Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

You're not far away from the 3/43 apa conversion date.

Well, you will then have about 20 in 3/43, but no AKAs yet and never enough LSTs. About enough to transport a division and a half. Everything else will have to go on XAPs. The key to an operation like this is that you have to get your troops and supplies ashore fast, then take a key base or two before he can react with KB and LBA. Remember we are talking about a pretty intact IJN here. Scen 2 allows for a lot of conversions and earlier arrivals. I had a carrier fight in 3/43 and was dealing with a lot of CVLs and CVEs that I did not expect to see.

In addition we had a couple of big, inconclusive carrier fights and even though neither of us lost a big carrier, my carrier operations were over for three months as I was totally out of fighters and SBDs. At 20 per month the SBDs do not come back very fast and I could not offer any offensive threat until the SBD5 came on line in mid 43. It really is his last best chance to knock the Allies back. I am trying to think like he should, so a lot of this is spectulation. However, if he brings everybody to the party, the Allied fleet is going to have a serious fight, and the Sumatra operation will require a lot of fleet and carrier support.

7/43 might be a better time for a big operation as you will have the sealift for about three divisions then and can expect some carriers to arrive soon to replace any losses. By 9/43, baring serious losses, the Allies have plenty of quality invasion worthy ships.

[Canoerebel]

crsutton states his case persuasively....

[whippleofd]

crsutton states his case persuasively....

OTOH: Operation Citadel and the Panther.

Whipple

[Canoerebel]

Oh, I haven't changed my mind. I was just complimenting crsutton on making his case very well. He raises additional points that I need to consider most carefully when I engage in my self-evaluation of my Sumatra plan.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

crsutton states his case persuasively....

I know I am repeating myself but you are locked into WiTp thinking about what the Allies are capable of at this point in the war. Unless you find a way to seriously attrit the Japanese forces between now and then, you are playing into Brad's hands by acting too boldly too soon. I think if you make a more serious move into the New Hebrides you will both create that opportunity to attrit the Japanese and pin down his resources.

If I may point out: with the IJA's withdraw from India, the attractiveness of the Sumatra op has decreased considerably.

[Canoerebel]

Tim, thanks for your thoughts.

Man, I was TOTALLY locked into WitP mode in my first game of AE with Miller. I was caught totally offguard by the differences between Scenario Two AE and WitP.

I may still be laboring under those misunderstanding to some extent, but not as much as you might think. Sumatra has been my objective since December 7, 1941. I've spent the entire game planning this operation because it parks the Allies right in Japan's vitals. So India didn't factor into the equation one way or the other, though it would have been cool if I could have expedited Sumatra to effectively isolate the Japanese army in India. But opportunity and ability did not coincicde - invading Sumatra in 1942 would, in my opinion, be pure suiciidal folly against Q-Ball.

I will probably invade Noumea within a month, though I'm still evaluating everything. I don't think Brad is willing to stick his neck out so far to defend the base, but I'm not certain. I think Brad wants the Allies to throw everything into the long, step-by-step campaign needed to take Noumea then Luganville then Lunga etc. That's as far from his heartland as I can possibly be. I think he's far more interested in protecting the DEI and New Guinea.

[vettim89]

AT the least you need to "demonstrate" in force on the right side of the map. Just commit enough to make Brad think that's where you are moving. With his Indian adventure, you have to figure his force struture is unblanced toward the left side of the map especially with his Av Support and engineers. You need to tilt the table back to the right as much as possible to give the Sumatran op its best chance.

[Canoerebel]

Exactly! First, through SigInt I am monitoring his reshuffling as carefully as possible. Second, all Allied activity is (and has been) designed to give the appearance of a mounting threat in NoPac, CenPac (Wake), SoPac (Noumea) and SWPac (Horn Island and NW Oz).

[Cribtop]

CR,

FYI I tried to respond to your PM but your box was full. No worries and good luck!

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the heads-up, Cribtop. I've cleared some space.

[Igel]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel.............Second, all Allied activity is (and has been) designed to give the appearance of a mounting threat in NoPac, CenPac (Wake), SoPac (Noumea) and SWPac (Horn Island and NW Oz).

If I were your opponent i will immediately suspicious of your intentions [:D] You're a bad guy [;)]

Pd.: Great AAr, a lot of ideas, plans & stategy discussions. Thank you.

[Canoerebel]

11/30/42

Thank You, Dear Reader: Thank you Igel, and all the rest of you, whether you dropped in once or come by more often, for all the kind comments and words of encouragement.

India: The Allies took Comilla and Cuttack against light opposition that was easily brushed back. The big army advancing on Calcutta should make the river crossing in three days. I don't expect the three units there to be able to hold the base. I'm having a bit of trouble getting supply to new forward bases, especially Trivandrum and Madras. That is limiting me a bit, but it should get worked out pretty soon. Tomorrow, the Chindits will try to take two dot hexes on the railroad that leads from the interior to Comilla, Chittagong, etc. That should open that route up to supply and reinforcement. Brad is landing 4th/A Div. at Akyab.

