Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar

[IdahoNYer]

And those partisans in the NW corner of the last screen shot....


They need to be dealt with [:@]

[IdahoNYer]

Further south, the Orel-Bryansk Salient still looks to be a tempting target once the ground freezes. Although there are signs of the beginnings of a withdrawal, he's got a long way to go.

I still need to bring up infantry to have any chance of success - 4th Army needs to relieve 2nd Pz Grp so it can thrust SE. 6th Army infantry is now moving up after reducing the Sumy Pocket. 1st Pz Grp is refitting NW of Kharkov, less 10th Pz left as a reserve behind 17th Army.

Both 17th and 11th Army, continuing the front to the Sea of Azov, have transitioned to the defensive - just short of Stalino.

The two Rumanian Armies fail to push into the Crimea before the mud, now it is probably too late until spring.

While a late snow offensive brings much risk, the shear size of the Bryansk-Orel Salient makes it a must-do. Not only for the potential of severly weakening the Soviet's ability to attack in the blizzard, but the necessity of reducing the frontage due to the westward bulge in the front.

[IdahoNYer]

The second half of the summer offensive, begun on turn 11 with "Operation Shark" to cut off Leningrad, has gutted the Soviet bear. Huge pockets were achieved not only with Leningrad, put also Poltava near the Dnieper and Sumy near Kharhov by AGS, and the huge Vyzama Pocket by AGC. Still the Soviets field a sizeable army, and the German forces are "stretched"...

German troops are on the edge of Moscow - and Soviet industry did not evacuate east! So, close.....

The question is, can the Russian Bear recover and is it still a threat come blizzzard????

[IdahoNYer]

Casualties as of 16 Oct.

[IdahoNYer]

Forces available - the Soviets are under the 4 million mark. Probably the only time I'll see that!

[timmyab]

Here's an idea to try and help you bag that pocket, kind of deception plan if you like.Take your armoured and motorised units away from the front line in that area and park them in non-open terrain not too far away.Then take a third of your force and split into regiments and place them a fair distance away in open terrain somewhere that a panzer army might be thought to pose a threat come the snow turns.The surprise element will more than make up for the loss of a third of your strike force for one turn.If he can see armour massing at the jaws of that pocket he'll either heavily reinforce them or withdraw.All this is assuming that your opponent does much recon of course.

[IdahoNYer]

I'd love to do something just like that - except I few problems. Infantry is moving up to relieve the panzers very slowing due to the mud. With the mud, I'm reluctant to move the panzers much at all - but will pull them out of the line when the infanty arrives. The best I can offer in deception at the moment is building fortification units along the lines - hoping Scar takes these as an indicator that I'm putting the blizzard prep into effect.

[timmyab]

ORIGINAL: IdahoNYer
The best I can offer in deception at the moment is building fortification units along the lines - hoping Scar takes these as an indicator that I'm putting the blizzard prep into effect.

Good idea.
This might sound a bit crazy, (probably is), but how about pulling back to the river line in the north of that salient and manning it exclusively with infantry regiments.You can then withdraw the panzer army to the woods around Kaluga for the mud turns.That might well be enough to convince him that you've no intention of trying to close that pocket this year.Obviously keep hold of Tula in a big way.Would also be your primary jumping off point in the North.

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 20, October 30th, 1941.

Front lines have been basically unchanged since the start of the mud. Neither side in position to launch anything but local attacks. Scar has made some forays between stretched units, which have been largely contained. Only in the far north has he been able to move some forces as a Finnish Corps withdrew, leaving some gaps. Teaches me to stay more aware of withdrawals! This Soviet nuisance up north has forced me to break up 18th Army - one Korps remaining garrisoning Leningrad, another Korps moving to backstop the Finns, one Korps going to AGN to reinforce 4th Pz Grp and the first Korps detached, now part of AGC's 4th Army. 18th Army itself will remain near Leningrad.

9th Army was re-assigned to AGN, largely remaining in place in the line.

Scar has stopped pulling back from the Orel-Bryansk Salient, which 1) streches 2nd Army and AGC and 2) still provides much opportunity once the mud ends.

