Winter again

[PeeDeeAitch]

So as not to fill up extant AARs, I thought perhaps a dedicated discussion to Axis tactics in the first winter might be useful.

I know Comrade P and Bletchley_Geek have had some good things to say about this, I have tried at times.

My basic concern is still that people are trying things that should not work and getting upset when they do not work. I have only played 2 games through the winter against humans, but the key to both was my experimenting with towns, layers of defenses, not coming out into the open (if I could) until later in the winter, some forward (in cities/urban) of panzer reserves), and pushing as hard as I could before blizzard to be able to trade space for time in december.

I think a general discussion of what does work, or at least works perhaps slightly better (wink), might be useful.

[PeeDeeAitch]

The motive behind this thread is not to point out whining, or anything like this, but rather a(nother) place to speak of winter skills, etc. My basic point is that it is still very, very early for most of us players in this game, and to pronounce things like winter irrevocably broken makes little sense to me. Given that there are patches coming all the time, this is doubly true.

I expect, in a year from now, to have a more seasoned (sorry, pun) look at the 1st winter. I do know that some things do not work, other things have worked, and there are many, many things out there that I have not tried that others see and try. My problems have been voiced, I do not like the ability of mass Soviet coordinated assaults, but that is not about the Germans surviving in winter.

Lastly, and this is a historical musing here, we see lines on the map for positions of corps and armies - often at the start of the Winter Offensive and at the end, but reading more operational and tactical accounts one sees a lot more fluidity between these periods of lines being drawn. One problem earlier in the game/betas was the too great of strength of the Soviets by winter's end, and the too weak of morale of the Germans - a situation that did not allow this fluidity to rebound in the German favor at winter's end as happened historically.

My point here is that winter needs to be a whole view as well, not simply the "bad times" for players. In my last game this past weekend, I saw my opponant have some better attacks, and he drove me harder in some places, but I learned some things as well and to my suprise I was more successful in rebounding (in part due to the beta 3/4/5 changes). The replacements I saw in January and Feb, my more forward use of a couple of panzer corps based in cities, and a new plan for mountain troops I gleaned from this forum made things a bit better. The "recovery" in March also seemed better.

[karonagames]

My basic point is that it is still very, very early for most of us players in this game,

This is a very valid point. It took me 4 tests to get anywhere near the historical front lines on December 1 1941, so I could only really measure the impact of the blizzard once I could achieve that.

As I noted in another thread, players might "waste" less time if they played the 25 turn Barbarossa scenario before embarking on a full campaign, to hone their attacking skills so they know they can enter the blizzard from much better starting positions than we are seeing at the moment.

[PeeDeeAitch]

I am old and grumpy, I hate to think I am an newbie in anything. Besides dealing with hazmat for the University here, I teach a class in Western Civilization to young kids and I am supposed to know everything.

Ok, I don't. I am learning. I have 3 vs AI games in winter and 2 vs Flesh and blood. I am learning, albeit slowly, but I now know enough to realize how much I do not know...

I refuse to make full blown pronouncements about winter until I have a year of this game under my belt.

[Q-Ball]

It would be very helpful if someone would post, in detail, how they are dealing with the winter, and show results in terms of losses and territory. Kind of a "Winter AAR".

I haven't seen a reasonably successful winter defense yet in any AAR. Can someone do one please?

[PeeDeeAitch]

And I realize I am speaking to myself here, but what the hell - I lecture 3 times a week to a class of bored freshmen.

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

If the answer is that the Soviets won't make the same mistakes vs. history in the Winter Offensive, AND won't make the same mistakes in the Summer of 1941 for that matter, maybe the answer is simply that the Germans cannot reasonably expect to make Historical progress.

If that's the case, then the adjustment needs to be to Victory Conditions, because the only realistic prospect is for the German player to play "not to lose"

Perhaps the mindset here needs a change. The Germans do not have to be locked in to historic mistakes.

One answer might be, perhaps, not to stop the offensive in September and dig in (does not work), but maybe some "Herr Feldmarschall Robin" themselves. Going all out through the first or second snow turn, leaving a screen far in front of what will be the line, and pulling back 1-2 hexes each turn the first month of Blizzard. Sure, ground is given, but the 1st and worst month of blizzard becomes less a problem. I would think this would work best in the "soft, chewy center" of the line where the Axis do not have cities or often men to really be in depth.

The worst thing one can do is exactly what the Soviets want from them, a nice broad front in close contact that can be chewed through steadily all winter - raising morale of units and meatgrinding the Germans.

Again, just thoughts.

