Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Nemo121]

Bullwinkle,

Aye, I agree with you. I haven't seen Palembang sufficiently prioritised. With such an undercommittment it will, as you say, be a speedbump rather than something which will hold. That still has value however, just not nearly as much value.

I like your summary. Yes, counting on the benefits of the fortress without creating the fortress is in error.

[Canoerebel]

12/26/41

I have returned from a nice camping trip with my boys to discover some unpleasantness in this game and a bunch of horrors going on in the world. We were enjoying peace and quiet, but lots of people were facing unimagineable horror. [:(]

Eastern DEI: The powerful Japanese bombardment TF that tangled with the CA Louisville group yesterday is now probing around Ambon. I *think* the force is somewhat depleted after that sharp engageement, so should I take a chance to hit it with two CA/CL groups and two CL/DD groups? I'm not sure. In the first place, perhaps the Japanese BBs didn't expend as much ammo as I think. In the second place, if I guess wrong I will not have any combat ship presence in the DEI to speak of. Yet, I'm inclined to consider trying...but not until I can gather everybody at a good rallying point. I don't know if the Japanese are ready to invade Ambon. I do know that the Mini KB isn't around and that Japan doesn't have any airfields above level one in the area. It is possible that part of the KB is present...more about that in a minute. Moderately damaged CA Louisville went under, much to my surprise. The vaunted Allied damage control wasn't vaunted.

Western DEI: The Mini KB is hanging around between Singapore and Singkawang. Nothing much else going on here, though Palembang's AV is up to 515 (more about Bullwinkles comments, followed by Nemo's, below).

Coral Sea: The Minneapolis TF blundered into part of the KB near Luganville. This came as a total surprise, though it shouldn't have, and cost me the CA, CL Raleigh, and a DD. So, part of the KB is here, but I don't think all of it (the strike groups consisted of about 35 Kates and about 35 Vals). I think Shokaku, which took a torp near Pearl Harbor, is in the yards, but this still leaves the possibility that part of the KB could be steaming for the eastern DEI (I rate that chance pretty high) or NoPac (I think that is less likely, but not out of the question).

NoPac: The Allies have landed most of two infantry units at Adak Island (about 130 AV). No sign of enemy opposition. The Amchitka counter-invasion force is perhaps eight days away.

SigInt: Received a report that 4th Division is aboard a Maru bound for Truk. Similar info was received for 33rd Div. recently. This suggests a major IJA move in the east or southeast. Could be Oz, could be NZ, Fiji/Pago Pago/etc., or could be Hawaii. I'm diverting 8th Marines from Pago Pago bound TF over to Lihinu (however you spell the port east of Pearl). I'll try to get a RCT to Hilo in the next few weeks. Not enough political points!

Fortress Palembang: I appreciate Bullwinkle suggesting I read Nemo's AAR vs. One-Eyed Jacks. Did so at length last week just before leaving for the camping trip. Learned that my concept of the fortress is vastly different from Nemos. I am not comfortable going all-in - I do not want to leave India vacant by shipping the British, Australian, Indian, and Singapore troops to Palembang. There's a good chance that Steve is experienced enough to jump all over that. So my version of Fortress Palembang is simply a major speedbump that I think will work more effectively than would concentrating the Allied troops at Soerabaja or Batavia.

[Nomad]

You could also read my parts of the Pinups in the Pacific AAR. I had a fortress Palambang with 2500AV. Never got to see what was going to happen, our opponets kept drifting away.

Here is the LINK

[paullus99]

Given the Japanese steamroller, you'd lose those troops anyway - better to use them in a location where you can make him bleed for it.

[Nomad]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Given the Japanese steamroller, you'd lose those troops anyway - better to use them in a location where you can make him bleed for it.

I am curious, where else can you make him bleed other than a base he has to take, you have 100,000+ supply, 2500+ AV, in a swamp hex with level 7 forts? Couple that with 400-500 engineers and see what the oil and refineries look like after he does take it. By the time he moves 8-10 divisions in he will be seriously late in his occupations.

[paullus99]

Absolutely - which is why I've been an advocate of the "Fortress Palembang" strategy.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Fortress Palembang: I appreciate Bullwinkle suggesting I read Nemo's AAR vs. One-Eyed Jacks. Did so at length last week just before leaving for the camping trip. Learned that my concept of the fortress is vastly different from Nemos. I am not comfortable going all-in - I do not want to leave India vacant by shipping the British, Australian, Indian, and Singapore troops to Palembang. There's a good chance that Steve is experienced enough to jump all over that. So my version of Fortress Palembang is simply a major speedbump that I think will work more effectively than would concentrating the Allied troops at Soerabaja or Batavia.

