Senno v Oleg; Starring in "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt?" No Oleg

[Klydon]

That is shaping up to be a nail biter around Leningrad as the Germans race the clock there. If you don't get the job done, you will be hung out to dry at the gates of Leningrad when the Russian counter offensive opens up and I have to believe that this will be a prime spot for Oleg to attack in a blizzard to get Leningrad some breathing space.

The middle Russian pocket is in supply through the port.

[Pipewrench]

wtf?
 
Leningrad is in deep trouble. great move and great aar Senno.
 
Start forming ideas for the use of that extra mobility freed up when the city falls.
 

[Senno]

Thanks guys.

I fully expect to be hung out to dry, whether or not Leningrad falls. We will have to see if the front folds, I guess.

If I do seize Leningrad, I get some help that makes holding the area contestible. Who will end up in the city, and who will be out looking in? Who knows. That's the fun of the game, isn't it?

So, Operation: "Prevent Counrland Pocket in 1941" has been revised and extended to all the forces of AGN. Seizing Leningrad and activating the Fnns being the short-term goal. The long-term goal is TOP SECRET, sorry.[;)]

It's a really fun game.

PS:

I thought the middle pocket would be in beachhead status next turn. The far one isolated. If not, I will divert a stack and crush the port.[;)] That should solve that problem, I hope.

[Senno]

Infantry continues to grind down, 15 units less than 80 toe after attacks, and placed on refit.

[PeeDeeAitch]

ORIGINAL: Senno
PeeDee, you are halfway to New York, in flyover country, I think. Can you tell me if going to New York next year is a good idea?

Hah! I am in the middle of nowhere, actually. Surrounded by mountains, 7200 feet up on the High Plains. I am originally a California lad, but now in the real West.

[Senno]

Awesome. My Dad is first off the farm, both parents from Idaho. They wanted to retire back to Boise, but remain here in Central CA in the low valley. We are close to what we call "mountains" and "forests" here. (Yosemite is 2 hours away[:D]) The mountains are smallish cousins of the Rockies, haha. My Dad did some hunting in your general neck of the woods, I can't recall exactly where in Wyoming, though.

I've been to Yellowstone, but it was as a baby, I don't remember much.

[Senno]

Turn 12:

AGN south of Lake Ilmen:

The last of the deception units are stripped out and sent towards Novgorod and points north. This leaves Second Army in a very, very thin screen down to AGC. I don't like to break down into regiments, viewing them as training units for the Soviets. So instead, I will just lash out at whatever units he pokes forward a hex. If he gets rambunctious, the mobile reserve (I don't really have one, yet.) will respond and put out the fire. That will be Fourth Panzers job, in addition to assisting with Leningrad, and if time forming a far north pincher to Kalinin. That's the dream, anyway, haha.

The reality may be different.

Against the AI, I like to loop around from landbridge to VL, with parts of Third Panzer. Maybe if I wasn't bogged down, that would be an option. But, as he's stripped the area, I think, not much to capture anyway. I would like the land though, bigger buffer. Push the Soviets even further back from their historic ledge, which hung like the Sword of Damocles over AGC. See 1942 GC start, for what I want to avoid, in general.

Unless he's hidden a huge ambush force back in there. I'm still surprised at lightness of Leningrad immediate defenses. Those units have to be somewhere. And I'm flying tons more recon now.

I have decided to quit telling him that massing in force and counter-attacking might be a good idea. Talk about self-defeating, haha.

AGC:

Ninth Army completes movement to contact south of Smolensk and beats up some ants. The northeast secition of his wall is pounded on, but pretty thick. I think I will shift north next turn, and head towards Kalinin, generally. I don't want to be funneled south, that's for certain. Third Panzer remains on refit, as there's nowhere to exploit to, right now. I can open a nice big hole next turn, I hope, if he's not gone like the wind.

Fourth Army also completes movement to contact, but lacks mp's to really knock down anything, besides saying hello in a violent manner. So Second Panzer also remains on hiatus. WIt will be heading east by northeast. I'm envisioning a souther pincher, at Tula or thereabouts, but times not on my side.

I'm in position to knock some holes, if he doesn't fall back, next turn. Then we will see. It's a single screen down here, I believe, little depth.

He does have a large concentration of air bases north of Orel. That's further south than I would want to send second panzer, though. Ideally (I'm far from ideal), they would form a southern pincher at about Kaluga to Ryazan. I could brush the northern air-brushes, but diverting to scatter them wholly, probably not.

