War in the Pacific as Planned--Allied

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: herwin

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Trust me, all comment will be made within the context of the combat model.

This situation is completely different than the vanilla description implies. in fact it deserves a screenshot!

Commentary:

Most of the units spread over the combat area are goo. I have a database of over 100 battles in China now, and it is clear that there is no advantage for China to concentrate its forces unless forced to (Nanyang) or the Japanese can't get there in time to intervene. If Japan can get 1-1 with a shock attack, it will win, and the game engine produces such widely absurd casualty numbers that the larger the Chinese force, the larger the Chinese casualties. There is no advantage to defending with a regiment in terrain that gives a 3x multiplier if all it does is lead the Japanese player to attack with a division rather than a regiment. Better to cover three hexes with battalions. So I break down any small to medium sized Chinese force to give me more goo. Rebuilding is very slow compared with the tempo the Japanese player can generate, so I don't wait for it, either.

I'm following this philosophy in the remainder of the map. I never garrison a hex with more than a battalion if I can avoid it, and I concentrate my offensive assets in deathstars. It's what the ground combat engine likes a lot and rewards. You want to minimise your gravitational entropy in this game.

Agreed. Add that, for the Chinese at least, Shock Attacks are often counterproductive. They have to be used at the right time. This is actually true even for the IJA forces, although they can get away with more. A Shock Attack at the right time is devastating to the defender. A Shock Attack at the wrong time is devastating for the attacker.

As to "There is no advantage to defending with a regiment in terrain that gives a 3x multiplier if all it does is lead the Japanese player to attack with a division rather than a regiment.": When the Chinese are able to defend with enough in the good terrain, IJ has to bring in so much that they leave vulnerabilities elsewhere. Those must be attacked so that eventually the menace of it reduces IJ adventures, gaining general stability in China.

Hence the mass of goo. My opponent uses a lot of whole divisions--I don't need to encourage him to mass any further.

[herwin]

Minor actions.

Fortifications at Nanyang rebuilt to level 2 and 35% of the way to level 3. A supply route to Nanyang is reopened by the Japanese. Time to ooze further.

[herwin]

Minor actions.

Example of standard Japanese operation. Why I use goo.

Ground combat at 87,57 (near Chuhsien)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 36628 troops, 324 guns, 97 vehicles, Assault Value = 1103
 
Defending force 11554 troops, 38 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 378
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 1080
 
Allied adjusted defense: 309
 
Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), leaders(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      3077 casualties reported
         Squads: 5 destroyed, 169 disabled
         Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 132 disabled
         Engineers: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      5036 casualties reported
         Squads: 143 destroyed, 62 disabled
         Non Combat: 107 destroyed, 80 disabled
         Engineers: 9 destroyed, 12 disabled
      Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Units retreated 1
 
 
Defeated Allied Units Retreating!
 
Assaulting units:
    17th Division
    22nd Division
    116th Division
 
Defending units:
    70th Chinese Corps

[herwin]

February 25/26 1942

Palembang landings begin, supported by four carriers and a CVL.

Seven shock attacks this turn, no deliberate or bombardment attacks.

Ground combat at Nanyang (85,45)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 68175 troops, 630 guns, 729 vehicles, Assault Value = 2131

Defending force 53175 troops, 272 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 888

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 1960

Allied adjusted defense: 488

Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Nanyang !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
     640 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 59 disabled
        Non Combat: 45 destroyed, 136 disabled
        Engineers: 4 destroyed, 8 disabled
     Vehicles lost 143 (41 destroyed, 102 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
     15127 casualties reported
        Squads: 758 destroyed, 82 disabled
        Non Combat: 662 destroyed, 131 disabled
        Engineers: 194 destroyed, 9 disabled
     Guns lost 36 (34 destroyed, 2 disabled)
     Units retreated 19


Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
   12th Tank Regiment
   8th Armored Car Co
   41st Division
   15th Tank Regiment
   27th Division
   3rd Tank Regiment
   23rd Tank Regiment
   37th Division
   36th Division
   10th Tank Regiment
   5th Armored Car Co
   5th Tank Regiment
   9th Tank Regiment
   110th Division
   35th Division
   11th Tank Regiment

Defending units:
   3rd Chinese Cavalry Corps
   84th Chinese Corps
   7th Chinese Corps
   90th Chinese Corps
   36th Chinese Corps
   41st Chinese Corps
   15th Chinese Corps
   9th Chinese Corps
   4th Construction Regiment
   39th Group Army
   22nd Group Army
   3rd Group Army
   31st Group Army
   14th Group Army
   1st War Area
   36th Group Army
   Jingcha War Area
   5th War Area
   10th Chinese Base Force

[witpqs]

Goo is fine. It's called cutting supply lines.

Defending Nanyang is different. In combat mode, units can withdraw from Nanyang in about 4 turns up that road. In move mode it's 2 turns. Keep that in mind when you are ready to go back there with a superior force and the shoe is on the other foot.

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Goo is fine. It's called cutting supply lines.

Defending Nanyang is different. In combat mode, units can withdraw from Nanyang in about 4 turns up that road. In move mode it's 2 turns. Keep that in mind when you are ready to go back there with a superior force and the shoe is on the other foot.

Ground combat and tempo are weird in WitP-AE. The casualty ratio (30% versus 1%) in this one attack never occurred in WWII even in the most one-sided operations. The tempo in this one attack (46 miles in one day) never occurred in WWII, even in the fastest moving operations. And there were 6 other very similar battles in that one game day.

[witpqs]

I believe it. The way I look at it is 'how well do the overall results represent the theater?' and, while still imperfect, it isn't too bad if you play it the AE way. You won't learn of refine much ground combat stuff in this, but look at the improvements over WITP - things like supply line vulnerability are much better modeled.

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I believe it. The way I look at it is 'how well do the overall results represent the theater?' and, while still imperfect, it isn't too bad if you play it the AE way. You won't learn of refine much ground combat stuff in this, but look at the improvements over WITP - things like supply line vulnerability are much better modeled.

Yes. However, once the shoe is on the other foot, my counteroffensive may still be accelerating when I reach Moulmein. With luck, I'll be in Singapore by land in late 1943. The game really rewards a marginal AV superiority.

The firepower duel typically doubles an initial AV superiority.

[herwin]

February 26/27 1942

Since the garrison is buried deep in rubble, Palembang surrenders.

[herwin]

February 27/28 1942

A good rule of thumb is that an airstrike by N one- or two-engined bombers will cause on the order of N casualties. If the bombers start doing better than that, I move the target units. It appears the IJA is currently concentrating on targets in Sumatra and China--that's fine by me. Meanwhile, I'm hitting targets on the borders of Burma.

Minor actions.

[herwin]

February 28/March 1 1942

No significant actions.

[herwin]

March 1/2 1942

Minor actions.

[herwin]

March 2/3 1942

Minor actions.

[herwin]

March 3/4 1942

Japanese recapture Chuhsien.

[herwin]

March 4/5 1942

Minor actions.

[herwin]

March 5/6 1942

The fast part of the KB shows up off Moulmein. Time to reallocate the local airgroups to naval strikes.

Invasion at Port Blair.

[herwin]

The fast part of the KB is hanging out off Moulmein. I'm redeploying as many aircraft as I can into South Burma to engage it. I outnumber him in the area about 2-1 in fighters.

The Chinese troops in Sinyang are finally ejected.

Port Blair surrenders.

[herwin]

Minor actions.

Nells going after HDMLs. I wonder if that's a bit of a losing proposition.

Medan falls.

No action against the KB as it heads south. There are about 100 Japanese aircraft now based in Moulmein in the midst of about 300 Allied aircraft including 200 fighters. This may be interesting.

[herwin]

March 8/9 1942

More minor actions.

[herwin]

March 9/10 1942

Minor actions.

The fast KB stands off Moulmein and does nothing.