War in the Pacific as Planned--Allied

[herwin]

January 9/10 1942

"A complete tactical surprise"

Saratoga sunk. Lexington badly damaged. Enterprise and Hermes undamaged. Bunch of surface ships sunk including a lot of Japanese transports. The afternoon air attacks encountered CAP from Akagi, Shokaku, Ryujo, and Zuiho, but there were hits reported on all four.

Hiryu had been previously torpedoed, so there were five CVs with the KB. The mini-KB had two CVLs. My SAGs were able to engage all the Japanese carriers. Here's the butcher's bill:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Balikpapan at 65,98, Range 8,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      CM Itsukushima, Shell hits 19, and is sunk
      DD Kuretake
      DD Sanae
      DD Asagao
      DD Fuyo, Shell hits 1
      AK Hirokawa Maru
      AK Sado Maru, Shell hits 1
      xAK Kyusyu Maru
      xAK Tamagawa Maru
      xAK Toa Maru
      xAK Teikoku Maru
      xAK Yamakaze Maru, Shell hits 7,  heavy fires
      xAK Yamazato Maru
      xAK Yamagiri Maru, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Santos Maru
      xAP Hakone Maru, Shell hits 2
      xAP Takatiho Maru
 
Allied Ships
      CA Exeter
      CL Dragon
      CL Caledon
      DD Express, Shell hits 2
      DD Isis
      DD Jupiter
 

Day Time Surface Combat, near Balikpapan at 65,98, Range 19,000 Yards
 
Allied aircraft
      no flights
 
Allied aircraft losses
No Allied losses
 
Japanese Ships
      BB Nagato
      BB Mutsu, Shell hits 4
      BB Fuso
      BB Yamashiro
      BB Ise
      BB Hyuga, Shell hits 1
      DD Oboro, Shell hits 1,  on fire
      DD Sazanami
      DD Ushio
      DD Uzuki
      DD Tsuta
      PB Taiko Maru,  on fire
      PB Suyozai Maru,  heavy fires
      PB Toko Maru #4
      xAK Tenryu Maru
      xAK Ishikari Maru
      xAK Taifuku Maru
      xAK Atago Maru,  on fire
      xAK Meiyo Maru
      xAK Nanrei Maru
      xAK Konan Maru
      xAK Macassar Maru
      xAK Nansin Maru
      xAK Nittai Maru
      xAK Shinsei Maru
      xAK Toyu Maru
      xAK Tosei Maru
      xAK Zyuyo Maru
 
Allied Ships
      CA Exeter, Shell hits 16, and is sunk
      CL Dragon
      CL Caledon, Shell hits 2,  on fire
      DD Express
      DD Isis, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      DD Jupiter
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Balikpapan at 65,98, Range 26,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      BB Nagato
      BB Mutsu
      BB Fuso
      BB Yamashiro
      BB Ise
      BB Hyuga
      DD Oboro,  on fire
      DD Sazanami
      DD Ushio
      DD Uzuki
      DD Tsuta
      PB Taiko Maru,  on fire
      PB Suyozai Maru,  heavy fires
      PB Toko Maru #4
      xAK Tenryu Maru
      xAK Ishikari Maru
      xAK Taifuku Maru
      xAK Atago Maru,  on fire
      xAK Meiyo Maru
      xAK Nanrei Maru
      xAK Konan Maru
      xAK Macassar Maru
      xAK Nansin Maru
      xAK Nittai Maru
      xAK Shinsei Maru
      xAK Toyu Maru
      xAK Tosei Maru
      xAK Zyuyo Maru
 
Allied Ships
      CVL Hermes
      CA Cornwall
      CL Enterprise
      CL Colombo
      DD Vampire
      DD Vendetta
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Balikpapan at 65,98, Range 19,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      DD Yukikaze, Shell hits 1
      DD Tokitsukaze, Shell hits 6,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Yamakaze
 
Allied Ships
      CVL Hermes, Shell hits 2
      CA Cornwall, Shell hits 2
      CL Enterprise, Shell hits 2
      CL Colombo, Shell hits 2
      DD Vampire, Shell hits 1
      DD Vendetta
 
