Grand Campaign Haudrauf (Axis) vs. Miller41 (no Miller41 please)

[MrLongleg]

ORIGINAL: buchand

If Uncle Joe Stalin had retreated inteligently then history would have been different.
In my very limited experience:
a. Not sure about concentrating Pz Groups. gives great spearhead power but may be hindering keeping the line fluid?

You can see that here - it is hard to catch those fleeing bastards ! Regarding a) I think that a meaningful breach can only be achieved with concentrated power in one spot (Schwerpunkt Doktrin). It works all the time. As soon as I break his defenses he leaves his lines and runs for the East.

ORIGINAL: buchand

b. While I understand about Pz Grp 4 and terrain looks like you are screwed in the north.

It is not as bad as it looks - made some nice progress breaking the in between rail on turn 14. (See next report)

ORIGINAL: buchand

c. The historical move south of Pz Grp 2 is always tempting but ....

Without that move I probably still try to cross the Dnepr in the South. He had a very solid line down there and I would never have been able to pocket anything. But of course it is speculative. I certainly would be on the gates of Moscow now.

The great thing about this game is that there are lot of tough choices to make.

[MrLongleg]

Turn 14: Slow progress in the north. We shoved that 3 div infantry stack 20 miles to the East opening a new approach for the rail line.

In the middle we were able to isolate 6 divisions and the defenders of Orel have the choice to retreat or die.

In the south we only isolated one division. Not much time today.

Turn 15 already played - expect a nice pocket to be formed - can you tell where?

[MrLongleg]

Turn 15: Center: PzGroup 2 and 3 cut wholes into Marshall Millers defenses and start a pocket with the potential to contain 20+ divisions.

North: Another 40 miles of progress - but chances are close to none that we will be able to cut the rail link before the mud kicks in. 20 miles never looked that far [:@]

In the south we put 2 PZCorps in preparation for another (last) pocketing operation before the Blizzard..

Comments are welcome, as always [:)]

[MrLongleg]

Turn 16 - only one more clear turn left.

Well - this is the moment of truth. Our attempts to isolate Leningrad have to be considered as a failure. I have to retreat the long pincer of 4th Panzer to shorten my front line for the coming winter. Was a nice try - but there are simply too many opposing forces there.

Any ideas what to do with the frontline in front of Leningrad - dig in and keep them there or retreat a couple hexes?

In the southern center I was able to form a very nice pocket with 20 units in it. This will probably be the last significant success this year.

In the south Kharkov abd Dneprpetrovsk are doomed.

Anybody reading this? Comments are always welcome...[;)]

[karonagames]

Good timing for the pocket, which you can clear up during the mud. You do have 3 turns of snow to get your lines in some sort of order for the Blizzard. If you can get your infantry in a line running from Stalino to the Sea of Azov then about 3 hexes in front of Kharkov, 6 in front of Kursk, you will be in a reasonably good situation in the south. In the Center I would prefer to be 4-6 hexes in front of Kaluga and Rzhev.

In the North, I think you have to go for broke to isolate Leningrad, clear it out and redeploy as much as you can to the centre during the mud and snow turns. You have 9 turns before the blizzard hits. In mud you need 3-4 times as much force compared to clear turns, so the number of attacks you can make will be limited, but you will be able to position forces for a mini blitz in the snow - consider HQ buildup in the "must win" sectors

I think you have got the Sovs pretty disrupted, and it might take him a while to pull his forces together for the winter counter offensive, so you may not see a lot of pressure in the first 4 turns of Blizzard.

[Ketza]

Nice aar. I am learning quite a bit from reading it.

[MrLongleg]

ORIGINAL: BigAnorak


In the North, I think you have to go for broke to isolate Leningrad, clear it out and redeploy as much as you can to the centre during the mud and snow turns. You have 9 turns before the blizzard hits. In mud you need 3-4 times as much force compared to clear turns, so the number of attacks you can make will be limited, but you will be able to position forces for a mini blitz in the snow - consider HQ buildup in the "must win" sectors

Thanks for your comment - what you say makes a lot of sense. So you are talking about an all or nothing at all attack in the north. If that fails I will probably loose Panzer Group 4 - or I will need a lot ore infantry to protect the extended flank here. But of course, if I win this this will be the mother of all pockets. Just currently I don't think I have enough forces for the final push to link up with the Fins.

