War in the Pacific as Planned--Allied

[herwin]

December 28/29 1941

Japanese reopen road to Sinyang.

Clark Field falls.

Allied shock attack at Iba results in 1-2 outcome, but the Japanese take 7% casualties while the Allies take 3%. I can afford a few more attacks at those odds.

The Japanese reinforce Mauban and repulse a shock attack.

Allied shock attack at Sinyang gets 1-1 and reduces the Japanese fortifications a level. Allies take 3% casualties while the Japanese take 7%. I can afford a few more attacks at those odds.

Tarakan falls.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: herwin

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I think the anti-soft and anti-hard of the squads themselves is actually part of AS, they just don't count it as part of the AS number displayed in the game. Guys going into the trench line with Tommy Guns have an advantage over guys going into the trench line with solely bolt-actions.

I checked it, and AS is the effective squad count. Hard and soft firepower cause casualties, but don't play a role in the AS comparison.

That's what I've been trying to get across, the point being that pure AS comparison is inadequate. So, what goes on internally in the combat code of the game engine to account for that - it seems that what you see as the final AS comparison might be taking into account the firepower differences. Can only speculate, of course, but it is clear that the engine accounts for the squad firepower differences.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: herwin

I guess the game is meant to be played that way, but it seems really gamey to automatically shock attack when you have an AS mismatch and to be building death stars in China to make up for the vulnerability of small units to attacks by larger units. The optimal deployment there is a single humongous offensive stack and a lot of little 1-AS units to hold ground.

Appropriate concentration of force, yes. Beware that supply lines are critical. Thankfully, I have not run into anybody who takes the gamey step of using tiny units to hold ground. Of course it wouldn't take a very large unit to blast truck convoys of supplies (to cut supply lines), and small units would be quite vulnerable to attack clearing them out. So, I think the context matters. The way you describe the potential use of 1-AS units would appear to be gamey in the context you imply.

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: herwin

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I think the anti-soft and anti-hard of the squads themselves is actually part of AS, they just don't count it as part of the AS number displayed in the game. Guys going into the trench line with Tommy Guns have an advantage over guys going into the trench line with solely bolt-actions.

I checked it, and AS is the effective squad count. Hard and soft firepower cause casualties, but don't play a role in the AS comparison.

That's what I've been trying to get across, the point being that pure AS comparison is inadequate. So, what goes on internally in the combat code of the game engine to account for that - it seems that what you see as the final AS comparison might be taking into account the firepower differences. Can only speculate, of course, but it is clear that the engine accounts for the squad firepower differences.

Yes--the AS comparison determines whether the battlefield changes hands, but the AS values used are after your firepower has been used to shoot up the other side. Disabled squads don't count. My points are two: the winner should be the side with the lower percentage casualties, not the side with more AS at the end, and firepower should work differently from Gulf War experience--during WWII, target acquisition was much slower than target engagement, and target density came into the dynamics in addition to firepower. That forced WWII combat teams to be right-sized--to avoid presenting too large a target profile and as a result taking excessive casualties.

[herwin]

December 29/30 1941

SS I-1 attempts an attack on a well-defended replenishment convoy. No success.

Heavy naval bombardment of Manado. Not a lot to fire at. Shock attack there at 1-2.

Japanese shock attack at Mauban--8-1 AS odds, but the Japanese take more casualties than the Allies.

[herwin]

December 30/31 1941

Minor actions.

[herwin]

December 31 1941/January 1 1942

Mostly air actions. Some minor ground combat.

I keep this strait mined to discourage the pests:

TF 52 encounters mine field at Merak (48,97)
 
Japanese Ships
      SS I-155, Mine hits 1,  on fire,  heavy damage

Commentary on ground attacks:

Ground combat at Iba (78,75)
 
Allied Shock attack
 
Attacking force 3838 troops, 69 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 139
 
Defending force 1836 troops, 19 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 61
 
Allied adjusted assault: 44
 
Japanese adjusted defense: 52
 
Allied assault odds: 1 to 2
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), fatigue(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      158 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      93 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
         Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

If the casualty report is accurate, the Japanese are losing this series of engagements. This is a relatively balanced engagement with the Japanese squads expressing about double the effective firepower available to the Allied squads. The Allies will eventually overwhelm the Japanese if there are no Japanese reinforcements.

