In this game with Q-Ball, the key wasn't the targets, it was the commitment of Japanese infantry divisions. Brad set up an elaborate deception that he was targeting Australia, but since I never saw any infantry divisions come ashore, I was very skeptical and began to suspect India was his target by early January 1942. So, to me, the key to identifying the true targets is to follow the infantry divisions.
I only dimly recall his Oz effort, but outside of a lot of smoke was it really that big a deal? What do you think you would have done differently, say, if at the same time he was coming ashore on Ceylon he'd landed the PI-batch of infantry he didn't seige Bataan with at, perhaps, Cairns? Call it three divisions? How would you have responded in the period before he commmitted the other whatever (7-8?) divisions into mainland India?
ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I'm still in Show Me mode on Oz being easier. I don't see a strategic hinge in Oz with the same oomph that Karachi has in India.
I don't play this game, or even have any particular interest in either naval combat or the pacific theatre WWII, but the AARs here are a fascinating read, and this 'pair' in particular has been very interesting. So apologies in advance if I am really asking something completely 'out of place' or a really dumb question.
I sort of feel embarrassed even asking this, but it becomes more and more a burning question for me as an outsider, the more this discussion goes.
I followed the whole Socatra(?)/Karachi line of death debate. The impression I got out of it was that most, if not all, of the extra reinforcements triggered for the allies in crossing this line arrived in Karachi itself (or in Capetown and can only really enter the game by passing through a Karachi blockade), and seemed to need time/resources to 'fill out' before being able to project real combat power.
Certainly my (limited) understanding is that even full strength troops who arrive trapped with limited supplies are as much a liability as a bonus in combat.
So the impression I got, was that if Karachi could be invested and 'cut off' from supply by sea (from Capetown?) then all the additional reinforcements either couldn't get there (if arriving via capetown) or having arrived there would actually be, especially over time, more of a drain on supplies than a positive contributor to combat strength.
Which means that successfully investing Karachi and having additional Allied LCUs arrive there to overstretch an extremely limited supply situation is actually beneficial to the Japanese player, especially from the POV of Auto-Victory points - additional reinforcements essentially become free VPs if they never get an opportunity to do anything but starve. Further, if supplies are used up in filling out and supporting the new LCUs that just leaves the collective force to starve even faster.
That makes Karachi even more of a strategic hinge. If the Japanese invest it effectively, they stand to 'earn' even greater VP than they anticipated as they swallow many or all of the reinforcements cheaply.
Is the situation significantly different from the impression I have?
I think perhaps it might be - surely all the experienced players couldn't have missed such a wrinkle. So apologies again if I am out of order here.
Nearly all of the reinforcements triggered by Japanese encroachment in India arrive at Capetown.
There is one major exception: the Waristan Division arrives in Karachi. I think it arrives with complete TOE and something around 300 AV. (It will be a welcome arrival for the Allied player, but is by no means enough to halt the Japanese player if he arrives in earnest by summer 1942).
I know the Allied device pools get a big bump, but I don't know how this will effect the supply situation. If drawing on the increases in these pools requires suppy, then yes it could be a major problem for India. (I didn't get a decent amount of supply to India until I started running regular, major supply convoys sometime around early summer of 1942).
The Allies also get a bunch of aircraft, included much-needed fighters. I don't know where they arrive. If they don't arrive in India/Karachi, though, they won't be of much help if the Japanese have imposed a blockade.
