'Tis light as a feather... No Panzerjaeger Hortlund

[Alfred]

If that strike package delivers, I rather suspect we might hear some very uncomplimentary language from your opponent.

Alfred

[FatR]

Boforses have ceiling of 9800. Divebombers/torpedobombers cannot fly over their ceiling without dropping into dive/glide.

[Nemo121]

Alfred,

It won't fully deliver but I think that what PH has invading and covering the invasion is as follows:
1. Several LCIs and other types of landing craft +
2. ONE SC TF centred around a couple of CA and with 6 to 8 DD.

In total I'd expect about 30 Landing Craft of various types and no more than 10 warships.


I will be happy if even half of my planes fly... With that said 600 attacking planes ( instead of the 1200 committed ) should still be more than enough to take out 40 ships ( especially when the LCs will be one hit kills ).


FatR,
Oops, I looked in the ship screen in-game and saw a range of 6,000 and mistook that for the ceiling. Ah well, at least I'll avoid the 20mm Oerlikons ( which don't quite reach 6,000 ). Anyways, when you routinely send out 30 planes a day each and every day on kami strikes the prospect of a few FlAK losses isn't too worrisome. Thanks for the info though, it'll change some of my future planning re: altitude settings.

One reason I set so many torpedo-bombers to level bomb was that I am interested in testing out the hit rate of level-bombing torpedo bombers. I read the thread in the main forum with interest and wish to conduct a medium-scale test before I have to fight off the enemy's main invasion. That won't be the time to choose a sub-optimal attack plan so this is a nice, medium-sized testbed to test a few different attack profiles out on.

We'll see, it could all fail disastrously. Such is the randomness of life.

[Nemo121]

Damn, I had a whole post typed and then the damned thing broke.

So now you'll have to make do with a summary.

8 Ki-74s hit an APD, an xAK, a DE and an AKA at Amami Oshima.

100 old, sacrificial P1Ys and G4Ms died in the air around Saishu To as the Allied CAs and CLs roamed off the southern coast of Korea.

49 Oscar kamis hit the ships off Saishu To and managed to get 5 hits on CL Houston II, 3 on CA Quincy II, 4 on CL Astoria II and 1 on DD Blue II.
The Houston had to flood magazines and is very badly damaged. Quincy only has superficial damage while Astoria will need to be put into port but isn't in danger of sinking.

200+ B29s obliterated Marcus - he is clearing his SLOCs while 100 hit the Regiment at Tokara Retto. I am flying in elements of 4 other Regiments to bolster the forces there. I want Tokara Retto to become a quagmire for his shipping.

My best torpedo attack squadron, ironically an IJAAF Ki-67 T unit attacked a CA TF near Fusan and managed to sink the CA Louisville.
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Fusan at 102,55

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 33 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 16
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy x 24



Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy: 7 damaged

Allied Ships
CA Louisville, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
DD Woodworth
DD Lardner

It didn't lose a single plane Experience really is king.


Overall kamis did well, I wasted enough Netties to make their withdrawal from further combat ( until he invades ) believable to PH and my plan to lure him further and further into the Yellow Sea is working nicely. In addition I sank 1 CA, 1 CL, 2 DD and 1 DE. That's not a bad haul for a series of small strikes. PH is, I think, celebrating a big victory in thinking he has destroyed about 300 of my planes.... Well he destroyed 108 or so sacrificial old bombers with 40 Exp pilots ( so no loss there ) and I expended about 75 kamis. I lost an additional 30 planes I didn't wish to lose. Overall though I'm pretty happy but determined to sell him the "300 planes lost for 3 torpedo hits, damn it" line.

In other news 18 Ki94 IIs rolled off the production line today along with a dozen J7W1s. Give me two weeks and I'll be able to defend an invasion hex for 3 days against everything he can throw against me. That will allow me to seriously damage the amphibious TFs which are unloading.

So far that's 1 BB, 3 CVEs, 3 CAs, 2 CLs and about 20 DDs sunk. I've got to admit that given the terrible state of the Japanese air force in this scenario I'm pretty pleased with those results.

[khyberbill]

I believe I can order a sweep

I dont believe you can sweep a base you own, at least I cant, just LRCAP.

[Nemo121]

Ah that explains that, I thought you could. Onto the next day....

The IJN sortied to intercept the retreating Allies but, sadly, there was something wrong with our ships tonight... We got close, crossed the T of several USN and RN TFs but their gunfire was several orders of magnitude more accurate than ours. The IJN DDs suffered heavy losses tonight. Enemy losses were mild. Still, it was the right thing to do, I just got unlucky with the dice rolls.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Fukue-jima at 99,57, Range 4,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Maki
DD Kiri
DD Sugi
DD Kashi
DD Kaede
DD Yanagi
DD Nire, Shell hits 1
DD Tsuta
DD Hagi
DD Kaki
DD Shii
DD Sumire
DD Enoki
DD Kusunoki
DD Odake
DD Hatsuzakura
DD Kaba
DD Yaezakura
DD Tochi
DD Katsura
DD Wakazakura
DD Azura
DD Sakaki
DD Hanako, Shell hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
CL Bermuda, Shell hits 1
CL Newfoundland
DD Quality
DD Quilliam