Palembang is a chess game. (I think Nemo plays?) It's a round-about proposition where you can quickly lose track of who is the hunter and who the hunted. As I tried to suggest above, and you digested by reading that excelelnt AAR, there are certain "everybody knows" factors in the game at this point, and one is the needfulness of P. to the Japanese player, if not immediatley then eventually. However, that truism may or may not be in play if he's an auto-vic or die guy. On the third hand, you might "do a Nemo" at P., go all in, and he doesn't even find out for months if he has his cap set on Oz, or Hawaii, or India. He has pretty deep starting pockets in Scen. 2. Or, you could wave your arms, jump in the air, and hint by e-mail feint that he really ought to come look at the briar patch, you having readied your tar baby in Nemo fashion, and he yawns and attacks elsewhere instead.

Nemo did P. up brown, but he knew by then he had an opponent who would probably bite, and he had sixteen moves prepared for after that bite, and even what to do if he didn't, against all odds, take the bait. You don't know your opponent's mind very well yet.

That said, I would tend to think that, all else being equal, you're going to lose those scattered LCUs to no good ends, even the pile at Singapore. I'd try to make him pay retail for them. You don't know he's an auto-vic or bust player yet (his former opponent says nay, but hey, you're not acting like yourself either, Sir Used-to-be-Robin.[:)])

I don't know the balance point on India and Palembang force dispersal, but if you're going to do P., do it at least medium large I'd say. If he's in the game for the long term he has to have it relatively soon, if not immediately.

I've been shown analysis in PM that the other well-known "truth"--that P. captured highly damaged is a deadly blow to the Japanese--ain't necessarily so either. You ought to maybe run a few numbers if that's part of your calculation.

[Canoerebel]

12/27/41 (and backpeddling to fill in 12/25/41)

Das darf nicht var sein! (This cannot be!): SigInt reports AV Kamikawa Maru at 219/77, just off the Channel Islands and Los Angels. (Duh question: can a player use an AV at sea????). Is it possible Steven snuck a dumb ol' AV way over here? I'm sending some DDs to investigate. I don't like the thought that he's monitoring CV Enterprise in dry dock at LA (speaking of which, she's at 5/18 damage and will be ready to go in less than three weeks).

Filling in the 12/25 turn: In my haste to leave town on the camping trip, I apparently forgot to record the events of the 12/25 turn. The main thing was that my cruiser force ran into a very nasty surprise at Ternate, mixing it up with some BBs that exacted a heavy toll. I lost CA Australia, CL Perth, a DD and some heavy damage to CA Louisville (she went down the next day, much to my displeasure). The only other event in my notes is that Palembang's AV went from 486 to 501 that day.

Back to the present (12/27):

Eastern DEI: IJ amphibious landing at Ambon is covered by at least three BB (Ise, Mutsu and Fuso) so I'm not going to risk my cruiser forces. A Japanese attack at Manado was repulsed (this base always seems to be tougher than Japan planned).

Western DEI: Mini-KB remains parked between Pontianak and Singapore. Japan takes vacant Kuala Lumpur. Singapore garrison has 900+ AV. Palembang garrison is up to 535 AV.

SoPac: No sighting of the carrier force near Luganville today. Four Allied DDs scattered after yesterday's sharp action and seem to be making good their escape.

NoPac: No sign of enemy activity. Amchitka counter-invasion force is perhaps five to seven days away. I will feel much better when (and if) I have control of the Aleutian island chain again. I need this "platform" to either project a threat to Japan or to attack Japan if Steve gets too frisky in Oz or India.

Allied Carriers: Lex and Sara remain up near Dutch Harbor. Ent is in the yards at LA. Yorktown arrives at San Diego in two days.

[princep01]

I would bet a lot that the AV sighting off the Channel Is. is a false report. I'm sure you see these from time to time. I get sightings such as 6 Japanese ships sighted 4 hexes from Pearl Harbor in mid 1942. No ship icon shows up and nothing subsequently materializes. These are just random "bad" sightings by naval search rookies that had too much to drink the night before or who suffer so badly from the boredom that they have to report something, anything, sometimes. Treat accordingly. Proceed to wreck the real Japanese threats.