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Balikpapan at 65,98, Range 17,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      DD Murasame
      DD Harusame
      DD Yudachi, Shell hits 2
      DD Samidare, Shell hits 2,  heavy fires
 
Allied Ships
      BC Repulse, Shell hits 5,  on fire
      CL Glasgow
      DD Stronghold, Shell hits 1,  on fire
      DD Encounter, Shell hits 1,  heavy fires
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Balikpapan at 65,97, Range 20,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      DD Kuretake, Shell hits 1
      DD Sanae
      DD Fuyo, Shell hits 2,  on fire
      AK Hirokawa Maru, Shell hits 13,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      AK Sado Maru, Shell hits 3,  on fire
      xAK Kyusyu Maru, Shell hits 9,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Tamagawa Maru, Shell hits 3
      xAK Toa Maru, Shell hits 3,  heavy fires
      xAK Teikoku Maru, Shell hits 11,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Yamazato Maru, Shell hits 5,  on fire
      xAK Santos Maru, Shell hits 7,  on fire
      xAP Hakone Maru, Shell hits 10,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAP Takatiho Maru, Shell hits 2
 
Allied Ships
      CA Exeter
      CL Dragon
      CL Caledon
      DD Express, Shell hits 1
      DD Isis
      DD Jupiter
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Balikpapan at 65,97, Range 20,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      DD Yukikaze, Shell hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Tokitsukaze, Shell hits 4,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Yamakaze
 
Allied Ships
      BC Repulse, Shell hits 4,  on fire
      CL Glasgow, Shell hits 1
      DD Stronghold,  on fire
 
Japanese Ships
      DD Akebono
      DD Mutsuki
      DD Kisaragi
      DD Yayoi
      DD Mochizuki
      AO Ken'yo Maru
      AO Kokuyo Maru
      AO Kyokuto Maru
      AO Nippon Maru
      AO Shinkoku Maru
      AO Toei Maru
      AO Toho Maru
 
Allied Ships
      CL Marblehead,  on fire
      DD Bulmer,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Paul Jones,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Balikpapan at 66,98, Range 18,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      CV Kaga, Shell hits 4
      CV Soryu
      CV Shokaku, Shell hits 1
      CV Zuikaku, Torpedo hits 1,  on fire
      CV Akagi, Shell hits 1
      BB Hiei
      BB Kirishima
      CA Maya
      CA Ashigara
      CL Naka
      CL Abukuma
      DD Akigumo
      DD Kagero
      DD Isokaze
      DD Shiranui
      DD Urakaze
      DD Hamakaze
      DD Tanikaze
      DD Natsugumo
      DD Minegumo
      DD Asagumo, Shell hits 2,  on fire
 
Allied Ships
      BC Repulse, Shell hits 10
      CL Glasgow
      DD Stronghold
      DD Tenedos, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      DD Encounter
 
Night Time Surface Combat, near Donggala at 68,98, Range 8,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      CV Kaga
      CV Soryu
      CV Shokaku
      CV Zuikaku
      CV Akagi
      BB Hiei
      BB Kirishima, Shell hits 1
      CA Maya
      CA Ashigara
      CL Naka
      CL Abukuma
      DD Akigumo
      DD Kagero
      DD Isokaze
      DD Shiranui
      DD Urakaze
      DD Hamakaze
      DD Tanikaze
      DD Natsugumo
      DD Minegumo
      DD Asagumo
 
Allied Ships
      CL Marblehead, Shell hits 2,  on fire
      DD Barker
      DD Bulmer
      DD Stewart, Shell hits 2,  heavy fires
      DD Paul Jones
      DD Parrott
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Donggala at 68,98, Range 15,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      CL Natori, Shell hits 2
      CL Kuma
      DD Satsuki
      DD Minazuki
      DD Fumizuki, Shell hits 1
      DD Nagatsuki
      DD Asakaze, Shell hits 1
      DD Harukaze
      DD Matsukaze
      DD Hatakaze
 
