Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[ny59giants]

Brad and I have exchanged a series of email summarizing our thoughts about the India campaign and the Oz deception. It was a helpful, cordial, interesting discussion. He did let slip that he "hasn't seen my carriers since around Christmas" (when Big E stumbled upon a sub near Sydney). I think he said this for a purpose. He might not have seen my carriers yet, but I bet he has some ideas. He also mentioned how hard it is to create deceptions. This is more likely an innocent statement since we were discussing his Oz efforts of early '42, but perhaps he's mulling over things in ways I can't imagine. Things will likely begin to happen in about ten days....or less, possibly, if Brad is outplaying me.

Paranoid much??

[Canoerebel]

11/13/42

Ah, paranoia, doubt, fear, and uncertainty. The four horsemen of the apocalypse! Eisenhower offered some very interesting insight into how a military leader must conduct himself in order to appear confident even when doubt assails him. On June 5, 1944, he drew up two sets of press release. One began something like this: "The Allies have been force to withdraw the forces engaged....all fault lies with me."

India: Allied deliberate attacks will finish off 6th Guards/C near Poona any day now. The armored attack/pursuits continue tomorrow against the stack south of Goa, which should die pretty soon. West of Poona, the first attack against IJA's 48th Division is promising - it comes off at just shy of 2:1 and inflicts higher casualties on this still-full strength, though undoubtedly badly disrupted, unit. It can hold out for a decent amount of time, but the end will come without committing a large number of Allied troops. Meanwhile, vanguard Allied units are sniffing around the suburbs west of Calcutta, closing in on Hyderabad, and starting to look at the roads leading to Madras. All indications are that the Japanese are in full retreat.

CenPac: The fleets continue to sail west with no sign of detection. The CVEs and combat ships remain at Pearl. Picket ships will be used extensively.

SoPac: The carriers are probably three or four days east of Auckland. A cruiser patrol plane reported something like seven enemy ships. I wonder if a wandering IJN sub caught a whiff? It would suit me, but I doubt it. A base force was transported by air to Funafuti. Now I've moved a PBY squadron there. Fiji Brigade arrived at Nadi. That unit and the rest of the Nadi garrison, including one Marine regiment, are now prepping for Luganville.

Summary: Everything looks right at the moment, and I still feel good about the plan and how things are developing; but there's time for things to change before the Allies pull any triggers.

[beppi]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

11/13/42

Ah, paranoia, doubt, fear, and uncertainty. The four horsemen of the apocalypse! Eisenhower offered some very interesting insight into how a military leader must conduct himself in order to appear confident even when doubt assails him. On June 5, 1944, he drew up two sets of press release. One began something like this: "The Allies have been force to withdraw the forces engaged....all fault lies with me."

India: Allied deliberate attacks will finish off 6th Guards/C near Poona any day now. The armored attack/pursuits continue tomorrow against the stack south of Goa, which should die pretty soon. West of Poona, the first attack against IJA's 48th Division is promising - it comes off at just shy of 2:1 and inflicts higher casualties on this still-full strength, though undoubtedly badly disrupted, unit. It can hold out for a decent amount of time, but the end will come without committing a large number of Allied troops. Meanwhile, vanguard Allied units are sniffing around the suburbs west of Calcutta, closing in on Hyderabad, and starting to look at the roads leading to Madras. All indications are that the Japanese are in full retreat.

CenPac: The fleets continue to sail west with no sign of detection. The CVEs and combat ships remain at Pearl. Picket ships will be used extensively.

SoPac: The carriers are probably three or four days east of Auckland. A cruiser patrol plane reported something like seven enemy ships. I wonder if a wandering IJN sub caught a whiff? It would suit me, but I doubt it. A base force was transported by air to Funafuti. Now I've moved a PBY squadron there. Fiji Brigade arrived at Nadi. That unit and the rest of the Nadi garrison, including one Marine regiment, are now prepping for Luganville.

Summary: Everything looks right at the moment, and I still feel good about the plan and how things are developing; but there's time for things to change before the Allies pull any triggers.

Rule #1, if everything looks right there is something wrong

[Canoerebel]

Oh, thanks for triggering my 1,387th fear/paranoia/uncertainty/doubt episode of the game.

