Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

[witpqs]

@LY - FYI the automobile industry in the US was all dedicated to war production after a certain date to the duration of the war. I'm sure somebody somewhere will find a reference that somebody made a new car or few, but basically AFAIK there were no new civilian automobiles from some early war date until war's end. Of course, consumption of rubber, et al was enormous and spurred the development and manufacture of alternatives as imports from the DEI were no longer available.

[JWE]

Ok, so here's my basis and also my dilema.

Oil:
Japan (and a few 'elsewhere' places) produces 2,250 Oil; DEI/Burma produces 30,000 Oil. Now, Oil is not used for ANYTHING, except as an input to Refineries.

Refineries:
Japan (and a few 'elsewhere' places) has 1035 Refineries; DEI/Burma has 2330 Refineries. So the tendency will be to 2/3 of Oil production right where it is, thereby requiring squat for tanker tonnage to move it.

Refineries produce Fuel and Supply:
Japan (and a few 'elsewhere' places) produces 9315 Fuel and 1035 Supply; DEI/Burma produces 20970 Fuel and 2330 Supply. So they are entirely self-sufficient and any HI in those areas just dump HI points into the pools, so there is a completely self-sustaining economy going on, in which ONLY EXCESS "Fuel" needs to be transported to Japan to run the marginal differential HI. Who gives a rat where the Fuel comes from, and who gives a rat where the HI points come from: if there's a completely functional economy happening in DEI/Burma, then screw Japan's requirements, she'll get what's left over. DEI/Burma becomes the gas station and supply center for anything and everything happening South of Hong Kong. The Japanese Home Islands become marginalized to the extent the SRA is secured.

HI:
Japan has 6170 HIs that require 12,340 Fuel (and 123,400 Res) and output 12,340 HI Points and 12,340 Supply. Other places (Elsewhere and Capturable) have 980 HIs that require 1,960 Fuel (and 19,600 Res) and output 1,960 HI Points and 1,960 Supply. Clearly, the "Other" places have all the Fuel and Resources they need for full output, so again the Japanese Home Islands become marginalized to the extent the SRA is secured.

The only requirement for Japan is to import the marginal Fuel and Resources necessary for airframe and engine factory requirements "over and above" those already being put into the pools by "Other" places, so again the Japanese Home Islands become marginalized to the extent the SRA is secured.

LI:
Didn't feel like adding up all the ants, so just using Spideys numbers, Japan has 7900 LIs that require 118,500 Resources and output 7900 Supply. Other places (at game start, and NOT including anything Capturable) have 980 LIs that require 19,600 Resources and output 1960 Supply, i.e, 9340 LIs that require 140,100 Resources and output 9340 Supply in toto.

Since the native and capturable HI and Refineries produce 14,670 Supply, and generates it in places that are closer to the front, one wonders why one should ship resources to Japan to feed the LI machine. Indeed, one wonders why they shouldn't turn off the Japanese LI machine altogether.

So:
Only things that have to flow are Fuel (in decreasing quantities as areas are captured) and Resources (also in decreasing quantities, just not as bad). So the initial imperitive of capturing someplace and bringing the goodies home, is no longer valid. And the initial concept of using the merchant fleet to bring those goodies home, is no longer valid either.

Ciao. John

[witpqs]

Crikey!

[inqistor]

ORIGINAL: vettim89
Going back up to Treespider's post about steel production as it relates to in game HI: it seems HI is out of balance. Instead of seeing the Japan player stressed for HI by mid 1944, we instead are reading numerous Forum posts about stockpiling HI to the level of a million points or more by 1944. Obviously that concept is completely out of kilter. So perhaps what truly needs to be adjusted is the amount fo HI avaialble.

There is other possibility, that requirements for HI usage are too small. It is used in: pilot training, armament, and vehicle points, merchant, and naval points, planes, and engine production. Either some of those should require more HI points, or Japan players routinely turn off some of them, in which case production is too large.


Anyway, tinkering with input numbers do not seem to increase transport requirements by much (except tankers, but they are tight already). If code change is not possible, I see easiest solution in simply reducing capacity of transport.

[Bradley7735]

So, reduce refineries outside of HI and increase refineries inside HI? Or start all/most DEI refineries as damaged?

I remember seeing "tips to play the Japanese" that if you want to ever increase heavy industry, do it at Singapore, not in the HI. JWE's post above clearly states why you would do that (and to deny strategic points in the end game.)

[Nomad]

ORIGINAL: vettim89

JWE touched on this but the fact that oil production and refineries nearly match 100% in the SRA is perhaps off the historical model. If sufficient refinery capacity existed to convert all the oil in the SRA to usuable POL products, why did the IJN resort to putting unrefined Borneo light crude into fuel bunkers in late 1944. Something seems out of whack here. I wonder if there is data out there that can tell us a breakdown of how much SRA crude was refined locally vs exported as crude for refining at the end destination. My guess is that a significant portion was exported unrefined.