Ground combat at Manado (75,99)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 2427 troops, 12 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 67
 
Defending force 1250 troops, 16 guns, 3 vehicles, Assault Value = 32
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 24
 
Allied adjusted defense: 29
 
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 0)
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), fatigue(-)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      112 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      130 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Likewise, the Allies are losing here. The Allied squads have about double the effective firepower of the Japanese squads during the firepower duel, but the Japanese numerical advantage is being expressed in the outcomes. The final AS numbers are irrelevant.

Ground combat at Mauban (80,78)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 8789 troops, 91 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 235
 
Defending force 4881 troops, 123 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 107
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 229
 
Allied adjusted defense: 13
 
Japanese assault odds: 17 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), disruption(-), preparation(-)
 fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), fatigue(-), morale(-)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      289 casualties reported
         Squads: 1 destroyed, 11 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

The Allies are losing here, but note the firepower phase is exhibiting aimed fire dynamics, not area fire dynamics--there's no tail-off reflecting target density. That's a key observation--it means you need to manage your LCUs like historical warships not like historical ground force units. Mahan's analysis applies, not that of Clausewitz. Applying 'fleet in being' to LCUs is different but doable.

[herwin]

January 1/2 1942

Heavy airstrikes on Singapore.

Mines nail another IJN submarine at Merak!

TF 50 encounters mine field at Merak (48,97)

Japanese Ships
SS I-153, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Shock attack unsuccessful at Hankow

Ground combat at Hankow (85,50)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 22639 troops, 117 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 599

Defending force 40093 troops, 463 guns, 143 vehicles, Assault Value = 860

Allied adjusted assault: 153

Japanese adjusted defense: 5549

Allied assault odds: 1 to 36 (fort level 4)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), preparation(-)
experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
     334 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled
        Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 23 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled


Allied ground losses:
     4840 casualties reported
        Squads: 83 destroyed, 330 disabled
        Non Combat: 14 destroyed, 255 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled

Data point: 860 Assault Value (AV) reduces the attacking force by about 450 AV.

Ground combat at Mauban (80,78)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 8556 troops, 91 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 217

Defending force 4677 troops, 123 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 89

Japanese adjusted assault: 229

Allied adjusted defense: 9

Japanese assault odds: 25 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), disruption(-), preparation(-)
fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), fatigue(-)

Japanese ground losses:
     118 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Allied ground losses:
     306 casualties reported
        Squads: 1 destroyed, 13 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Another data point: 217 assaulting AV reduces the defending AV by 80.

[witpqs]

Harry,

I'll offer the observation that we have no knowledge of target density. The hex is 46 statute miles across - 1,662 sq miles if I punched in pi*r**2 correctly - so the density is anything from black hole to vacuum. Defender could be compressed into a smaller area as the fight goes on. They could fall back with lots of space behind them and remain at same density. They could spread out more. They could be falling back from one (abstracted) small objective to another.

The real test of this ground combat model has to be at a greater scale. How do things look by the time the battle is over? Not the day, the whole battle.

IMO. [8D]

[herwin]

January 2/3 1942

Don't park merchies in ports within range of B-17s...

Kuala Lumpur is an open city.

Reminds me of a comment I used to see about any ship being a minesweeper--once:

Sub attack near Bandjermasin  at 59,101
 
Japanese Ships
      SS I-156, hits 14, and is sunk
 
Allied Ships
      CL Mauritius, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy damage
      DD Encounter
      BC Repulse
      CL Glasgow

British cruisers of the period had a design error in the layout of their machinery rooms. A single torpedo or mine hit on an engine room often caused them to capsize quickly. It seems to have happened here.

Oopsie, walked into that. However, that sort of casualty fraction is a bit over the top:

Ground combat at 78,60 (near Hong Kong)
 
Allied Shock attack
 
Attacking force 1868 troops, 14 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 60
 
Defending force 20876 troops, 155 guns, 24 vehicles, Assault Value = 654
 
Allied adjusted assault: 0
 
Japanese adjusted defense: 1284
 
Allied assault odds: 1 to 99
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: op mode(-), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-), supply(-)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      1701 casualties reported
         Squads: 88 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 40 destroyed, 18 disabled
         Engineers: 6 destroyed, 1 disabled

Quantity in this game has a quality all of its own:

Ground combat at 85,49 (near Hankow)
 
Allied Shock attack
 
Attacking force 19650 troops, 118 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 519
 
