Grand Campaign Haudrauf (Axis) vs. Miller41 (no Miller41 please)

[Q-Ball]

Haudrauf, you're a good man for being one of the first (if not THE first) Axis AAR to make it to winter. You don't get the experience of seeing what others do to handle it.

That being said, you are probably a cautionary tale for others. Some questioned the wisdom of continuing to attack in the Snow, and it is very obvious now that it was a very serious mistake, one that still hasn't played out in terms of what it will cost you. St. Nicholas was a disaster, IS a disaster. How much better would you be if you spent those 3 turns digging and setting up defenses, keeping those Panzers in reserve? You're probably already asking yourself that.

I don't see alot of fortifications in depth behind your line, and at this point Miller is probably feeling he has a full-on offensive going. While you are extracting your Panzers from the Center, he will likely press very hard on each flank. 2nd Army looks to be in TERRIBLE shape; at least that sector is favorable terrain, but you have almost nobody around Velikye Luki.

In the South, I foresee a general fallback to the Dnepr, which won't give you a whole lot of relief, as it's frozen solid anyway.

Cheer up, going first is always the hardest.

[jay102]

Is this the first multiplayer AAR goes into blizzard? The OP probably has to face more than 7m Russians in 42 summer with a weak weak Wehrmacht. This may be another example indicates the overpowered blizzard penalty especially in multiplayer since Sov player is much more capable to preserve his army in summer from the historical catastrophe and to exploit the winter offensive. I used to test various defensive strategy in AI game, against a weak Red Army of only 3.5m men, and began to dig in 2 turns before mud hits. Even with a conservative strategy like above mentioned, I still got chewed up after 3 or 4 turns of blizzard. There is no way you can avoid a big whole in the line no matter how well you dug in. The real killer is the up to 20% loss of ground elements from every blizzard turn.

[CharonJr]

Yup, just finished turn 29 in my German AAR and the blizzards are hell, I dont even want to think how much worse it must be vs. a human opponent and even more so if he managed to preserve a large part of the Red Army. Even with inflicting 5 million casualties on the Soviets I am hard pressed by the AI.

I have thought about falling back to prepared positions, too. But I feel that more important than the better defensive positions the additional drain on the Soviet line of supply should turn out in the end. And while I still try to prevent too large holes opening in my lines vs. the AI against a human opponent falling back might be the best approach. But even then the Germans would still suffer from low supplies, but if done early enough the better quality of their troops in combination with the Soviets having some difficulties with supplies might do the trick.

IMO the Forrest Gump tactic might be the best for now.

CharonJr

[cookie monster]

I must admit it's not looking good for the Germans. You have no forts to fall back on.

[karonagames]

Is this the first multiplayer AAR goes into blizzard? The OP probably has to face more than 7m Russians in 42 summer with a weak weak Wehrmacht. This may be another example indicates the overpowered blizzard penalty especially in multiplayer since Sov player is much more capable to preserve his army in summer from the historical catastrophe and to exploit the winter offensive. I used to test various defensive strategy in AI game, against a weak Red Army of only 3.5m men, and began to dig in 2 turns before mud hits. Even with a conservative strategy like above mentioned, I still got chewed up after 3 or 4 turns of blizzard. There is no way you can avoid a big whole in the line no matter how well you dug in. The real killer is the up to 20% loss of ground elements from every blizzard turn.

There is an AAR in the development forums of a blizzard test between Trey (El Hefe), and Myself. The results were pretty historical (I was about 300k down on the historical captured number. I captured Leningrad and 1 hex of Moscow and got Rostov via a Paradrop. In general I was able to maintain the line in reasonable shape.

Here is the Moscow front after 8 turns of Blizzard - showing the "linebacker" defence I used. On the basis of this test, changes were made that reduced the blizzard penalties on the Axis. Sorry if this appears to be hijacking the AAR, but I just wanted to show that the Blizzard is not overpowered. In the 6 tests I undertook, the penalties were reduced each time.

edit: I did not build a single fort during this test.

[CarnageINC]

I tried building a 'Maginot line' on from the Black to Baltic Sea using the Dnepr and Dvina rivers during the spring and summer after my first blizzard during my AI game.  I would be cautious of doing so, its a major drain of manpower when you look at the overall situation of how many your going to build.  I cut most of the fortified regions off at 90% manpower and they didn't stop filling out until late summer.  That manpower was very sorely missed come next winter when a lot of my divisions were still under 50%.  In addition, very few fortification made it to lvl 4 fortification, most where still at 2.

