cap_and_gown(j) v witpqs(a) - no witpqs

[veji1]

that's a bummer... A couple of Southern Army divs might have helped you take the place.. So what are the plans now ? Are you just going to go back to the defensive here and just stop him in the north, or are you already devising another offensive line ? You could still try to isolate this cluster of bases, or maybe give Kweilin a try if you can blockade it.

[CapAndGown]

Jan. 31, 1944

The allies captured Wake Island today.

The allies also tried a shock attack at Shiangtan. With his reinforcements witpqs felt he had enough for a successful attack. He did not.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Siangtan (81,52)
Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 64499 troops, 453 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 3606
Defending force 74686 troops, 584 guns, 242 vehicles, Assault Value = 2201

Allied adjusted assault: 395
Japanese adjusted defense: 676

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), preparation(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
3501 casualties reported
Squads: 52 destroyed, 142 disabled
Non Combat: 9 destroyed, 207 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 15 disabled

Allied ground losses:
6549 casualties reported
Squads: 18 destroyed, 479 disabled
Non Combat: 17 destroyed, 435 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 34 disabled

Assaulting units:
74th Chinese Corps
97th Chinese Corps
5th Chinese Cavalry Corps
94th Chinese Corps
79th Chinese Corps
75th Chinese Corps
2nd Chinese Corps
87th Chinese Corps
1st New Chinese Corps
26th Group Army
20th Group Army
6th War Area
18th Chinese Base Force

Defending units:
4th Ind.Infantry Brigade
9th Ind.Infantry Brigade
15th Division
6th Ind.Infantry Brigade
1st Ind.Mixed Brigade
1st Ind.Infantry Brigade
5th Ind.Infantry Brigade
3rd Ind.Infantry Brigade
116th Division
7th Ind.Infantry Brigade
12th Ind.Infantry Brigade
8th Ind.Infantry Brigade
2nd Ind.Infantry Brigade
26th Division
12th Army
23rd Army
RGC Army
4th Mortar Battalion

My units are slowly retreating. They have covered 14 miles so far. Some of the units were very roughly handled. One brigade was almost wiped out. I have put them into reserve so they would not get caught up in any future attacks. Apparently, by putting them in reserve they are able to march faster than their peers and have progressed 20 miles.

Kamikaze Plans

Ever since the Helen IIb came out I have been upgrading bomber squadrons to this plane. This has had the effect of greatly building up the number of Helen IIa's in the pool. I have over 1000 Helen IIa's in the pool right now. I was thinking that it might be nice to convert everyone to this plane since the engines would then be recycled, giving me over 2k Nakajima Ha-34 engines in the pool. On further reflection though, I decided that this very large pool of aircraft should be maintained to be used as Kamikazes. With 4 250kg bombs each, one would think that the effect of a hit by a Helen would be quite spectacular. With their armor, their higher durability, and their defensive MGs, these Helens could quite conceivably be the most effective Kamikazes in the Japanese inventory.

[CapAndGown]

Feb. 1-4, 1944

I have been slow to update this AAR, but the game progresses.

On Feb. 1 the Chinese attacked at Siangtan and achieved 2-1 odds, forcing our units to retreat and causing a large number of casualties. Disruption was the main reason we did so poorly.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Siangtan (81,52)
Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 104137 troops, 655 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 3792
Defending force 69720 troops, 568 guns, 242 vehicles, Assault Value = 2047

Allied adjusted assault: 1765
Japanese adjusted defense: 708

Allied assault odds: 2 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), preparation(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
20374 casualties reported
Squads: 690 destroyed, 170 disabled
Non Combat: 402 destroyed, 261 disabled
Engineers: 44 destroyed, 37 disabled
Guns lost 71 (48 destroyed, 23 disabled)
Vehicles lost 73 (39 destroyed, 34 disabled)
Units retreated 17

Allied ground losses:
4434 casualties reported
Squads: 13 destroyed, 395 disabled
Non Combat: 13 destroyed, 298 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 6 disabled

Assaulting units:
74th Chinese Corps
8th Chinese Corps
94th Chinese Corps
2nd Chinese Corps
87th Chinese Corps
97th Chinese Corps
5th Chinese Cavalry Corps
79th Chinese Corps
1st New Chinese Corps
20th Group Army
26th Group Army
6th War Area
18th Chinese Base Force