The truth of the matter is that Japan was desparate for fuel as early as late 1942/early 1943. The game doesn't seem to create such a stress on IJN operations so quickly. Something is out of balance

Probably one thing to look at is the amount of damage the facilities took in RL and compare that to what seems to be average( not sure how to determine this ).

[oldman45]

Using nothing more than a WAG, seems like the best bet would be to raise the inputs for industry so there is a demand for the transportation of supplies to the home islands. Another option which I would assume is a code change, not allow HI outside of the home islands contribute to the pool. Nobody built airframes or engines outside of their home country that I am aware of.

[inqistor]

Well, there is quite large NATE factory at Harbin (Manchuria). And I think, there was also substantial armament production at that terrain.
Also, Manila produced quite a lot armament for Japan, after capture.

[JWE]

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Crikey!

I was thinking of something a bit more scatological, but Crikey! works for me.

It's a bit more of a bitch than the above would suggest. All them little LI things, require a poopload of Resources. If one can eke out enuf Supply from the local "economy" and not need the Japanese LI to source Supply all that much, then all the Resources that go into Japanese LI can go away. One can shut down the Japanese LI engine entirely and rely on 'Other' Supply sources, till - gosh, who knows when. All them ships that don't have to haul "stuff" are sitting there waiting for the transport orders (not using fuel or anything else) to go invade frikkin Brazil!

It's all in the concept. And it's all in the abstract. I mean it's in frikkin Woof! territory; all bets off and how big are your bollards.

Wish I had any kind of solution, but I don't; everything is so inter-related and has been calculated, by Andrew, down to the gnat's a$$, that tweaking one thing will get you a six legged cat and turn your wine into vinegar. Woof!

Spidey is pretty smart, and Andrew chimes in on some of the more interesting conversations. So, as Jack Nicholson said in 'Mars Attacks', "you still got two out of three branches of the govt working for ya, and that ain't bad." We'll do our best. Ciao. J

[JWE]

ORIGINAL: inqistor
There is other possibility, that requirements for HI usage are too small. It is used in: pilot training, armament, and vehicle points, merchant, and naval points, planes, and engine production. Either some of those should require more HI points, or Japan players routinely turn off some of them, in which case production is too large.

Anyway, tinkering with input numbers do not seem to increase transport requirements by much (except tankers, but they are tight already). If code change is not possible, I see easiest solution in simply reducing capacity of transport.

No it is not. If you do not understand what is under discussion, and know nothing about the algorithm, I would appreciate it if you would remain in your main-forum world and not annoy us any further. Thank you.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: JWE

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Crikey!

I was thinking of something a bit more scatological, but Crikey! works for me.

Yeah, just keeping to the family oriented nature of things. If Japan has to ship very little then it's still an interesting game but the strategic analogy to WWII in the Pacific is minimized. Those two are smart guys - let's see what they come up with.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: JWE

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Crikey!

I was thinking of something a bit more scatological, but Crikey! works for me.

Yeah, just keeping to the family oriented nature of things. If Japan has to ship very little then it's still an interesting game but the strategic analogy to WWII in the Pacific is minimized. Those two are smart guys - let's see what they come up with.

I think that is the essence of the conversation. AE "out of the box" is a great game. The economic model that is included for Japan works which considering the depth of this conversation as far as looking at all the factors is truly nothing more than astounding. That said, perhaps with some tweaking it would be better at presenting players with some of teh problems the RL people had to solve. Likewise, some of the issues with the Allied side include far too generous supply alowances at war's start and especially in India, far too much local supply being produced in on map areas. So the desire becomes to tweak the model to make everybody spend more effort supporting baseline efforts. This would in theory effect game play limiting both sides offensive capabilities (Japan early and Allies late)

Again, this not for non-grognards or people that like to see Japan flying jet fighters off of unbuilt CV's at the games end (that was deliberate hyperbole)

[treespider]

Houston...we have a problem.

Did a quick and dirty scrub down of resources For Japan and the various regions...after Yokel's concerns...

Using 1941 as my base line in comparison with Scenario #1-

Manchuria in game produces 29,600 resources daily or 10,804,000 yearly and consumes 13,700 daily or 5,000,500 yearly leaving a net difference of 5,803,500 points/tons available for export to Japan.

Occupied China in game produces 13,200 resources daily or 4,818,000 yearly and consumes 8,800 daily or 3,212,000 leaving a net difference of 1,606,000 points/tons available for export to Japan.

Problem is Occupied China exported over 4 mil tons of coal to Japan in 1941...far more than the 1.6 mil available in game.

It appears that Mainland Asia is under-represented resource wise. By my calculations Manchuria should have roughly 3500 resource centers as opposed to the 1480 in Stock-AE.

Likewise Occupied China should have should have close to 5,0000 resource centers vs...the 660 currently. Korea is also light....

Those numbers could be fudged with .... the industry in those areas is already operating at full capacity resource wise ...so additional resource centers would not tip the balance in any way other than to provide more resources available for export to Japan.