In the Prip pocket, 4 units that I can detect are still alive. The Italian cav suffered a hasty defeat. I did that intentiionally to see how the combat would go. The deliberate attack then defeated the Soviet unit. Combat power was decent in that Soviet unit at least. They've been isolated a good while now.

[Q-Ball]

Good AAR. Looking at the last AGN screenshot, though, I think he can defend Leningrad, no problem. He can bring the troops to the south up north, and quickly plug the gaps. The middle pocket is supplied through Orienburg, which means your Panzer spearhead near Pushkin will struggle to accumulate supplies. I don't see him losing Leningrad, absent a major error on his part, like failing to defend the Neva line.

[Senno]

I've air supplied Fourth Panzer to maximum extent. Gonna smack Orienburg next turn, but that's one more turn in the books, as mud approaches.

I thought he might shift more units north, last turn.

Thanks for stopping in Q-Ball, enjoy your AAR's.

Now if I can start to replicate that in coming games...

[Senno]

Turn 12

AGS:

Seventeenth Army opens a hole near Cherkassy, Cherkassy seized. First Panzer filters through. No solid pockets formed. This threatens his lines south and east. Well, the Soviet units to immediate North of First Panzer are nearly pocketed, but its very leaky.

Oleg remains hard to pocket. His inverted T defense continues to suck mp's out of the infantry. It's hard to close to the actual line through his screen. It's not a checkerboard really in this area, as his screeners are in contact with the main line. Could only get 1 hole opened well enough for First Panzer to filter through.

11th Army pounded on the line, starting to open a hole to allow the cavalry to move in a bit.

I expect a drawback from all points southwest of First Panzer, as I try to roll down his lines. And from the norhwest of Cherkassy,

6th army is northeast of First Panzer on the west of the Dnepr. Rolling down southeast, with a screen towards AGC.

It's pretty late, and other than some forts in AGC digging away, I'm not really in nearing winter quarters anywhere. I will have to adapt a mobile defense, perhaps. Or get crushed under the wave. We will see. But after the "great withdrawal" off the Dnepr, he might have to catch me to beat the heck outta me.[;)]

[Sabre21]

Interesting how you managed to retake the strategic initiative back from him after giving it up early on. You have him on the ropes right now reacting to you so you need to press hard and keep the pressure up.
 
You can take Leningrad in 4 or 5 moves, maybe quicker depending on how you use your panzers up there. In the center you are several turns behind where you could have been and taking Moscow prior to blizzard is in doubt. I would seriously consider figuring where you want to establish your main line of resistance and break up a couple divisions and get them started in digging. Down south you can use the allies and once Leningrad is captued the Finns can push out.
 
In the meantime gain as much ground as possible ahead of your MLR..as Bob likes to say..your "Alamo Line". I like to put at least 10 hexes between my MLR and my far outpost line.

[Senno]

Thanks. I sat down and really evaluated my game once I decided to write an AAR at turn 5. I decided I needed to be more aggressive (not working so well) and just not to give up, basically. Although I didn't put my writeup in the AAR (despite joking about OP SEC alot, I do try to keep future plans quiet for the most part), I pm'd my writeup to 2ndACR, and got some advice from him. The advice I have recieved from all the posters has been helpful, and looking at Q-Ball and PDH's AAR's has been both inspirational and quite helpful.

So, it boils down to realizing this is a very long war. And not giving up, to me. I never thought I could win in '41 really, even if I played perfectly (fat chance). I hope to get better, though. And make many less mistakes, which certainly stand out in my AAR.

I could also stand to be much better organized with AP expenditures, getting SU's lined up more quickly, and the commandsl lined up better. Right now only AGN is well organized. A corps in AGS has 10 units, for example.

Oleg is pretty slippery, and I need to really think how to surprise him. I hope to be able to surprise him well into 1945, haha. That is if I have an army after the blizzard, anyway. That's what Oleg challenged me over, the blizzard. And we will see how that goes.

I promised myself I wouldn't quit the game, unless the game became literally unplayable. One of us is going to have to win on VP's or the clock will run out. If I play with a shell of an army for however long, that's fine, as I want to experience the blizzard against an expeienced player. And then see what the army looks like before the spring of '42, As I play for fun, and it's voluntary on my part, no worries there.

This is a great game to play. And I am having tons of fun playing it.

Oleg actually said he was having fun 2 turns ago, he is usually pretty quiet in e-mails.[:)]

Thanks for stopping in again Sabre, appreciate your hard work in testing this game for us noobs.