A few things I might do differently if I were starting another Scenario Two agianst Brad or a player of equal ability, experience, and aggression: (1) As soon as possible transfer some major USA Marine and Army units on the West Coast to East Coast. From there I'd send them to Capetown, then to Karachi/India. this would weaken defenses in other key areas, but it would put some strength in India in early 1942 - February maybe? - probably before Japan could impose the blockade; (2) Immediately organize some major supply runs to India from Capetown to India and from USA to Capetown to India (I did this in this game, but not immediately and with full energy). (3) Getting reinforcements to Oz would be a priority, as would Hawaii. There aren't enough troops, and there aren't enough political points, so from Day One of the war the Allied player is going to be pulling his hair out.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
One other thing - I didn't build any ports or airfields in India because I had a hunch Brad was coming that way. I didn't want to hand over to him ready-made major airfields and ports. This proved to be a big help, but it also posed a potential problem as I almost didn't have enough aribases of my own. Fortunately, I figured things out soon enough that I had Bombay's airfield to level nine by the time Brad arrived, and Ahmadebad made it to nine not long afterwards. That was a tight thing, though. Bombay, Ahmadebad, and Karachi are three critical bases for the Allies. I think I'd begin developing those airfields immediately. I also wouldn't have any intention of committing major troops to the defense of Ceylon or the rest of India. I might use them as a speed bump, but I'd make sure they were able to withdraw safely to those three bases. If successful, the Allies can probably mount a pretty stout defense of western India by spring '42.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
A few things I might do differently if I were starting another Scenario Two agianst Brad or a player of equal ability, experience, and aggression: (1) As soon as possible transfer some major USA Marine and Army units on the West Coast to East Coast. From there I'd send them to Capetown, then to Karachi/India. this would weaken defenses in other key areas, but it would put some strength in India in early 1942 - February maybe? - probably before Japan could impose the blockade; (2) Immediately organize some major supply runs to India from Capetown to India and from USA to Capetown to India (I did this in this game, but not immediately and with full energy). (3) Getting reinforcements to Oz would be a priority, as would Hawaii. There aren't enough troops, and there aren't enough political points, so from Day One of the war the Allied player is going to be pulling his hair out.
Sounds like exactly what I did, except replace India with Oz as the destination for troops. Granted in my AAR PH took out the DEI very quick via the Mersing Gambit.
Of course, transferring all those US troops to Oz or India leaves the Pacific WIDE open, but that's the gamble you take. Where do you send those Marines? The Pacific, Oz, or India? You better decide quickly and correctly, or you might get auto-vp'ed
That's exactly right. The Allied player has to guess right or he's gonna get clobbered.
I was equally concerend about Hawaii, India, and Australia at the start of this game, though I felt India was best able to defend itself, which is true given enough time. From now on with Scenario Two, that time won't be available if a Japanese player intends to strike.
I am still convinced that a conquest of Oz or India will give Japanese an auto victory. I am concerned that Hawaii also poses a threat, though I don't think it's as great. There aren't as many VPs in Hawaii and an Allied player can manage even with Hawaii in enemy hands.
In fact, in a Scenario Two game against an experienced, aggressive Japanese player, that IJ player would probably be doing the Allies a favor by targeting Hawaii rather than Oz or India.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
South of Poona: In a fit of desperation, the mauled three-division IJA stack launched a deliberate attack against massed Allied armor (1300 AV) south of Poona. With this IJA stack about to be destroyed, Brad probably hoped to inflict at least some damage. But the battle resulted in terrific casualties to the Japanese army. I'm going to wait one more day - for the infantry to come up - before attacking. But this Japanese army will not escape.
Leaky Bucket: At Poona, the Allies got something like 20:1 odds against two disorganized, unsupplied Japanese divisions, but the attack didn't accomplish much. I have to get the AV down to zero before units will begin disappearing. Until then, the game mechanics mean that a surrounded army can put up a pretty stiff fight. I should also note that the Japanese do control one hexside (NE) and one-third of 6th Guards Division moved out. I'm sure the rest will follow tomorrow. But I control that hex to the NE with 325 AV, and Brad's units won't be able to withdraw from there. So this army will be detroyed in the near future.
48th Div: This IJA division is still stuck in the jungle south of Bombay. It's trapped and can't reach any sanctuary. It will be destroyed as soon as I free up some of the troops devoted to the other two IJ elements.
Allied Carriers: Will reach Tahiti in two or three days. After refueling, they are bound for either Fiji or Auckland.
Allied Strategy: Major elements of the Allied strategic plan have been in place, and discussed, since the beginning of this AAR. The time is getting closer, now, when that plan will be implemented. So I've turned my thoughts to what I really need to accomplish between now and then in order to facilitate the plan. I will discuss this at length in posts to follow later.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Allied Carriers: Will reach Tahiti in two or three days. After refueling, they are bound for either Fiji or Auckland.
Brad must be mad as a hornet right now. I would show those carriers as soon as possible. He will come running for some payback
Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly
He may jump at the opportunity just because he's looking for something to do - so I would expect a fairly vigorous response, if not completely thought through.
Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...
Longtime lurker here, and newbie at AE. Just wanted to thank you (in fact, everyone who posted) for the great AAR, which I have read from the beginning over the last few days. Super interesting, and highly instructive.
