ORIGINAL: BigAnorak
60 hexes x 13 turns is 780 hexes divided by a 120-130 hex long front line means that the front line will move west 6 hexes on average.
Quite a simplified calculation. Did you read the Q-Ball's AAR? His front is collapsed and he is in complete retreat, losing I don't know, perhaps 20-30 hexes along the line. Gaps opened are so huge Sovs exploit and whole front needs to be rearranged etc. I don't want to be his mouthpiece, do see his AAR. And if anyone did his Axis homework it was him. Oh in fact I think I did my homework even better than him but since I didn't write AAR I use Q-Balls as "Oleg AAR lite". [:D] Go read Q-Balls AAR then add 20-30% to his advances and factory captures and that's pretty much my AAR.
BTW 66 out of 70 is 94% success rate. I didn't keep notes for Axis first turn, but I bet it's not far from that. That's the first turn of blizzard attacks on most rested troops and their best prepared positions (mostly level 3). The following turns, with attacks on troops in the open, damaged by attrition, can only be worse.
Those are sustained attacks on units who suffer retreat losses, combat losses PLUS attrition losses. By turn 7-8 of my own blizz experience as Soviet I was literally walking thru ACRs defence at will. It didn't feel right but I thought that's because ACR didn't do his pre-winter homework. Now I see that no amount of homework will help, it just does not matter.
In March the Axis can make 60 attacks per turn for 3 turns and take back 1.5 hexes on average. Net loss 4.5 hexes - 45 miles. How many AARs have shown how well the Axis recover in March and how much territory they can take back?
Again, very simplified. By march what Axis sees is usually a wall, or several walls of level 3 forts without any supermen rules to help them. Just for the record, I would NOT like to see any help for the Axis.
In fact I am fed up already with "supermanism" in this game for both sides. It's just that the current "hate list" of supermen is topped by "Sov Winter 41 supermen" but IMO "German summer supermen" follow closely. Up to March 42 we have two waves of supermen from both sides, broken by a period of "Superman Mud", just so that the results can be tweaked to (kinda sorta) follow history but in fact they just invite abuse! That's two periods of blatantly one sided play, that only Flavio apparently thinks can be broken with counterattacking.
Discussions and debate on changes to the first winter rule are ongoing, and it looks like Speedy may well be the guinea pig for testing any changes - poor guy!
Good to know, but since you seem to talk about beta testing board, we cannot comment until you let the cat out of the bag.