[:)]

[Cribtop]

CR,

Have you given any thought to Brad's likely strategic plan now that the IJA is clearly heading for the exits in India? What will he do as far as defensive preparations, and how have losses and disproportionate force allocations to the western map edge affected the usual perimeter, if at all? Will he try spoiling attacks or some other device to re-take the initiative or go over to full bore defense? How will his distraction and/or player demoralization impact his grand strategy? Etc, etc.

[Canoerebel]

Here is what I know, suspect, and guess about Brad's force disposition:

1. I know that one division (33rd) has been sent to Palembang. To my knowledge, that and 65th Mixed Brigade at Padang are the only two major IJA units in Sumatra. Obviously, I'm keeping a watch on this critical island.

2. I know that Brad transferred three or four divisions to Rabaul and Truk several months ago, including the 2nd. These units were prepping for Suva. I would be stunned if Brad attacked Fiji at this late date - stunned but delighted, because the garrison is very strong.

3. If Brad doesn't invade Midway, the AE community needs to convene a court martial to try him for criminal neglect. I assume he's coming. I'm worried that he'll come as soon as he sees my carriers in SoPac. So I'm afraid my Wake/Marcus TFs might walk into a beehive.

4. Where will the rest of his massive Indian Expeditionary Army go? Some units will need time to recover from great loss (the six divisions decimated in India). These will go to non-malarial, quiet, rear bases. Manila, Rangoon, Japan, and maybe China. He'll undoubtedly spread the remainder around - probably around the DEI and some of the big bases in the Pacific. If I'm very lucky, he won't send any more divisions to Sumatra, but I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one more anchor the west side of the island.

5. I doubt Brad will go on the offensive now (except Midway). Too much time has passed. In his mind, the Allies will have used the nine months he has been absent in the Pacific to build up most bases greatly. I no longer have the least concern about Oz, New Zealand, Fiji, Pago Pago, Hawaii, or the Western Aleutians.

6. I think he's concentrating on defenses. He will probably also develop mobile reaction forces that might permit him to counterinvade places like Wake Island, Tarawa, Lunga, etc. in the event of Allied invasions.

7. I'm moving a decent army forward from Alice Springs/Tennant Creek to put some pressure on Daly Waters/Katherine. If I'm lucky, this will draw Brad's attention to the Darwin theater and Timor. I hope he sends alot of troops there.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3. If Brad doesn't invade Midway, the AE community needs to convene a court martial to try him for criminal neglect. I assume he's coming.

If you don't mind, I would like to hear more about this in a general context. I've seen so many posts on both sides of this - IJ player should always grab Midway vs. Midway is a waste of time.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3. If Brad doesn't invade Midway, the AE community needs to convene a court martial to try him for criminal neglect. I assume he's coming.

If you don't mind, I would like to hear more about this in a general context. I've seen so many posts on both sides of this - IJ player should always grab Midway vs. Midway is a waste of time.

Me 2.

It's almost 1943. What does he gain at this point in taking a 6000 max island he has to hang it out to supply?

[Canoerebel]

He who controls Midway controls thousands of square miles of ocean.

If Japan controls Midway, Japanese patrols and subs and picket ships can spread out from there, making it nearly impossible for the Allies to sneak up on places like Wake, Marcus and Iwo. If the Allies control it, though, the Allies have a decent chance of getting at least as far as Midway and maybe much farther before being detected (especially if the Allied player has succeeded in deception activity elsewhere). This could mean a difference in fifteen days or so warning time for the IJA player. Few Allied players are going to even try such a move if they don't control Midway.

If Japan takes Midway and the Allies want to move west, they've first got to retake the island. It's pretty far out on the limb for the IJA player to constantly guard with combat ships and carriers, especially by 1943, so the Allied player is likely to succeed, though at some cost. But the commitment of resources and time needed to plan, prep, launch, and achieve means critical assets aren't being used elsewhere, and it also alerts the IJ player that the Allied player cares enough about Midway to expend all that energy. That's something worth knowing.

Of course, the Allied player may have no plans to move out that way whatsoever, and in that case the IJ player gets the benefit of that developing awareness too.