Infantry continue to move toward the line from eliminating pockets, but progress is slow with the mud. I continue to employ fortified units as APs permit.

Plans remain to conduct a limited, but aggressive, snow offensive. 4th and 3rd Pz Grps will attempt to take Moscow. However, the main attack will be to eliminate the Orel-Bryansk Salient. That will involve 2nd Pz Grp supported by 4th Army, attacking from the Tula area, and 1st Pz Grp supported by 6th Army, attacking from the Kursk area. Unlike the Shark Offensive toward Leningrad, I will not use the HQ supply buildup as my vehicle pool is getting too low. AGC is not ready yet, still has infantry to bring up. AGS's units are set, but rail repair needs to come up further.

This will be a risky attack - it will delay getting the panzers out of the line and into the protection of towns/cities for the blizzard. Without the offensive, I will have to pull back from a number of exposed Salients - both north and south of Moscow, as well as Tula and Kursk. I'm not prepared to give up those hard won areas just yet.

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 21, November 6th, 1941

The frost has arrived!! Ready or not, it is time to resume the offensive! Unfortunately, with the mud, we are not as ready as I would have liked. Infantry released from Leningrad and eliminating the Vyazma Pocket is still marching to the front.

Against Moscow, without signifant infantry, I can not hope to attack east to first isolate the city. This will be a grinding, squeezing of Moscow defenses. Not the best place for panzers either. As infantry comes up, they will take the burden of the fight, hopefully allowing me to pull the panzers off the line and into reserve before blizzard.

Both 3rd and 4th Pz Grp make moderate gains - nothing to exploit with armor, but steady progress closing in on Moscow against level 2 and 3 fortifications. L Korps should arrive shortly to the fight with additional infantry. As this is not the main attack along the front right now, XL Pz Kps was dispatched south toward 2nd Pz Grp. This was a tough call - it could tip the balance if committed properly, and committing it south may in fact save Moscow (until next summer anyway!).

[IdahoNYer]

Just to the south of the attack on Moscow, the main German winter offensive begins to cut off the Orel-Bryansk Salient. Mud also affected the preparations here as infantry did not come into the line before this turn to relieve part of 2nd Pz Grp.

AGS was better prepared, with 1st Pz Grp pulled out of the line and resting near Belgorod. 6th Army infantry was not fully in place, but it was close enough when the frost hit.

With the advent of snow, regardless of preparation, the attack needed to start. I seriously thought about holding off a turn, but with variable weather, I'm running out of time, and perhaps luck, with each turn - I needed to launch with what I had.

In doing so, 2nd Pz Grp attacked with only XXXXVII PzKps and some supporting infantry. XXIV PzKps had not been relieved and was still oriented northeast of Tula, holding the line. XL PzKps moved south, but could not commit, nor be re-asssigned to 2nd Pz Grp. With those limitations, I was very happy to have gained 30 miles through heavy level 2 fortifcation defenses.

The welcome surprise was that the initial attack by XXXXVI PzKps was VERY successful, blowing a clean hole through the lines which its own Das Reich and GrossDeutchland could exploit. Through this gap, XXXXVIII PzKps turned east, widening the breach and began its advance on Voronezh. III PzKps followed, moving between the other two PzKps to widen the corridor to 2nd Pz Grp. Though very stretched, a corridor was established, isolating the estimated 50 or so Soviet forces in the Orel-Bryansk Pocket.

Now comes the tough part - maintaining this corridor - which I expect will be severed in the Soviet turn. So perhaps, re-establishing the corridor. Which is certainly do-able with the uncommitted XL and XXIV PzKps as well as additional infantry moving up. The real question is whether the weather will cooperate. Even once the corridor is firmly established, it is going to take a number of weeks to reduce the pocket - and before that is done, I'm sure the blizzard will be in full swing.

I really don't think there was a choice here - eliminate the Orel-Bryansk Salient or pull back to shorter lines. At this stage in the war - pre blizzard - I'm not inclined to pull back hard won ground. Sound familiar???

[cookie monster]

It's like taking candy from a baby...

With respect...Has it not just turned into counter shoving by now?