As it stands per Tracker 1.7.1

Stock AE Scenario 1
At Start Resource Production -
Japanese Small Islands - 400
Ryukus - 800
Sakhalin -10400
Korea – 13800
Formosa – 3400
Manchuria – 29600
China – 13200
Indochina – 6000
Total = 77,600

At Start Resource Consumption
Japanese Small Islands - 300
Ryukus -0
Sakhalin -600
Korea – 9200
Formosa – 1200
Manchuria – 13700
China – 8800
Indochina – 1300
Total = 35,100

Production – Consumption = Total Available for Export to Home Islands
77,600 – 35,100 = 42,500 available for export to Japan

Japan has a 44,500 point daily deficit to make up which translates to 16,242,500 points yearly.

So all of the excess RP in those areas described above still cannot offset the deficit in resources.

To implement my mod I will need to increase the resource centers in Manchuria and China to offset the balance.

I want my available resources for import yearly to equal if not exceed 20,000,000 points as I plan on creating a 20,000,000 point demand in Japan.

Using my earlier algorithm...

With Treespider’s Changes
At Start Resource - Production
Japanese Islands - 400
Ryukus - 800
Sakhalin -10400
Korea – 13800
Formosa – 3400
Manchuria – 29600
China – 13200
Indochina – 6000
Total = 77,600

At Start Resource Consumption
Japanese Islands - 400
Ryukus -0
Sakhalin -800
Korea – 9350
Formosa – 1600
Manchuria – 15,000
China – 9400
Indochina – 1500
Total = 38050

Production – Consumption = Total Available for Export to Home Islands
77,600 – 38050 = 39,050 available for export to Japan

HOWEVER I need this figure to approach 55,000 which means I need to account for an additional 16,000 RP a day in potential production. 16,000 / 20 = 800 Resource centers

I think I can divide 800 resource centers across existing centers in Manchuria and Occupied China.


WOOOF!

[Nikademus]

I'm still of the mind that a quicker (albeit dirtier) and easier solution is to reduce transport capacities for the produced supply/resource/oil to account for it's abstract nature vs. trying to recalculate the entire Japanese industry + tweak the Allied industrial base. Such a reduction would require more tonnage/assets to do what players do now and make the assets needed to move them more scarce and vulnerable to interdiction.

[vettim89]

Great job TS. I wondered if that may be the underlying cause - RP underrepresented and resource inputs being concurrently underdemanding. Up teh resource demand coupled with increased production and merchant fleet is a lot busier.

[treespider]

ORIGINAL: Nikademus

I'm still of the mind that a quicker (albeit dirtier) and easier solution is to reduce transport capacities for the produced supply/resource/oil to account for it's abstract nature vs. trying to recalculate the entire Japanese industry + tweak the Allied industrial base. Such a reduction would require more tonnage/assets to do what players do now and make the assets needed to move them more scarce and vulnerable to interdiction.

Problem with that approach Nik is it messes with unit Load Cost Algorithms...

With the route I'm choosing I change 5 numbers in Industry matrix the editor and add 800 resource centers to the existing 2100 in China/Manchuria.

[treespider]

ORIGINAL: vettim89

Great job TS.

Thanks

I wondered if that may be the underlying cause - RP underrepresented and resource inputs being concurrently underdemanding.

As AB pointed out the "team" decided to underrepresent demand by 20% or so as not to "break" the system.

Up teh resource demand coupled with increased production and merchant fleet is a lot busier.

Essentially that is what i doing...except I am also further differentiating HI and LI.

Now that I have tracker up and running perhaps I can look into more depth on how this will affect India.


INDIA -
Stock AE assuming adequate fuel
64,000 RP produced 59,200 RP consumed 5900 supply produced

Treespider's Mod
64,000 RP produced 62,250 RP consumed 4080 supply produced.

Supply just got tighter in India.

[vettim89]

I think supply needs to get even tighter in India. There was a famine in India that is listed as lasting from 1943 to 1945. Some of the references I read seem to indicate that it actaully started earlier but was only recognized in 1943. The fall of Burma which was a major supplier of rice to India was a major factor in worsening the situation in India. Point being that India should have a tremendous demand for civilian imports during most of the war. Being as the game doesn't really do a great job of modeling the symbiosis of the civilian/military economy, I would propose an even more drakonian reduction of India based supply production (perhaps even, gasp, to 0)

[treespider]

On to Fuel...

What does a Fuel point roughly equate to - ton, barrel, kiloliter, gallon?

I forgot.

[JWE]

ORIGINAL: treespider
Houston...we have a problem.

Uh ... Roger, Capsule; Confirm problem; Uploading 762M lines of code to your on-board systems; Can you identify the particular system causing issues?

Uh ... Roger Houston, Capsule confirms upload. Uh ... Houston, ... uh ... issue is ... uh ... if we can't read thru all that stuff fast enuf ... uh ... can we pee in our suits?