2nd contact of the night...
Night Time Surface Combat, near Fukue-jima at 99,57, Range 5,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Maki
DD Kiri
DD Sugi
DD Kashi
DD Kaede
DD Yanagi
DD Nire
DD Tsuta
DD Hagi
DD Kaki
DD Shii
DD Sumire
DD Enoki
DD Kusunoki
DD Odake
DD Hatsuzakura
DD Kaba
DD Yaezakura
DD Tochi
DD Katsura
DD Wakazakura
DD Sakaki, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
DE Lovelace, Shell hits 3, on fire
DE Major, Shell hits 1
DE Neuendorf, Shell hits 1
DE Raby, Shell hits 2, on fire
This was an ASW TF stooging around killing my subs.


Remember I said the RN was in play. Well, I ran into them four times tonight with SC TFs. Didn't achieve a damned thing though.
Night Time Surface Combat, near Fukue-jima at 99,57, Range 30,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Sakawa
DD Hanazuki
DD Yoizuki
DD Yukaze
DD Namikaze
DD Kuri
DD Tawa
DD Noyate
DD Suruyate
DD Tadeyate
DD Kiyokaze

Allied Ships
CV Formidable
CV Implacable
CVL Vengeance
CVL Glory
CVL Unicorn
CVL Pioneer
BB Anson
BB Duke of York
CL Achilles
CL Swiftsure
CLAA Argonaut
CLAA Euryalus
DD Napier
DD Nizam
DD Norman
DD Queensborough
DD Teazer
DD Tenacious
DD Wager


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Fukue-jima at 99,57, Range 7,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Maki
DD Kiri, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
DD Sugi
DD Kashi, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Kaede
DD Yanagi
DD Nire
DD Tsuta
DD Hagi, Shell hits 1
DD Kaki
DD Shii
DD Sumire
DD Enoki
DD Kusunoki
DD Odake
DD Hatsuzakura
DD Kaba, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Yaezakura
DD Tochi
DD Katsura
DD Wakazakura
DD Sakaki, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
CL Bermuda
CL Newfoundland
DD Quality
DD Quilliam

Sub attack near Fukue-jima at 100,57

Japanese Ships
SS I-162, hits 2, on fire

Allied Ships
CV Formidable, Torpedo hits 1
BB Duke of York
CLAA Argonaut
DD Norman
DD Wager
DD Tenacious
DD Teazer


SS I-162 launches 4 torpedoes at CV FormidableI-162 diving deep ....
Excellent. One torpedo won't do much harm to this CV but even if it forces her into port for a month that helps.


Day Time Surface Combat, near Fukue-jima at 100,57, Range 30,000 Yards

A daytime intercept of a CV TF and my ships didn't even try to open fire. At one stage range was down to 8,000 yards.

Japanese Ships
DD Maki
DD Sugi
DD Kaede
DD Yanagi
DD Nire
DD Tsuta
DD Hagi
DD Kaki
DD Shii
DD Sumire
DD Enoki
DD Kusunoki
DD Odake
DD Hatsuzakura
DD Yaezakura
DD Tochi
DD Katsura
DD Sakaki

Allied Ships
CV Formidable
CV Implacable
CVL Vengeance
CVL Glory
CVL Unicorn
CVL Pioneer
BB Anson
BB Duke of York
CL Achilles
CL Swiftsure
CLAA Argonaut
CLAA Euryalus
DD Napier
DD Nizam
DD Norman
DD Queensborough
DD Teazer
DD Tenacious
DD Wager


Day Time Surface Combat, near Fukue-jima at 99,58, Range 8,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Takao, Shell hits 15, heavy fires
DD Susuzuki
DD Fuyuzuki, Shell hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Natsuzuki
DD Yukikaze
DD Hibiki
DD Ushio
DD Kamikaze, Shell hits 1, heavy fires
DD Harukaze, Shell hits 1
DD Kawagiri, Shell hits 9, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Murakaze, Shell hits 4, on fire

Allied Ships
CL Bermuda, Shell hits 4, on fire
CL Newfoundland, Shell hits 7, on fire
DD Quality, Shell hits 5, on fire
DD Quilliam, Shell hits 8, heavy fires

CA Takao and those 4 DDs are in trouble. The RN CVs did wonderfully well.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Fukue-jima at 99,58, Range 6,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Natsuzuki, Shell hits 5, heavy fires

Allied Ships
CV Victorious
CV Indomitable
CV Indefatigable, Shell hits 1
CVL Colossus
CVL Venerable
BB Howe
BB King George V
CLAA Phoebe
CLAA Black Prince
DD Quadrant
DD Termagant
DD Terpsichore
DD Troubridge
DD Tumult
DD Tuscan
DD Tyrian
DD Grenville
DD Ulster
DD Ulysses
DD Undaunted
DD Undine
DD Urania
DD Ursa
DD Kempenfelt

Ah, The rest of the RN.