"If you want to make peace, you don't talk to your friends. You talk to your enemies." - Moshe Dayan
Nearly all of the reinforcements triggered by Japanese encroachment in India arrive at Capetown.
No, I think you're misremembering. From the series of ER posts I did. From the trigger report:
"India invaded! Counter invasion forces released.
xAK Charles McCormick arrives at Cristobal
xAK Ganges arrives at Cape Town
AM Kiwi arrives at Auckland
AM Moa arrives at Auckland
XXI Indian Corps arrives at Aden
6th Indian Division arrives at Abadan
10th Indian Division arrives at Aden
Waziristan Division arrives at Karachi
31st Armoured Division arrives at Aden
8th Indian Division arrives at Aden
Emergency Convoy Supply Convoy arrives at Aden
5th Indian Division arrives at Aden
XXI Corps Engineer Battalion arrives at Aden "
This shows why it's critical for the Japanese player to have Karachi in hand in parallel with the trigger. He just doesn't have time to futz around while forces move from CT.
Now I'm curious, how strong is the Waziristan division? Looks like even if Karachi is the first place you invade, you won't be able to attack before it arrives. If it is a full division, this could make any attempt to land directly at Karachi very difficult. On the other hand, it could be a smaller unit with a misleading name.
Bullwinkle, can you recall if the Waziristan division is a significant fighting force?
The division you name is medium stiff, but some of the others off-map are good too. As CR alludes, however, activating devices out of the pools could be a real bear depending on supply states in the Mideast and Karachi. Lots of discussion on this at the time, especially in how to deal with Bombay and its x4 terrain bonus.
I think the optimum IJA approach might be to land in force at Surat (which doesn't trigger). Then build up the force in preparation for moving on Karachi (triggering reinforcemetns) and Bombay. You can use the KB and combat TFs, based out of Surat or even Goa, to then steam north and impose a blockade of Karachi and Bombay. That should prevent the Allies from getting the reinforcements from Aden to India.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
I think the optimum IJA approach might be to land in force at Surat (which doesn't trigger). Then build up the force in preparation for moving on Karachi (triggering reinforcemetns) and Bombay. You can use the KB and combat TFs, based out of Surat or even Goa, to then steam north and impose a blockade of Karachi and Bombay. That should prevent the Allies from getting the reinforcements from Aden to India.
Opinions will differ on which is the lower risk path. My feeling is, if you have seaborne strategic mobility because the Allies give it to you, and thus you have surprise, use it. Crunching overland from the south up to invest Karachi might work if the IJN realio trulio blockades the wormhole, BUT, if it fails, your overland hammer is going to run into a huge grunch of new divisions sitting at Karachi with decent organic supplies, morale, and disruption levels. Then it's a siege the Japanese might lose.
Better to me to do a 5-division Inchon landing on Karachi, triggering as soon as the first Japanese foot hits dirt, overwhelm Karachi, close the port, and get some LBA in very quickly to hold the wormhole shut.
The Grand Allied Plan (ie, how 1943 will unfold, at least until first contact with the enemy)
Goal: To seize, hold, and utlize one critical IJ area, and to use that strike to clear out opposition to allow Allied moves in at least two other areas.
Main Objective: Sumatra (D-Day spring or summer 1943)
A. Primary targets: Padang, Benkoelen, Lahat, and possibly Oosthaven.
B. Secondary targets; Cocos Island, Christmas (IO) Island, several islands off Sumatra's south coast, several of the Andaman chain.
Secondary Objectives (following Sumatra by a week or two):
A. Primary Targets: Tarawa and Luganville
B. Secondary Targets: Ocean Island, Nauru Island, Tabituea
Feints: Prior to the invasion of Sumatra, the Allies will sned mock invasion TFs towards Broome/Derby/Darwin followed a day or two later by a move towards the Kuriles.
A. To heighten the perceived threat to the Darwin area, the Allies will invade Exmouth and Port Headland, the former in 12/42 or 1/43; the latter later).
B. The Allies have already done the heavy lifting to build up the appearance of threat in NoPac by substantially garrisoning and building the Aleutians bases.
C. The invasions of Marcus Island and Wake Island, to take place in 11/42 or 12/42, are meant to enhance the appearance of a major Allied move in CenPac and NoPac.