[karonagames]

If you haven't moved the Panzer corps HQs they could be eligible for HQ Buildup that would give the attached divs 50 Mps next turn. If they are not eligible, then you have one turn of clear, so you could stop going head on at Leningrad, thin out 18th army to screen Leningrad and send 4th Panzer NW to cut the rail line and isolate the ports from supply. Send 16th Army to protect 4th PZs Flanks. If you can't isolate Leningrad in the clear turn, redeploy during the Mud. Use HQ buildup during the last mud turn and isolate Leningrad in the first snow turn, clear out Leningrad in the second snow turn and redeploy for the Blizzard in the next snow turn.

You will not have dug in much, but the terrain up north slows the SU down as much as it slowed you down.

Once the Finns are active they will stop him re-taking Leningrad as they operate at full strength - indeed they can carry on attacking.

[jjdenver]

ORIGINAL: Haudrauf1962
Anybody reading this? Comments are always welcome

I'm reading and enjoying but have no constructive comments really.

[Klydon]

My original comments in front of Leningrad were going to be to back off to just in front of the Luga river and dig on the good defensive terrain there with more units digging in behind the Luga. You can use Novgorod as your eastern anchor point. I originally agreed with you on pulling out, especially since the rail head is so far away from the troops in the salient, but after reading BigA's comments I think he makes a great case in going for broke in the area. Certainly, the Soviets have pushed a lot of chips in the area and if you can cut them off and crush most of them, it will not only be demoralizing to him, but also be a lot less Russians to cause trouble during the blizzard.

The real gamble would be a "frosts" offensive. The Germans regain a lot during those three turns and can just absolutely slap a unprepared or over anxious Russian silly. It is all about the timing tho as you need to encircle on one turn, kill on the next and get yourself prepared on the following turn to face 12 turns of Russian onslaught. The sole exception could well be Leningrad simply because if that third turn means freeing the Finns, then you have first rate troops that don't care how cold it is and you can retire your tired, cold and depleted Germans behind the now free, fresh and rampaging Finns. You will have to get together some good assault groups for Leningrad because you will only get two turns max to clean it out unless you can somehow get it isolated and can work on it during the mud. Lot of deliberate attacks.

[ComradeP]

I'd advise against trying to isolate Leningrad. You need to capture 7 to 8 hexes to link up with the Finns, many of which are heavy woods or swamp hexes (no way in hell you're going to capture those with mobile forces) and all of your mobile units might be isolated during the mud. You have no rail line leading to your spearhead and enemy ZOC will add serious amounts of MP's to the maximum MP distance in order to be in supply.

You have no real flank screen, with 2 turns a good Soviet player can isolate your entire Panzer Group. It's too risky. You tried, the attempt failed, now it's time to pull back and preserve your forces. The Axis really can't afford to gamble with an entire Panzer Group.

I don't understand why your opponent isn't trying to cut you off. He only needs to advance 3 hexes.

I'll repeat the advise again: DON'T try to advance further in the AGN area. Bob's plan is highly optimistic, and optimism is a killer when you're the Axis.

I'll illustrate the point I'm trying to make. The advance in red can be made with a couple of Rifle divisions and would put enough pressure on your flanks to force you to withdraw. The advance in black is the "you're screwed" scenario, which can be done with about an army on each side. I'm amazed your opponent is concentrating most of his forces where you're strong (whilst there isn't always a direct benefit), instead of where you're weak. Withdrawing from the hexes west of Pushkin and moving a new army south of the Msta would allow him to make the counterattack in black, which you can't really counter as you don't have the forces in the area to do so for the moment.

[karonagames]

Bob's plan is highly optimistic, and optimism is a killer when you're the Axis.