Kami Time !!!!
Morning Air attack on TF, near Fukue-jima at 98,58

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 200 NM, estimated altitude 39,450 feet.
Estimated time to target is 75 minutes

Japanese aircraft
D3A2 Val x 9



Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 2
Corsair IV x 8
Seafire IIC x 1
Seafire L.III x 6
Seafire F.XV x 6
F6F-5 Hellcat x 2


Japanese aircraft losses
D3A2 Val: 5 destroyed


Allied Ships
CL Newfoundland, Kamikaze hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CL Bermuda, on fire
DD Quilliam, heavy fires

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x D3A2 Val flying as kamikaze
Kamikaze: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb


Morning Air attack on TF, near Fukue-jima at 99,57

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 29 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-100-II Tony x 1
Ki-115a Tsurugi x 12



Allied aircraft
Hellcat F.II x 1
Seafire F.XV x 1
F4U-1D Corsair x 8
F6F-5 Hellcat x 18


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-115a Tsurugi: 7 destroyed

Even minimal CAP always shoots down the Tsurugis. They just don't have the chops to break through CAP like the Oscars or Patsys.


An Allied counter-attack.
Morning Air attack on TF, near Fukue-jima at 99,57

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 36 minutes


Allied aircraft
Hellcat F.II x 1
F4U-1D Corsair x 5
F6F-5 Hellcat x 13
F8F-1 Bearcat x 12
TBM-1C Avenger x 6


Allied aircraft losses
TBM-1C Avenger: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
DD Wakazakura, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk



Next an Allied sweep went in against Shimonoseki.

Over the course of the day 242 USN fighters went in vs 83 Japanese fighters.

In total I downed about 80 of them at a cost of about 25 fighters. Mainly the Hellcats were downed with roughly 70 falling to my fighters' guns. It would appear that the Hellcat is outclassed by this time of the war when fighting Japanese second-line planes with good pilots. God help them vs the J7W1 or Ki-94 II.


Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Fukue-jima at 97,59

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 200 NM, estimated altitude 30,625 feet.
Estimated time to target is 41 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G9 Marlin x 4



Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 20
F6F-5 Hellcat x 94


Japanese aircraft losses
G9 Marlin: 2 destroyed, 1 damaged

Allied Ships
CV Lake Champlain

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x G9 Marlin launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 4 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo

Well, they got through the CAP and made their attacks. They were too disrupted to hit but at least they broke through.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Fukue-jima at 99,59

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 200 NM, estimated altitude 32,625 feet.
Estimated time to target is 41 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G9 Marlin x 3



Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 7
Corsair IV x 23
Hellcat F.II x 4
Seafire F.XV x 20


Japanese aircraft losses
G9 Marlin: 3 damaged


Allied Ships
CVL Vengeance

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x G9 Marlin launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 4 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo


More kamis in the afternoon.
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Saishu To at 98,56

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 200 NM, estimated altitude 38,400 feet.
Estimated time to target is 50 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 3



Allied aircraft
F4U-1A Corsair x 15
F4U-1D Corsair x 23
F4U-4 Corsair x 7
F6F-5 Hellcat x 64


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 2 destroyed


Allied Ships
BB Maryland, Kamikaze hits 1
CL Raleigh, Kamikaze hits 1


Ground combat at Tokara Retto (100,62)

I've been flying reinforcements in and hope to actually be able to hold here.

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 4039 troops, 12 guns, 33 vehicles, Assault Value = 110

Defending force 4745 troops, 68 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 171

Allied adjusted assault: 29

Japanese adjusted defense: 89

Allied assault odds: 1 to 3 (fort level 2)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: leaders(+), fatigue(-)

Japanese ground losses:
192 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled


Allied ground losses:
545 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 32 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 24 disabled


Assaulting units:
Eighth Army Combat Engineer Regiment

Defending units:
4th Raiding Rgt /1
91st Ind.Mixed Bde /1
57th Ind.Mixed Bde /1
21st Ind.Mixed Regiment
25th Ind.Mixed Rgt /1
58th Infantry Bde /1
1st Raiding Force /1


Overall it looks like a couple of DDs and an RN CL went down today. I lost 3 DDs.

In the meantime I built 20 more KI-94 IIs today so had 36 in the pool and was able to upgrade my 2nd fighter unit. It looks like it will take about 2 weeks for all the planes to be fully repaired but that's fine, they'll just be flying CAP over Tokyo for the next fortnight anyway. I won't show them until something decisive is happening. Throw in the 12 J7W1s and with roughly 100 first-line fighters every 3 days ( and a similar number of 2nd-line fighters I think the aerial war is going to stabilise in about a month's time.

[khyberbill]

Ah that explains that, I thought you could. Onto the next day....

sorry to have kamikazied onto your parade! The logic of why it is not
permitted escapes me.

[Nemo121]

10th October:

Well, there's no way I can explain my strategy any farther without outlining my strategic assessment. I don't like doing this because of the info leak earlier but if I don't many of my decisions will seem somewhat deranged so I think I have to.

Ever since the info leak I assumed that PH would figure out some of the realities which must underly the questions being asked in his AAR. He's a sharp cookie and if the person who told me of their concerns could figure it out then PH probably could too. So, I had to assume that he knew about the whole "I think he's going for the Kuriles" plan.

