around the Hawaiian Islands or such? I don't think there is any way to prepare for such a thing, but the possibility exists.

[Canoerebel]

That's a noxious thought, John! But it's certainly possible. I need to reconsider staging my Wake/Marcus TFs too far forward.

Below is a map of the current sitaution in India. Solid blue lines show Allied axis of advance. Dashed blue line show paratroop assaults to take place tomorrow. All orange lines show IJA paths of retreat. IJA 1st Division is several hexes north of Bombay on the coast road. Brad has to get that unit back to Bombay before he can withdraw. This is where the Allies have the best chance of catching and beating up some Japanese - combining the Allies army at Bombay (2600 AV) with the army advancing from Jalagon (about 2000 AV).

[JeffroK]

CR,

Can you get anything into Raipur, even a fragment of a regular infantry unit might scare QBall into thinking its an airlifted counterattack.

PS.  Do you intend that the Chindits and Marine Paras hold their conquests, if not, take the base and immediately plot to move down the IJA LOC, gives them a bit more use than sacraficial pawns.

[Canoerebel]

Jeff, good idea re: Raipur. I don't see why I can't airlift some infantry into that base.

As for the paratroops, I'm likely to move them down a road, or possibly even into an adjacent wooded hex, to prevent them from sitting there and getting destroyed. They are meant to induce the panic of uncertainty tomorrow and for a few days thereafter, but pretty soon Brad will figure out they don't pose any real threat.

[Cribtop]

Oh, my. The rout isn't on yet, but it could be soon...

[witpqs]

India is so flush with roads and railways this might not be possible, but if they block the best supply route such that it causes IJA units downstream to get supply on a less frequent schedule that might influence a combat or two.

The schedule (and I never found out which one happens on which days) is

Short Range = 4 days per week
Medium Range = 2 days per week (includes Short Range units)
Long Range = 1 day per week (includes Short Range and Medium Range units)

I'm attaching a cut & paste I did of a developer post on supply movement in case it's helpful.

[Canoerebel]

10/7/42

India: Brad has garrisons at the two dot hexes targeted by Allied paratroops. The 1st Marine 'Chutes were unable to take the dot hex near Naipur, but the Chindits did take the dot hex east of Poona, really roughing up an IJA armored unit in the process. That will probably do more to spook Brad than anything (assuming he's "spookable," which is debatable). Allied air continued to hit the ground troops in big numbers. Four armored units are hot on the heals of the IJA stack retreating towards Poona, but I'll halt them to allow some infantry to catch up. I'm hoping that Allied bombers will slow the IJA stack enough to allow my troops to catch up. Allied escorts probably sank two IJN subs near Karachi - a rare feat.

Norfolk Island: Everything looks good on D-Day. The bombardment TF did it's job; B-17s from Lord Howe Island flew on schedule and did their job; and about 50 AV came ashore to find a token Japanese garrison that might total 10 AV. The Allied troops will shock attack tomorrow (by then the Allied AV should be about 100). No signs of IJ opposition. I'll withdraw the combat ships tomorrow and most of the transports.

Pacific: No sign of Japanese activity. The mock Kuriles invaison force is continuing west and will be north of Attu tomorrow.

[paullus99]

Once again, I am very suprised that Q hasn't responded at this point - especially in light of happenings in India, and if he moves out of Bombay you can almost guarantee that he's going on full defense on the subcontinent (probably retreat back to a firm base to cover Calcutta/Burma under the cover of multiple airfields & try to bleed you under his fighter cover).

I've also considered that he may be emulating your own strategy with the carriers - since he still has the advantage in flight decks and experience, and waiting until you commit to a seaborne operation (the KB is now next to useless in the IO) in the Pacific.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Jeff, good idea re: Raipur. I don't see why I can't airlift some infantry into that base.

As for the paratroops, I'm likely to move them down a road, or possibly even into an adjacent wooded hex, to prevent them from sitting there and getting destroyed. They are meant to induce the panic of uncertainty tomorrow and for a few days thereafter, but pretty soon Brad will figure out they don't pose any real threat.

CR,

Love the idea of dropping the paras on the dot hexes. It will slow his egress from theatre to a crawl if he can't rail them out.

Along those lines, can you paradrop on that city hex between Bhopal and Raipur (to the gamemap 'East' of Nampur)? If it's lightly defended and can be taken with a paradrop, that'll unhinge his flank but good. You can then rail troops into Raipur and bypass this Nampur pocket-liquidating it at your leisure.

[JohnDillworth]

I've also considered that he may be emulating your own strategy with the carriers - since he still has the advantage in flight decks and experience, and waiting until you commit to a seaborne operation (the KB is now next to useless in the IO) in the Pacific.

If he is in retreat he has to ship those troops somewhere else. IF you can put any sort of threat in the Indian Ocean he almost has to put the KB there to escort his troops back. If you know where the KB will be for 2 weeks you can do a lot of damage in the Pacific. Maybe send a Brit carrier or a couple of CVE's on a raid into the India Ocean. It would almost be worth losing them to pin the KB down for a bit. Land based air might be a problem, but even getting sighted would have the desired effect.

[paullus99]

I hadn't thought of that - if he was planning on pulling a turtle & moving into a defensive posture, he's not going to want to tie down all of those troops - the whole purpose would be to release combat formations for use elsewhere. So, there would be significant shipping assets in play here, that could be vulnerable for a strike (or perhaps even an amphibious invasion on your part on Ceylon - to cut access from the sea).