Defending units:
12th Ind.Infantry Brigade
7th Ind.Infantry Brigade
6th Ind.Infantry Brigade
3rd Ind.Infantry Brigade
1st Ind.Mixed Brigade
2nd Ind.Infantry Brigade
1st Ind.Infantry Brigade
15th Division
9th Ind.Infantry Brigade
116th Division
8th Ind.Infantry Brigade
4th Ind.Infantry Brigade
26th Division
23rd Army
RGC Army
12th Army
4th Mortar Battalion

Since then there has been a lot of air action in China, though not last turn. There is also a lot of maneuvering. The Chinese are getting frisky.

An empty Moulmein was captured on the 4th by a bunch of British armor:
Assaulting units:
Provisionl Tank Brigade (AV 135)
255th Armoured Brigade (AV 209)
268th Motorised Brigade (AV 152)
50th Tank Brigade (AV 209)
2/3 AIF Pioneer Battalion (AV 31)
Gardner's Horse Regiment (AV 69)
209th Combat Engineer Battalion (AV 29)
11th (East African) Division (AV 391)

There are still 11 units in the woods adjacent to Moulmein marching in that direction.

Not a lot of air action in Thailand.

The allies had been night bombing the airfield at Truk with B-24's. Quite annoying, but not causing too much damage. Yesterday they decided to give it another shot with a large daylight attack. This one turned out no better than the previous ones. The Frank made its combat debut today. It did OK, though not spectacular. I would really like to get the "r" model with its 4 20mm cannons, two of them centerline mounted! The Tojo IIc did pretty well. I am fairly happy with this plane. Despite is relatively low speed (376 mph) it is competitive. The biggest problem is that it is under-armed. The Georges continue to be impressive, both in terms of survivability and lethality. The J2M3 Jack just started producing (currently 90/month). With a service rating of 2, a super-high climb rate and slightly higher speed and maneuverability, that plane should shine. (well, for a Japanese plane. [:D])

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Truk , at 112,108
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 22 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 54
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 77
Ki-84a Frank x 42

Allied aircraft
F4U-1 Corsair x 18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Truk , at 112,108
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 26 NM, estimated altitude 27,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 47
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 65
Ki-84a Frank x 38

Allied aircraft
P-38J Lightning x 25
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Truk , at 112,108
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 17 NM, estimated altitude 28,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 38
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 59
Ki-84a Frank x 32

Allied aircraft
P-38J Lightning x 25
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Truk , at 112,108
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 27 NM, estimated altitude 28,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 33
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 41
Ki-84a Frank x 24

Allied aircraft
P-38J Lightning x 25
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Truk , at 112,108
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 41 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 33
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 38
Ki-84a Frank x 21

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 39
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Truk , at 112,108
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 27 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 22
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 30
Ki-84a Frank x 16

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 9
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Truk , at 112,108
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 30,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 16
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 23
Ki-84a Frank x 12

Allied aircraft
F4U-1 Corsair x 18 [these pilots must have been higher skill, they were quite deadly. but only after the bombers were already shot up!]

Altogether: 36 Corsair, 75 Lightning, 48 B-24

Casualties:
Allied
P-38J - 33 A2A, 9 ops = 42 (56% loss rate - 4 months production!)
F4U-1 - 13 A2A, 4 ops = 17 (47% loss rate)
B-24J - 11 A2A, 4 ops = 15 (31% loss rate)

Japanese
Tojo IIc - 11 A2A, 5 ops = 16 (21% loss rate from initially available, non-reserve AC)
Frank "a" - 9 A2A, 2 ops = 11 (26% loss rate)
N1K1 George - 13 A2A, 1 ops = 14 (26% loss rate)

Although we lost 41 planes shot down or ops losses, only 19 pilots were lost (hopefully the WIA will return.)
9 KIA
10 WIA

Overall, a good day.