So, I assumed he was going to switch the axis of his attack. Hokkaido was too close to the Kuriles to be viable. Tokyo's plans is just too open to containment. That left Kyushu, Korea and China. Of those China gains him nothing Okinawa hasn't gained him and Kyushu still allows him to get swamped. The logical choice then was Korea.

For the past month I have been flooding Korea with troops. I think I've added at least 10 additional divisions, thousands of engineers, many Shinyo CD gun units, dozens of AAA units and about 70 or 80 artillery units. I also have deployed my entire tank force as a central reserve in Korea ( this comprises about 1500 AV ). Every week another 2 divisions are brought in from China by ship and air ( this in spite of the fact that about a dozen CVs are operating in the Yellow Sea ). Pretty much every base has Level 4 fortifications and in two weeks they should be Level 5. Korea is swimming in supplies which I've stolen from the Japanese mainland and I am on my way to make Keijo and one other inland airbase in Korea Level 9 airfields ( with unlimited stacking for planes ). I have also deployed the bulk of my Ohka units to this area and have deployed my single and twin-engined torpedo and dive-bombers such that they can reach Korea within a day.

Basically Korea is one huge trap just waiting to be sprung. I have also assembled a reserve force in Japan comprising ten divisions and the shipping to move it en masse. This should enable me to unload these 10 divisions within about two weeks of the invasion being confirmed. Added to the 20 divisions already in Korea this force should have no problem stopping any Allied invasion dead in its tracks through sheer weight of numbers.


So, the aerial fight over western Japan was crucial because it was PH trying to clear his SLOCs on the way into Korea and breaking my fighter force under the guise of pursuing a heavy bomber offensive. Sure he wanted to break the fighters anyways but the REAL reason he wants me to abandon Nagasaki and Western Japan was so that I wouldn't threaten his SLOCs. I couldn't, of course, simple accede to that as that would have looked too suspicious so I've burnt about a thousand fighters over the past 10 days ( only about half of them second-line, the rest were very definitely third-line and had poor pilots ) to put up a sufficient show of resistance that he'll believe he has cleared the SLOCs through his efforts in spite of my resistance.

This will, IMO, show him what he wants to see an ensure he commits his forces to this invasion --- which is what I want as then I can counter-concentrate and pin him, forcing him to send amphibious ships into harms way again and again with supplies and reinforcements etc --- this then allows me to target those ships with wave after wave of kamikazes, attritting them effectively and efficiently.

I've also gathered an air-mobile reserve of 1,000 AV worth of troops which I will airlift in to whichever hex he invades to help it hold out while my operational reserves race to the area and the strategic reserve loads onto ships and makes the journey to Korea.

Obviously if he lands in Japan instead then I'll just reverse the flow of troops. There's a bit of leeway in the plan. He has been a little sloppy recently by:
a) mounting such huge and indicative operations into the Yellow Sea and
b) basing 500 or so ships at Naha. I have pretended not to see them but now I think I'll launch a few Ki-264 night-time raids on the port to begin damaging a few ships and reducing his sealift a few % before he sails.


Anyways, today saw a massive series of sweeps with abotu 400 P-51 H and another 100+ P-47N hitting Nagasaki etc. My fighters resisted well but were worn down by sheer numbers and the fact that many were still in second-line planes. Losses were high on both sides with 71 P-51H and 19 P-47N and about 170 IJN fighters downed. Fortunately, for me, only 13 of my losses were J7W1s while the majority of the rest were Ki-61s which are definitely third rate. I lost about 80 second-line planes, 80 third-line plane and only 13 first-line planes.

This is, actually, very encouraging for me as it promises a 1:1 exchange rate vs P-51Hs when I upgrade everyone to first-line fighters ( J7W1 and Ki-94 II ). I can sustain that as he only gets 200 P-51H per month.

In other news my kamis delivered a series of deadly blows to a Landing Craft TF bringing elements of a US Army Division to Tokarra Reto. I'll append the CR below....

Morning Air attack on TF, near Tokara Retto at 100,62

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 28 NM, estimated altitude 43,400 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 18



Allied aircraft
P-40N26 Warhawk x 18
F4U-1A Corsair x 12
F4U-4 Corsair x 8


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 9 destroyed


Allied Ships
LCT-363, Kamikaze hits 1, and is sunk
LCT-166, Kamikaze hits 1, and is sunk
LCM 544A
LCS(L)-26
LCM 544D
LCT-165, Kamikaze hits 1, and is sunk
LCT-357
LCT-362, Kamikaze hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-21
LCS(L)-20, Kamikaze hits 1, and is sunk
LCT-354
LCT-161, Kamikaze hits 1, and is sunk


Allied ground losses:
1838 casualties reported
Squads: 67 destroyed, 44 disabled
Non Combat: 48 destroyed, 20 disabled
Engineers: 6 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 12 (12 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 14 (14 destroyed, 0 disabled)

That looks to me like about 111 combat squads and 69 support squads destroyed or damaged. 111 Combat Infantry Squads is about 1/3rd of the combat power of a US Rifle Division. Not a bad intervention at all by my kamis. I'm particularly pleased to note how easily they can hit the LCTs, the lack of FlAK really helps them hugely.