Defending force 6708 troops, 38 guns, 71 vehicles, Assault Value = 238
 
Allied adjusted assault: 495
 
Japanese adjusted defense: 122
 
Allied assault odds: 4 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      1849 casualties reported
         Squads: 27 destroyed, 11 disabled
         Non Combat: 96 destroyed, 7 disabled
         Engineers: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled
      Guns lost 3 (2 destroyed, 1 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 22 (22 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Units retreated 2
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      862 casualties reported
         Squads: 11 destroyed, 63 disabled
         Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 44 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
 
 
Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

If he will be killing me, it's better that it's a company than a battalion:

Ground combat at 88,45 (near Kaifeng)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 12232 troops, 104 guns, 4 vehicles, Assault Value = 394
 
Defending force 197 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 7
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 774
 
Allied adjusted defense: 1
 
Japanese assault odds: 774 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender:
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      36 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Ah, well, the expected firepower losses...

Ground combat at Hankow (85,50)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 36846 troops, 437 guns, 71 vehicles, Assault Value = 878
 
Defending force 18912 troops, 117 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 285
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 1446
 
Allied adjusted defense: 161
 
Japanese assault odds: 8 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), disruption(-), preparation(-)
 fatigue(-), morale(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      804 casualties reported
         Squads: 1 destroyed, 18 disabled
         Non Combat: 19 destroyed, 48 disabled
         Engineers: 8 destroyed, 18 disabled
      Vehicles lost 31 (18 destroyed, 13 disabled)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      7612 casualties reported
         Squads: 257 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 306 destroyed, 4 disabled
         Engineers: 11 destroyed, 6 disabled
      Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)
      Units retreated 4

He who shocks first gets the 2-1... But he's losing on points.

Ground combat at Iba (78,75)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 2138 troops, 19 guns, 71 vehicles, Assault Value = 99
 
Defending force 3998 troops, 73 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 134
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 114
 
Allied adjusted defense: 94
 
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 1)
 
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), fatigue(-), morale(-)
 experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      67 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      85 casualties reported
         Squads: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Shock trumps everything else...

Ground combat at Manado (75,99)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 2351 troops, 12 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 63
 
Defending force 1154 troops, 16 guns, 3 vehicles, Assault Value = 27
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 80
 
Allied adjusted defense: 21
 
Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 0)
 
Japanese forces CAPTURE Manado !!!
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      81 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      221 casualties reported
         Squads: 11 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 19 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Guns lost 5 (5 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 3 (3 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Units retreated 1

Hard to draw conclusions from this:

Ground combat at Mauban (80,78)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 8500 troops, 91 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 216
 
Defending force 4468 troops, 123 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 72
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 58
 
Allied adjusted defense: 9
 
Japanese assault odds: 6 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), disruption(-), preparation(-)
 fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      53 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      189 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Harry,

I'll offer the observation that we have no knowledge of target density. The hex is 46 statute miles across - 1,662 sq miles if I punched in pi*r**2 correctly - so the density is anything from black hole to vacuum. Defender could be compressed into a smaller area as the fight goes on. They could fall back with lots of space behind them and remain at same density. They could spread out more. They could be falling back from one (abstracted) small objective to another.

The real test of this ground combat model has to be at a greater scale. How do things look by the time the battle is over? Not the day, the whole battle.

IMO. [8D]

The war in the Pacific did have low troop densities. The usual European force to hold a WitP-AE hex was an army, and the usual attacking force was an army group. A European corps could screen a maximum frontage of about one hex. So these battles almost always represent local actions in a much larger hex. Still, I'm finding I can predict outcomes fairly accurately by assuming it's a shoot-out at the OK Corral.

[herwin]

January 3/4 1942

The KB is hanging out in the South China Sea. That allows me to hit his warships operating south of the Philippines with my CVTFs. They're currently moving through the Torres Straits and will refuel at Darwin.

He has been hitting Wenchow with Mabels. I think I'll deploy a AVG squadron there for a turn and sweep Canton--the Mabel base.

The day's shock attacks. I'm working on the rule of better to lose a company than a battalion. A bombardment attack at Sinyang also probed the defences. They appear suitably weak for a shock attack next turn.