OTOH, between China, Burma, and Truk, the drain on our fighter production has us falling behind combat losses. I am ramping up Frank, Tojo, and Jack production. Currently we are producing 240 Tojo IIc's per month. That is going to increase to 300. For Franks, we are currently producing ~180/month. That is increasing right now to 210/month and will be increased further to 270/month. Jack production is at 90/month and is increasing first to 120/month, and then perhaps to 180/month. Georges are still being produced at 40/month, but I hope to be able to shutdown that line soon.

I have not yet seen the Tony Id in action. I am using it as a night fighter at some bases and plan on having a number stationed at my oil facilities in a few months to intercept B-29s. I am afraid of using it on the front line, though, because of its relatively slow speed (360 mph) combined with its very poor maneuverability. Although the George is just as slow, it has a much higher maneuver rating than most of the allied planes it is facing. The most deadly allied plane I have seen so far, in fact, is the Spitfire VIII which combines high speed with high maneuverability. Nevertheless, the centerline mounted 20mm cannons on the Tony and its sevice rating of 2 should make it a decent bomber interceptor.

[CapAndGown]

Feb. 5, 1944

Another massive air battle over Truk. This time the bombers got through, but the Corsairs paid a heavy price.

Allied Planes 159xF4U-1 Corsair, 48xB-24J

Allied Losses:
F4U-1 Corsair - 55 A2A, 11 ops (41% loss rate)
B-24J Liberator - 1 A2A, 2 ops, 1 flak (8% loss rate)

Japanese Losses:
36 x George - 9 A2A (25% loss rate)
59 x Tojo - 12 A2A, 3 ops (25% loss rate)
28 x Frank - 6 A2A (21% loss rate)

Kills claimed by airframe type:
George - 18
Tojo - 16
Frank - 17

As can be seen, the Franks came alive this turn, shooting down, proportionally, more planes than the other types.

Pilot losses: 10 KIA, 8 WIA

Another 4 pilots (1 KIA, 3 WIA) were lost due to being hit on the ground. 4 Tony's were lost on the ground. They were flying night operations. Therefore they were not flying during the day. Unfortunately, the game code is under the impression that pilots in WWII slept in their planes and therefore, when you loses planes to enemy bombing, you are losing pilots as well. In fact, it is more dangerous being on the ground than being shot down. [8|] For 27 planes shot down A2A I only lost 18 pilots. (and some of those might have been lost on the ground, since 4 Tojo's, 3 George, and 2 Franks were destroyed on the ground). But for 4 planes not flying and destroyed on the ground I lost 4 pilots. The code is borked.

For the last two days, the allies have lost
83 x F4U-1 Corsair
44 x P-38J Lightning
19 x B-24J Liberator

The Japanese have lost (including those on the ground)
26 x George
35 x Tojo
19 x Frank

The Liberator casualties on the second day were kept down by the size and effectiveness of the allied sweeps.

The airfield only has 5 service damage.

The question is: why are the allies doing this? What are they hoping to gain? I see several possibilities:
a) a simple desire to wear down my airforce, either pilots or airframes
b) an attempt to neutralize Truk prior to an invasion, either of that island, or of the Marianas
c) a diversion meant to focus my attention on CentPac

It could be all of these at once: a diversion that, if successful could be followed up with an invasion and at the same time wears down my airforce.

What do you think he is up to?

[Captain Cruft]

It's a long way from Ponape/Eniwetok to the Marianas without the over-whelming CV supremacy that existed in reality. If it was me I would HAVE to take Truk first, particularly since I can employ my LBA against it.

[vicberg]

The only thing that makes me wonder is that the 4Es aren't coming to play.  Perhaps he doesn't have the airstrips to do it?  I'd consider that this may be a diversion.  Once the 4Es show up, then you know this is the axis.  Until then, hmmm....

[jrcar]

Cap I too wanted to say thanks for the AAR, you are doing great!

Cheers

Rob

[KenchiSulla]

The raids are to large and he is loosing to many planes for a diversion. He is trying to close Truk down.

[veji1]

Probably giving it a mild hearted go I'd say. Which is silly because a Truk full of engineers and troops is exactly the kind of place you want to bypass, not close... And even if he closed it, without Carrier superiority, an invasion in the area would expose him to the same punishment he got in Ponape and Wotje... I think he is mainly keeping himself busy in this area, keeping you busy, and trying to drain your pools and pilots if he can. The main focus for him still for the next 6 months is going to be Burma/China, if he manages to break through to Thailand, why bother with the Pacific, Palembang and other oil producing centers will become unprotectable...