Allied Ships
      CL De Ruyter, Shell hits 2
      DD Piet Hein
      DD Witte de With, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      DD Banckert
      DD Van Ghent
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Donggala at 68,98, Range 15,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      CL Natori
      CL Kuma, Shell hits 1
      DD Satsuki
      DD Minazuki
      DD Fumizuki
      DD Nagatsuki
      DD Asakaze
      DD Harukaze
      DD Matsukaze, Shell hits 1,  on fire
      DD Hatakaze, Shell hits 1,  on fire
 
Allied Ships
      CL Java, Shell hits 3
      CL Tromp
      DD Evertsen, Shell hits 2,  on fire
      DD Van Nes, Shell hits 1
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Donggala at 68,98, Range 18,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      CVL Ryujo, Shell hits 1
      CVL Zuiho, Shell hits 2
      DD Hayashio
      DD Amatsukaze, Shell hits 1
      DD Nenohi, Shell hits 1
      DD Hatsushima
 
Allied Ships
      CL Java, Shell hits 1
      CL Tromp
      DD Evertsen, Shell hits 2,  heavy fires
      DD Van Nes,  on fire
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Donggala at 68,98, Range 19,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      CVL Ryujo
      CVL Zuiho
      DD Hayashio
      DD Amatsukaze
      DD Nenohi
      DD Hatsushima
 
Allied Ships
      CL De Ruyter
      DD Piet Hein, Shell hits 2
      DD Banckert, Shell hits 3,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Van Ghent, Shell hits 2,  on fire
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Donggala at 67,98, Range 20,000 Yards
 
Allied aircraft
      no flights
 
Allied aircraft losses
No Allied losses
 
Japanese Ships
      BB Nagato, Shell hits 5
      BB Mutsu, Shell hits 1
      BB Fuso, Shell hits 1
      BB Yamashiro, Shell hits 2
      BB Ise, Shell hits 5
      BB Hyuga
      DD Oboro
      DD Sazanami
      DD Ushio
      DD Uzuki
      DD Tsuta
      PB Taiko Maru, Shell hits 1,  on fire
      PB Suyozai Maru, Shell hits 1,  on fire
      PB Toko Maru #4
      xAK Tenryu Maru
      xAK Ishikari Maru
      xAK Taifuku Maru
      xAK Atago Maru, Shell hits 1
      xAK Meiyo Maru
      xAK Nanrei Maru
      xAK Konan Maru
      xAK Macassar Maru
      xAK Nansin Maru
      xAK Nittai Maru
      xAK Shinsei Maru
      xAK Toyu Maru
      xAK Tosei Maru
      xAK Zyuyo Maru
 
Allied Ships
      CA Houston, Shell hits 14, and is sunk
      CL Boise, Shell hits 12, and is sunk
      DD Alden, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
      DD Edsall, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
      DD John D. Edwards, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
      DD Whipple, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Donggala at 67,98, Range 19,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      DD Kuroshio
      DD Oyashio
      DD Hatsukaze
      DD Yomogi
 
Allied Ships
      CL Marblehead, Shell hits 3,  on fire
      DD Bulmer, Shell hits 12,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Stewart, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
      DD Paul Jones, Shell hits 6,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Donggala at 67,98, Range 21,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      CVL Ryujo
      CVL Zuiho
      DD Hayashio
      DD Amatsukaze
      DD Nenohi
      DD Hatsushima
 
Allied Ships
      CL Marblehead,  on fire
      DD Bulmer,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Paul Jones,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Lucena at 79,80, Range 18,000 Yards (Manila naval forces attempting to escape to Singapore in the confusion)
 
Japanese Ships
      DD Yamagumo
      DD Ikazuchi, Shell hits 1,  on fire
      DD Inazuma
      DD Tachikaze
 