[Pipewrench]

ORIGINAL: PeeDeeAitch


I refuse to make full blown pronouncements about winter until I have a year of this game under my belt.

is that a year in gametime ie:1941-1942 or 1 full year of your life?

If your patience extends out 365 days then you are 1 cool cat![:D]

[color]

I still have to test this theory, but I think Germany's biggest enemy (at least during 41/42 winter) is the high losses suffered from loosing damaged elements when retreating.

The high attrition means forced retreats should be avoided when possible to avoid the crippling german infantry losses forced by the retreats.
This makes me wanna try a special scenario with a somewhat dubious strategy,

Let's dub it the 'rubber band' strategy.

Basically it means trading a space, at least during 1941 and partly january 42, for a stronger force and renewed offensive once summer 42 comes.

... In theory it would mean that during blizzard, I would step back one hex from the frontline, whenever I think there is any danger of my troops being forced to retreat. 2 hexes from the frontline I would put 'sacrificial units' in checkerboard fashion (one every two hex) meant to be attacked by russians, and at three hexes behind this a solid line with strong units, among other my panzers.
This last line is meant to hold attacks from russians trying to advance past the 2nd hex advance, and to counter attack weak spots in his line and force retreats/routs on his forces. I get the impression damaged elements do not get lost when on the attack so you don't risk anything by attacking.
Give my next turn I then repeat the same over again.

So the idea is to not loose all those attrition damaged elements due to forced retreats, but to ride out the winter with these damaged elements intact in the units and recovering when exiting at the end of the blizzard period. In theory it means German forces will come out quite strong on the other side, ready for months of renewed offensives.
The disadvantage is that you will probably have traded a lot of territory back to the russians during the blizzard, appallingly much probably!

The big what-if is that with most of his '41 force intact, if the german can repeat some somewhat his successes from 1941. Most probably the pursuing russian forces would have been to busy in pursuit to try to dig strong defensive lines (which would have been at the expense of their advance) .. so the lost territory shouldn't be too hard to recover.

So you end up with a very fluid front line pre blizzard and post blizzard and then again hopefully summer '42 ... hence the rubber band name, you tense your 'rubber band' back allowing the russians to advance, and then once weather favours you again, you release the built up tension and snap the rubber band back into place so to speak [:)]

Gonna be fun to try, also to hear your comments on such a strategy . . . .

[CharonJr]

The only thing to help the Germans during the winter I have seen so far is trying to penetrate really deep and destroy as many rail lines as possible, then retreat towards prepared positions, thus forcing the Soviets to face some supply issues if they want to attack.

A bit like what color described above, but I would pull back more hexes than just 1 since besides losses from retreats attrition losses from being in contact with enemy troops hurt a lot as well during the blizzards.

edit: In addition getting Leningrad to activate the Finns seems the most important thing to survive the blizzards in reasonable shape, since they will not only give you blizzard troops, but allow you to concentrated the remaining Axis troops along a shorter frontline and thus having more units in towns/cities (which the defensive lines should be build around IMO).

[Encircled]

Its territory for time

The further east you get, the further west you can pull back

Defensive "hedgehogs" around cities are good in theory, but unless its basically mountain troops, it will be in danger of encirclement with three turns of the Russian arrival at the "hedgehog", and fighting for cities your revitalised army will capture in the summer of '42 seems a bit pointless

Massive fortifications in the open/swamp/forest/rough are good for defence, but attrition will knock your divisions down to 5,000 men over the course of the blizzard, though I understand that this will recover a lot quicker with the new patches.

Keep your Panzers nice and warm in the cities, and only counter attack if its essential, and use Mtn troops with stugs if at all possible

Once the blizzard stops, fully refitted Panzer divisions that have spent months resting will go right through exhausted and low supplied Soviet forces

Someone has suggested sending the entire Luftwaffe to national reserve, and bringing them back just before the blizzard ends, but I haven't tried that myself (yet!). It certainly sounds like it might be an excellent idea.

[EntropyAvatar]

I think it makes sense if the airpower isn't going to play a major role during the blizzard, to move the units to reserve, and even get those airbases out of the zone. Air bases and HQs have a lot of personnel, and they take blizzard attrition losses like everyone else.

[color]

One thing that never got any clear to me regarding blizzard attrition - do they exclusively convert to damaged units in the same unit which you loose when fighting or moving, or do you actually lose permanently some of the attritioned elements? I got the impression they only convert to damaged units, but did not check this in detail.

[color]

ORIGINAL: CharonJr

A bit like what color described above, but I would pull back more hexes than just 1 since besides losses from retreats attrition losses from being in contact with enemy troops hurt a lot as well during the blizzards.