[Misconduct]

Awesome AAR Cap, been reading for a while without posting, but I've been following your game and using most of your information for my PBEM.

Thanks so much for the insight and information.

[Nemo121]

What he's doing is an error irrespective of his goal.

1. If he's trying to close Truk he's going about it the wrong way. Sweep, sweep, sweep and when your fighter backbone is broken hit it with one or two days of overwhelming bomber strikes. That would cost far less than this half-hearted, mixed effort.

2. If it is a diversion then he is losing the airframes he needs to dominate the skies over the schwerpunkt - this is poor play. In essence his diversion is reducing the chance of his primary thrust succeeding. This is a massive strategic faux pas. Diversions must ALWAYS promote the schwerpunkt, never reduce its chance of success.

3. If it is anything else then he is guilty of a lack of clarity of thought and is frittering away forces in neither a diversion nor a full-blooded effort to take Truk. Again, a serious error.


Overall I think it is most likely that we're seeing a poorly executed attempt to neutralise Truk. The question is why?
1. Is this the instinctual - "I've just lost a huge battle, I've got to hit back somewhere, about the only place the USAAF can hit which matters is Truk so I'll hit that." If that's the case then I would suggest you not seek to defeat this thrust. I do my very best not to dissuade an opponent when they're busy impaling themselves on their own sword. Let his attacks continue and only feed in sufficient forces that you keep a nice level of attrition. Over time you can wear down his forces such that his LBA will take months to recover. If you concentrate too much and destroy one raid in its entirety it may dissuade him from further raids before his LBA and fighter squadrons are sufficiently destroyed that they'll give you the strategic space you need to reinforce your perimeter.

2. He may be trying to reduce Truk so that he can move amphibious TFs into the area free of the spectre of LBA. This is poor strategic thinking as surprise is a far better cloak than suppression of LBA when it comes to protecting shipping. E.g. I recently reinvaded Malaysia with just under 300 ships in a PBEM as the Allies. My total losses comprised one xAK and one xAP. I had NO bombing raids suppressing fields or recon flights in the two weeks preceding the invasion and in the month preceding invasion I had a total of two bombing/recon raids to check the defences. Surprise is a far better cloak than suppression when you don't have CVs able to stand up to KB.

So, really, whatever he is doing it appears to be a mistake you can take advantage of so long as you continue to draw him into committing in such unfavourable circumstances. Just don't commit too much so he doesn't reconsider until attrition has destroyed his 4-engines ability to achieve strategically-relevant results.

[CapAndGown]

Feb. 6, 1942

First off, let me thank Jcar, RedCharlie65 and Misconduct for their kind words. I am glad that this AAR has proven useful. I have learned a lot and I would do things rather differently were I to play this again. I will have more to say about that later, but for now I hope this AAR can provide insight into both winning and losing tactics/doctrines/strategies.

Nemo: I would have to disagree about the sweep-sweep-sweep idea. As long as your opponent can keep feeding in reinforcements, you will never get to the bomb-bomb-bomb part. If the idea is to shutdown the airfield, then you need to work on shutting down the airfield. We are now on day three of the current operation against Truk and witpqs has gotten the service damage up to 35 and runway damage up to 18. Because of the service damage, my planes are repairing slower, particularly the high service rating planes, and this keeping on the ground as effectively as if they had been shot down.

The question is: can he keep it up? He has apparently planned on a sustained campaign here. On the first day, 48 B-24s flew out of Ponape. On the second day, 48 B-24s flew out of Kusaie. On the third day, 48 B-24s again flew out of Ponape. So he has intentionally staggered the commitment of 4E in order to apply steady pressure instead of relying on one big raid. Also, the fighters have been alternating rather than all being committed at once. How long can he continue to sweep the field to clear the way for his bombers, though?