Ground combat at 78,60 (near Hong Kong)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 13364 troops, 112 guns, 24 vehicles, Assault Value = 653
 
Defending force 300 troops, 13 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 828
 
Allied adjusted defense: 1
 
Japanese assault odds: 828 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(+), disruption(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      231 casualties reported
         Squads: 16 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 33 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Guns lost 5 (2 destroyed, 3 disabled)
      Units retreated 1
 
 
Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Ground combat at 89,45 (near Kaifeng)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 859 troops, 4 guns, 32 vehicles, Assault Value = 45
 
Defending force 234 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 9
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 66
 
Allied adjusted defense: 1
 
Japanese assault odds: 66 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender:
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      25 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      181 casualties reported
         Squads: 18 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Units destroyed 1

Ground combat at Iba (78,75)
 
Allied Shock attack
 
Attacking force 3706 troops, 69 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 127
 
Defending force 2047 troops, 19 guns, 71 vehicles, Assault Value = 91
 
Allied adjusted assault: 64
 
Japanese adjusted defense: 67
 
Allied assault odds: 1 to 2
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      43 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 24 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Vehicles lost 23 (2 destroyed, 21 disabled)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      159 casualties reported
         Squads: 1 destroyed, 24 disabled
         Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 10 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Ground combat at Mauban (80,78)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 8457 troops, 91 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 215
 
Defending force 4339 troops, 123 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 57
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 217
 
Allied adjusted defense: 3
 
Japanese assault odds: 72 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), disruption(-), preparation(-)
 fatigue(-), morale(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      79 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
         Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      1394 casualties reported
         Squads: 244 destroyed, 12 disabled
         Non Combat: 98 destroyed, 5 disabled
         Engineers: 13 destroyed, 1 disabled
      Guns lost 74 (74 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Units destroyed 1

[herwin]

January 4/5 1942

Mostly air actions.

The day's shock attacks--neither of us uses deliberate attacks anymore--

Ground combat at 88,43 (near Kaifeng)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 13356 troops, 108 guns, 4 vehicles, Assault Value = 426
 
Defending force 5736 troops, 43 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 192
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 361
 
Allied adjusted defense: 77
 
Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(+), leaders(-)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      547 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 45 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      2270 casualties reported
         Squads: 78 destroyed, 65 disabled
         Non Combat: 55 destroyed, 42 disabled
         Engineers: 2 destroyed, 7 disabled
      Units retreated 1

Ground combat at Iba (78,75)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 1892 troops, 19 guns, 69 vehicles, Assault Value = 84
 
Defending force 3646 troops, 73 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 103
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 46
 
Allied adjusted defense: 34
 
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 0)
 
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), disruption(-), preparation(-)
 fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      8 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      150 casualties reported
         Squads: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
         Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled

[herwin]

January 5/6 1942

DM Tracy sunk near Hawaii by SS I-4

Don't park your merchies within port strike range of B-17s!

The usual shock attacks:

Ground combat at 89,46 (near Kweiteh)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 6732 troops, 38 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 209
 
Defending force 348 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 10
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 388
 
Allied adjusted defense: 1
 
Japanese assault odds: 388 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      32 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      150 casualties reported
         Squads: 7 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Units retreated 1
      Units destroyed 2

Ground combat at Chengchow (88,44)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 59442 troops, 500 guns, 114 vehicles, Assault Value = 1889
 
Defending force 18686 troops, 98 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 277
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 1241
 
Allied adjusted defense: 235
 
Japanese assault odds: 5 to 1 (fort level 3)
 
Japanese forces CAPTURE Chengchow !!!
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), op mode(-), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      1052 casualties reported
         Squads: 2 destroyed, 49 disabled
         Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 42 disabled
         Engineers: 1 destroyed, 14 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      11064 casualties reported
         Squads: 227 destroyed, 9 disabled
         Non Combat: 421 destroyed, 77 disabled
         Engineers: 47 destroyed, 10 disabled
      Guns lost 15 (15 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Units retreated 9

Ground combat at Iba (78,75)
 
Allied Shock attack
 
Attacking force 3388 troops, 68 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 95
 
Defending force 1935 troops, 19 guns, 71 vehicles, Assault Value = 84
 
Allied adjusted assault: 2
 
Japanese adjusted defense: 97
 
Allied assault odds: 1 to 48
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      37 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      204 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
         Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 11 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Ground combat at Sinyang (86,48)
 
Allied Shock attack
 
Attacking force 26782 troops, 156 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 643
 
Defending force 13590 troops, 91 guns, 11 vehicles, Assault Value = 394
 
Allied adjusted assault: 756
 
Japanese adjusted defense: 1219
 
Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 3)
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), op mode(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      631 casualties reported
         Squads: 1 destroyed, 38 disabled
         Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 30 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      1689 casualties reported
         Squads: 11 destroyed, 192 disabled
         Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 287 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled

Deliberate attack at Bataan. I took the advice and retained significant forces in reserve. Bombardment attack in return.