[IdahoNYer]

Gotta love variable weather!!!! Here it is, turn 23, November 20th and instead of a blizzard, General Mud appears to save the Soviet cause!!!

Mud brings a halt to all operations except the reduction of the Orel-Bryansk Pocket. Two attempted attacks in the mud against the defenses near Moscow got nowhere. I've called off the thrust toward Voronezh as it is well beyond reach right now.

At best, we can reduce the pocket before blizzard really takes hold.

[IdahoNYer]

As expected, the Soviets briefly established a link up with the pocket. This time, the corridor remained solid. 2nd and 1st Pz Grps established a continuous line of units to prevent any further attacks. On the interior side, attacks are made against the pocket as much as feasible - the mud hindering operations and lack of troops slowing progress down. Even so, about 20 or so divisions are destroyed.

Still, with blizzard fast approaching, my forces are stretched to the limit holding both the exterior lines and attempting to attack along the interior lines. Until the pocket is fully reduced, panzer formations are forced to hold those exterior lines and will not fare well once blizzard begins. Eventually, infantry from 4th, 2nd and 6th Armies will be able to relieve those panzers, but that's probably at least two weeks away.

[Klydon]

To be honest, I don't know that you consider holding your front line where it is once the blizzard starts. Your armor is exposed and even if the infantry get there in time, they will be tired and won't have time to entrench very effectively. On top of that, your logistics are going to be terrible since you are a fair distance for your rail heads.  I would almost plan on trying to crush the units in the pocket, convert all the hexes and retire with the panzers back to the infantry who should have some time to dig in and rest a bit before the Russians can show up to effectively make attacks.

One other note. I see quite a bit of cav in front of Voronezh. If he wants to leave it there, I would figure out a way to crush it during snow. The less cav he has to form into cav corps (or less cav in general), the easier it will be on you during the winter.

[IdahoNYer]

In the rear area, partisans are beginning to become a nuisance....

Despite meeting the garrison requirements, partisans still spring up and destroy rails. Didn't really expect that, at least not in 1941. This is going to require putting more units to combat the partisans - the garrisons are not enough, nor mobile enough to hunt them down when they appear. Right now, I'll have to make do...I just don't have the troops.

[IdahoNYer]

Klydon - great observation! Didn't really notice the concentration of cav - just not sure if I can pull that off.

Agree this isn't the best line to hold - and I will pull back here as necessary. What's going to be tough is pulling back and abandoning Tula - not sure I'll be able to hold positions that far forward.

What I'm really hoping for is that the Soviet Bear has been weakened enough by the pockets that his blizzard attacks will be greatly minimized.

One can hope, right?

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 26, December 11th 1941

Blizzard hits last turn, so this shot reflects the start of the turn, showing Soviet attacks before German moves.

Even with Blizzard, I made one final attack on Moscow; tried to take the NW corner of the city in two failed deliberate attacks. Not really surprised, but with his industry still in the city, I HAD to make the attempt.

Now its the Soviet's turn to have some fun....

Scar is still transitioning from defense to offense, so his attacks were fairly limited. Out of the 5 attacks in this area (there were no attacks north of here at all), we held on one attack. Heavy losses for all attacks, for both sides. I've got to get the panzers out of the front line and in to "cover" as rapidly as possible - both 3rd and 4th Pz Armies have Pz Divs in the front, and I will move them back toward cities as I can - panzer strength is about 100 or so runners per division at best. A few have over, many less. Both Pz Armies will gradually pull out of their salients as Soviet strength grows, especially with a weak 9th Army line north of Moscow.

Since I've been attacking through December, I really don't have a solid defensive line established - we'll see if my plan to hold the initiative as long as possible will pay off - he's suffered over 4.3 million men lost, hopefully that will be enough!

[raizer]

now this aar is gonna heat up!!!!

[veji1]

how fast are you going to run back towards nexuses of cities/towns that can be held ?

Edit : you might want to read what BigA wrote about surviving the first winter. you have gone so far out that retreating should be the best bet for you. You can go for a town/cities based checkerboard and from there lose 8/hexes in depth on your front before the spring.