Running Tally of allied fighter strength and losses:
day 1 - 111 fighters, 59 lost
day 2 - 159 fighters, 66 lost
day 3 - 89 fighters, 34 lost

Running Tally of Japanese fighter strength and losses: (excluding ground)
day 1 - 173 fighters, 41 lost
day 2 - 123 fighters, 30 lost
day 3 - 155 fighters, 32 lost

Details of Day 3 action:
56 x F4U-1 - 12 A2A, 4 ops (28% loss rate)
33 x F4U-1A - 16 A2A, 2 ops (54% loss rate)
48 x B-24J - 2 A2A (4% loss rate)

65 x Tojo - 11 A2A, (17% loss rate) +1 ground
24 x George - 7 A2A, 2 ops (37% loss rate) +4 ground (flying night ops)
38 x Tony - 8 A2A, 2 ops (26% loss rate)
28 x Frank - 1 A2A, 1 ops (7% loss rate) +2 ground

Pilot losses:
11 KIA, 5 WIA

Kills claimed by airframe type:
George - 6 kills
Frank - 3 kills
Tony - 6 kills
Tojo - 12 kills

The Tony did not behave as I expected, perhaps because it was flown by rather decent pilots. It was not as deadly as I thought it might be with its highly accurate 20mm cannons. OTOH, it was not as vulnerable as I feared. The loss rate was not out of line for the other airframe types. OTOH, this was only one combat. We will see how that holds up.

Total Corsair F4U-1 losses are now 260. Only 270 are produced and about 50 more arrive with squadrons. So the Marines have just about run out of F4U-1's. Obviously, F4U-1A's are now being produced and their production numbers are much higher. But if he gives those newer Corsairs to the Marines, he will not be able to outfit his CVs with them, which is what I am sure he wanted to do. (That is why, I believe, this operation has mostly relied of the older Corsair - the newer model was being used for the CVs!) On top of that, if these were all marines, and I suspect they were, then the Corps has lost ~100 pilots in the last few days. That is a fairly heavy toll. There are also Army pilots/planes that could be thrown into the mix again. But the P-38J made a very poor combat debut. Probably the pilots were not as good. Maybe he will bring over some P-47s. Right now they seem to be operating in Northern Australia and Burma.

So the allies have taken a hit, but so have the Japanese. I am bringing in reinforcements from other theaters to help out. A George unit that had been practicing on the Chinese is coming down south. A Frank unit and a Tojo unit are also heading over from the DEI.

What is most worrisome is the airfield service damage. This will keep my planes from being repaired. I am also concerned that production of "frontline" fighters (i.e. Tojo IIc, Tony Id, Frank) is not keeping up with losses. I am producing 20 of these planes a day, but losing 30+ a day. I have a bunch of older Tojo IIa's, but I don't want to fight with those! Production is increasing, but that is a slow process.

So, to do something about this situation, I have decided on a bombardment against Ponape. I am going to use my 4 fast BBs plus 2 CAs to bombard Ponape. Right now they are at Satawal and will be in position to make their run tomorrow night. From my recon, and from the fact that no naval attacks against my shipping at Truk have occurred, it seems evident that there are no dive or torpedo bombers at Ponape, just the B-24s. Thus, I am gambling that my ships will not face an air attack tomorrow as they set up for their run into Ponape. With moonlight at 96% and 9 DDs with surface radar, PT boats and enemy surface forces should not be a problem. Also, the appearance of my bombardment group may prompt a pause in the action over Truk as witpqs retreats various air groups to protect them from being destroyed on the ground. That, anyway, is my thinking.

[CapAndGown]

Feb. 7, 1942

The allies are making progress in their effort to shutdown Truk airfield. It looks like they are going to commit everything they have to this effort. What they hope to gain I am not sure, though. I have 3 divisions there, 1400 AV behind 6 forts in Jungle-Rough terrain with a 60,000 man limit. My sense is that an invasion would be a disaster. Short of invasion, what is the point?

At any rate, airfield damage is up to: Service 50, Runway 43
If the Runway goes to 75 the place will be shut down.

Today saw B-17s committed. They had been over in Northern Australia. Now the last of the allied Fortress fleet is being thrown into the battle. For the first time, allied losses were less than Japanese. Our pilots are getting tired. A new formation was flown in today and two old, beat up ones were rotated out to rebuild.

