Here are the results (excluding level bombers since I can use them anyway, so pure transport drops):
And the Soviets have no fighter cover in the area (overran their airbases).
1. attempt (no movement prior to the drops (range = 21), % to fly at 30%):
1st wave: 140t
2nd wave: 111t
3rd wave: 48t
Total: 299t
1.1 (2nd sample):
145
102
25
23
23
Total: 318t
1.2 (3rd sample):
145
104
64
Total: 313t
Some fluctuations, especially in the number of missions being flown.
1a. (no prior movement (range 21), % to fly at 50%):
1st (and only) wave: 115t
1a1. (2nd sample):
115t
1a2. (3rd sample):
115t
Consistent results here.
2. attempt (move to Voroshilovsk (range = 7), readiness dropped by 72%, 47%, 40% and 49% prior to flying any missions, % to fly at 30%):
1st wave: 140t
2nd wave: 79t
3rd wave: 48t
Total: 267t
2.1 (2nd sample):
145
99
82
50
21
Total: 397t
2.2 (3rd sample):
144
86
82
23
Total:335t
Large variance in the number of missions.
2a. (move to Voroshilovsk, 50%):
1st wave: 115t
2a1:
113
37
Total: 150t
2a2:
115t
Variance in the number of missions.
3. (move as close as possible (range = 3), % to fly at 30%):
1st wave: 144t
2nd wave: 95t
3rd wave: 61t
4th wave: 54t
Total: 354t
3.1 (2nd sample):
145
88
54
Total: 287t
3.2 (3rd sample):
145
84
23
19
Total: 271t
Variance in the number of missions.
3a. (move as close as possible (range = 3), % to fly at 50%):
1st wave: 113t
3a1 (2nd sample):
111t
3a2 (3rd sample):
113t
Very low variance.
At 30% moving to Voroshilovsk yields the best results (Voroshilovsk (R7) = 333t, 4 missions - close (R3) = 304t, 3.67 missions flown - stay in place (R21) = 310t, 3.67 missions).
At 50% moving to Voroshilovsk yields the best results (Voroshilovsk (R7) = 127t, 1.33 missions - no movement (R21) = 115t, 1 mission - as close as possible (R3) = 112t, 1 mission).
So essentially there is no hard and fast anwser. Due to the random factors (planes flying/getting damaged) there is a fairly high variance in the results (naturally larger at 30% to fly than at 50%). And with 3 samples for each scenario the sample size is fairly limited. There might be a sweetspot somehwere between the 3 range scenarios I have tried.
But with those 3 scenarios (and with my pretty banged up transports) there is a trend that indicates moving prior to starting supply missions will yield better results. And moving the maximum range will get slightly worse results than not having moved at all, but the airbases are closer to the spearheads (which is good for the range, but bad for supplies).
Conclusion:
I will try to stick to medium movement prior to making air supply missions, this has the added benefit of not getting too far away from my supply network too fast.
