Barbarossa to the Volga or Berlin? ComradeP vs notenome

[ComradeP]

As more or less predicted, two Panzer corps were encircled in the AGS area, but that's just a minor inconvenience at the moment. In some ways, it actually makes my job quite a bit easier as the cavalry is now in the open, instead of in their fortified swamp hexes on the Dnepr. Two of the pocketed divisions have normal MP's due to being in a hex with a Panzer corps HQ with plenty of fuel dumps.

notenome attacked twice, both attacks were held and resulted in brutal losses to the Soviets. 10 men of 11th Panzer were lost for a cost of 1227 cavalrymen and 15 artillery pieces. Odds 1:160 in my favour. I have absolutely no idea why notenome made that attack. The other attack was a bit more close, but still a slaughter 60th Motorized and the 1st Hungarian motorized brigade lost 291 men, 3 artillery pieces and an AFV for a cost of 7038 men, 82 artillery pieces and 13 AFV's. Odds 1:1.8, so that might've worked.

The most peculiar thing is that a hasty attack by 3 mobile divisions, which routed a cavalry division across a major river caused only 514 casualties to it, but a single failed hasty attack caused over twice the losses. This reaffirms my belief that successful mobile unit attacks need to cause more casualties. I've started a thread about that on the tester forum.

Von Mackensen, III Panzer corps commander, is now a Generaloberst and Von Briesen, LII corps commander, now has an initiative of 6.

The only really bad news after the Soviet turn is that I've lost 22.000 men to attrition alone.

[Klydon]

Not really sure why he exposed all that cav. IMO, I think the Soviets should save their cav and not just throw it away unless something significant can take place. Cav is the first thing that can be turned into corps and that helps a lot during the winter offensive. To waste that many cav units simply to delay some panzers for a turn when they are not really going anyplace anyway does not seem like a good idea to me. 

[JAMiAM]

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

The most peculiar thing is that a hasty attack by 3 mobile divisions, which routed a cavalry division across a major river caused only 514 casualties to it, but a single failed hasty attack caused over twice the losses. This reaffirms my belief that successful mobile unit attacks need to cause more casualties. I've started a thread about that on the tester forum.

In and of itself, those results aren't too out of place. The routing division may have failed some morale check and has lost unit cohesiveness temporarily, even though it has only sustained relatively light casualties. Meanwhile, the failed hasty attack met with a unit that fought in place longer, causing the attack to halt (again temporarily) and suffered more casualties over the course of the battle. I don't see anything wrong with these results.

[ComradeP]

The problem is that with such fairly low retreat/rout losses, where retreating or routing often means you can't attack the unit again, you just can't really damage the Soviets, they have to do it themselves by attacking you. Even in the best case, you'll inflict 3000-4000 losses on a single division, but that's about it. Average casualties are lower.

[ComradeP]

Barbarossa might turn into a complete dud. Whether Kiev can be captured is doubtful. The Soviet mass/carpet defence is just too good and the losses I inflict are just way too low. My best hasty attacks with mobile units this turn inflicted about 1000 casualties, or about 300 per division involved, which doesn't make much sense.

The Axis situation can be so bad that in a game with a tester, my Axis opponent is considering whether to quit the game on turn 3 due to the defence formed in the first two turns.

I'm now taking risks as otherwise I won't get anywhere.

[ComradeP]

AGN got going again, to create more of a perimeter for the blizzard. Considering the more or less complete lack of Soviet forces in the area north of Velikie Luki, this seems to have surprised notenome.

[ComradeP]

AGC's progress is slow, but there are some pocket chances. The units south of Smolensk are a bit overstretched, but it's a risk I have to take now. The Smolensk area can still be evacuated/reinforced through the remaining operational rail lines to the east.

[ComradeP]

Quiet AGC/AGS sector:

[ComradeP]

AGS is slowly moving across the Dnepr or preparing for doing so.

I've moved another Panzer corps southwards as the terrain's better there. I hope to finally make some progress next turn.

I've taken Cherkassy with a big assault, I didn't want to wait until it was encircled.

Slightly below the lower edge of the screenshot: the more logical Perekop peninsula hex has also been partially fortified, I'm not sure yet whether I'll attack or dig in.

[ComradeP]

Losses were pretty high, I'm losing 700-1000 KIA for some deliberate attacks. Soviet losses still remain fairly low, 3000-4000 for the best of attacks, which is low considering the 1 week turn timeframe and that usually there's more than 1 unit in the hex.

I've lost around 33.000 men, notenome around 160.000.

I got 4 held results, one usual tough CV modifier in the swamps near Gomel, and a few failing hasty attacks.

[ComradeP]

XXXXVIII Panzer corps commander Kempf has been promoted to Generaloberst.

notenome made 7 attacks, 6 of which worked, 3 of which solely worked due to the odds modifier (that's important to note, in my opinion, as a good attack doesn't require the odds modifier to work and attack that work solely due to the odds modifier are in my opinion not attacks that the Soviets deserve credit for).