72 x F4U-1A - 20 A2A, 4 ops (33% loss rate)
12 x F4U-1 - 2 A2A (16% loss rate)
47 x B-17E
11 x B-17F
30 x B-24J - 1 flak

George - 3 kills - losses 2 A2A, 5 ground
Tony - 0 kills, - losses 8 A2A, 2 ground
Frank - 7 kills - losses 6 A2A, 1 ground
Tojo - 9 kills - losses 17 A2A, 2 ops, 4 ground

Pilots: 12 KIA, 9 WIA

The Tony's did horrible today, and the Tojo's suffered higher losses than I have ever seen from them. Maybe a symptom of fatigue.

To generate more "second generation" planes for reinforcements, I have now down graded almost all the Tojo IIc formations in China to older planes. The Army is also running low on fighter pilots. I may need to take a couple of front line formations and strip them of veteran pilots and turn them into training formations.

The bright spot is that my bombardment TF was not spotted. Amazing! It consists of 4 x BB, 2 x CA, and 9 x DD = 15 ships. And yet they were not seen. Believe me, I checked, rechecked, and checked again that I have everything set right: no escort bombard, all float planes to night recon with 0 hex range, mission speed, retirement allowed, Truk as home port, min range of 26 (I am sure the allies have put in coastal defense guns and I would like to mostly avoid them. they also no doubt have mines, but they rarely impact bombardment TFs.) At any rate, I think bombardment will come as something of a shock. I just hope it hits the airfield which recon indicates has 135 fighters and about 60 bombers.

[vicberg]

Absolutely no reason for him to invade it.  He's going to do what the allies did IRL.  He's going to neutralize Truk, bypass it for deeper targets and make 1400 AV of POWs.  He can't strike past truk if you have a fully functional air force. 
 
 

[vicberg]

Cap, George is a well read historian.  That's his achilles heal so to speak.  He's following right along with the allied historical advance.  Marshalls, now neutralize Truk.  His next steps will most likely be two step...landings on New Guinea to support invasions on the Phillipines and a deep strike towards Saipan...his carrier losses have put his time table back some, so he may skip New Guinea, and go straight for Saipan.  It's pretty obvious that this is his direction of attack.  It's the most direct route to Tokyo. 

Consider everything in Sopac (and I haven't seen a map in a while, so no idea what's there) at risk.  Also, the 1400 AV in Truk.  It may be too late for them. 

You should consider that if you totally expend yourself in Truk, there may be nothing left for the Marianas.  I haven't looked at your defensive scheme in a while, but I believe you've built up the marianas in a number of places.  Without adequate planes to defend it, he'll step right in and have built in airfields to attack the Phillipines and/or go straight for Iwo-Jima and assault up that chain to japan. 

If victory is Tokyo, and my time table was put back some, I'd go Iwo-Jima, and up from there. 

[vicberg]

I haven't seen the combat results from your carrier battle (and I have been following this AAR for a while), but you didn't get all of them and he's getting a BUNCH more...
 
Nemo121...this isn't an error in thinking.  It's exactly what the allies did IRL.  And it's working. 
 
This truk attack is a preperation.  No way to know his time table.  But say by mid 44, he'll have MORE than enough carriers to do a marianas and New Guinea assault (though I think New Guinea is not an option because of his losses), even with a functional KB, and I doubt he'll make the same mistake twice with his carriers. 
 
You need to decide when to fold on Truk...how many air and pilot losses can you take?  If it's too much, then there won't be much to stop the marianas attack and if that falls, you'll be in trouble.  He may not even go for phillipines to prevent kamakazies...he'll wait for Iwo...there aren't that many island above that could launch kamakazies and he will have quite a few level 4 fields in the marianas to start strategic and tactical bombings.
 
The devious part of me says bail on Truk and hope he thinks it's weak enough to invade.  If he falls for it, he will get involved in a long ground battle and that will set him back much further. 