Yeah, I am a little bit unsure if 1 hex is enough.. but I'm going to try it at first, since movement during blizzard is much more restricted, and I am guessing infantry divisions won't have enough MP's to move two hexes and then make a prepared assault. The cavs & tanks will have enough MP, but the hope is that they will crash into the stronger Hex 2 defensive line and get stopped with heavy losses.

[NinetyNine]

I, too, will try the front-wide pullback during the blizzard, but even at 1 hex per turn you're going to give up... 130 miles of distance(13 turns for blizzard?). If it's more than 1 hex per turn required, you'll end up in the sea if you retreat west from Leningrad... And you'll still be battered by attrition losses during the retreat. Not sure if that's going to work out well.

[Klydon]

Good to see this thread and hopefully we can come up with something like what happen with the opening moves. Unfortunately, this is going to be far harder to crack since multiple turns are involved and the game actually has to be played to that point to start working on a solution. On top of that, it is going to have to be a PvP game because the AI isn't going to cut it on either side compared to what a human can (and would) do.

Some things that have been roughly discussed are the line backer strat and also the checkerboard. I don't believe either will work effectively or consistently well for the Axis for the winter. Checkerboard may help from the standpoint that the strong points of the checkerboard are in cities/towns, but otherwise it is far too easy to get behind the lead units/take heavy losses from stacks of units making deliberate attacks. Linebacker depends on essentially a double line of units and potentially reserves. Part of the issue with it is that it leaves a huge percentage of units out in the elements and it is also subject to having the Russians launch just a ton of hasty attacks, forcing defenders to constantly retreat, which brings its own issues.

I think one of the things that might help folks who are interested in helping out with this is if we can get a saved game up with both sides as human players and have it be a turn or two away from blizzard. I don't have one that fits that criteria, (or even close to it).

[Tarhunnas]

Here is a word on Winter effects by no less an authority than Marshal Zhukov. This is from a STAVKA conference on 5th january 1942, where Zhukov advocated concentrating attacks on the western front.

On the Western axis, where there is the most favorable set of conditions and the enemy has not yet succeeded in reestablishing the combat efficiency of his units, we must continue offensive operations...
As for offensive operations by our forces at Leningrad and on the South-Western axis, then it must be pointed out that our forces face formidable enemy defences. Without powerful artillery for support they will not be able to break through the enemy positions, they will be ground down and suffer heavy, not to say unjustifiable losses. (quote from Erickson: The Road to Stalingrad)

Zhukov was overruled by Stalin, the offensive was extended to the entire front and failed in most areas. Apparently, Zhukov hadn't played WITE. Stalin apparently had!

I think this quote says it all about winter effects. Forts should help the axis!

[2ndACR]

Well, I am on turn 23 in my newest game against Kelblau. So we will very soon see what happens. I am not holding out much hope.

[Klydon]

Part of the secret is in what Zhukov mentions in that a lot of Russian units were short (or missing) artillery in the winter of 1941. Many German fortifications held because the Russians didn't have the heavy guns to disrupt them. As it stands right now in the AARs I have seen, I don't see where the Russians are missing much of anything since it is pretty much a given that the vast majority of games will not see the losses the Russians historically suffered due to better Russian play. I also don't know how the game mechanics work in regards to fortification bonuses and what it takes to overcome them, although one would assume that artillery and engineers help play a key role in the reduction of fortifications. 

[2ndACR]

Forts mean nothing during the blizzard. Except for maybe turn 26/27. After that, the attrition has your divisions down to 1-3 CV and even in level 4 forts your going to get creamed bad. I have seen a few holds, but usually only once. After that it is all she wrote.

I have spent a couple winters in Germany, 1 in Korea, 1 in Alaska, 1 in Afghanistan, 2 in Iraq and have seen some god awful temperature's. But I also know that even in Alaska, I can sit in my bunker with a unzipped jacket on and be very comfortable (portable stoves rule). I know that even in 1941, dug in troops would have fires burning, overhead protection, door covers, and anything else to survive. Even on guard duty in the trench, they would rotate 15 out and probably 45 in.

[Encircled]

I don't have anything to compare with that! (Cadet force training on Dartmoor is as far as my military career got!) but I imagine that a exhausted German infantry division (after five months of fighting), short on equipment, winter clothing and under constant harassment from the Soviets (even if they had bunkers) would suffer quite badly, even in level 4 fortifications.

I think the blizzard is perhaps a bit too strong, but the German player has to push East as far as he can to be able to give up a lot of territory. Its going to be a real struggle in the north (unless Leningrad falls) as you just don't have that territory to give up.

Does someone have the time to actually work out the best line (ie maximum town benefits and shortage frontage)?