Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg

[Senno]

It's a "B" straight to video release.

After disagreeing publically with Oleg about the state of the game, Oleg challenged me. I decided to accept his challenge as playing = more fun than arguing.

This is my first PBEM game of WITE, and I've not claimed to be an expert German player, and told him he would be better served playing a tester if he wanted to prove his point.

Long story short, I offered Oleg his choice of sides and he chose the Soviets. So I am now doing my best to defeat the Soviet juggernaut. I believe he wants me to prove that:

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko

ORIGINAL: Senno
Either side, your choice. If you want to crush me in winter rather than summer, that's fine.[;)]

I do not want to crush you, I'd be fine if you could prove me that winter is survivable for the German (and summer for Soviet). As you may see from Pieter's accusations, I have no problems changing my mind "with the wind". (I'd say I change my mind when I see arguments but whatever.... maybe the arguments are in the wind? <= sounds like Sun Tzu)

I'm unsure how 1 game proves anything, but will give my level best. The fine audience will let us know what, if anything, is proven. I am not making any bets, though.[:D]

We have had a few issues crop up over the turns. The Romanians activated turn 2 along with the VIII Hungarian Corps, and 2 units of the Hungarian Mobile Corps. The Mobile Corps HQ didn't activate the same turn, instead activating as I recall on turn 3? They weren't great use from a strategic viewpoint, as they cleaned up pocketed troops as they made their way to the front.

Now at turn 5, the southern Finns haven't activated. I hope they activate for turn 6.[&:] The northern Finns activated turn 4 instead of 3. I have pursued this question of the Finns activation timing in the War Room at this point. And others have bugged it.

Oleg and I have discussed all these occurences via e-mail, and have agreed the Romanian and Hungarian activations don't really matter in the grand scheme.

As to the Finns, I am not sure how their failure to activate on turn 5 (Southern Finns) will impact overall. Hopefully they at least activate on turn 6. As Oleg now has 6-10 (guesstimate) units at his disposal that I didn't have at least the chance to disrupt via attacks, and the manpower from 2 forts manpower (2 at Hanko closed up shop) at least available undisrupted, I think my questioning how this impacts the defense in AGN's area is reasonable. Time will tell, although I appreciate expert Soviet players opinions on this. Actually I value input from anyone wishing to opine.

Sady, I don't have screenshots of prior turns. Oleg should have them, as he has been writing since the start.

So, we are at start of German turn 5.

[Senno]

So, without further adieu:

Start turn 5 OOB;




Germans, ehhh okish, tanks lower than ideal. Russians big, getting bigger, clearly need to pocket more.

This point is reinforced with Turn 2 losses:



Turn 1 resulted in pocket of AGC, AGN in decent shape, but AGS was badly missed. This, combined with the patient recoiling like a Fibromyalgia patient from contact (warning: hyperbole dangerous to your health) leaves us with no major pockets reduced since turn 2. AGS pocket was completed on German turn 2 as I recall, but the horses were gone. So it yielded a very small pocket.

I suppose I should have left the forums open, and reviewed the "Opening Moves" threads as I played. I didn't wanting to do it myself, rather than just produce someone else's opening. Worked ok 2 out of 3. Sadly the third was where the best units were, and they are thick, as you shall see.

[Senno]

Here is the overall situation, start of Turn 5. I have been in vicinity of Pskov since turn 2. As units streamed north, I was never comfortable pulling the trigger on attacks, as not enough force was present turn 2, turn 3 yielded more infantry present, but mp's of armored units were in the 20's and 30's. This despite flying missions to refuel to their maximum mistake. This was my mistake, I should have formed a fist with the few present, and punched a hole, and advanced to max extent. That might have just been 1 hex over the river, but I'd be there or Novgorod, and not staring at Pskov now, I suppose.

Turn 4, with fatigue high, I fpulled the Panzers back while thickening the infantry line. And punched through with 16th Army in the South, crossing the Sorov River. 2nd Army is coming up in the rear, to threaten VL, or unhinge the rear of the extended Pskov defenses. Elements of 18th stream towards Talinn.


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[2ndACR]

Those manpower forts are a drop for the Russian, so don't worry about them. Those divisions on the other hand can cause some trouble. Because all the Russian has to do it guard his entire northern border with forts or sec regiments. He does not have to guard the border because he has nothing to fear there. Unlike history, he knows the Finns and Germans cannot move past a certain line. Really wish they would remove that German line so I could ship a Corps up there to attack down with. Would be nice.