Oz: No sign of IJ awareness of all the Allies units in and around Daly Waters. An IJ sub sank an xAK off the cape south of Perth - I'll have to be careful with my Exmouth invasion ships in that area. The Allied carriers refueled at Hobart and will move SSE before radically changing course to the west. An IJ sub is hanging around, but I don't know if Brad has picked up the carriers yet.

Wake Island: Two supply xAKL will arrive tomorrow, though they may not be received nicely. The Allied effort here is hanging by a thread, but as long as there is that thread I'll try to work things out.

[SuluSea]

If you invade Sumatra I'll be here daily reading, but I have to agree it's a bold plan but too risky of an operation considering the assets both combatants have at this stage. You smashed his Indian invasion troops you could lose the initiative with a failed Sumatra invasion and considering the state of your gator navy I'd say it's a pretty good bet that will happen.


----------------> getting my popcorn ready just in case[:)]

[Canoerebel]

Sulu, I'm reading you guys. I'm hearing you guys. The lineup of "that probably aint the brightest idea I've heard" proponents is impressive and growing.

Just for the record, I will continue to plan the Sumatra operation. The question is when it will be implemented. The soonest possible date is late March of 1943, which is nearly four months away. I think the latest possibility would be October 1943, because after that winter would shut down the Kuriles, the location of my major feint.

I think I can do it...but every time I come up with one of these nifty plans it devolves pretty quickly into an ugly affair that leaves everyone involved feeling pretty sullied.

[paullus99]

LOL - actually, if you can hit multiple bases simultaneously & create a pretty good lodgement, it will be hard for him to suppress your newly-won airfields. The key will be to not take any half-measures, but go in with the maximum amount of force in the shortest possible timeframe.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Sulu, I'm reading you guys. I'm hearing you guys. The lineup of "that probably aint the brightest idea I've heard" proponents is impressive and growing.

Just for the record, I will continue to plan the Sumatra operation. The question is when it will be implemented. The soonest possible date is late March of 1943, which is nearly four months away. I think the latest possibility would be October 1943, because after that winter would shut down the Kuriles, the location of my major feint.

I think I can do it...but every time I come up with one of these nifty plans it devolves pretty quickly into an ugly affair that leaves everyone involved feeling pretty sullied.

Hey, I don't know if it will work or not. But the date you cite is the biggest problem that I see. You will be much better off with at least some assault shipping, and by that date you will have just above squat. A bit arrives before then, but the first of the conversions occur in 3/43. That last bit means they have to get done and then get in place for you to use them. So, my only criticism is that your 'soonest' date is too soon for that.

[Canoerebel]

Nein! The late March date was selected for that very reason. All of my APs that convert to APAs are (or soon will be) located in Melbourne. They will upgrade beginning March 1, so I think I could invade as early as late March (though it might take longer considering the length of the journey).

[witpqs]

OK - you got the timeline down! BTW, more convert in June, but the longer you wait might be worse.

[Canoerebel]

Here's a revised and updated general outline of my plan:

1. Feint towards NW Oz (Brad will be waiting for this move).
2. A day or two later, feint towards the Kuriles (he should be waiting for this, too).
3. At same time as two, feint towards Rangoon or Port Blair (these ships will then be used for the real invasion of the Andamans, as set forth below)
4. At same time as two and three, feint towards Horn Island and/or Port Moresby, including paratroop drop on a vacant base like Terapo (the feinting ships will then be used for a real invasion of Horn or PM, as set forth below).
5. Massive invasion of Sumatra including Cocos Island and several islands just off Sumatra's south coast. Mostly Americans and Australians involved. Major targets are Padang, Benkoelen, and Lahat, plus three or four of the islands offshore.
6. Invasion of Nicobars and Andamans and some small islands off western Sumatra (possibly to coincide with Sumatra or following a day or two later). Mostly British and Indian units involved.
7. Secondary invasion in SoPac (Horn Island or New Guinea) - perhaps a week later
8. Secondary invasion in CenPac (perhaps in or near the Gilberts) - perhaps a week later.

Number three, the feint towards Port Blair or Rangoon, won't require additional shipping since the vessels will then be used for the actual Nicobars/Andamans operations.

[Cribtop]

Be careful that feint number 3 doesn't get him looking in the right direction at an inopportune time. Make sure you leave enough time after feints 1and 2 that he has steamed Combined Fleet out of position for Sumatra.

FWIW, I concur that Sumatra is a high risk/high yield move. However, I encourage you to do it. What's the point of every game featuring the same old Allied thrust at Timor, eh? Easy for me to say as it's your pixeltruppen on the line, not mine.