'Rubberband' Blizzard Defence

[2ndACR]

Does not matter what he does, or tries. He might as well start railing his troops back to Germany to save them the pain. You will crush him. Blizzard is screwed.

[Tarhunnas]

ORIGINAL: Michael T

I congratulate Color for putting his brain in gear and trying to nut out a solution. Rather than the standard 'its broken' approach. Perhaps if Soviet losses were maximised before the blizzard this kind of strategy might just work.

I don't agree. On the contary, us discussing this kind of obviously historically unimaginable strategies based on number crunching the oddities in the game actually proves the winter part of the game is broken as a historical simulation (the other parts are very good in my opinion, I must emphasise). An interesting experiment by Color, but these kind of tricks are more about playing the game to absurdity, however odd its concepts, than simulating the eastern front in WW2. If we think of this as a solution, we might just as well be playing sudoku.

[color]

I agree that whatever results come from this experiment is not necessarily going to represent a simulation of history or a historically viable strategy.

It is purely an attempt at really understanding the complex game mechanics that generate the current german blizzard rout, and a search for a way to maximize the German moves during blizzard in order to get out on the other end in a somewhat orderly fashion, hopefully in a position to actually do something significant in '42.

My goal will be met if this results into some much needed insight into the game and lead to people better working with the system as it is now.

Once the experiment ends and hopefully has revealed some very useful information about the game mechanics, then we have some solid data & understanding which could be used as base for statements about the current state of the blizzard game mechanics.

The developers have their reasons for making the game like it is now.
Given all the thought that has gone into the game in every aspect I don't think the blizzard had ended up by chance as it is now.
I'm keeping an open mind and trying to really understand if there's a lesson for us to learn about reality buried somewhere deep in the system.

Or maybe there isn't any.
In which case if this helps tweak game mechanics, it would be an added bonus.

[2ndACR]

Don't know about that. Big Arnok posted he is seeing issues in his test game with Speedy too. I think something got borked along the way by accident.

[color]

ORIGINAL: 2ndACR

Don't know about that. Big Arnok posted he is seeing issues in his test game with Speedy too. I think something got borked along the way by accident.

I totally see the point of something being broken by accident.

Let me rephrase myself as I see now my initial statement is confusing : " ... I think the developers put a lot of thought into the blizzard and a lot of the way it is now is by conscious design. They didn't just throw together something by chance."

Of course this experiment together with everybody elses experience might help shed some light onto if some parts of that design accidentally got broken or not.

[Klydon]

ORIGINAL: Marquo

Color,

Much thanks for your ingenious analysis of how to defend in the blizzard. One grows weary of the wails and sniveling of those who claim that the game is broken because of the blizzard. To quote from Glantz, "When Titans Clashed:"

1. "AGC suffered the most. By January, thinly clad, shell-shocked and disoriented troops tended to panic at the mere sound of approaching Soviet tanks."
2. "AGS, which was designated to conduct the main German attack in 1942, brought its units up to 85% of authorized equipment only by forced transfers from the other two army groups."
3. "The German Army lost more than soldiers and vehicles, it had suffered a sever blow to its morale. Most of the surviving veterans realized they were committed to an open-ended, bitter struggle in an alien land."

Moral effects too harsh? Not. Losses of material too harsh? Not.

This game has much depth and many of us have only just started to scratch the surface; I refered my pbem opponent to this thread so he can start to prepare for the upcoming blizzard; I will update you.

Again,

Much thanks,

Marquo

Provided you don't use some of the suggested self imposed limits in your game, be sure to come back here and post after you get tired of kicking the crap out of your opponent during blizzard.

I don't consider the game "broke"; just that the winter of 41 needs some work for both sides. Anyone keeping up with the AAR's and other threads would see there is certainly a issue. If you still don't believe that, then I refer you to BigA's comments about his test game with Speedy, another tester.

BTW, the Germans do pay a price in moral for the winter with a lowering of their base national moral.

Sorry to have "fatigued" you with more wailing and sniveling.