D. To "free up" CenPac from the KB threat, the Allies will reveal their carriers near New Caledonia around mid November of '42. With the use of surprise and screening picket ships giving ample warning of the KB, the Allies will concurrently invade Noumea unless the KB is present and a carrier battle seems imminent.
E. Immediately upon completion of the Noumea operations, the Allies carriers will report to SW Oz to provide cover for the Exmouth and/or Port Headland invasions.
F. During late '42 and ealry '43, the Allies will stage invasions of North Male Island, Addu Atoll, Diego Garcia, and possibly Ceylon, using forces currently in India. Air cover to be provided by LBA. These operations aren't really a feint, but will aid the Allies in staging long-range aircraft from India to bases in Sumatra.
Force Allocation:
A. Sumatra: Five USA divisions, two Australian divisions, the equivalent of several more divisions (forces still assembling).
B. Luganville: Allied troops currently committed to (or stationed at) Noumea operation, Auckland, Suva, Nadi, Pago Pago, and Tahiti (totalling up to three division equivalents).
C. Tarawa: One division equivalent currently at Pearl Harbor (this needs to be bumped up)
D. Ocean Island: One RCT (at Pearl).
E. Naru Island: One RCT (at Pearl)
F. Exmouth: Two Oz Bdes (in Oz).
G. Port Headland: Two Oz Bdes, three Oz Bns (in Oz, this needs to be bumped up)
H. Marcus Island: Two RCT, tanks, combat engineers (at Pearl)
I. Wake Island: Four RCT, tanks, arty, combat engineers, HQ (at Pearl)
Invasion Timeline:
A. Noumea (carrier activity and possibly invasion) - 11/42
B. Wake (and probably Marcus) - following Noumea within a week
C. Exmouth - I might try to wing this one, or I might await the carriers
D. Male/Addu/Diego: Late in 12/42 or early 1/43
E. Sumatra: no earlier than 3/43, no later than 9/43 (leaning towards earlier now)
F. Tarawa: within a week or ten days of Sumatra
G. Luganville: within days of Tarawa
Assuming the Plan Survives Enemy Contact: Sumatra would give the Allies a death grip on Japanese oil. The enemy will throw everythying at the Allies. I don't expect to advance from there in any meaningful way until well into 1944. The Allies will have their hands full in that theater just holding off the enemy. But that should clear other theaters for some advances - CenPac in particular.
Key to the Plan: To carry this off, the Allies need vast numbers of troop transports and an intact carrier fleet (hence my shielding of ships and CVs since December 7). Prior to Sumatra, this plan requires that I expose my fleet carriers only twice - at New Caledonia this month and at Exmouth or Port Headland in two months or so. Should I stumble into a defeat here, this plan is vitiated.
About Troop Transports: The Allies don't get many of these in 1942. I just completed a survey of where mine are, and I'm making some major adjustments. Here's my current census of AP and xAP location (not including a handful currently at sea): Pearl Harbor - 16 (just enough to handle Wake and Marcus); New Zealand - 17 (enough to handle Noumea); Australia (24 - plenty to handle Exmouth, Port Headland, but only a small fraction of what will be needed here for Sumatra); Capetown - 48 (far more than is needed to handle the IO operations plus transferring troops to Oz in coming months, so I'm sending 25 of these to Oz immediately); Aden/Abadan - 13 (enough to handle the IO invasions with the loan of a few from Capetown). Every new AP, APA, xAP, LST, etc. that arrives in the next four months will be like gold. Every such ship lost in the operations taking place during that interval will be dearly lamented.
More later.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
No, though I don't need fighters everywhere since I'm not fighting everywhere at the same time.
1. Noumea will have the Allied carrier cover.
2. Noumea is meant to draw the KB, so that Wake and Marcus can proceed with just a handful of CVEs (Marcus is only a level one airfield; Wake is a level three, which should exact a toll, but it's an atoll too, so an invasion in overwhelming numbers should take it quickly).
3. Exmouth and/or Port Headland will probably have the carriers for cover (Exmouth I may handle by surprise only).
4. Sumatra will have the carriers.
5. Sumatra will draw all IJA aircraft, permitting the Allies to move on Tarawa and Luganville with just CVE cover.
6. The Diego/Addu/North Male operations will be handled by surprise; Ceylon will be covered by LBA.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