Someday, I would like to see that change where the Russian has to keep a certain number of div up there or the Finns are released and can attack.

In the grand scheme, the Romanians and Hungarian units are small change. But they do free up your troops from garrison duty in the rear.

You need to kill more Russians though. Lots more.

[PeeDeeAitch]

In my most recent go at losing, by the start of August I am at 1.5 million Soviets hors de combat, 1.25 killed or captured...and I still feel way behind.

[Sabre21]

I saw from the screenshot on your turn 1 move that you triggered the Rumanians by that panzer unit just west of Tarnopol. You have a couple hexes that are under Axis control two rows southwest of that city. Taking control of a hex east of y51 and&nbsp;from x 89 thru x 94. Taking control doesn't mean having to physically move into it either. A zoc from a panzer division that extends into one of these hexes can cause it to happen.

[Senno]

Ahh, thanks. I suppose checking the manual would have helped with that.[:D]

[TulliusDetritus]

Well, from a Soviet player perspective (I'm no expert at all: just mere 18 PBEM turns), not making a big pocket in the AGS area might hurt the German player. There are many many Soviet troops there. The thing is: if you don't manage to pocket a lot of guys on these turns, this means the Soviets can start the defence of the Motherland with THESE spared troops AND of course the many STAVKA reserves which will be soon appearing [:)]

If you manage to kill these guys then the STAVKA hordes are forced to defend the territory alone, which means the Soviet player has to think carefully: "where should I send my strategic reserves [not a lot, and a huge space to cover]"? Believe me, on my game I hadn't this problem... so in fact I had quite many strategic reserves (30 or 40 divisions... ants but...) that could be used as firefighter brigades if needed [8D]

So, as the experts say, you MUST kill Soviet units. That's your priority number one.

Good luck [:)]

[Senno]

Well, if the first 2 are bad, AGS is just disastrous. No pocket, horses out the barn door. The Panzers were in good shape, so I started a pocket with 1st Panzer but Oleg then withdrew behind the S river in 6th Army vicinity, and maintained a cohesive line elsewhere. The Romanians/11th Army continue their crawl forward.


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So that is it in a nutshell. If a Mod can check what changed in the codes between the first post and the last, and fix it so the coding isn't visible, I'd appreciate it. Of course, that is a minor housekeeping matter, soo....hehe.

That is the situation as I finally sit down now, and start turn 5. Humongous soviet Army, decent gains in Center, not so great north, and south, with not enough pockets/casualties at all. Good thing I never claimed to be an expert German player, this could be embarrassing in that case.[:D]

Thank you TD, PeeDee & 2nd (but not third in my heart[;)]) for the responses. Thanks to Andy for telling me to RTFM (just kidding, thank you)....

Oleg has presented a rough defense. He is well dug in along appropriate defensive features. And my fibromyalgia comment really only applies to the situation around AGS and 1st Panzer. Of course no one is going to sit still to be surrounded, so he withdrew to the next defensive point. This is expected and probably the right response, no matter how bad I feel that my pocket isn't formed. They must be mostly, if not completely formed in 1 turn, or he will be gone, like the wind (where have I heard that before??)

Or, is it to late, and I must simply bulldoze now? I'm not sure. I do know I saw very very very few shattered results, even in the first turn. Not sure my bulldozer has a sharp blade....

I do recall when AGS went wrong. It was the very first attack against the very top fortress in AGS area of concern. It gave off a "held" result. Then the division to it's immediate south shrugged off 3-4, or 4-5 attacks (can't remember which, it was a shocking amount) , including a couple deliberate ones, finally falling to 2 divisions in a delberate attack. Of course I went from low on AP's to no AP's during that sequence, so was limited in my responses other than pile on the divisions in further attacks. Once you use MP's for deliberate, stacked attacks, how far you can go is limited. The division on the rough yielded similar difficulties.... So it's just been downhill from there.[:D] Or maybe just flat? That was an auspiciously bad start....

Of course, to balance that I am solely responsible for my overly cautious panzer driving. The path was mostly clear, as I recall. I could have/should have done better.

So going forward. Pocket, pocket, pocket. Kill, kill, kill. Ive got to find the rhythm of advance, pocket, reduce/advance (panzers ho), pocket, reduce/advance ad infinitum. That's how I see it assuming the best. It might just be that I suck, though....

[Sabre21]

Just more practice is all Senno. The German player in the 41 campaign can ill afford to make many mistakes. You have to hope your Soviet opponent makes more than you.

