ORIGINAL: Local Yokel
Thanks! It did seem to me that something was amiss with what was coming out of Manchukuo and N. China in particular.
OK, now we have a basis for assessing what the impact on Japanese shipping might be.
An increase in Japan's daily resource imports of 16,000 points translates to about 3.42 extra Aden Maru class ships (loading 4,670 resources apiece) landing their Manchurian/N. Chinese cargoes in Japan each day. My Dairen-Moji shuttles seem to average a round trip in between 7 and 8 days inclusive of loading/unloading. Therefore, 3.42 extra ships times, say, 7.5 days = 25.65 rounded to 26 extra vessels being required to carry the additional resource load.
In my testbed variation of BabesLite (in which I've made no changes that would affect these calculations) I've been running 4 such shuttle convoys between Port Arthur (Dairen) and Moji(-Shimonoseki). Each contains an average of about 19 vessels (all Adens). I'm attaching a composite image from Tracker showing the 40 day history of resource stockholdings at Dairen and the sailing pattern of one of the shuttles - in this case DM-4. Damn, those Moji stevedores work like demons!
I think this may be an apposite image because from what I can tell every mainland resource point east of Hankow that doesn't get grabbed by local industry gets sucked remorselessly to Dairen by the game's land transport mechanism - hence Dairen, rightly or wrongly, is a really good place to observe what is happening to mainland resources. And the pattern seems to be that within 3 days of the campaign's start all surplus resources have congregated at Dairen for onward transport to Japan. The image suggests that, with 77 ships applied to that transport task in four convoys, the glut is being reduced at a rate such that no surplus will remain to be lifted within 10 to 20 days, after which I estimate that up to half the ships currently dedicated to this Dairen-Moji shuttle can be released to other duties (to the Marquesas, Brazil and beyond!). If that's an accurate assessment, then finding an additional 26 vessels to lift the extra 16,000 resources becomes something that my existing arrangements would simply take in their stride.
Very... very... very... interesting....and as a result I think we now have the source of all EVIL...which causes me to go back to the drawing board so to speak.
So we have a Cargo TF with a "capacity of 93,400 "points" able to shuttle essentially 93,400 x 5 = 467,000 points between Manchuria and the Home Islands in a 30 day period based on Local Yokel's post.
The Japanese measure of vessel efficiency was a factor called "kakoritsu." This factor was computed by dividing actual cargo carried (in metric tons) in a given time period by the cargo-carrying capacity of ships in use during that period in that particular service.
- The War Against Japanese Transportation, USSBS Report 54, p.51
So from what I see the Kakoritsu factor for Japanese ships in game is essentially 5 on the Manchurian Run, meaning they can carry 5x there capacity in a given time frame.
The USSBS reference gives the Japanese a Kokritsu factor ranging from 1.4 in early 1942 to .8 by 1945.
So Local Yokel's ships are essentially 3.8 times more efficient than the IRL Japanese. On the assumption both Local Yokel's and the Japanese load ships in Manchuria and return empty to Manchuria.
Now that I feel I have the base line numbers accurate, Local Yokel's post and this reference will change the equation.
One alternative suggested is to reduce the Cargo capacity of ships to address this dynamic. I feel this messes with other routines...So my new solution is to redefine the Resource point.
As JWE likes to point out a resource point is a point or it could be a ton , or a bunch of stuff....all of my calculations were based on tons.
So lets include a shipping efficiency factor in the equation and redefine our resource point. From the above it appears that the Japanese are 3.8 times more efficient than their IRL counterparts.
To account for this the transition is very simple....Resource Centers produce 3x to 4x more stuff...and Industry consumes 3x to 4x more of the stuff. So depending on which factor you choose a resource point is now 1/3 to 1/4 of a ton...and your ships are no longer as efficient at using their true potential.
To "err" on the side of caution lets use 3 points. I'm going to triple resource center production...while at the same time triple Industry resource point consumption.
So copying my earlier analysis...
Stock AE:
LI Input - 15 RP
HI Input - 20 RP
LI Output - 1 Sup
HI Output - 2 Sup, 2 HI
Japanase Home Islands (Daily)
LI - 7900 - Req. 118500 RP - Produce 7900 Sup
HI - 6160 - Req. 123200 RP - Produce 12320 Sup
Total RP Req. = 241,700
Res Cntr - 9770 - produce 195400 RP
Shortfall = 46300 RP/day = 16,899,500 RP/yr
Total Supply produced in Home Islands = 20,220
My NEW suggested changes - where a reource point = 33% of a ton
As stated eliminate supply from refineries
EDIT: Because the Civilian Economy is encompassed by the economic model HI and LI should not be "shut off".
Mod AE:
LI Input - 60 RP
HI Input - 45 RP
LI Output - 2 Sup
HI Output - 0 Sup, 2 HI
Japanaese Home Islands (Daily)
LI - 7900 - Req. 474000 RP - Produce 15800 Sup
HI - 6160 - Req. 277200 RP - Produce 0 Sup
Total RP Req. = 751,200
Res Cntr - 9770 - produce 586200 RP
Shortfall = 165,000 RP/day = 60,225,000 RP/yr
You can make up the 4420 pt supply difference produced in the Home Islands with daily allotments if you feel these are necessary...
As a result of the change Japan would have to transport in roughly 3.5 times more resources...
So returning to Local Yokels TF ...it was bringing in 467,000 points every 30 days...Stock AE requires 46,300x30= 1,389,000 points every 30 days. With this change Japan needs 4,950,000 every thirty days...or 3.5 times more shipping capacity.
Wonder if the game engine can handle these numbers.