Operation Barbershop - Carnage(Ax) vs. Redmarkus(Sv)

[Redmarkus5]

[/quote]
I think they're meant to represent the attempts to build the fortified lines after the failing of citadel, otherwise known as the Panther-Wotan lines

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panther-Wotan_line

They much like the Hindenburg fortifications were to be constructed behind the lines and then fallen back onto. STVAK had other ideas and overran the limited fortifications in the south.
[/quote]

Thanks. Yes, I understand that they represent those lines. My question was do they represent engineering efforts to build the defenses or combat units to man the defenses? If they are combat units, then where in the historical OOB do they fit?

[Redmarkus5]

ORIGINAL: DTurtle

ORIGINAL: redmarkus4

True, but a 6/1 ratio for the Soviets in '41 and '42 is still good vs. the historical. I would ignore the prisoner numbers as the Axis has not taken large numbers of PoWs since summer '41.

Thanks for spotting the computation error. The graphs were correct, but the table was not. It's now fixed.

Oh, no question that your offensive is hurting him. I was just trying to point out at looking at the raw numbers gives an inaccurate (too positive) picture of the effectiveness of your offensive. The Germans lose somewhere around 50k-80k per turn just to attritional losses from the blizzards (though this lessens later in the winter), while the Soviets lose only about 5k-8k per turn from the blizzard (numbers taken from 2ndACRs AAR as it involves no combat during Blizzard). Its only the losses that go over and above this that are caused by your offensive. So, you would have to subtract roughly 500k to 700k or so from the German losses, and roughly 50k or so from the Soviet losses.

This means that your offensive caused somewhere between 300k-500k German losses, while suffering about 950k losses. So the overall exchange rate caused by your offensive is somewhere between 3:1 and 2:1 - with the additional note that even then most of the casualties caused were disablements, while the vast majority of casualties suffered were men killed.

Again, this is not to say your offensive is not working or somehow counterproductive, I just think it is better to have a more accurate view of the effectiveness of that offensive.

Sure - I do agree. I hope I don't have an unrealistically positive view of the impact my attacks have had. In assessing them, I tend to compare them to the historical result (rather than to other AARs, as I play quite differently from most) and factor in the ground taken as well as the losses. Every hex I go west is another hex that Carnage has to go east

[Redmarkus5]

TURN 37 - SMOLENSK

Smolensk has been liberated on the last Blizzard turn. This city will now be at the heart of my defence line.

[Redmarkus5]

Conclusion of the Winter counter-offensive '41 to '42 showing the original operational plan and the final extent of the advance.

[raizer]

great job in getting that city-that is a nice jewel
I think you played a good game as well.  Playing kinda dumb like the russians did in the beginning and then pouring it on a bit after the mud season.  One thing I havent seen from you during this long blizzard is the status of your air force?  How big is your horde air force and Im curious to know how many IL2s you have.  I think the soviet airforce, along with your better rifle/cav and guards will have the potential to break the axis early

[Redmarkus5]

I have been building my air force right through the winter and moving my air units up just behind the front. I'll post some stats next turn, but I have a large number of IL2 and modern fighter units, as well as several long range transports and a fleet of level bombers. However, I messed up on the last Blizzard turn and forgot to change the doctrine settings, so Carnage has a free turn in which he can fly with zero opposition...

[Senno]

Very nice winter offensive. You almost split him in two over the Prip Marshes. Well done.

[Redmarkus5]

ORIGINAL: Senno

Very nice winter offensive. You almost split him in two over the Prip Marshes. Well done.

Thanks. I am interested to see how strong the Axis forces will be in '42. For me, this is the key test of the game. If they cannot drive me back to the Volga, then I will have to conclude that the Soviet army is too strong in-game, so let's see.

[Fetrik]

A well written, informative and exciting AAR. Keep it up.

[Q-Ball]

Red, what is the forces count right now for each side? Curious about that, since the Testers are benchmarking all the games right now.

[Smirfy]

ORIGINAL: redmarkus4

ORIGINAL: Senno

Very nice winter offensive. You almost split him in two over the Prip Marshes. Well done.

Thanks. I am interested to see how strong the Axis forces will be in '42. For me, this is the key test of the game. If they cannot drive me back to the Volga, then I will have to conclude that the Soviet army is too strong in-game, so let's see.