Near Okinawa some China-based Ki-74s attacked a small ASW TF off Okinawa and sank the AM Whippoorwill.
Morning Air attack on TF, near Hengchun at 84,67

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 22 NM, estimated altitude 41,370 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-74-I Patsy x 6



Allied aircraft
Spitfire F.XIV x 8


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-74-I Patsy: 3 destroyed


Allied Ships
AM Whippoorwill, Kamikaze hits 1, and is sunk
YMS-218
YMS-219



Tokyo-based Ki-74s then made for Tokara Retto and sank a few more LCTs and LCS(L)... What the hell is an LCS(L) anyways? They don't seem to carry many troops according to the loss reports from this engagement.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Tokara Retto at 100,62

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 49 NM, estimated altitude 42,370 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-74-I Patsy x 9



Allied aircraft
P-40N26 Warhawk x 18
F4U-1A Corsair x 10
F4U-4 Corsair x 7


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-74-I Patsy: 5 destroyed


Allied Ships
LCS(L)-25, Kamikaze hits 1, and is sunk
LCT-357
LCS(L)-21
LCT-355, Kamikaze hits 1, and is sunk
LCT-168, Kamikaze hits 1, and is sunk
LCS(L)-26, Kamikaze hits 1, and is sunk
LCT-354, Kamikaze hits 1, and is sunk
LCM 544E


Allied ground losses:
252 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 9 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 18 (14 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Vehicles lost 8 (8 destroyed, 0 disabled)


The difference in effectiveness between raw pilots and the guys who have graduated my kamikaze training programme is huge and noticeable.... The last Oscar strike and the Ki-74 units were made by pilots who had graduated the training programme ( >50 Low Naval Skill ).


Later in the day 2 Ki-74s attacked a TF off Naha ( near Okinawa ) and managed to hit the BB Alabama despite a CAP of over 168 planes. To be fair they flew higher than most and were spotted VERY late ( only 11 minutes from hitting the CVs ). Given their height most planes on CAP would have difficulty even climbing to their height if they were right underneath them nevermind climbing to their height AND making an interception course.

Obviously though the 500 Kg bomb just bounced off the deck. No damage was done.


At the end of the day it all got a bit clearer:
PH must have split the 24th US Rifle Division into its 3 component parts and tried to land one of those components. The AV at the end of yesterday was about 100. Today at the beginning of the attack it was about 129. So out of the 130 or so AV I would have expected that 1/3rd Division to have it only managed to bring about 30 AV ashore and into combat. I think that this 1/3rd of the division is probably pretty combat ineffective by now.

Ground combat at Tokara Retto (100,62)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 1635 troops, 27 guns, 12 vehicles, Assault Value = 129

Defending force 5621 troops, 80 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 203

Allied adjusted assault: 11

Japanese adjusted defense: 261

Allied assault odds: 1 to 23 (fort level 2)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
14 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Allied ground losses:
552 casualties reported
Squads: 15 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 39 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled


Assaulting units:
Eighth Army Combat Engineer Regiment
24th Infantry/B Division

Between them the 8th Army Combat Engineer Regiment ( about 250 AV ) and the B component of 24th Rifle Division ( about 130 AV minimum ) should be able to project about 380 AV. Instead the project just 1/3rd of that. I think they've been hit very hard indeed during the landings and combat. MY AV has pretty much doubled. The initial regiment is down to 49% readiness ( out of 98% of troops surviving ) but I now have about 140 AV from 5 different regiments on the island and that will rise significantly over time.

Unless he lands another 2+ Divisions I'm feeling quite confident that I can hold. I am now viewing this as a testbed for Korea in terms of stalling an invasion and seeing what he does to break the deadlock. If I can learn what he'll do here I can anticipate it better when he does invade Korea and extract a greater toll from his landing forces.

I won't push him off the beach or anything like that but that isn't my goal. I just want to pin him in place and get easy access to the forces he must commit to reinforce, resupply or withdraw the pinned forces.

In reality I think a failed invasion with massive casualties could have forced a less than unconditional peace. In-game he'll simply sit back and try bombing the HI even more .

Defending units:
21st Ind.Mixed Regiment
25th Ind.Mixed Rgt /1
58th Infantry Bde /1
57th Ind.Mixed Bde /1
91st Ind.Mixed Bde /1
4th Raiding Rgt /1
1st Raiding Force /1


BTW I would ask that people refrain from asking questions of PH which make it obvious what I'm planning. I'm sure he must be discussing his invasion plans etc and I'm happy for that to happen and people to ask questions etc but do bear in mind that if you ask something leading he is sharp enough to figure out the context in which that was asked. I don't want to have to call time on this game as it is getting rather enjoyable.

[modrow]

Nemo,

Generally, I think it is always a pity if undesired third party information leaking influences the course of a game with mutual AARs and that this is something that everyone who reads both sides should make sure does not happen.
However, in this case I am not sure whether even a second instance of loose lips would constitute a reason to cull the game or whether it may even be beneficial to you as a consequence of your communication strategy in this AAR. As you will see below, I tend to assume the last of the above options may be correct.