Allied Ships
      AS Holland, Shell hits 22, and is sunk
      AM Whippoorwill, Shell hits 11, and is sunk
      AM Tanager, Shell hits 15, and is sunk
      AM Quail, Shell hits 13, and is sunk
      AO Pecos, Shell hits 31, and is sunk
      AO Trinity, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      xAK Tantalus, Shell hits 23, and is sunk
      xAK Cape Fairweather, Shell hits 41, and is sunk
      xAK Capillo, Shell hits 18, and is sunk

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Balikpapan at 66,100
 
Weather in hex: Light rain
 
Raid detected at 132 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 49 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M2 Zero x 20
      B5N2 Kate x 45
      D3A1 Val x 42
 
 
 
Allied aircraft
      F2A-3 Buffalo x 4
 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
      B5N2 Kate: 15 damaged
      B5N2 Kate: 5 destroyed by flak
      D3A1 Val: 4 damaged
 
Allied aircraft losses
      F2A-3 Buffalo: 1 destroyed
 
Allied Ships
      CA Chicago, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CV Lexington, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires
      CA Portland, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 2,  on fire,  heavy damage
      CA Astoria, Torpedo hits 1
      DD Lamson
      DD Porter
      DD Drayton, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires
      DD Mahan
 
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Balikpapan at 66,100
 
Weather in hex: Light rain
 
Raid detected at 100 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 43 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A5M4 Claude x 10
      A6M2 Zero x 6
      B5N1 Kate x 15
 
 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      B5N1 Kate: 3 damaged
      B5N1 Kate: 1 destroyed by flak
 
Allied Ships
      CA Astoria, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1,  on fire,  heavy damage
      CV Lexington, Torpedo hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
 
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Balikpapan at 65,98
 
Weather in hex: Severe storms
 
Raid spotted at 101 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 37 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M2 Zero x 6
      D3A1 Val x 13
 
 
 
Allied aircraft
      B-339D x 2
      F4F-3A Wildcat x 7
      F4F-3 Wildcat x 3
 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
 
Allied aircraft losses
      B-339D: 1 destroyed
 
Allied Ships
      BC Repulse,  on fire
      CL Glasgow
 
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Balikpapan at 65,98
 
Weather in hex: Severe storms
 
Raid detected at 101 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 43 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      B5N2 Kate x 7
 
 
 
Allied aircraft
      B-339D x 1
      F4F-3A Wildcat x 2
      F4F-3 Wildcat x 2
 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      B5N2 Kate: 2 destroyed
 
 
Allied Ships
      BC Repulse,  on fire
 
Morning Air attack on TF, near Balikpapan at 65,100
 
Weather in hex: Clear sky
 
Raid detected at 132 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 49 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M2 Zero x 60
      B5N2 Kate x 72
      D3A1 Val x 84
 
 
 
Allied aircraft
      F2A-3 Buffalo x 11
      F4F-3A Wildcat x 13
      F4F-3 Wildcat x 14
 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M2 Zero: 3 destroyed
      B5N2 Kate: 8 damaged
      B5N2 Kate: 4 destroyed by flak
      D3A1 Val: 1 damaged
 
Allied aircraft losses
      F2A-3 Buffalo: 1 destroyed
      F4F-3A Wildcat: 2 destroyed
      F4F-3 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
 
Allied Ships
      CA New Orleans, Bomb hits 4,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Preston, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      CV Saratoga, Bomb hits 8, Torpedo hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CV Enterprise, Bomb hits 12, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CA San Francisco, Bomb hits 7,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Perkins, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CA Minneapolis, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CA Chester, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
      DD Craven, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
      DD Cushing, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Dunlap
      DD Maury
      DD Smith
      CA Salt Lake City
 
Morning Air attack on TF, near Balikpapan at 65,100
 
Weather in hex: Clear sky
 
Raid detected at 150 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 64 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M2 Zero x 7
      B5N1 Kate x 6
 
 
 
Allied aircraft
      F2A-3 Buffalo x 6
      F4F-3A Wildcat x 7
      F4F-3 Wildcat x 2
 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
      B5N1 Kate: 4 destroyed
 
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Balikpapan at 65,100
 
Weather in hex: Light rain
 
Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 33 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      B5N2 Kate x 9
 
