Barbarossa to the Volga or Berlin? ComradeP vs notenome

[ComradeP]

Turn 9 was fairly successful.

AGN area: Pskov and Velikie Luki were captured.

[ComradeP]

Decent progress was made in the AGC area, I don't think he expected me to go south. I've outflanked part of his defensive line. This time, the threat to his flank is genuine rather than just psychological.

[ComradeP]

My attempt to get across the Dnepr between Kiev and Cherkassy failed, fairly predictably. I didn't use enough men.

[ComradeP]

Good progress again in the far south. I don't think he expected me to turn south here either. There was nothing in the swamps south of Nikolaev. I'm not going to try and capture the Crimea probably, but there are no natural defences between where the SS is and the Soviet concentration a bit further north along the Dnepr. I expected Odessa's garrison to retreat when attacked, so instead of routing it to safety I pushed them back and isolated them.

[ComradeP]

I disbanded the RHG HQ's, the Italian air command and some other units.

I got two held results. One Soviet unit got its usual heavily inflated CV when facing a hasty attack by two mobile divisions, so it held, and the second held result was for the aforementioned attack across the Dnepr that failed.

[ComradeP]

notenome made a single counterattack against an SS motorized brigade in the AGC area (a counterattack I was expecting, but was also expecting to fail), which failed at 1:1.3 (48 vs 35).

Model, who took over XXXXVI Panzer corps after Von Vietinghoff died, has been promoted to General.

The war will turn into a grind in the center soon, probably. I'm still considering what I'll try to do in the south, whether I'll try to capture Stalino and the other nearby cities.

I'm in no hurry to take Kiev, as long as it will happen at some point in 1941. My screen is pinning down far more of his divisions than mine thus far.

[2ndACR]

Just curious, I see you disbanding HQ's, what benefit are you getting? I find that I am hurting bad for HQ's in my games. So I use the RHG HQ's for my garrison's and digging in troops etc.

[ComradeP]

My security units are all assigned to OKH. The RHG HQ's have about 500 support squads and 500 vehicles assigned to them. That's 10000 manpower and about 1/4 of a Panzer division worth of vehicles assigned to each RHG HQ, HQ's I'm not using. The logical choice in that situation is to disband them. Similarly, I don't need an Italian air HQ, or more than 1 Italian air base at the moment.

[2ndACR]

Okay, might have to try that then. I just seem to be scrambling just to keep my HQ's from being over loaded all the time. Did you re-assign the other Italian air base somewhere, if so, where?

[ComradeP]

After disbanding the Italian air HQ, it was automatically assigned to the Expeditionary Italian corps/CSIR corps HQ.

RHG HQ's can only contain security units, so disbanding them won't harm your C&C. It might actually improve it, as they're all assigned to an army group and the security units just overload the army groups further, which is why I assign them to OKH.

[2ndACR]

Cool, I knew they only commanded security troops. Thank you, always pick up something new. Do you strip out the Romanians from German Corps too? Hard to train up the Romanians, but have gotten a couple into the 70 morale clearing pockets and they become quite reliable then. Still not going to trust them in the winter though.

[ComradeP]

I'm trying to train the Romanians at the moment. The cavalry units are generally around 60 morale, the armoured division's approaching 70. It will be tricky to train most of the infantry pre-winter 1941, but I'm hoping I can train them some more in 1942.

I don't have a shortage of HQ's for German units thus far, so the Romanian infantry that starts as part of a German army stays in it. I've reassigned some of the Romanian cavalry units back to the Romanian cavalry corps for the moment, but they might end up in a Panzer corps HQ again in the future. Command capacity improves a bit each year.

[ComradeP]

The server either lost my save or never got it.

In any case, I have to do turn 10 over again after nearly finishing it, so the update will be delayed a bit.

In the game I had saved, 1.5 Panzer corps got across the Dnepr near Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporizhye, but this time there are fewer on the eastern bank so the replay is beneficial to notenome thus far.

I did get a low damage roll for Krivoi Rog's resource production (didn't check it last time), and both the resource production at Kirovograd and Krivoi Rog is below 50% damage (damage is randomized as 25+d75, so I got less than the average for both cities) and should thus be operational as soon as the rail line gets there (I'm not entirely sure whether that's necessary, but I think it is, even though the production shows up in the production screen).