If I understand your analysis correctly and assume that it is complete, you have identified the reasonably viable strategic axes of advance for the Allied and established that two of these (Aleutians/Hokkaido and Korea) seem to be preferable over a number of inferior approaches.

The first leak caused your opponent to change his strategy away from one of the preferable axes (actually more or less to the opposite direction). I think changing back is not really an option for him (order-counterorder-disorder plus any headstart for you due to measures you started back then should increase in view of your shorter interior lines).

Would that not mean that a second leak would either lead to an advance on a strategically inferior axis (if the leak causes another shift of strategy), which is good for you, or a continuation along this axis tying up more assets, spending more time and expecting a trap at each turn of the road, which is also good for you ?

On top of that, a second leak would illustrate that you have outwitted your opponent twice. You know the man much better than we do, but my impression is that frequently „sharp cookies“ tend to be affected by such a fact. I would expect that his OODA cycle would be affected negatively by that.

Just my thoughts, as usual I may be wrong.

Hartwig

[Nemo121]

Hartwig,

I don't see anything wrong with your assessment. I'm not threatening to quit or anything. It is just that I know a second "leak" ( although it wasn't really a leak just, from what i understand, questions which pointed to an underlying issue which I think PH would discern. I do think he is quite a sharp cookie with a well-developed self-awareness which I think makes him dangerous ) would leave me not really enjoying the game in its current format --- as a game which is AARed. So I would cease AARing it and my other game(s).

It was bad enough that forumites were, en masse, so uncouth and rude as to ignore repeated pleas to start a new thread to discuss their tangential discussions in the BUFFs thread in the war room ( I really found that terribly ill-mannered and rude behaviour. It makes you wonder about the quality of their characters, it really does.... ) but to breach FOW twice in a single AAR when specifically asked not to do so is not just poor manners but also something which could be repeated again and again in this and other of my AARs. I would also question whther or not it was intentional.... So while I can just about explain the BUFFs posters as ill-mannered and uncouth and thoughtless but breaching FOW twice? Well, why AAR the game then? Instead I could just play the game and remove the possibility of further breaches which would destroy my enjoyment by not AARing.

More enjoyment and less time wasted on people who can't observe the most basic of netiquette. Sounds like a win/win situation to me.


As to turning it to my advantage. It could be done of course but, really, I'd rather not play both my opponent and the biggest and biggest-mouthed idiots on the forum combined. Operations consist of accepting and declining battle in pursuit of a goal. Sometimes in life one must follow the same approach. E.g. After the rudeness, thoughtlesness and general disinterest shown by most posters in a reasoned, circumscribed discussion of the BUFFs thread I've decided to take a break from game discussion etc outside of this and a couple of AARs. In essence I'm declining the discussions which are pointless.

Same thing with the AAR. If it is used to destroy my enjoyment of the game then I'll decline to engage in it. I enjoy the AAR so I do it but if that changes there are other things I can do with that time I'll enjoy more. That seems, to me, eminently rational.

[Nemo121]

October 12th 1945.

Today was a pretty good day for Japan with a number of naval engagements going my way. I reasoned that the Allies would have to reinforce Tokara Retto and it looks like I was right. They seem to have been landing supplies but I think I managed to prevent most of the supplies being loaded.

A few MTBs went in first but, for some reason, they chose to try to flee the helpless LCMs, LCVPs etc. Fortunately I had sent in my single CL and it had a much better night...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Tokara Retto at 100,62, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Sakawa
DD Hanazuki
DD Yoizuki
DD Yukaze
DD Namikaze, Shell hits 2
DD Kuri
DD Tawa
DD Noyate
DD Suruyate, Shell hits 3
DD Tadeyate, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Kiyokaze

Allied Ships
DD McCook, Shell hits 9, on fire
DD Benson
xAK Augustin Stahl, Shell hits 2
xAK B. F. Shaw, Shell hits 9, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 7 (2 destroyed, 5 disabled)

I really was hoping to sink all of the ships but I'll take the xAK if that's all that is going. It seems the kamis drove the covering CA TF away.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Tokara Retto at 100,62, Range 5,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Sakawa
DD Hanazuki
DD Yoizuki
DD Yukaze
DD Namikaze
DD Kuri
DD Tawa
DD Noyate
DD Suruyate
DD Tadeyate, on fire
DD Kiyokaze

Allied Ships
LCS(L)-21, Shell hits 11, and is sunk
LCT-160, Shell hits 1
LCT-164, Shell hits 7, and is sunk
LCT-167, Shell hits 18, and is sunk
LCT-169, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
LCT-352, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
LCT-353, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
LCT-356, Shell hits 1
LCT-357, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LCT-358
LCT-359, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
LCT-360, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
LCT-361, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
LCM 544A, Shell hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
LCM 544B, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LCM 544C, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LCM 544D
LCM 544E, Shell hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
LCVP 544F, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LCVP 544G, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LCVP 544H, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LCVP 544J, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
LCVP 544K, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LCVP 544M
LCVP 544N, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LCVP 544P
LCVP 544Q, Shell hits 2, and is sunk

They ran into the survivors later and sank all of them...