In this game, Midway is even more important. The Allies have built up the Aleutians in a major way. A move to the west is certainly possible, from Brad's point of view. Midway is an important supporting base on the left flank of that theater. If the Allies hold it, it reduces the seciton of the Pacific that Japanese ships (especially carriers) can traverse without detection, making it more difficult for Japan to move from, say, Kwajalein to the Kuriles.

[Canoerebel]

Take this game, for instance.

I've held Midway throughout. I've also had a picket ship posted about fifteen hexes WSW of Midway. That means I would have known about any IJ carrier TF in the area during the past eleven months....or if the Japanese were coming. But there hasn't been anything. The picket has remained unmolested, which has told me alot. It also served to seriously narrow the "safe and undetected passage" space for the Japanese in that part of the Pacific.

Then there's Midway's immense utility as a sub base.

If Japan held Midway, not only would I lose the benefit of that knowledge, security, and buffer, but Japan would add a commensurate amount to it's own position.

Shame on any Allied player who doesn't use Midway to full advantage....and shame on any Japanese player who doesn't try to prevent it.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

He who controls Midway controls thousands of square miles of ocean.

If Japan controls Midway, Japanese patrols and subs and picket ships can spread out from there, making it nearly impossible for the Allies to sneak up on places like Wake, Marcus and Iwo. If the Allies control it, though, the Allies have a decent chance of getting at least as far as Midway and maybe much farther before being detected (especially if the Allied player has succeeded in deception activity elsewhere). This could mean a difference in fifteen days or so warning time for the IJA player. Few Allied players are going to even try such a move if they don't control Midway.

Meh.

The problem with Midway is that it's so far North. Allied invasions of Wake, Marcus and Iwo can be effected with minimal delay by doglegging down slightly to the South before resuming the WNW trajectory. There's quite a search gap in the Pacific ocean on the line between Johnston atoll and Wake. Midway ownership shouldn't impact this.

When combined with the fact that all naval search beyond 12 hexes is largely fruitless (further minimizing Midway's value proposition), it's a non-sequitor IMO. For the IJ to NOT take Midway is not irresponsible, IMO. You'd have to count me off of this jury, dude-san.

In this game, Midway is even more important. The Allies have built up the Aleutians in a major way. A move to the west is certainly possible, from Brad's point of view. Midway is an important supporting base on the left flank of that theater. If the Allies hold it, it reduces the seciton of the Pacific that Japanese ships (especially carriers) can traverse without detection, making it more difficult for Japan to move from, say, Kwajalein to the Kuriles.

But your Aleutians and Central Pacific ops are not interconnected, right? They are two independent thrusts that are mutually exclusive, as far as Brad knows. I doubt this is a major issue for him.

The main benefit to Midway as the Japs (as I see it) is as an advanced submarine base. So close to your West Coast CONUS-Hawaii transportation network that short-ranged RO boats and otherwise lesser capable submarines can be utilized here to interdict your shipping.

Sure, if you've got it, stick some search planes on it, but it's not going to kill you one way or the other.

[Bullwinkle58]

I agree. In theory Midway is all powerful, a floating observation/sub haven/surface raidin'/fortress of solitude.

In reality, by 1943, it's out on a LONG limb for the IJN. Subs? They have to get fuel and supplies there. (And you have more, and better subs close by to stop him supplying the island.) Easy pickings for the Allies. And, the Allies have LCUs galore, including four USMC full divisions that need combat experience. The Japanese take Midway, take it back. PH can surge immense numbers of CAs and smaller to bombard, escort, interdict.

By 1943 you don't need to worry so much that he knows you're coming west. As Chicken says, you can easily dogleg away where he won't, but even if he knows, so what? Bring it on. He's had his year. It's time for some pounding.

[Canoerebel]

From the perspective of a conservative Allied player, Midway in the hands of the Japanese is daunting, at least in Scenario Two. The prospect of going into enemy held waters to take on the KB in late '42 or '43 is frightening in the extreme, so most Allied players won't chance it. That gives the Japan that much more time with an excellent buffer. And it is hard to conceive of a move on Wake, Marcus, or Iwo with Midway in enemy hands. Essentially impossible until the Allies have carrier parity, which won't be until mid '43 or later.