 
 
No Japanese losses
 
Allied Ships
      CV Saratoga, Bomb hits 7,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CA Minneapolis, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Cushing, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
 
Morning Air attack on TF, near Balikpapan at 64,98
 
Weather in hex: Overcast
 
Raid detected at 41 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M2 Zero x 30
 
 
 
Allied aircraft
      75A-7 Hawk x 8
 
 
No Japanese losses
 
Allied aircraft losses
      75A-7 Hawk: 4 destroyed
 
Morning Air attack on TF, near Balikpapan at 64,98
 
Weather in hex: Overcast
 
Raid detected at 132 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 52 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M2 Zero x 29
 
 
 
Allied aircraft
      F2A-3 Buffalo x 11
      F4F-3 Wildcat x 13
      SBD-2 Dauntless x 18
      SBD-3 Dauntless x 54
      TBD-1 Devastator x 30
 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
 
Allied aircraft losses
      F2A-3 Buffalo: 4 destroyed
      F4F-3 Wildcat: 3 destroyed
      SBD-2 Dauntless: 1 destroyed
      SBD-3 Dauntless: 3 destroyed, 5 damaged
      SBD-3 Dauntless: 1 destroyed by flak
      TBD-1 Devastator: 2 destroyed, 4 damaged
      TBD-1 Devastator: 2 destroyed by flak
 
Japanese Ships
      CV Soryu, Bomb hits 6,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CV Zuikaku, Bomb hits 4,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CV Kaga, Bomb hits 2,  on fire
      CV Shokaku, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
      BB Kirishima, Bomb hits 4,  on fire
      CV Akagi
      BB Hiei
 
Morning Air attack on TF, near Balikpapan at 64,98
 
Weather in hex: Overcast
 
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 37 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M2 Zero x 17
 
 
 
Allied aircraft
      B-17E Fortress x 4
 
 
No Japanese losses
 
No Allied losses
 
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Balikpapan at 64,98
 
Weather in hex: Light cloud
 
Raid detected at 116 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 46 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M2 Zero x 12
 
 
 
Allied aircraft
      F2A-3 Buffalo x 3
      SBD-2 Dauntless x 15
      SBD-3 Dauntless x 16
 
 
No Japanese losses
 
Allied aircraft losses
      F2A-3 Buffalo: 2 destroyed
      SBD-2 Dauntless: 3 destroyed, 9 damaged
      SBD-3 Dauntless: 6 destroyed, 3 damaged
      SBD-3 Dauntless: 1 destroyed by flak
 
Japanese Ships
      CV Shokaku,  on fire
      CV Akagi
      BB Kirishima
      CV Kaga, Bomb hits 1,  on fire,  heavy damage
 
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Balikpapan at 64,98
 
Weather in hex: Light cloud
 
Raid detected at 138 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 91 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M2 Zero x 7
 
 
 
Allied aircraft
      Swordfish I x 10
 
 
No Japanese losses
 
Allied aircraft losses
      Swordfish I: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged
      Swordfish I: 1 destroyed by flak
 
Japanese Ships
      BB Hiei, Torpedo hits 1
      BB Kirishima
      CV Akagi
 
Morning Air attack on TF, near Donggala at 68,97
 
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
 
Raid detected at 29 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A5M4 Claude x 36
      A6M2 Zero x 17
 
 
 
Allied aircraft
      TBD-1 Devastator x 15
 
 
No Japanese losses
 
Allied aircraft losses
      TBD-1 Devastator: 6 destroyed
 
 

[herwin]

January 10/11 1942

The entirety of the Japanese fleet had shown up for the party, and I had to depart quickly. I lost the Repulse, Lexington, and Saratoga, but I think I did enough damage, especially to the carriers, to slow down the Japanese plan.

Samarinda falls.

[SoliInvictus202]

EDIT: lol - overlooked the first sentence, where it said: DaBigBabes.....thought it was a normal scenario....