PS: I started some digging last turn in AGC, working on id'ing my defensive line now. I hope to grab some more land in AGC and AGS late. AGN, I'm still grinding. Hoping to grab Leningrad and get those finns activated.

I have turn 13 back from Oleg, and am analyzing it now. Oleg remains very timely with the turns.

I have been careful with the Panzers, and the maintain their combat power. It might be time to unleash them in direct combat, within the next turn or 2. I don't think they need to attack around Leningrad this turn. Still piecing it together, though.

[Aussiematto]

Also learning a lot from this AAR - thanks.

Around moscow, thinking into 1942, you should consider building up a salient, with the Russians more forward than you might initially like since, in mid 1942 you could then attempt to close off the salient behind moscow, snatching the city and all those to the west. It's risky but, if you can get Leningrad, the finns will take care of the northern defences, so long as he withdraws far enough.

[Senno]

ORIGINAL: majeloz

Also learning a lot from this AAR - thanks.

Around moscow, thinking into 1942, you should consider building up a salient, with the Russians more forward than you might initially like since, in mid 1942 you could then attempt to close off the salient behind moscow, snatching the city and all those to the west. It's risky but, if you can get Leningrad, the finns will take care of the northern defences, so long as he withdraws far enough.

if I get the Finns activated, I think your plan would be of some merit. I don't want a giant salient, like the historic '42 GC, though.[;)]

I hope I can keep my army in existence, and then hope to retain some offensive capability if I focus all available forces. I wish I had a current AAR to compare to, here.

I don't intend to end up in absolute WWI trench warfare, in 1942 and on. I will try to take the offensive during the spring and summer '42, by hook or by crook. Hopefully the offensive goes better than this years, generally. It will probably be in one sector, though. Not general. That's if I have an amy at all.

With the upcoming TOE changes (I can't convince myself to call them "uprades" as the game optimistically does) to my army upcoming, infantry specifically, it will be harder for sure. But I hope to have some options. Currently, in AGN, my attacks succeed with 1 triple stack, heavily reinforced with SU's, and making certain the units are in the same Corps. In 1942, I might have to go to 2 stacks, or more. Vagaries in the line would help with that.

Thus, how my army shapes up in spring '42 will be key. Will I even have an army? Am I 50% TOE or worse everywhere? Against AI, I'm 80% all along the lines in Spring '42, and that's only if I purposely don't hit win in '41. But that's no yardstick for a game against a player.

The Soviets have a lot to say about this as well. And their forces only get better and larger as we go on. /Sigh.[;)]

PS: Having to focus the manpower into one sector is historical, isn't it?. The Germans did it with AGS. Leaving AGN at around 50% TOE, and AGC, was similar. I'm not saying I want to go into AGS. I will leave the option open until early Spring, I think. And then decide where to focus all the forces available to me.

Thanks for stopping in majeloz.

[Senno]

Turn 13 OOB:

My forces hold steady. With Allies we have rough numerical parity. Getting the Finns into the fight, rather than bystanding will help, as they are great in winter, and will loosen up 20 or so of my own, including the valuable Fourth Panzer. It's a race to the wire with that, though.

Soviets slowly climb.

I've been slowly training the Romanians, bashing Soviets with multiple stacks. Results aren't great, as their morale is lowish. They slowly climb. They make great garrisons and diggers, generally.

Their mountain boys do help a lot in winter, though. And I hope they slow the Soviets down a turn or so. Same with the Hungarian mountain, nice bump in the road.

I don't really like to risk them otherwise, as once destroyed, they are gone forever.

[Senno]

Turn 13:

Losses:

My losses climb somewhat. 50/50 roughly killed and disabled. That's a bit strange, compared to historic losses, but as my game isn't a carbon copy of history, I will take the figures happily. That, and my losses they are quite low compared to history anyway.

The Soviets haven't counter-attacked for another turn, as well. This is becoming the general norm, he hasn't counter-attacked very much, at all. I don't like to characterize my opponents play really, as I'm not remotely close to a Soviet expert, but it seems like he could be more aggressive, to me. Not a kamikaze, but more aggressive.

My captured amounts are very low. This is indicative of my general cautiousness. I just don't like to risk being isolated and devasted like Tullius Detritus did to his opponent in his first AAR. I have to work on that, or play Soviets, I suppose. I seem to do ok grinding away towards Leningrad. I gave my opponent the choice of sides, and he choose Soviets...