[castor troy]

The Corsair losses are horrible, losing more than a monthly replacement of the F4U-1, two weeks of the F4U-1A and three weeks´ replacements of the B-24 in three days is something the Allied is absolutely feeling. For my taste, I would have stopped after the first day already, no, I guess I wouldn´t even frontally attack a fully stacked fighter nest because until late 44 it´s still easier for the Japanese to replace fighter losses than it is for the Allied IMO. Doing it that way, the Allied is hurt by far more than the Japanese. Everything below a 3:1 for the Allied in first line aircraft losses is a loss IMO at this date. I´ve just had quite some success with a naval bombardment, so that would be the way to go for me for the first attack.

The problem with "neutralizing" a place is that you can´t in the game IMO if the enemy has got enough eng there. I´ve thought I would do the same with a couple of major Japanese strongholds but having three divs plus support at Truk means the airfield is going to be repaired in a couple of days so permanently shutting it down is more or less impossible. At some point you suddenly meet 200 fighters there again that trash your daily milk run and then the fighters are flown out again when you try to kill them off. Rinse and repeat... Bypassing the place yes, neutralizing it permanently, no. I don´t see much problem of bypassing Truk as it is just too far away from all the other bases. Ok, it of course depends on the exact way the Allies take. All in all, to me it definately looks like a Japanese victory here and like Cap said, an invasion against such a force would only result in a disaster. Not because the Allied can´t take out three divs in general, they just can´t take them out if they only land 60000 troops and landing far more is senseless with the stacking rules.

[krupp_88mm]

i would absolutely not abandon truk, what about using some carrier force with fighters to place cap over truck, you outnumber him so well in carriers now it might be worth it to ambush his carrier planes and 4E's over truk and essentially reset the progress hes made, you wouldnt even have to commit the entire KB and could keep others ready to counter invasions in the Mariannas or elsewhere, this is the last time you'll have an advantage for some time id use it to set back his advance as late as you can, if you can halt his advance to 1945 the game will be won

[CapAndGown]

ORIGINAL: krupp_88mm

i would absolutely not abandon truk, what about using some carrier force with fighters to place cap over truck, you outnumber him so well in carriers now it might be worth it to ambush his carrier planes and 4E's over truk and essentially reset the progress hes made, you wouldnt even have to commit the entire KB and could keep others ready to counter invasions in the Mariannas or elsewhere, this is the last time you'll have an advantage for some time id use it to set back his advance as late as you can, if you can halt his advance to 1945 the game will be won

The problem is that carriers use the Zero which is totally outclassed by Corsairs/P-47s/P-38s. Also, there is no reason to use the carrier planes for anything other than in an anti-shipping role or against land targets where little Flak and few fighters will be located. Castor Troy is right. Although Truk could be shut down for a while, to keep that up would require a huge portion of the 4E fleet. And then what do you get anyway? You still can't invade it successfully.

Believe me, I am not going to abandon it. My guess would be he might like to take for the same reason I so much want to hold it: it is key to my LOC to the Solomons. Without it, supplying my forces in the Solomons would be almost impossible. (OTOH, I am now starting to draw down my strength in the Solomons for use elsewhere.)

[CapAndGown]

Feb. 8, 1944

Our bombardment run did alright.

First, we ran into two separate groups of PTs. What was interesting is that they did not try to engage us but instead tried to flee right off the bat. One of the groups even had a message about "allied TF tries to get underway." Odd. I guess they didn't have any ammo.

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Night Time Surface Combat, near Ponape at 119,113, Range 8,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
BB Kongo
BB Haruna
BB Hiei
BB Kirishima
CA Kumano
CA Aoba
DD Hamakaze
DD Nowaki
DD Arashi
DD Hagikaze
DD Tanikaze
DD Asashio
DD Shigure
DD Murasame
DD Harusame
DD Yamakaze

Allied Ships
PT-285
PT-286, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
PT-287, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
PT-288, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
PT-295, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
PT-296, Shell hits 2, and is sunk

Improved night sighting under 100% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Overcast Conditions and 100% moonlight: 8,000 yards
CONTACT: Japanese radar detects Allied task force at 12,000 yards
Range closes to 11,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 11,000 yards
Allied ships attempt to get underway

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Allied Ships
PT-297
PT-298
PT-299
PT-300
PT-301
PT-320

Improved night sighting under 100% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Overcast Conditions and 100% moonlight: 8,000 yards
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 14,000 yards
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 11,000 yards
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 9,000 yards
Allied TF attempts to evade combat
Allied PT Boat TF evades combat

Next up, two of our DDs hit mines. One was sunk right away. They other may be sunk tomorrow by enemy air activity. It is right now only 2 hexes away from Ponape. I have ordered it to head to Rabaul at full speed, but that is only 4 hexes a day, and with 76 float damage a full speed run may rip the hull wide open even without any enemy attacks.