[PeeDeeAitch]

All is not lost. Gather all, and I mean ALL your southern tanks into a compact force with each corps stacked in a hex.&nbsp; Infantry with deliberate attacks breaks the first lines, then use the first corps-hex to smash through the lines and make your 3-hex hole. If they had decent (30+) movement, they can bust through several lines. The 2nd and 3rd corps-sized units can either attack as a mass or fan out behind the lines.&nbsp; Reserve infantry can then hold the gap open.&nbsp; Having 6 or 7 motorized/tank units in the read in a big blob will unnerve the Soviets I am sure.

[TulliusDetritus]

Senno, and don't forget the southen part of the map aka Ukraine west and east of the Dnper is tank country. You should have the upper hand here, don't worry. If your opponent is not careful you might bag many of his forces. After all, what's the thing I feared the most as Soviet player? The PANZERS! [X(] The enemy infantry will simply push you... but the former will encircle... and you're toast [8D]

So don't forget, many enemy units down there in Ukraine + tank country.

[Senno]

Thanks guys. Sometimes I go overboard with the self-deprecation. So it looks more like I'm whinging than just joking. I'm still having fun, but I want to make sure that targets of opportunity include myself.

The fist is formed around AGN generally, and soon to be in AGC. AGS will be movement to contact in their northern area of responsibility. I'm playing it through now, hehe.

Umm, Op Sec demands that I don't say much more for a bit.

[Klydon]

I am glad you decided to write up a AAR on the game. Oleg is a good Russian and has experience. He has won and lost as the Russian, so he has seen it go both ways.

I think you hit it on the head that a review of the opening Axis moves would have been helpful to your cause if only to give you some good ideas on how to proceed since you say you don't have very much experience with the Axis. That is what those guides were put up for.. to help other players out and to cut down on the learning curve. It is important to have a good opening for the Axis or they face a tougher struggle.

As far as the Finns not activating/not attacking, I have found they are good for killing 3-4 Russian units and the rest of the Russian army generally retires in good order, so I don't think that will be really significant in the outcome of things.

I also think that by playing this game, it will help you understand some of the issues that several have been discussing and allow you to experience them first hand.

Good luck with the campaign and I generally agree with others who have posted.. you need more dead Reds.

[Senno]

ORIGINAL: Klydon

I am glad you decided to write up a AAR on the game. Oleg is a good Russian and has experience. He has won and lost as the Russian, so he has seen it go both ways.

I think you hit it on the head that a review of the opening Axis moves would have been helpful to your cause if only to give you some good ideas on how to proceed since you say you don't have very much experience with the Axis. That is what those guides were put up for.. to help other players out and to cut down on the learning curve. It is important to have a good opening for the Axis or they face a tougher struggle.

As far as the Finns not activating/not attacking, I have found they are good for killing 3-4 Russian units and the rest of the Russian army generally retires in good order, so I don't think that will be really significant in the outcome of things.

I also think that by playing this game, it will help you understand some of the issues that several have been discussing and allow you to experience them first hand.

Good luck with the campaign and I generally agree with others who have posted.. you need more dead Reds.

Thanks for the response. Few more died, and will be dying next turn, I hope. Op Sec required I not say more, lol.

Finns: I generally agree. I'd just like to have the forces I should have available, basically. Even if they just sit there playing tiddlywinks with their opposites.

I think I need to point out that "first pbem" is not equivalent to first game against a human in WITE. I played my son, he's not great and retired from both sides, but he'd like to think he counts for something, haha. He's not young, and I'm old, so I'm not beating up on children, lol.

Anyways, Oleg is better than I, so I'm not sure that it proves what he wants to prove. Or honestly, that 3 total games against a live opponent that I will have played proves anything, either. Seems like a very small sample size. At least it's bigger than the current 0 aar's played through Spring '42 with current versions.

I intend to stick it out though. Might get rough, but I'm game and all I've got is time, haha.

I will post up turn 5, after getting 6 back from Oleg I think. I have "numb butt" from sitting here so long.

[Senno]

Turn 5.

Not much activity in Finland. Routine movements by the minimal activated forces. Hoping the rest activate on turn 6.

AGN:

Elements of 18th Army stream up to the coast between Tallinn and Leningrad reaching the coast.

4th Panzer starts an encirclement of units in vicinity of Pskov. Pskov is seized in fierce fighting by elements of 18th Army. 16th Army continues moving north parallel to the Sinyaya River, south of Pskov. They are heading towards the land bridge between Pskov and Novgorod, generally.

Second Army is closing in on VL, north of the Dvina. It will be assigned to AGN once AP's are available. It hopefully will help unhinge the defenses and hold the critical area around VL.