Soviets losses climb a bit.. I haven't caused a decent amount of casualties, and pocketed amounts are a disappointment. He will be very large come Spring. /Sigh.

The losses are roughly 50/50 killed/disabled for them as well. That's a bit odd, and I wonder how that effects his manpower going into 1942? I assume not much, as overall they aren't high. But he should have more disabled, eventually returning, than killed, shouldn't he? At least compared to historic losses.

I can't recall if that's a known issue off the top of my head. I think it is, but will check later.

I have managed to poke past 1 million pocketed. Oleg remains ever slippery and hard to pocket for me.

[Senno]

Turn 13:

Dead Pile:

Destroyed units remains disappointingly low. They have climbed somewhat as I reduce the Prip Marshes, Smolensk, and mini pocket west of Leningrad.

None of my units have been destroyed, which is expected.

[Senno]

Turn 13:

AGN (post-recon, pre-movement)

I have flown over a hundred recon missions in and around Leningrad. That may just not be enough, as I am surprised by what I see.

The defenses on the inner ring around Leningrad aren't stronger to the east. They seem to be weaker.[&:] I thought he'd be well dug in, on size 3 forts, maybe 4 as we looked east along the river on the inner ring defenses.

Leningrad itself is very strongly defended. Size 4 fortress, triple stacked detecting at 3 = 58. That's a beast to break down.

The rest are smaller. Size 3 to the immediate east of the Panzers, going to 2. He's also not triple stacked, that I can detect. Heavy emphasis on detect, I guess.

What I do know is that I am running out of time to take Leningrad. That has been my objective since the start. And I won't be distracted now, as time slips away, and I definitely need the Finns for winter.

Planning how to back the Panzers out, and get the infantry forward next to Leningrad and where I want to attack is a beast. I am very congested at the spearhead. Hats off to the Soviet players for maneuvering their huge stacks with skill. I find it somewhat similar to a puzzle, even with my limited forces.[;)]

I hope next turn that will be loosened up somewhat, as his zoc's from the units to my rear complicate everything in this narrow area to the immediate south of Leningrad.

Fortunately, it's not all surprising or bad news. Only 5 infantry divisions remain below 80% after being placed on refit last turn. The other 18 are 80% to 98%. AGN infantry has had priority for refit since turn 6, and it seems to be paying off now.

Fourth Panzer has been protected and is in great shape. If I need to, I will bulldoze with them. I haven't yet, but that remains an option.

Fatigue is down, the highest unit being 36.

SU's are reshuffled, as different units arrive on the point of the spear to take over operations. As are Corps HQ's. All this is absolutely crucial to success.

I remain in great shape for the final push into Leningrad over the next few turns, I think. Certainly for this coming turn.

All in all, I'd rather be where PDH is, or Red's opponent is, than where I am. But I can't help that now. Well, besides continuing to move forward, that is.

I am heartened by Squatter's post-blizzard report. That's about the numbers I hope to achieve, now.

I've got to get defenses up, but am torn by conflicting goals.

[Senno]

AGN:

Turn 13 (post-movement)

Well, after flying recon until cows came home, I decided I'd just have to go see the truth of it.

Oranienbaum (non)pocket, and the other small pocket were almost completely reduced. Infantry moved north and breached eastwards.

I decided to attack in 3 places with the panzers, and cleared out to Mga. And surprisingly, those forts to the east are that undeveloped. An attack on Schlisselburg was rebuffed, however. The Panzers are still in very good to good shape, 92 to 80% TOE. There is room to improve the panzers with SU's if necessary. They remain double stacked as always. I really don't want the panzers to be counter-attacked, at all.

Novgorod was seized.

An envelopment between Novgorod and Mga is now threatened. The infantry is closer to Leningrad, with the threat to our rear greatly reduced.

I continue to use 1 triple stack in the attack. The leading edge is max SU allocated, pioneers and stugs. I intend to clear south of the river, so Leningrad can be attacked from multiple hexes with the infantry, while I threaten the close back-door with the panzers. Linking up with the Finns to the north-east isn't a possibility. I wish it was, but that back back back door remains locked to me.

I hope to grab Leningrad before the mud.

It's gonna be close.

[TulliusDetritus]

That's very good, Senno. After all this is your first game. Oleg has already played 2 or 3 times as the Soviets [8D] 4 more turns before mud. Remember the attacking value is divided by 8 when mud arrives.