Ground combat at Bataan (78,77)
 
Japanese Deliberate attack
 
Attacking force 48743 troops, 381 guns, 271 vehicles, Assault Value = 1547
 
Defending force 29574 troops, 577 guns, 228 vehicles, Assault Value = 820
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 781
 
Allied adjusted defense: 1097
 
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 3)
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker:
 
Japanese ground losses:
      3532 casualties reported
         Squads: 7 destroyed, 170 disabled
         Non Combat: 6 destroyed, 70 disabled
         Engineers: 2 destroyed, 12 disabled
      Guns lost 8 (1 destroyed, 7 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 30 (3 destroyed, 27 disabled)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      1602 casualties reported
         Squads: 10 destroyed, 163 disabled
         Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 106 disabled
         Engineers: 1 destroyed, 21 disabled

[herwin]

January 6/7 1942

The usual shock attacks--fitting the model in each case:

Ground combat at Iba (78,75)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 1879 troops, 19 guns, 71 vehicles, Assault Value = 81
 
Defending force 3381 troops, 72 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 87
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 86
 
Allied adjusted defense: 31
 
Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 0)
 
Japanese forces CAPTURE Iba !!!
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), disruption(-), preparation(-)
 fatigue(-), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      47 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
         Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      3651 casualties reported
         Squads: 200 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 190 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 8 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Guns lost 92 (92 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Units destroyed 2

Ground combat at Mauban (80,78)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 8454 troops, 91 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 213
 
Defending force 1974 troops, 58 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 35
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 145
 
Allied adjusted defense: 5
 
Japanese assault odds: 29 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), disruption(-), preparation(-)
 experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), fatigue(-)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      104 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      94 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Ground combat at Utan Melintang (48,77)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 4206 troops, 26 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 127
 
Defending force 51 troops, 1 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 214
 
Allied adjusted defense: 1
 
Japanese assault odds: 214 to 1 (fort level 0)
 
Japanese forces CAPTURE Utan Melintang !!!
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: preparation(-), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(+)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      73 casualties reported
         Squads: 4 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Units destroyed 2

[herwin]

It appears the IJN may be marshalling for an invasion of Balikpapan. The KB is in the centre of the Sulu Sea, surrounded by various SAGs and landing forces. I have five SAGs currently refueling at Soerabaya with a British CVTF in support and I have three American CVTFs moving north towards Ambon after refueling at Darwin. He is blind, while I have patrol squadrons in Balikpapan, Cagayan, Makassar, Kendari, Ambon, Soerabaya, Sorong and Ternate.

"Attack Effectively First."

[herwin]

January 7/8 1942

The KB moves a couple of hexes closer to Balikpapan. I'll just edge back a little and take advantage of the delay to bring my CVTFs to a position off Makassar.

I finished my statistical analysis--see the thread in the War Room--and conclude that the game engine produces seriously unhistorical results about 80% of the time for ground combat. It's actually broken so bad that what it produces has very little overlap with what occurred historically.

Japanese shock attacks near Hankow produce highly ahistorical results. This is particularly hard on the Chinese...

No bases change hands.

[herwin]

January 8/9 1942

Imaginary ground combat results.

Ground combat at Chengchow (88,44)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 62307 troops, 497 guns, 746 vehicles, Assault Value = 2220
 
Defending force 21083 troops, 76 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 630
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 2412
 
Allied adjusted defense: 30
 
Japanese assault odds: 80 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: op mode(-), leaders(+), disruption(-), preparation(-)
 experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      466 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 16 disabled
         Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 31 disabled
         Engineers: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
      Vehicles lost 19 (2 destroyed, 17 disabled)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      12118 casualties reported
         Squads: 191 destroyed, 313 disabled
         Non Combat: 177 destroyed, 316 disabled
         Engineers: 10 destroyed, 17 disabled
      Guns lost 3 (2 destroyed, 1 disabled)
      Units retreated 2

[herwin]

As the Japanese invasion convoy approaches Balikpapan escorted by the KB, the Allied Eastern Fleet (6 SAGs, 4 CVTFs) prepares for the battle on the morn. The Allied SAG commanders know their mission is to close with the KB (and anything else that gets in their way) for night surface engagements, while the Allied CVTFs are preparing for air attacks on the Japanese carrier force. The commander of the Eastern Fleet is relying on the intelligence asymmetry between the two forces to allow him to attack effectively first.

[Cribtop]

Whoa, this should be interesting!