[herwin]

January 11/12 1942

The Japanese Fleet mops up. The KB chased the Hermes and not the Enterprise, and it looks like they'll catch it in Batavia. Allied losses about what happened historically, but I have at least two Japanese CVs (Hiryu and Kaga) in drydock and several others with damage. I'm also encouraging my opponent to be cautious.

The Japanese forces in Luzon are trying to take Bataan. They'll probably succeed fairly quickly, but it also shows that the ground combat model is broken in multiple ways (casualty model, battle resolution, tempo). Historically, the force occupying Bataan held out until May 7, 1942. The game is playable despite this, but only because ground combat was the least important of the three types of combat in the war against Japan.

Ground combat at Bataan (78,77)
 
Japanese Deliberate attack
 
Attacking force 84498 troops, 636 guns, 433 vehicles, Assault Value = 2620
 
Defending force 26080 troops, 577 guns, 213 vehicles, Assault Value = 633
 
Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 1272
 
Allied adjusted defense: 1327
 
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 1)
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker:
 
Japanese ground losses:
      2174 casualties reported
         Squads: 13 destroyed, 207 disabled
         Non Combat: 14 destroyed, 96 disabled
         Engineers: 1 destroyed, 49 disabled
      Vehicles lost 41 (9 destroyed, 32 disabled)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      2222 casualties reported
         Squads: 18 destroyed, 101 disabled
         Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 164 disabled
         Engineers: 2 destroyed, 27 disabled
      Guns lost 5 (3 destroyed, 2 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 36 (12 destroyed, 24 disabled)
      Units destroyed 1

[herwin]

January 12/13 1942

More mop-up. A Japanese CVTF hits tanker convoy headed towards Torres Strait.

Kaga fighters are flying out of Samarinda, so she's out of action for a while.

Kates hit Batavia and nearby fields and ran into my fighters. Lost 6.

Defending fighter squadrons with CVTF off Batavia include Akagi, Zuikaku, Ryujo, and Zuiho. That suggests the carrier chasing the Enterprise is the Shokaku, and the others have taken some damage. Unfortunately, the replenishment group for the Enterprise is about two days off.

[herwin]

January 13/14 1942

Submarine attack on the Queen Elizabeth--no hits. She steamed so fast that the chance of an Axis submarine getting into a firing position was on the order of 1%, but I suppose that's a bit hard to model.

The TF escorting the Kaga (and perhaps some other carriers) is making five hexes a turn. Every Allied submarine in that part of the Pacific is headed in that direction.

Hermes sunk in the dock at Batavia.

Invasion of Balikpapan. Holding Samarinda means that an over-the-beach  invasion was both unwise and unnecessary, but we shall see...

This is so absurd I can hardly believe it--Bataan falls four months early.

Japanese Deliberate attack
 
Attacking force 82246 troops, 636 guns, 421 vehicles, Assault Value = 2536
 
Defending force 24236 troops, 573 guns, 204 vehicles, Assault Value = 540
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 1375
 
Allied adjusted defense: 405
 
Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 1)
 
Japanese forces CAPTURE Bataan !!!
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:
 
Japanese ground losses:
      2240 casualties reported
         Squads: 3 destroyed, 168 disabled
         Non Combat: 13 destroyed, 128 disabled
         Engineers: 1 destroyed, 39 disabled
      Vehicles lost 55 (8 destroyed, 47 disabled)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      30953 casualties reported
         Squads: 852 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 1447 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 164 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Guns lost 704 (704 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 244 (244 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Units destroyed 25

There's something strange about my supply usage at Bataan. I'll investigate and report back.

[herwin]

The Allied force in the Bataan position was approximately an American division-slice (27,000 troops), both historically and in this game. I used US Army planning factors for my Bataan stocks. Historically, a division slice on the defence used about 200 tons of supplies a day during heavy defensive operations (Staff Officer's Manual).

In the game, this force used 6500 tons of supply plus that already with the units in 15 days. Something is really, really excessive about supply usage in the game.

[herwin]

Moving on...

The game still is playable, but the ground operations bear no resemblence to reality.