Great AAR but I think the caveat should be if you come out and play in the Spring and the Germans dont give you a good fight then the Russians are too strong. Blue without Timoshenko's and the catastrophic Crimea debacles things would not be just so rosy[;)] Your opponent attacked eveywhere and continued his offensive long after any decisive results could be achieved and as you anticipated. Momentum without destroying loads of units or capturing key cities just puts your head deeper in the noose.

[randallw]

Maybe it is not that the Soviet Army is too strong, but the blizzard is too hard on the Axis.

[Redmarkus5]

ORIGINAL: randallw

Maybe it is not that the Soviet Army is too strong, but the blizzard is too hard on the Axis.

Or not hard enough on the Soviets... As I indicated, we can't make a judgement until we see what the Axis can achieve in '42 after the rebuild. I know that as I haven't destroyed a single Axis division, they should be able to recovery quite quickly.

[Mynok]

It's the experience loss that destroys the Axis infantry, not really the manpower. I'm very interested in seeing the changes post-patch.

[Redmarkus5]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Red, what is the forces count right now for each side? Curious about that, since the Testers are benchmarking all the games right now.

Once I get the turn back I'll post those stats as well.

[Redmarkus5]

ORIGINAL: Mynok


It's the experience loss that destroys the Axis infantry, not really the manpower. I'm very interested in seeing the changes post-patch.

To be honest, even with my plodding linear defence, I never really felt the kind of pressure in '41 that I expected. Leningrad was cut off, but none of my other major cities on the Moscow-Rostov axis were seriously threatened. It's obviously a hard thing to judge, but the Axis need to be able to make a credible push to the gates of Moscow if they keep attacking the way my opponent did...

[Redmarkus5]

No offence intended to anyone out there, but I was speculating about what Stalin's LinkedIn page would look like if they had LinkedIn back then

[randallw]

Did your CVs improve during the blizzard turns?  That seemed to happen with me, first time through it.  It seemed as if Soviet soldiers are from an alien planet, and gain strength from the cold.

[Smirfy]

ORIGINAL: redmarkus4

ORIGINAL: Mynok


It's the experience loss that destroys the Axis infantry, not really the manpower. I'm very interested in seeing the changes post-patch.

To be honest, even with my plodding linear defence, I never really felt the kind of pressure in '41 that I expected. Leningrad was cut off, but none of my other major cities on the Moscow-Rostov axis were seriously threatened. It's obviously a hard thing to judge, but the Axis need to be able to make a credible push to the gates of Moscow if they keep attacking the way my opponent did...

The otherside of hill is interesting your opponent and alot of AAR followers felt like the Germans in Barbarrossa half way through the result was felt to be a forgone conclusion, What your linear defence apart from make people over confident encouraged was very shallow encirclements which is not optimal with a 17 turn deadline

Your opponent was at the gates of Moscow at September and got cold feet by his own admission from the AAR. What people forget is that Typhoon was launched with 3 out of the 4 Panzergruppe. The Axis players tend to dissapate their strength along the front and then expect 41 results. You cannot expect the German player to win using a strategy more akin to Eisenhower than Guderian. You have to ask yourself 1/ Can the German player afford to waste a game turn of his Panzergruppes nevermind 3 when he is on a deadline, 2/ Concentration of force is a must for the German player and 3/ There must be a decisve goal. Unfortunately your opponent played to your strengths

[Redmarkus5]

ORIGINAL: randallw

Did your CVs improve during the blizzard turns?  That seemed to happen with me, first time through it.  It seemed as if Soviet soldiers are from an alien planet, and gain strength from the cold.

I saw some increases, but not huge. the average attack value for infantry divisions was only 2 or 3, with a few 4s as well. Tank Brigades are pretty useless in the attack. I had to stack three deep to get a total CV of between 8 and 12, with an occasional stack with CV 15, but even then the second echelon of units had very low CVs - everything of value was in the front line. I never had overwhelming force and could not create a break through.

The situation is clouded due to the appearance of converted Guards divisions and the fact that sub-unit attachments are also increasing at the same time. In fact, if you look back through the AAR, you will see that I had already started making a few successful attacks before the snow fell, even pushing back a Panzer division at one point. So, I think the Soviet forces were gathering strength anyway.

As I say, the key question will be the Axis recovery. We can't really make a judgement on Soviet blizzard strength until we see Axis summer '42 strength.