Allied Ships
LCT-160, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LCT-356, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LCT-358, Shell hits 4, and is sunk
LCM 544A, and is sunk
LCM 544D, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
LCM 544E, and is sunk
LCVP 544M, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LCVP 544P, Shell hits 1, and is sunk

These landing craft weren't carrying troops but they were unloading ( or possible loading ) so I am assuming that the Allies were either trying to bring in supplies or were trying to evacuate the beachhead. I doubt that PH would pull back so easily so I think they must have been bringing supplies in.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Naha , at 95,66

Well THIS little raid proved very interesting. My normal bombing raids on Nago finally hit Naha as I saw about 480 ships there last turn. I hit FOUR CVEs. I won't sink any but this should put them out of action for the next month. Excellent news.

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Japanese aircraft
Ki-264 Angel x 3


Allied aircraft
P-61C Black Widow x 8


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-264 Angel: 3 damaged


Allied Ships
CVE Kwajalein, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CVE Suwannee, Bomb hits 1
CVE Cape Esperance, Bomb hits 1
CVE Shipley Bay, Bomb hits 1

Given these results tomorrow I've ordered some 200 army level bombers and about 150 or so IJNAF single-engined torpedo bombers in the level bombing role to attack Naha. Most will turn back once they run into enemy CAP BUT even a few getting through and hitting a couple more CVEs will be helpful.


Now onto the kamis:

1. Two initial raids were intercepted and all 10 kamis shot down.

2. Morning Air attack on TF, near Fukue-jima at 97,59

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 200 NM, estimated altitude 40,400 feet.
Estimated time to target is 50 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 6

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 22
F6F-5 Hellcat x 74

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 3 destroyed


Allied Ships
PF Pocatello, Kamikaze hits 2, and is sunk
PF Everett, Kamikaze hits 2, and is sunk
PF Brownsville, Kamikaze hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x Ki-43-IIIa Oscar flying as kamikaze
Kamikaze: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Another two Allied ships sunk. They might be tiny but these ships are real sub-killers so I'm happy to sink them.


3. Morning Air attack on TF, near Fukue-jima at 99,57

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 41,400 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 20

6 were shot down by CAP but 14 got through. They were, unfortunately, quite disrupted by the CAP so achieved little.


Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 11
F6F-5 Hellcat x 12


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 6 destroyed


Allied Ships
CL Raleigh
CL Richmond, Kamikaze hits 1
DD Mugford
DD Ralph Talbot


4. 3 x Ki-74s attacked 2 USN BBs but all crashed into the ocean. Later 3 A6M2-Ks were shot down attacking another TF.


5. Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Saishu To at 98,57

A much better attack on what appears to be another ASW TF. He is definitely trying to force my subs away from his SLOC to Saishu To/Korea.

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 37,400 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 16

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 12
F6F-5 Hellcat x 8

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 5 destroyed


Allied Ships
DE Thomason, Kamikaze hits 1, heavy damage
DE French, Kamikaze hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DE Spangler, Kamikaze hits 1
DE Formoe, Kamikaze hits 1

Well, this ASW TF is out of action. I'd say French and Thomason will sink while the other two should require a good bit of time in the repair yards.


6. Another 8 Oscars hit a more heavily defended ASW TF and this time all but 1 were shot down before breaking through the CAP. The remaining Oscar missed.


7.
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Fukue-jima at 99,57

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 37,400 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 8



Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 3
F6F-5 Hellcat x 19


Allied Ships
CL Raleigh, Kamikaze hits 2
CL Richmond, Kamikaze hits 3, on fire

Hmm, all of these hits are shown as penetrating but I'm just not sure... I think if they really did penetrate then these two CLs would have suffered more damage.


Lastly but not leastly 6 B-25s find the CL Sakawa making its way home near Nagasaki and put two bombs into her. She isn't too badly damaged though and should return to action within a fortnight.


In terms of ground combat.... Amchitka Island fell to the Allies. A pity but expected. Tokara Retto is turning out very nicely though...

Ground combat at Tokara Retto (100,62)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 1273 troops, 27 guns, 12 vehicles, Assault Value = 98

Defending force 7110 troops, 91 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 270

Allied adjusted assault: 1

Japanese adjusted defense: 133

Allied assault odds: 1 to 133 (fort level 2)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-)


Allied ground losses:
313 casualties reported
Squads: 28 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 21 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

The key here is that the two Allied units were sufficiently damaged that:
a) they didn't generate much AV at all.
b) they were very disrupted prior to combat beginning and
c) their casualties were destroyed squads, not just damaged.

Tomorrow I am launching my first attack at Tokara Retto. The goal is to wreck these two Allied forces and lure the Allies in to rescuing them ( at which time I'll send more kamis in yet again and kill more of the shipping; my true goal. )

Assaulting units:
Eighth Army Combat Engineer Regiment
24th Infantry/B Division

Defending units:
21st Ind.Mixed Regiment
57th Ind.Mixed Bde /1
91st Ind.Mixed Bde /1
58th Infantry Bde /1
25th Ind.Mixed Rgt /1
4th Raiding Rgt /1
1st Raiding Force /1

[Nemo121]

Well, the title says it all.