[herwin]

I feel better now.

My opponent has a slow-moving TF currently creeping along off Mindanao. I know the Kaga's in there, but my recon keeps suggesting there are four other carriers present. I have every long-range sub in the Pacific moving to investigate it.

[herwin]

January 14/15 1942

Shokaku (and possibly Soryu) continue to chase the Enterprise CVTF near Horn Island. It's probably a bit risky, given that the Enterprise CVTF will be meeting a replenishment convoy shortly. If they insist on closing, we'll see. If they retreat, I may chase them.

Balikpapan falls.

[herwin]

January 15/16 1942

By the way, I was aware Luzon was doomed from the beginning. I just didn't expect it to get blitzkrieged quite that quickly.

The Soryu and Shokaku continue chasing me. I'm seriously thinking about reversing course. However, if I wait a couple of days, the Yorktown will be joining me.

[herwin]

January 16/17 1942

The Soryu and Shokaku decide to escape to Truk. Every sub in the area is moving to their predicted track.

Moulmein occupied. I suspect a netty base will start operating there next turn.

Japan deploys an armoured division in China. My experience is that these kind of forces are unstoppable there. In actuality, they would have been very expensive to maintain, but I doubt the game models the vehicle maintenance costs that would have made their deployment infeasible in reality.

Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 3354 troops, 0 guns, 632 vehicles, Assault Value = 355
 
Defending force 2094 troops, 2 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 73
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 398
 
Allied adjusted defense: 1
 
Japanese assault odds: 398 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: op mode(-), disruption(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      1571 casualties reported
         Squads: 116 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 79 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 3 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Units retreated 1
      Units destroyed 1
 
 
Defeated Allied Units Retreating!
 
Assaulting units:
    15th Tank Regiment
    5th Tank Regiment
    3rd Tank Regiment
    10th Tank Regiment
    12th Tank Regiment
    5th Armored Car Co
    8th Armored Car Co
    23rd Tank Regiment
    9th Tank Regiment
    11th Tank Regiment
 
Defending units:
    15th Chinese Corps
    8th New Chinese/B Corps

[herwin]

January 17/18 1942

Nothing happening.

Forthright exchange of views:

H: Good game though. You sure danced on my head on Luzon. We'll see about Singapore.

B: One of the reasons that I diverged the convoy from their original target (Mersing) was that you were running away from two Infantry RGTs at Malaya.

I have several more a few days behind, but I took the risk of guessing (rightly) that you were going to run away to Singapore when I reached Kuala Lumpur.

The assault on Singapore will be done when I move the reinforcements to Mersing :=)

B: Before I have to cover the Rabaul Invasion. It was 50% chase and 50% covering operation. I had delayed the Rabaul assault until I have spotted your carriers or after I had finished Borneo.

I thought that you were bound for Darwin, THEN I had returned with Shok and Soryu arriving east AND KB moving west.

I fished a CA plus Rabaul, so I`m happy with the result/risk taken.

H: In this game, no garrison can hold any position unless the owning side has air/sea superiority. If it does, the garrison can be nominal. Generally, my garrisons are base forces for that reason, and I’m not throwing good money after bad. As soon as you could demonstrate air/sea superiority at Rabaul, you would have the base.

B: Yes, but the last time that I spotted your carriers (before the strike at Balikpapan) were going to Noumea, so I had to assume that they were in striking distance of Rabaul, instead crossing the Torres Strait and gong north.

H: It looks like you may have a very short window of opportunity...

The Yorktown has nearly joined up with the Enterprise at Noumea and they both have full airgroups. My losses so far are accelerated but not out of line with WWII to April 1942. In return, I've damaged four CVs, two seriously, and two CVLs. My opponent likes to use the KB to support his ground operations, and I think they're slowed--despite Luzon falling quickly. I still hold Singapore, the south coast of Borneo, and most of the Philippines other than Davao. The Eastern Fleet is a fleet in being with a CVTF and four SAGs, while the force in the Coral Sea is in a position to deter operations in the Solomons and Eastern New Guinea.