[mmarquo]

"Sorry to have "fatigued" you with more wailing and sniveling"
 
[>:]
 
 
"On the contary, us discussing this kind of obviously historically unimaginable strategies based on number crunching the oddities in the game actually proves the winter part of the game is broken as a historical simulation..." 
 
What is unimaginable about rotating the weakest, most disabled units out of the line to minimize losses? Number crunching? Broken as a simulation? Are you serious or was this merely sarcastic?
 

[2ndACR]

Rotating the weakest? Man, that is the entire German army by turn 5. Every single div will have a whopping 7000 troops or so and be unready by turn 6.

There is no rotation. You just cannot do it. By turn 5 of the blizzard you are faced with destruction in battle or doing a full tilt bug out for Germany to save what you can.

That is turn 32 when you really see the German Army vaporize. You will watch the Russian army conduct 75+ attacks each turn, 80% of those will succeed in a German retreat. No matter what your fort level is, the Russian will slice right thru your defenses with ease.

There is no rotation.

[color]

ORIGINAL: 2ndACR

Rotating the weakest? Man, that is the entire German army by turn 5. Every single div will have a whopping 7000 troops or so and be unready by turn 6.

If you define the weakest in the scenario I'm testing now as the division which has the most damaged elements, then a rotation actually seems to work.
When I select the divisions to take the brunt in the first line of defence I always choose whichever has the least damaged elements. The assumption is that they are not going to hold anyway.
I don't pay much attention to strength numbers as usually I have to be very selective.

As of mid jan '42 I'm seeing many german infantry divisions at 2 CV strength, and I'm starting to get more and more hold results. Of course I try to be very selective about what to do, but with the help of panzers coming out of winter storage the line is actually holding up in some select places. (I'm being attacked all over the line) Infantry does not yet alone have the strength for me to choose to stand, and I'm unsure if that will change until snow & mud starts to return. They do get several hold results at improbable odds now though.

For now, when forced to retreat I can usually inflict the same number of casualties as the russians inflict on my troops including retreat attrition. I.e. 1000 - 2000 casualties on both sides.
Troops in the second line usually hold when attacked, even though it does seem pretty close sometimes. And when they hold the russians suffer 3-4k casualties. Best of all, those casualties are mostly inflicted upon his tank & cav troops, which are about the only ones that can do determined assaults on the second line. So this strategy is making his best offensive troops bleed the most.

Will post a new status report once I reach february.

[Oleg Mastruko]

ORIGINAL: color
As of mid jan '42 I'm seeing many german infantry divisions at 2 CV strength, and I'm starting to get more and more hold results.

Where's that? Around Warsaw or Dresden? [:D]

I assume you+re playing vs AI which usually just bulldozes it's way forward with no real concept of flanking and exploiting. That way, indeed, 13 turns of blizz may turn into Big Anorak's optimistic projection of front moving 12-14 hexes.

However human is smarter, he won't use your weakness to just bulldoze, he will brutally exploit, encircle, cut off, flank and go deep, pushing you far far more than 12-14 hexes, killing your units along the way.

[saygame]

I applaud your scientific, numerative and inquisitive approach, color, to understand underlying game mechanics in approaching solutions for the Axis to the '41 blizzard. Only when we understand cause can we effect alternative solutions. Bravo to you for presenting an advocacy for learning!
I have spent much of the last two days reviewing the ongoing and (sometimes muted) emotional debate in the AAR forum regarding the '41 blizzard game mechanics. Whether it correctly tracks actual and potential historicity as intended by the devs or not, your treatise will help them to explore. I find it humorous how heavy an influence that emotion and gameside playing experience play in judging this game design as accurate or not. And so I heartily endorse your approach to deal with what currently is and, more importantly, to foster understanding of the design.
As Panama astutely observed earlier, there are historical certainties we can change in gaming and others we cannot when we investigate history. Both Soviet and Axis players have huge advanatages that accrue from knowing original conditions and results ("Monday morning quarterbacking"). Original errors made by the participants, such as Stalin or Hitler, require a conscious design decision by the devs as whether to try and enforce their replication or allow the player to craft their own reactions to what is now known and heavily analyzed history. The game design system seems to me to allow, in different areas, a little of both.
I, for one, wish to explore what if Hitler had allowed a mass retreat in view of Axis failure to prepare in logistics and training for a protracted winter/spring campaign. How might that alternative path chosen alter German and Soviet Army configurations in 1942 for continued operations? Anecdotally I suspect, it seems somewhat likely that massive fortififications (without much limitation) that the game design allows alongside reduced Soviet winter offensive casualties might overtly harm offensive Axis chances in 1942. But I speculate and digress.