[kfsgo]

I dunno, if it's a signals intercept rather than a naval search report I'd at least check it out - I think AVs (as opposed to AKVs) can operate aircraft at sea, can't they?

[bradfordkay]

Wow... I find it hard to believe that SigInt report. Could he be trying to setup a temporary seaplane base in the Channel Islands? My bet is that the sigint guys mistook the call sign for a sub launched Glen for that of a seaplane operating from the Kamikawa Maru. Steve does like to send his Glen equipped subs to snoop the west coast. 

[Canoerebel]

12/28/41

Das darf nicht var sein: My destroyers didn't find an AV lurking west of the Channel Islands. As BradfordKay suggested, this was probably an "exaggerated" SigInt report of what is actually a Glen-equipped sub (which I've known has been operating in that area for a week now). This important thing is that this shows me that SigInt can "exaggerate" ship report claims. In the past, I have taken such reports as gospel truth (in the same way that reports of units at a certain location are accurate).

Eastern DEI: The Japanese have at least four BBs (Yamashiro, Mutsu, Fuse, Ise) at Ambon. The invaders tried a shock attack but didn't take the island. Steve has an infantry regiment, some armor, and a few other small units. I'm going to try to slide some of my combat TFs to the west to hit Manado, where another IJ invasion is ongoing. KXVII put a TT into already damaged BB Hyuga up north of Babeldaob. I think she'll be in the yards for a month or two.

Western DEI: No sign of the Mini KB today, which is important as a transport TF is unloading an Indian brigade at Oosthaven. I may keep this unit there, but it's prepping for Palembang. The AV at Palembang is up to 549.

India: A UK division just landed at Bombay. Reinforcements have arrived at Karachi. And I have a decent garrison at Calcutta. So while India may or may not be targeted by Japan, I will make sure I have the main bases protected so that a snap invasion won't succeed.

NoPac: IJ patrol aircraft from Amchitka are getting an eye-full of Allied shipping at Adak Island. No signs of hostile ships in the area. The Amchitka counter-invasion force is about four days out.

[princep01]

Canoe, if Hyuga took two, sub launched torps, then she will be in the yards more than 1-2 months. From my experience, I'd estimate 6-7 months after she gets home (an if, itself). Probably toward the long end of that range, unless he brings the ship out before repairs are complete.

[Canoerebel]

12/29/41

Eastern DEI: Ambon holds, Manado falls (but the enemy didn't bring base forces), two Allied CL/DD TFs are probably two days away from hitting shipping at Manado, and Hyuga only took one torp (the other damage was taken in a surface engagement with CAs Louisville and Australia).

Western DEI: Palembang AV is up to 560. Indian brigade mostly unloaded at Oosthaven with AV 100. I will leave there for now, but should I switch prep from Palembang to Oosthaven? I nearly have enough politcal points to buy one of the Aussie units at Singapore. Should I do so and transport it by air to Palembang or, more likely, Oosthaven? Singapore AV is 925+. I don't want to gut its defenses (both because it serves as a roadblock and because doing so might alert Steve that something unusual is up in the western DEI). No sign of Mini KB at the moment.

NoPac: Part of a base force is unloading at Adak Island, so I've moved the patrol squadron forward from Kodiak. Engineers arrive tonight. Amchitka counterinvasion force is two days out, I believe. No signs of enemy activity. Lex and Sara are near Cold Bay.

[Canoerebel]

12/30/41

Eastern DEI: It appears the Japanese transports have departed Manado, but that other transports are at Ternate. I'm hoping Steve thinks they are "behind the front lines" since he has the BBs at Ambon. I'm diverting my two CL/DD forces to Ternate. They may arrive tonight, or it may be just a tad bit too far. The Allies still hold all of Borneo, Java, and Timor. The deepest IJ pentrations are at Sabang, Mersing, Manado, Ternate, and (as soon as it falls, which will be shortly) Ambon.

Western DEI: No sign of the Mini-KB; BB Kongo is in a TF two hexes east of Singapore. The Japanese are approaching that city, having just taken Johore Bharu. Allied effort to reclaim Sabang failed. Allied AV at Palembang at 577. Indian brigade now fully unloaded at Oosthaven.

Philippines: The Japanese have arrived at Clark Field but are greatly outnumbered. There are many more units at Iba, but I don't know if there's any "oomph" there in the form of big infantry. A small IJ unit is at Manila and could take the base tomorrow, though I'm sending a couple of units back post-haste. I'd rather not let an itsby bitsy force take the base.

