Advice wanted

[jjdenver]

Hi,

Given this situation on Soviet turn 5:

Pz Gruppe 2 and 3 are just behind the German infantry lines - having rested for at least a week and some units for 2 weeks.

Germany infantry of AGC is all forward (none lagging)

Soviet fort levels are in decent shape - level 1/2 in most places

Since the Soviets are forted up I'm tempted to sit in place but the rested Pz Gruppes just behind the lines are scary.

Would it be better to remain in place and hope to avoid a single-turn encirclement attack by the Panzers?

Or is it going to be easy for the panzers to create a large pocket - so Soviets should fall back 40-50 miles, giving ground to avoid any encirclement opportunity?

Advice wanted from an experienced playtester if possible - I still don't have a good sense for when and how quickly the Germans can penetrate a fortified position like this in summer 41. Is it a 2-turn operation so I'll have a chance to fall back with minimal units trapped? Or will they blow through and create a big encirclement so I'd better scram now?

[karonagames]

Need a bit more information to give a better assessment.

Is this a Campaign game?

What's happening near Velikiye Luki- is PZ gruppe 4 heading in that direction?

In general, I think your deployment is pretty good. The Dnepr stops him making major out flanking moves. He could make a small pocket in the Orsha land bridge and punch towards Smolensk.

Your threat of encirclement comes if PZG 3 swings around the north of Vitebsk, and PZG2 gets a bridgehead at Mogilev. If he does this, and he knows about HQ Buildup, it will definitely be time to get out of Dodge, and start building defenses along the Rzhev/Vyazma/Kaluga line. By the time he reaches that, his supply line will be at max and his pocket making potential reduced.

edit: The only mistake I can see is that you don't seem to have units in the swamps east of the river, north west of Vitebsk, they are great defensive terrain, so you have given him an easier time if he wants to bypass Vitebsk to the north.

[jjdenver]

GC turn 5.

Pz Gruppe 1 is around Pskov with at least one infantry army of AGN. The other AGN infantry army is near Talinn. AGN is clearly focused on a drive for Leningrad and I don't expect a threat to the Smolensk area from them. The German deployment is historical AGN/C/S currently.

So it sounds like you'd ensure a quick penetration N of Vitebsk isn't possible, and hold tight for a turn to see what he can manage - then pull back once his attack starts?

[karonagames]

So it sounds like you'd ensure a quick penetration N of Vitebsk isn't possible, and hold tight for a turn to see what he can manage - then pull back once his attack starts?

Yes, once he gets a bridgehead, you have to decide whether to risk a counter attack with your tank divs - some of which look to have good CVs, or save them for another day. Flavio would probably go for the counter attack, but I am more conservative, and would probably start counter-attacking after turn 8 when his fatigue levels will be higher and his ammo levels will be lower - if you see combat reports where panzers have attacked 2 or 3 times in their turn, they will have less than 50% ammo during your turn, and will be ripe for a counter attack (unless he has air-dropped ammo to them).