Today PH emailed me to say it was taking him a while to do the turn because of the fact that he is loading his invasion TFs and is suffering from low motivation after ( and this is a kicker )

a READER of this AAR PMed him and stated

that someone has leaked info from my ( PH's ) aar-thread and that you knew exactly where I (PH ) would invade

Given that on the 17th ( just a few posts ago ) I FINALLY broke OpSec on the fact that I was expecting him to invade Korea I can ONLY take this to mean that someone has decided to PM PH to tell him I have prepped my defences of Korea - thus robbing Japan of the benefit of surprise --- one of the few weapons I have available to me to compensate for my material weakness.

So, basically, someone is breaching FOW by reading this AAR and then posting to PH the contents of this AAR.

There is NO blame attached to PH, obviously, as he has no control over precisely which idiot decides to PM him a breach of FOW.

Personally since this occurred via PM I view this as a malicious breach of FOW. It can't be an unintentional mis-speaking within a public AAR. This person chose to make the post secretly so that others wouldn't know his duplicitous nature. Interestingly enough this person also posts an AAR to this AAR forum in the title of which he specifically asks his opponent not to peak. Were I his opponent I wouldn't be at all comfortable that this person wouldn't be peaking into their AAR. Once a cheat and liar always a cheat and liar.... We've ALL said the wrong thing from time to time and I have clicked on opponent's AARs when theirs and mine were side by side ( and immediately clicked out again without reading anything ) but there's a HUGE difference between an inadvertent error and blatantly telling an someone that their opponent has correctly discerned their landing zones a few days after their opponent first states this.

I have to assume now that PH is going for Korea. If this is true then I'm glad I managed to read him right BUT I'm also very annoyed my AND HIS enjoyment of this game has been ruined by this cheat and liar.

I, personally, am in favour of outing this person but PH has asked me not to so I won't. For me the fact that PH trusted me enough to tell me who PMed him means I feel myself bound by his request not to state who this person is. I am, however, going to try to change his mind about this so that he agree to let this person be outed.


Lastly, I am stopping this AAR from this moment onward.

I have stated to PH that I would be happy to do an open, joint AAR as we can no longer trust the forum to respect our wishes ( as seen in the BUFF thread and these two AARs ) as regards OpSec in separate, private AARs. I won't be writing any AAR other than the joint AAR if he agrees to it. I'm only doing two, this game and the game vs 1EyedJacks. Both AARs will now stop unless the situation with respect to this malicious breach of FOW changes. Such breaches remove the enjoyment from doing an AAR and I write AARs to stimulate enjoyable discussions etc. If I wanted my opponent to read them I'd give them access. Unfortunately it is clear that a few bad apples are spoiling things for everyone.

It is a pity really as I think that the Japanese really had a chance to hurt the Allies significantly in the coming landings and possible even force them to fail.


P.s. If PH decides not to continue with the game I will ask permission to check his AAR and see if the person who breached FOW is the same person who made the earlier comments/questions which constituted the first breach of FOW. Knowing whom the person is and knowing that he DID post to PH's AAR makes this pretty likely.

[traskott]

[X(]

Amazing...Well. Good luck with the game.

[SoliInvictus202]

[:(] [X(]

I am really sorry to hear that, and totally understand your decision - apparently some people are out there, who are just interested in ruining the fun of others....

certainly NOT the conduct of a gentleman!

R.

[pat.casey]

Remarkably bad form on somebody's part

[Andy Mac]

Happened to me in a WITP AAR turned out to be bull shit but still left a bad taste in my mouth so I fully understand

[modrow]

Nemo,

sorry to see malevolence at work, forcing you to cull the AARs.

If you want some new fun to compensate for the loss encountered here, unwrap your copy of WitE. It's a nice game.

Hartwig

[PaxMondo]

Sorry to lose this AAR.  A Great Read.  Hope you guys can complete your game at least ....

[pws1225]

I am sorry to learn that this AAR is coming to a close, but it is understandable. Nemo's unconventional approach to the game has been an interesting narrative to follow.

[Canoerebel]

If somebody is intentionally violating OpSec, then the public needs to know his name so that we can tar and feather the lout.

If it's not an intentional thing, we don't need to know his name as he's undoubtedly embarrassed enough.

Good players like Nemo and PH will be very good at reading between the lines, so this is a reminder to us that read and post that even inoccuous statements may provide "aid and comfort" to a player. Simple things like "This is going to be very interesting" (it tells a player that something major is up) or "What are your defenses like in SWPac" (which might suggest to a player that he needs to pay closer attention in that area).

I hate for Nemo and PH to discontinue their AARs as they are very intersting. We don't get many duel AARs from players of their caliber, especially this late in the game. So we are all suffering a loss here. I hope they'll reconsider.

Edited: I wanted to edit to correct "duel" to "dual," but then it occurred to me this was an appropriate play on words.