The critical attack, that against Wiking and a few Panzer corps HQ's worked solely due to the odds modifier, and only barely (1.3>2.3).

As soon as my level of frustration at the system crippling the Axis to a significant extent (mobile units attacks barely inflict damage, the Luftwaffe is incompetent, Soviet counterattacks are easier than they should be), I'll play the turn.

I have the feeling the 1941 campaign will turn into a train wreck, but it seems that might be necessary before some things are changed. Some of the testers are only just discovering how difficult playing as the Axis is, even though I've been posting about that for several weeks, and others have done so too on the public forum.

[Schmauser]

Question for you ComradeP.

Do you normally play Soviet?

The reason I ask is that your attack style looks like how the Soviets need to attack the Germans and not the way the Germans should be attacking the Soviets in 41.

Just my opinion (which is worth nothing), but your attacks lack infantry support because you are using too many of them to hold quiet sectors of the line. In those sectors I would break down an ID to regiments and put them in alternate hexes. Even a talented opponent will be hesitant to attack into a pocket and a German regiment is a fierce defender. This would give a divisional frontage of 5-7 hexes (depending how you count them) and give you extra divisons to break the line, push the shoulders and ultimately use more of the infantry to maintain more of the front side of the pocket. This will enable deeper penetrations and push his infantry off his forts. It will also give you higher CV's to break the line which will rout more units.


You can then recombine the regiments for pocket mop up so that the leading echelon can resupply and push the advance.

[ComradeP]

I indeed normally play as the Soviets, which is also exactly why I try to keep strong units/stacks wherever I can, especially with the kind of cheesy results the Soviet +1 odds modifier can give.

The only area I see where there's probably too much infantry is in the Pripyat marshes, where there are currently 3 divisions. That could be thinned out. All in all, the 12 divisions between Pripyat and Cherkassy are probably keeping at least 3 times as many Soviet divisions busy, which is a fine ratio in my opinion. If I'd split the divisions around Kiev up, the Soviets would attack to Zhitomir. The fact that some of their divisions might in the end be pocketed is irrelevant to them, as they'd tie up substantial forces needed to contain and then annihilate the breakthrough.

notenome's counterattacks have, until his turn 11, been entirely underwhelming. 2 working counterattacks in 10 turns is minimal for the Soviets, 8 in 11 turns still isn't good.

There's also the problem that a quiet sector to me might not be a quiet sector to him. If he sees I'm thinning my line near Kiev, the only real quiet sector together with the Pripyat marshes, he can easily rail another army in and take advantage of that. Given my current dispositions and damaged rail lines, it's much more difficult for me to move defenders in then it is for him to move attackers in. The concept of interior lines requires functional strategic movement capabilities.

Amongst the wargames I've played, WitE is probably the most generous to the Soviets in 1941.

Comparing it to, say, SSG titles: in ATD2 you can fairly easily destroy the cohesion of a Rifle corps with a Panzer corps in a couple of days by killing its steps and thus the units. In WitE, the best you can do in a week is inflict about 4000 casualties on 3 Rifle divisions with a deliberate attack. The difference is substantial. Axis mobile units really lack any real kind of punch, as the high CV's on their counters currently significantly overrate their performance in battle.

[Schmauser]

Thanks and I agree with you on WITE being a little generous.

Perhaps after a few more AI games I'll crawl out of my hole into the world of MP. [:)]

[ComradeP]

The turn turned into a lesser disaster than I had initially feared. 19 divisions were pocketed, with a further 17 being isolated for the moment and being "probables" for being properly pocketed at a later point.

I'm still not really getting anywhere, but at least I might finely destroy a turn's worth of Soviet reinforcements again, for the first time since turn 2.

I have little doubt that notenome, with an without assistance from the odds modifier, will be able to make some counterattacks, but at least I'm getting somewhere in the south now. The delay has been substantial, though.

[ComradeP]

In the AGN area, notenome pulled back for no clear reason. His withdrawals in the AGN area are mostly completely unnecessary and mystify me. They make my advance a lot more comfortable than I had expected.

I'll create a buffer between the Soviets and Pskov.

The infantry division north of the security regiment will probably be isolated, maybe even routed, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.

[ComradeP]

Limited successes in the AGC area, which could've been better if notenome had been even slightly less lucky with his attack on Wiking which isolated my mobile units. Two groups of units have been isolated, but their supply can be restored easily. They won't be going anywhere, though.

Three rail lines have been cut.

[ComradeP]

Quiet sector.

[ComradeP]

AGS's infantry mostly widened the bridgehead again, at a cost. The mobile units made some very welcome progress.

The units on the coast are probably doomed, he might be able to restore supply to the others.

[ComradeP]

The Crimea. I don't intend to try and capture the place, much too late for that. I'll create a buffer and dig in at the exit hexes.