I am a poker player so I am used to playing the odds. Moving first is a huge advantage - if things don't work then get out of Dodge. With 50 MPs from HQ buildup you can make 2 deliberate attacks and still have 18 MPs for advancing.

Every player will develop their own style of play,and no way am I saying that my suggestion is guaranteed to work, but you have worked hard to get to this point where you have a chance to capture a major objective- you may not get another chance. You have to decide how important Leningrad is to your overall plan.

[ComradeP]

What is he going to hold the Panzer Group's flanks with as he advances? The two infantry divisions he hasn't split up yet? I really don't see how an advance like that is going to happen. 1 clear weather turn, mud after that which might isolate his forces (they'll be a fair distance from a functional rail line and need to be supplied across a minor river and through wooded and swampy terrain) and then snow. Keep in mind that in those mud turns, the Soviets can rail very significant reinforcements to the area. If the weather would be clear to snow and he could keep advancing, it might work, but not with mud in between that will allow the Soviets to turn the area into a fortress.

[MrLongleg]

Thanks about the encouraging comments and the discussion about how to progress. A counter attack of Marshall Miller definitely killed the last bit of hope to break through at the designated position. 5th Pz Div, my spearhead was attacked with 8 rifle divisions, more than 100,000 men and had to retreat losing 25% of its AFV. Alone in the proximity of the spearhead I was counting 25 Russian divisions. The position there is untenable in the mud - so I retreated and tried to win some ground to the north-west. But of cause, as ComradeP mentioned, Marshall Miller will use the mud turns to put at least 30 divisions into my path. But I will try to straighten my lines there and cut of some of the defenders north east of Novgorod.

Turn report follows...

[ComradeP]

Hmm, that's some unlucky CV modifier rolling for the Germans again. This is another fine example of an attack that would fail when you're the Axis, but works when you're the Soviets solely due to the +1 odds modifier. If I were to guess, losses were probably not that high until you had to retreat. It's the retreat losses that are a real killer for battles like this.

[karonagames]

30 divisions into my path.

Well at least that is 30 divisions he can't use in the centre or south - if he has committed that much you must have opportunities elsewhere on the front.

[MrLongleg]

ORIGINAL: BigAnorak

30 divisions into my path.

Well at least that is 30 divisions he can't use in the centre or south - if he has committed that much you must have opportunities elsewhere on the front.

That is right - I was able to pocket another 20+ units in turn 17. He must have put a lot of resources into the defense of Leningrad.

[MrLongleg]

Turn 17 - last turn before the mud.

In the north 4th Panzer Group evacuated the salient because it became untenable and there was no hope for a real break through. Supported by 16th army infantry we attacked to the west of the salient and were able to progress 30 miles. That should help to straighten the line for the winter.

2nd army finally could take Rhzev by threatening he defenders with encirclement.

9th army is already digging in for the winter and has level 3 fortifications almost along the whole line.

4th army successfully eliminated the 20+ unit pocket sealed last turn.

Panzer group 2 and 3 created a new pocket north east of Kursk.

6th army took Kharkov, while 17th army created a pocket around Belgorod.

11th army surrounded the defenders of Z-town.

In the mud season I will retreat my PzGroups 1, 2 and 3 behind the infantry lines for refit. They will become my fire brigade in the Blizzard. Maybe I can pull a surprise offensive out of the hat in the snow turns. Currently he does not expect any attacks in the Moscow area - not many defenses there. A hard surprise push there should catch him off balance.

[MrLongleg]

For the coming spring I consider adding the bulk of PzGroup 4 to AGC in exchange for an 2 corps infantry army. 2nd Pz Group would then move to AGS - the terrain is much more suited for tank operations down there. I might keep two or there mobile infantry divs as a mobile corps with AGN.

Any comments on that idea?

[Skacee]

Like it [:)]. Like real war. I will put more Pz. div in order to cut Leningrad  (Volkhov river direction) as a priority using HQ built up. But it needs also another strong thrust (surrounding Tula?) so Miller has to decide. Also noticed soviets getting stronger.