I think any potential problems with what is WAD and what is not will come from such astute observations as Panama's in conjunction with your results and also Anoroch's game testing. Your investigation will help open a pathway for the devs to see if the outcomes of their design matches their intent and then tweak it, if necessary, to more closely align their design with their intent, as authors, for this game. Meanwhile your rubberband approach seems an enlightened methodology to cope with what currently are game design mechanics and to understand what the game design is attempting to model for us. Your defense can address the latter (the Soviets) but not the former (weather) while potentially yielding a result that could moderate Soviet ground gains achieved.
So far, your data seems to imply that the design emphasis is on a "General Winter" functioning as the dominant Axis adversary followed closely by a Soviet Army that is able to heavily amplify weather's effect. This amplification by the Soviets may be a tad overstated in the design given rather unrestricted Soviet abilities to conduct entire front-wide offensive and logistical operations in the face of the beatings it had so recently sustained in fall '41 but, of course, that is debatable.
Again I applaud such investigations on your part. And yours are particularly presented with such clarity. I am also duly impressed with your command of English as well. Wish I spoke Norwegian.
So do carry on! I look forward with anticipation to what you discover.

saygame

[color]

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko

ORIGINAL: color
As of mid jan '42 I'm seeing many german infantry divisions at 2 CV strength, and I'm starting to get more and more hold results.

Where's that? Around Warsaw or Dresden? [:D]

I assume you+re playing vs AI which usually just bulldozes it's way forward with no real concept of flanking and exploiting. That way, indeed, 13 turns of blizz may turn into Big Anorak's optimistic projection of front moving 12-14 hexes.

However human is smarter, he won't use your weakness to just bulldoze, he will brutally exploit, encircle, cut off, flank and go deep, pushing you far far more than 12-14 hexes, killing your units along the way.

All over the map, from north to south, except the German minor allies units of course

You raise a very valid point. This might work against the AI, but I really feel uncertain if it is doable against a human. I would really much like to see anybody's experiences using this strategy in a human vs human game.
Anyway it will surely provide some insight that help people make smarter choices when confronted with similar situations on a smaller scale.

[PeeDeeAitch]

I plan to lose my game against a human trying something along these lines. Check my AAR for results.

[color]

thanks for your kind words, saygame [:)]

I've been using english as a work language for many years and in some cases been working with companies from the USA.
That really helps to master the english language [:)]

[bevans]

Purists would argue that working with US companies will help you with 'American', not necessarily English.

[Mynok]

If by 'purists' you mean 'Englanders', yes.

[Senno]

ORIGINAL: PeeDeeAitch

I plan to lose my game against a human trying something along these lines. Check my AAR for results.

Same here. But I am not writing an AAR.[:(]

Maybe Oleg will write an AAR and put my pithy comments I e-mail to him between turns into it?

"From Blitzkrieg to Sitzkrieg" by Senno, working non-title.

Hey PeeDee, my troops all stopped at the kitsch shops in the baltic states and refused to advance. Any advice?

[PeeDeeAitch]

I have none. The damned Soviets swamp-shops are evil. All the spare reichsmarks were spend on leg-shaped table lamps and hula girls with clocks in their bellies. It was a nightmare.

[Q-Ball]

I would like to see some examples of Winter Defenses against HUMANS.

I think the current Blizzard is fine vs. the AI; sure it wasn't pleasant, but I was able to bounce back. The AI needs some extra "Help".

Humans don't, though......

[Mynok]

It's worth some AI time just to make sure that some of the bugs are fixed. That's why I'm doing one.

I plan to try a human game once they put out some betas with some tweaks to the balance so they can get some feedback.