The FBD unit assigned to AGN is halfway between Riga and Pskov.

OKH reinforcements have arrived: 60th Motorized assumes a position on the southwest corner of Fourth Panzers semi-pocket, and LI Corps is closing in to Pskov, probably two turns away from joining the front line.




AGC:

A pocket is partially started around Vitebsk, with Vitebsk seized. The land bridge is slowly, oh so slowly coming into our possession. I continue to expect fierce fighting northeast and east of Vitabsk towards Smolensk. Hopefully 2nd Army will exert pressure in a turn or 2 and require that they fall back. Elements of Third Armor are across the Dvina northwest of Vitabsk and should also exert a degree of pressure. The Panzers are fully engaged in the land bridge area.

Ninth Army is almost fully engaged in the land bridge area, and will proceed towards Smolensk, with 2nd Army on the left flank, keeping the vital link with AGN.

1 FBD is closing in on Vitabesk behind Third Panzer, the other southwest of Minsk, trailing Second Panzer. The rear is generally clear with pockets cleaned and garrisons established.




AGC 2:

2nd Panzer is now generally east of Gomel between the Pripyat and Dnepr Rivers. Their movement allowance did not allow them to cross the Dnepr. 4th Army is now fully engaged on the Dnepr, with combat strength ready to force a crossing next turn. They will do so in conjunction with Second Panzer. We generally have possession of all of AGC's area of responsibility west of the Dnepr, and north of the Pripeyet Marshes, with the exception of 1 unit south of Mogilsk, and the land bridge itself.

First Cav of Second Panzer was left higly exposed, so air supply was extended. We will see if he cuts it off/attacks aggressively or not. He hasn't counter-attacked aggressively yet, and this may be his first best chance. If it is cut off, there's not much in the area to save it, so a hard choice may have to be made.

With 2nd Panzer threatening Gomel, it will be interesting to see how long Oleg remains relatively forward of Kiev. In AGS's northern area. I imagine he feels troop and land rich, so he will fall back behind the southern Dnepr pretty quickly, and not risk large encirclements to sustain his advantage.

No current screenshot, sorry.

AGS:

Sixth and Seventeenth Armies are fully engaged on the front line, generally west of Kiev and closing in on Zhitomir. First Panzer combined with Seventeenth Army to form a full pocket in between Vinnitsa and Proskurov. MP's were virtually completely used up moving the infantry to the new front line.

The FBD is at Rovno.



In the Far South, 11th Army and elements of the Romanian Cavalry & infantry consolidated a crossing of the Dnestr northeast of Kishinev, and push east. First Romanian Armored participated in the First Panzer pocket, and is oriented South, threatening a potential linkup east of the Dnestr with the Romanian Cav and/or 11th Army.

11th Armies FBD is southeast of Kishinev.


Overall, 1 pocket in AGS is formed, 2 partials otherwise.

Oleg still has a commanding manpower lead, and can happily trade time for space. I expect this to be the case especially in AGS, as he falls back behind the Dnepr.

Will post losses and OOB numbers when Olegs sends the turn back.

[Senno]

The overall situation of AGN/AGC:



I have to drive him back with whatever forces I can muster. Hence the charge of the 2 Finn divisions towards Leningrad. I don't want to face level 4 forts if/when the rest of the Finns do activate. They just don't have the manpower to face extra challenges that aren't normally present.

AGC/AGS:



That's First Cav of the Second Panzer in yellow. Unhappily alone, will Oleg cut him off? Probably, but I don't foresee a ruthless counterattack.

And Far South:



You can see the clingons in red in my far rear. They are what's left of all the early turns pockets.

I keep scanning the far rear for reinforcements, somewhat forlornly. Maybe, just maybe the Italians will all activate? Hehe....

[randallw]

I see a lot of Sov players try to form a forward line with the remnants of the NW front; they way I view them they should crack pretty easily with low TOEs and morale.

[Senno]

Here's hoping.[;)]

I finally got enough infantry lined up, with a front in front of me, to try to have a real whack at it.

I felt like Lt. Gen. Fred Franks did lining up VII Corps getting on after the Republican Guard. Well not really, I can only imagine. And he took some criticism for being slow. So we have something in common there. But I know I was slow to the show. I just never felt confident launching attacks across the river with sparse infantry support. That's my own fault, of course.

Finally moving forward now though.

[Senno]

Turn 6 OOB:



Losses:



Air Losses:



Destroyed Units (Way, way to low):