[ComradeP]

My turn 10 losses were fairly high and I still can't really hurt the Soviets.

AGS has two further bridgeheads across the Dnepr, and I've made some reasonable progress towards my goals in the AGN and AGC areas.

I'll start with the losses this time.

If I exclude the losses from the surrendering divisions, Soviets losses are only about two or three times higher than mine. I really can't put the hurt on the Soviets. At best, they rout, taking some 3000-4000 losses (or 400-500 a day considering the scale), end up conveniently next to their HQ and will be back in action next turn. That's just not good enough.

I've started a thread about this on the tester forum. Some post-battle sequence might be a good idea for good attacks, where the attackers can give chase with their mobile units, who can all engage the defender again, possibly at maximum range. Routing could also possibly be more random, it's much too easy for the Soviets to maintain cohesion currently.

Now that I'm fighting mostly fortified units, the average attack starts with me taking about 700 losses, the Soviets then taking a similar amount of losses and the Soviets retreating in good order. I can't really touch most of the units afterwards as they generally retreat to another hex with friendly units, or I run out of MP's. That's also what makes the "carpet" of units so good: units rarely lose cohesion, and you know where they'll end up even when they rout. The Axis are essentially powerless to stop that, as they have little to no force multipliers to limit defensive fire or to inflict serious losses (and no, I don't think losing 3000-4000 men in a week for some divisions can be described as serious losses).

I believe I lost 3 battles, one deliberate attack across the Dnepr (the second one succeeded) and two hasty attacks, maybe I lost three hasty attacks.

[ComradeP]

AGN.

The unit in the swamps between the lakes is encircled. I'll start digging in soon.

Progress is bloody even against the most mediocre units.

[ComradeP]

In the AGC area, a breakthrough was made north of Smolensk and a nice pocket was formed near Gomel.

[ComradeP]

In the AGS area, 6th Army made it across the Dnepr and another defending stack was pushed back, but I didn't have the MP's to cross, so that will have to wait until next turn.

[ComradeP]

In the southermost area, a new bridgehead was created, the existing bridgehead was widened and the cavalry units should soon be in trouble. In my first try of the turn which was lost on the Slitherine server somehow or never reached it, the new bridgehead in this area was better as the deliberate attack against the Rifle division east of the Dnepr that failed this time succeeded that time, so a second attack was needed this time. Other things went better this time, so it evens eachother out.

I'm at a loss why some people, notenome included, are defending the Perekop peninsula in the hex next to my air landing division instead of one hex to the south. Maybe he has forts there too. This hex can be attacked from two hexsides, the other from just one.

Depending on the cavalry's MP's, the two Panzer corps might be isolated, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.

[Q-Ball]

Are you playing conservatively, or is your opponent pretty solid, or both? It looks like he is forming nice defensive lines, but I wonder if you are pushing it enough. I think Comrade you decided to forego a deep push this year, is that still your plan?

[ComradeP]

My opponent Sir Robin'ed to the Dnepr with most of his army, which meant he could build fairly solid lines along a large part of the Dnepr, but not everywhere, and that his losses are minimal. There was no real way I could've countered this. Even with more units in AGC, breaching the Dnepr defenses prior to around turn 4-5/prior to the infantry showing up is tricky. I'd say my advance in the AGS area was quite rapid, and it's nearly impossible to get to the Dnepr in strength prior to turn 7-8 with just the normal AGS mobile units as long as your opponent stages a remotely competent phased withdrawal.

My main problem is that no matter how good my attacks are, Soviet losses are fairly low, and that the only way I can inflict serious losses is through pocketing units, but pockets are pretty much a rarity in my game with notenome. I'm playing somewhat conservatively, but the limited progress in the AGC area is mostly due to how easy it is for the Soviets to establish a fairly solid defensive line. Next turn, with my infantry across the Dnepr, I should be able to make some good attacks, but it will still be costly.

I'm trying to figure out what the best idea is currently: widen the Soviet flank in the south or just punch more or less straight north. It would be amusing if Kiev didn't fall in 1941, but it's a possibility.

I have about 25 hexes to capture and the Desna to cross before Kiev is isolated. Of course, as soon as I tear open his flank in the south, his static defence along the Dnepr should become much more difficult to sustain.