Keep in mind that you should be thinking of Soviet deep operations in 44 and 45.  So if you do build a line do it in parts when your manpower needs are not that great, start in late summer or so.  Start at the closest parts of your front line to your 'Maginot Line' and work your way backwards into your territory.

Good luck with the blizzard, thanks for being the first one in a pbem game doing an AAR, hang in there, better weather is not that far off.....well maybe not that close either. [:D]

[CharonJr]

Wouldnt the Germans simply be ground to dust turn after turn?

Sure, they will not lose that much territory, but the number of lost battles each turn must be hell for the manpower in addition to dismissals due to a bad win/loss ratio.

CharonJr

[MrLongleg]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Cheer up, going first is always the hardest.

Well said. I made the decision to play my first campaign against a human and even haven't played the Blizzard against the AI before. You're right about operation Nikolaus - that was a bit too bold. But all this feels historically right, because the Germans made the same mistake with Typhoon - most of their Panzer divisions were down to a few tanks around Christmas 41.

Since I don't have much defenses behind me (except in the northern half) - I can give territory and hope that he will run into supply problems.

[randallw]

Perhaps I am just imagining it, but the Soviets seem to get a bonus to their units during a blizzard.  Seems very odd to me.

[MrLongleg]

ORIGINAL: CarnageINC

I tried building a 'Maginot line' on from the Black to Baltic Sea using the Dnepr and Dvina rivers during the spring and summer after my first blizzard during my AI game.  I would be cautious of doing so, its a major drain of manpower when you look at the overall situation of how many your going to build.  I cut most of the fortified regions off at 90% manpower and they didn't stop filling out until late summer.  That manpower was very sorely missed come next winter when a lot of my divisions were still under 50%.  In addition, very few fortification made it to lvl 4 fortification, most where still at 2.

Keep in mind that you should be thinking of Soviet deep operations in 44 and 45.  So if you do build a line do it in parts when your manpower needs are not that great, start in late summer or so.  Start at the closest parts of your front line to your 'Maginot Line' and work your way backwards into your territory.

Good luck with the blizzard, thanks for being the first one in a pbem game doing an AAR, hang in there, better weather is not that far off.....well maybe not that close either. [:D]

The idea would not to build forts, but instead not attacking further but digging in during the whole summer. The Russians would need a lot of attacks to brea thrugh such a line and would have lots of losses. If you keep a 6 to one loss ratio it could work in the end - but well - it would e kind of boring [&:]

[jjdenver]

Currently a 3.5:1 loss ratio. That hurts. But it doesn't look like you are done for - if it were me I'd trade land for time where I didn't have good fort lines built - just as the Soviets can in summer 41.

The fort line defense I am not a fan of but I'm sure someone will do it so you might have fun trying it. I don't think it'd be too boring since you could keep your Panzers in reserve and have fun counterattacking.

[CarnageINC]

ORIGINAL: jjdenver

Currently a 3.5:1 loss ratio. That hurts. But it doesn't look like you are done for - if it were me I'd trade land for time where I didn't have good fort lines built - just as the Soviets can in summer 41.

The fort line defense I am not a fan of but I'm sure someone will do it so you might have fun trying it. I don't think it'd be too boring since you could keep your Panzers in reserve and have fun counterattacking.

IMO I think for the first blizzard panzer's don't have enough combat power to counter attack. They barely have enough to make a good fire brigade if you need'em

[Klydon]

I disagree about the St. Nicholas operation. It was a brilliant idea that nearly cost the Russians a huge chunk of divisions and would have given the Germans some breathing space there. The issue with it was the execution with leaving a single motorized division as the stopper next to 4 stacks of Russians. The Russian made a good move and kicked out the motorized division. Had he not done that, the German would have crushed all those divisions in that pocket and retired in good order. The plan miscarried and now the German has to pay for it.

I have played around with the Operation Typhoon scenario several times in order to get a feel for the weather changes, etc. I don't even care about trying to win that scenario; its all about what to do with the Germans as the weather transitions. More or less what I did on the last clear weather turn was to make some last minute attacks and the withdraw a bit to dig and fall back on my rail heads. It took the Russians a bit to move up to contact my line, but they did. I had my armor concentrated in a couple of spots (well, they were spread out behind the infantry, so I could have a double line of digging going on). Snow came and I punched through the Russians line and pulled a big encirclement off much like St Nicks bag on the first turn of snow. Crushed them on the second turn and retired back on the third. The following blizzard turns were tough, even with the Germans in level 3 entrenchments. I still have some more learning to do for sure.

Some other considerations: Blizzard effects are the worst during December, which is also likely when issues with distances between rail head and troops come into play. In January and February, they have declining effects and your rail heads will probably be closer to the front in more areas.