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TF 11 encounters mine field at Ponape (119,113)

Japanese Ships
DD Harusame, Mine hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DD Shigure, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Normally, bombardment TFs will not hit mines. In this case, however, I suspect that since the minefield was not detected ahead of time, it made our ships more likely to hit any mines there. (which actually would not be possible IRL at Ponape since the place is a seamount.)

Finally, we come to the bombardment. I suppose I should not complain since I did alright. Nevertheless, I believe that when bombarding we should be given the option of what to shoot at, just like when bombing we can target ports, airfields, or ground troops.

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Night Naval bombardment of Ponape at 119,113

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1 Corsair: 3 destroyed on ground
B-17E Fortress: 5 destroyed on ground
P-38J Lightning: 4 destroyed on ground
B-24J Liberator: 3 destroyed on ground
F4U-1A Corsair: 5 destroyed on ground
B-17F Fortress: 1 destroyed on ground

Japanese Ships
BB Kirishima
BB Hiei
BB Haruna
BB Kongo
CA Aoba
CA Kumano

Allied ground losses:
286 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 11 destroyed, 47 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 17 (4 destroyed, 13 disabled)
Vehicles lost 20 (4 destroyed, 16 disabled)

Airbase hits 17
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 39

BB Kirishima firing at Ponape
E13A1 Jake acting as spotter for BB Hiei
BB Hiei firing at 7th Infantry Division [8|]
BB Haruna firing at Ponape
BB Kongo firing at 7th Infantry Division [8|]
E13A1 Jake acting as spotter for CA Aoba
CA Aoba firing at 33rd Infantry Division [8|]
CA Kumano firing at 7th Infantry Division [8|]

Here is the day's tally as reported by Tracker:
F4U-1A - 11 ground
F4U-1 - 4 ground
P-38J - 8 ground
B-17E - 7 ground
B-17F - 2 ground
B-24J - 6 ground, 2 ops

I don't understand the Lightings. That makes a total of 50 that have been lost. And I have seen 75 actually in the air. Yet they only produce at a rate of 10 a month starting in Dec. 43 and none arrive with squadrons. Supposedly, then, there should only be ~20 of them available. So where did the 75 come from? [&:]

By my (apparently faulty) calculations, the allies have only 40-50 F4U-1 left and they have burned up 1 month of F4U-1A production out of 4 months production so far. (F4U-1A starts in Oct. 43) They should be down to just 16 B-17F. Unfortunately, they may still have ~90 B-17E left. [:(] And, of course, Liberators are going to be very abundant no matter what I do. (double [:(])

While the losses caused to allied AC were OK, more important was a pause in the allied bombing/sweeping campaign. I don't know if that was a result of the bombardment, or whether they were going to have a pause anyway. According to recon, the airfield at Ponape is 29% damaged. That obviously is down from whatever the BBs caused and is subject to FOW anyway. Recon indicates there are more fighters there today (196) then there were yesterday (135). So rather than backing off, it looks like witpqs was ramping up his commitment to this campaign.

Interestingly, there were no P-47s lost. Just Lightnings and Corsairs.

For my own part, runway damage at Truk, which was at 43 yesterday came down to 9 today. Service damage, of course, remained at 50. More importantly, my fighter groups got a rest and my reinforcements are now in place ready to rebase to Truk while the groups currently at Truk can be pulled out to rebuild and rest.

Perhaps most odd, the bombardment TF has still not been spotted! As far as witpqs knows, they came out of Rabaul since that is the direction my damaged DD is heading in and he has spotted that ship and its escorts. In reality, the bombardment group is heading to Truk (2 hexes away) to refuel and rearm.