So I must respectfully disagree with you lads. I would hate for Brad to take Midway at this point in the game. It would really trouble the Allies. For that reason, Brad should target it even if it wasn't of great benefit directly to him.

[Canoerebel]

11/14/42

India: 6th Guards/C Div. will evaporate tomorrow; 48th Div. moved a hex west off any road into a jungle/coastal hex. Is there any reason Brad can't use subs or amphibious patrol aircraft to lift these troops out? I'll get troops there to finish them off as soon as possible. In the meantime, aircraft and bombardment TFs will pay them a visit. To the south, an IJA remant stack aouth of Goa retreated after another attack.

CenPac: The Marcus TFs are NNE of Midway; the Wake TFs are a few days SE of Midway. Another picket ship will depart Midway, sailing NNW. Three CVE and one BB depart Pearl Harbor tonight. No signs of enemy detection. SigInt the past few days has reported a large TF of unknown type or composition making for Tokyo Harbor from the south. I don't know enough to even suspect it could be the KB. The IJN carriers could be anywhere.

SoPac: The Allied carriers are about two days ESE of Auckland. The Noumea invasion TFs will load at Auckland tonight.

Prepared to Strike: If the Marcus or Wake TFs stumble into the KB, I can proceed with the Noumea invasion. If they don't encounter the KB, the Noumea invasion stays at home. I'm not yet positive I'll actually move on Marcus. That island is way out there and would be impossible to hold long, but I'm weighing whether it would create some consternation in Brad and reinforce the notion that he had better be looking at CenPac and NoPac down the road.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

11/14/42

India: 6th Guards/C Div. will evaporate tomorrow; 48th Div. moved a hex west off any road into a jungle/coastal hex. Is there any reason Brad can't use subs or amphibious patrol aircraft to lift these troops out? I'll get troops there to finish them off as soon as possible. In the meantime, aircraft and bombardment TFs will pay them a visit. To the south, an IJA remant stack aouth of Goa retreated after another attack.

No. Try LRCAP if you can spare any. Maybe an ASW group? Don't know if either id feasible given your force deployments.

[Canoerebel]

I can handle LRCAP from adjacent Bombay. I'll see about getting some ASW there ASAP. Thanks.

[ny59giants]

Dan - Have you found a good choice for training in ASW amongst the British aircraft besides the Catalina?? I was thinking about the Wellington, what say you (or others on this thread)??

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Is there any reason Brad can't use subs or amphibious patrol aircraft to lift these troops out?

The Mavis H6K-L series is excellent for this purpose. They're not patrol aircraft so much as dedicated amphibious airlift with a range of >20 IIRC. Brad is likely working these overtime. LRCAP would be a nice little nasty surprise.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Dan - Have you found a good choice for training in ASW amongst the British aircraft besides the Catalina?? I was thinking about the Wellington, what say you (or others on this thread)??

Not that I play the Allies, but wouldn't the Wellington be RAF versus the Catalina RNAF or somesuch? Are pilots transferrable between these branches for the Allies?

FWIW as Japanese, I prefer Nell or Betty ASW training, so's to move these pilots into other IJNAF units. I'll also train up some IJAAF ASW pilots with Sallys or Lillys, but to a lesser extent.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

From the perspective of a conservative Allied player, Midway in the hands of the Japanese is daunting, at least in Scenario Two.

So I must respectfully disagree with you lads. I would hate for Brad to take Midway at this point in the game. It would really trouble the Allies. For that reason, Brad should target it even if it wasn't of great benefit directly to him.

Not speaking to your game, but in general . . .

My point is, don't let him have it, not it's not useful (I guess, for six months or so, in a limited way.) By 1943 Midway is in your front yard, not deep in any sort of Japanese area. Every bit of strategic and tactical balance is in your favor if he decides to try to take it and/or hold it. You can, with very little loss or risk, kill any land or sea forces he sticks that far out especially any supply TFs. By that date Midway is an order of magnitude farther east than his defense perimeter should be.

Anything he sends to Midway should die. Which is why I predict he won't go there, nor should he. He should be digging furiously on Kwaj, Truk, Ponape, Eniwetok, Saipan, and Iwo, not expanding his area or responsibility.