[Klydon]

Grats me on double post. [:@]

[MrLongleg]

ORIGINAL: CarnageINC




IMO I think for the first blizzard panzer's don't have enough combat power to counter attack. They barely have enough to make a good fire brigade if you need'em

Just found out that a gang of Russian cavalry easily runs over a freshly refitted Panzer Division with 300+ tanks in clear terrain killing 100+ tanks. That is really a bit frustrating [:(]. The only thing I can do is run, Forrest, run...

[MrLongleg]

ORIGINAL: Klydon

I disagree about the St. Nicholas operation. It was a brilliant idea that nearly cost the Russians a huge chunk of divisions and given the Germans some breathing space there. The issue with it was the execution with leaving a single motorized division as the stopper next to 4 stacks of Russians. The Russian made a good move and kicked out the motorized division. Had he not done that, the German would have crushed all those divisions in that pocket and retired in good order. The plan miscarried and now the German has to pay for it.

I have played around with the Operation Typhoon scenario several times in order to get a feel for the weather changes, etc. I don't even care about trying to win that scenario; its all about what to do with the Germans as the weather transitions. More or less what I did on the last clear weather turn was to make some last minute attacks and the withdraw a bit to dig and fall back on my rail heads. It took the Russians a bit to move up to contact my line, but they did. I had my armor concentrated in a couple of spots (well, they were spread out behind the infantry, so I could have a double line of digging going on). Snow came and I punched through the Russians line and pulled a big encirclement off much like St Nicks bag on the first turn of snow. Crushed them on the second turn and retired back on the third. The following blizzard turns were tough, even with the Germans in level 3 entrenchments. I still have some more learning to do for sure.

Some other considerations: Blizzard effects are the worst during December, which is also likely when issues with distances between rail head and troops come into play. In January and February, they have declining effects and your rail heads will probably be closer to the front in more areas.

Operation Nikolaus could have been a great success, if I had not made that blunder. I found out to late in the move, that there was no possibility to reinforce the weak spot. But again - this is kind of cool and like real war, because all sides made enormous mistakes in the Russian campaign. Now my hope is, that Marshall M. will become over confident.

[MrLongleg]

T29: 1/1/42

The defense line resembles a Swiss cheese with a lot of gapping holes in it, especially between 16th and 2nd army and 2nd army and 9th army. Also the area between 4th and 6th army does not look promising. And 11th army area is a huge problem of its own. Lost more than 200K men this turn. In turn 28 I lost the pocketed Panzer Div. and the Motorized Div in addition to 2 infantry divs, that retreated int the pocket instead of running west.

The army strength also speaks a clear language. Tanks 1:3, men 1:2,5 and planes even worse. Looks like I will have to fall back in the hole southern front to shorten the line. So I am seriously considering now to retreat to a line Nikolaev - Kiev - Mogilev - Vitebsk and giving up everything east. Still 8 blizzard turns ahead. If I keep loosing 200K men per turn there won't be much left of the once impressive German army.

The lesson learned is that you need to be able to form a fortified line well before the blizzard, ideally with a depth of 2 hexes (see BIgAnorak's line backer defense).

On a positive note - the situation around Leningrad has stabilized - all his attacks were repelled there with heavy losses for the Russians.

[CarnageINC]

The only advantage to forming a linebacker defense is that it will probably only buy you 2 turns where you not on full retreat IMO.  Its a nice thing but I wouldn't expect it to save you for long [:D].  Don't give ground to freely, you paid in blood to take it and you'll have to pay more blood to take it back.  Sorry to hear about your lost divisions, you would think they would retreat to safety.  That might be something for the 'guys' to look at if it starts happening a lot.

Keep your chin up....only 8 more turns to go before you get your rest! [8D]

[2ndACR]

Well, I did not get here quick enough. I would really have warned you NOT to use your non German troops on the front line anywhere during the Blizzard, except for the mountain troops. The Blizzard hammers them flat.

Your forts are very low, so it will probably be a very, very ugly winter. Those huge holes in your line and the single division front will really hurt you. I don't mean to sound defeatist, but even against the AI, I have run about 5 winters and only once have I kept the Russians down to just 2 small break outs that I crushed 3 turns later. But I stopped all forward progress in late Sept early Oct and just dug in everywhere. I kept deliberate attacking anything that got next to me, but stayed put and dug. That allowed me to have level 4 forts almost across the entire front. And even then, the attrition losses wrecked whole divisions.

It is almost impossible, but can be done.......against the AI anyway. Against a human, not real sure.

[randallw]

Those RR construction units are probably wasting their time, since their hexes may get overrun within a few weeks. [:D]