[herwin]

January 18/19 1942

Not a great happened except for the usual battles in China which were resolved in a way that strains my credulity. (I recently found my 30-year-old notes on battle termination statistics and ground combat casualty statistics. I'll reread them and post comments here.)

The rump KB (Soryu and Shokaku) is hanging out at Rabaul. The Enterprise and Yorktown CVTFs are headed in that direction, supported by an Australian SAG. The Japanese screen consists of just destroyers and the Kirishima, so a surface engagement is likely to be unpleasant for the Japanese. I have Banshees at Rabaul and Port Moresby.

[herwin]

January 19/20 1942

Rabaul captured.

[herwin]

January 20/21 1942

Now we see how quickly he can get torpedo workshops operational on Rabaul.

The fictive ground combat model awards Loyang and Tsiaotso to the Japanese. It doesn't make the game unplayable, but it does contribute an element of unreality.

[herwin]

January 21/22 1942

Carrier aircraft now operating near Truk.

[herwin]

January 22/23 1942

Japanese armoured division overruns a Chinese corps.

Ground combat at 86,47 (near Sinyang)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 15839 troops, 104 guns, 636 vehicles, Assault Value = 751
 
Defending force 24760 troops, 131 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 556
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 1240
 
Allied adjusted defense: 70
 
Japanese assault odds: 17 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      40 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 9 destroyed, 96 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
      Vehicles lost 119 (6 destroyed, 113 disabled)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      15115 casualties reported
         Squads: 382 destroyed, 134 disabled
         Non Combat: 362 destroyed, 140 disabled
         Engineers: 25 destroyed, 34 disabled
      Guns lost 4 (4 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Units retreated 6
 
 
Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Let me be explicit about my criticism of ground combat in WitP-AE. The casualty results being reported about 85-90% of the time are in a region not seen in the pre-1970 historical data. A plausible explanation is that the game engine models LCU casualty causation as mostly a firepower exchange, much like it models naval surface engagements, so producing Lanchester Square Law dynamics. That runs up against papers in the OR literature showing that WWII ground combat casualty dynamics were a compromise between area fire (exponent=1) and aimed fire (exponent=2) and also against other data showing that actual casualty causation was a small fraction of that predicted by proving ground data.

During the period 1970-1990, there was a sea-change in ground combat with the rate limiting step in the application of firepower shifting from target acquisition to target engagement--proving ground data suddenly became more valid. This caught a lot of older analysts and officers by surprise during the first Iraqi war. A friend working in intelligence described it as hard reset of everyone's calibrations, particularly in the Warsaw Pact. It certainly came as a surprise to me, despite my playing a role in the developments that led to the change. The game engine appears to reflect a post -1970 perspective on ground combat (and other some areas) that produces results out of line with WWII history. I accept that the mechanisms in the game engine might be plausible for serving officers, but it produces implausible results for WWII. The proof of the pudding is in the eating.

There's a serious issue here that has nothing to do with the game. If the rate-limiting step returns to target acquisition--I can envision a number of ways that could happen--current tactics will immediately become obsolete. Military technology evolves on a time-scale of 20-40 years, so we're about due for the next revolution in military affairs.

[herwin]

January 23/24 1942

The usual fictive battles in China. A Japanese corps hit a half-strength Chinese corps and ended up with assault odds of 445-1. Casualties were seriously out of line with reality, too. I beg your pardon???

I probed the Japanese force at Johore Bahru and discovered an army present. Since I have two divisions in Singapore, I expect the campaign to take the city to be a one-day shock attack with the Japanese taking perhaps 1000 casualties.

There's absolutely nothing you can do to extend it longer than that if the attacker decides to bring enough to the party. Historically, of course, the British surrendered because their water supplies had been captured, but if they had fought in Singapore, the Japanese would have lost about a corps taking the place based on experience in Europe. It wouldn't have made much difference for the civilians as the Japanese then massacred about 100,000 ethnic Chinese after the surrender.

[herwin]

January 24/25 1942

Not a great deal happened.