India: Prince of Wales arrived at Colombo with light damage two days ago. She's in the yards, but will require 75 days. Quite a surprise given damage only in the 'teens. Repulse arrived today. After refueling, she's heading to Capetown. Her damage is slightly more than PoW.

NoPac: Amchitka counterinvasion force will arrive tonight or tomorrow night. Lex and Sara in position to the rear, just in case an enemy surface combat force should intervene. No signs of the enemy right now.

CenPac: 8th Marines have unloaded at Lihinue (spelling, just east of Pearl). I need to get some reinforcements to Hilo, but what can ya do when there aint no political points?

Strategic Analysis: The enemy is advancing very slowly, in part due to the setbacks suffered at Rabaul and Singkawang early in the game. However, I think Steve is a bit more methodical than Q-Ball. Also, he seems to overlook a few things, like failing to have a base force handy when he took Manado and he hasn't been bombing Singapore or Clark Field to inhibit fortification building. None of his big units have been unleashed yet, so he may pounce on me somewhere in a big way.

[bradfordkay]

"Prince of Wales arrived at Colombo with light damage two days ago. She's in the yards, but will require 75 days. Quite a surprise given damage only in the 'teens"

Yeah, BB damage appears to take the longest to repair. I have a sub in the yard with 20 sys damage and one major flotation damage that will take a grand total of three days to repair, while the Pennsylvania which has only 20 sys damage will take 85 days to repair. Makes sense to me because 20 percent damage on your biggest ships will be a lot more damage than the same percentage on the smaller ones - though maybe the time for the repair is a touch too long.

Steve has always (in the two games I've been playing against him) been very methodical in his advances. I think that the "tendency to overlook things" might just be due to the extra effort in playing two games at once. I've noticed regular mistakes in whose turn he sends me for one....

[Canoerebel]

12/31/41

The Year of Surprise comes to an end, with the Allies acheiving the surprise.

Eastern DEI: A combat TF led by CLs Durban and Danae cactch a lightly guarded transport TF at Ternate, with confirmed sinkings of AMC Saigon Maru and an xAK, with heavy damage to two other xAK and an xAP. The Fuso/Mutsu/Ise group was a few hexes to the south, where it engaged in a brief skirmish with some PT boats near Namlea. Ambon should fall to the enemy tomorrow. Once IJ air is working out of that central location, Allied operations in the eastern DEI will become much tougher.

Western DEI: Kongo TF is sticking its nose out a bit, traveling to a point between Billiton Island and Ketapang. Dutch air sortied in goodly numbers, but failed to score a hit. I don't have big enough ships to contest this incursion. I do have some xAK at Kuching trying to "lift" a CD unit to Oosthaven on the sly. Allied AV at Palembang is up to 599 (forts 2.45%; most of the infantry units are prepped in the high 20s now).

NoPac: Landings begin at Amchitka Island. As expected, disruption is atrocious. I hope to get enough ashore to launch an attack in a few days. The defensive AV can't be more than about 10, so I don't need much. If necessary, I'll call on my carrier strike aircraft for help (but that's still several days away). No sign of enemy opposition.

CenPac: 8th Marines at Lahaina have been joined by a big coastal artillery unit (the other such unit - both start the game at SF - is nearing Midway).

[princep01]

On the PoW repair work, is the ship also receiving an upgrade simultaneously? If so, that might extend the yard time. Like you and Brad, I had noted the increased time to repair BBs and, while I have not tested it thorougly, it might speed things to go Pierside after the float damage is done. Has anyone tested pierside vs yard repair?

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: princep01

Canoe, if Hyuga took two, sub launched torps, then she will be in the yards more than 1-2 months. From my experience, I'd estimate 6-7 months after she gets home (an if, itself). Probably toward the long end of that range, unless he brings the ship out before repairs are complete.

Yep, Maryland took two fish in my game. 240 days in the yard. Your results at home may vary.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: princep01

On the PoW repair work, is the ship also receiving an upgrade simultaneously? If so, that might extend the yard time. Like you and Brad, I had noted the increased time to repair BBs and, while I have not tested it thorougly, it might speed things to go Pierside after the float damage is done. Has anyone tested pierside vs yard repair?

No, it does not help in my opinion. Flotation and engine repair are what slow up a big ship. So by the time you have the floatation done, most of the sys is done as well. I only do it when I need to bring sys down to move a damaged ship.