Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar

[76mm]

ORIGINAL: IdahoNYer
Blizzard battles when the Soviets were successful, resulted in about 1 - 1.5 loss ration German/Soviet. Very seldom did the German losses
grossly exceed the Soviets in a Soviet win. If the Germans held, could expect a few hundred German or less to a couple thousand Soviet.

This is very consistent with what I'm seeing, although sometimes the Sovs do get spanked with several thousand losses.

[IdahoNYer]

OK, screen shot shows the losses as of the beginning of turn 38; March 5, 1942 - official end of the blizzard[:)]

So, some interesting figures. In the first 25 weeks of the war, from Jun 22nd through Dec 4th, the losses were as follows:

German: Soviet
592,760 men 4,313,481
6911 guns 54,477
2820 AFV 14, 828

275,495 killed 816,841
7,956 captured 2,600,354
309,309 disabled 896,286

In the approx 14 weeks of blizzard, the losses were:

German: Soviet
977,458 men 949,881
10,429 guns 10,203
1096 AFV 1558

125,873 killed 614,330
9,372 captured 65,620
842,213 disabled 269,631

What strikes me most from these figures (if my math is right) is the balance of losses during the blizzard - now this includes finishing off the Orel-Bryansk Pocket, but overall, the Germans didn't do too badly, getting almost a 1-1 loss rate overall. The other figure that strikes me is the very large number of Soviet killed - didn't expect that many at all!

Still, the Germans can't affort 1-1 losses, blizzard or no blizzard.

[IdahoNYer]

Forces available on turn 38 below.

Very interesting comparison to what was available 14 turns earlier....

Men: Germans -519,673. Russian +741,717. No real surprises there
Guns: German -3,746. Russian +15,874. Alot more Soviet guns, and were felt in the attacks. Only going to get worse.
AFV: German +109 Russian +508. Very surprised to see more German AFVs, especially since I fought w/the panzers
A/C: German -101 Russian +508. Not as bad as I thought.

[Alikchi2]

Congratulations, sir! You're in decent shape. Press on!

[Speedysteve]

Agreed. Looking good overall. Nice job [8D]

[IdahoNYer]

Forgot this one screen shot last night.

Alot of conversation on the AAR message boards about keeping the panzers away from the fighting in cities during the blizzard. Well, I didn't do that - wanted to keep the panzers as a counter attack force, especially with variable weather if/when we had a snow turn.

This screen shot shows the strength of the German Panzer divisions on March 5th, 1942. I added a brief comment on how the division was "primarily" used during the blizzard. As you can see, a number of divisions are in pretty good shape - although all took a little hit with experience as losses were replaced. Numbers of panzers aren't that bad, except for 19th and 20th which got stuck holding the line for an extended period and got banged around a bit. So did 18th Pz, but was able to pull it out of the line for the final few weeks. 10th Pz was on its own in the south, and "rode hard".

Would I do it this way again, probably....think it was a "realistic" way to fight in the blizzard, and the panzers did provide an good punch for counter attacking a few times.

Now, the real question is, really two questions....

1. When will the Wehrmacht be ready to continue its offensive campaign to knock the Soviets out of the war in 1942?
2. How to best accomplish that?
- Main effort to take Moscow above all else?
- Main effort in the south to drive to Rostov to take out the Stalino area; Crimea and perhaps even Veronezh?
- Combination of both or someone else have other ideas?

Any and all ideas welcome??

[Mynok]

Show your infantry TOE's. That's where the truth lies for 42.

[karonagames]

Show your infantry TOE's. That's where the truth lies for 42.

Agreed. Now is the time to adjust your TOE%s to get your attack divisions in shape for the summer. You should be able to get about 60% of your infantry to 80%+, the rest will have to survive on 50% TOE.

In your situation I would be planning a 2 phase Campaign; the first phase would use 2 Panzer armies assembled around Kharkov to Drive on Rostov, with the objective of isolating the Southern flank. A strong infantry thrust supported by one mech corps along the coast to get the ports and sources of supply. With Soviet attention firmly on the South, and their reserves committed to the defence of the Caucasus, I would start phase 2 probably about early August- the drive on Moscow based on one panzer Army pushing through Kalinin from the North, and one Panzer Army, possibly supported by a second driving through Tula from the South.

[Klydon]

Mynok and BigA beat me to it. Historically, the Germans had several smaller operations in late spring (mostly dealing with Russian attacks, but also retaking some territory). They kicked off the Crimea campaign the first part of June and did not open the "big offensive" until nearly the end of June. I think that is too long to wait to a point to be honest, but you do have to be somewhat careful of mud.

The other thing you will have to deal with is the huge influx of Axis allied forces and what you plan on doing with them.

[IdahoNYer]

As requested, Infantry Div (German only) TOEs for March 5, 1942. This screen shows the units in the worst shape.

[IdahoNYer]

This second screen shot shows the best of the German infantry divisions - including those in the OKH reserve - units either pulled back to Germany for refitting, a couple of units in city garrisons, and reinforcements held their until after the blizzard. Of them, only the 78th Sturm has been comitted forward.

ComradeP - wow, 50% TOE? That's tough. I kept the TOE in 1941 at 80%, in blizzard 70%. Except for panzer/mot units. 50% is tough to swallow - but you're probably right in order to max combat power in the attacking armies.

As for your attack strategy - pretty much what I was thinking actually - plus Crimea. I don't want to wait to much for Moscow though as the Russians will dig and dig making this a bear. But its not too far from the front at least.

The downside to keeping an OKH reserve back in Germany is that its going to take a few weeks for them to rail to the front - probably not in time for a winter counter offensive before mud hits. I may have to settle for another series of local counter attacks with the panzers deployed forward. Will see.

[IdahoNYer]

With Scar heading out of town for bit, and the game on hold till he gets back, here are a couple more screen shots. These next two show the present front line compared with the max gains achieved back on Dec 5th.

It actually felt much worse during play - this doesn't seem all that bad....

The front from the Finns to Tula:

[IdahoNYer]

And from about Orel to the Sea of Azov.

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 38, March 5, 1942.

Blizzard is "officially" over, and snow returns. Hopefully the blizzard will NOT return, but with variable weather, anything is possible. No major crises in the Soviet portion of the last blizzard turn, in fact, Scar pulled back in some places to solidify his defenses. Smart move....

The German army along the front was badly bruised, but no breakthrough was achieved. Infantry divisions are in poor shape, most under 50% at the moment. The panzers are in the best shape, many with over 100 panzers, capable of offensive action.

Time to do some reorganization to prepare for the summer offensives. I put all infantry divisions up to a max TOE of 60% to get all up to at least a minimum strength - will increase those attacking for the summer campaign later. Panzer and Mot divisions are placed at 80% and all support units are pushed up to 100% - hopefully providing stiffeners to the weakenend infantry. I'm also shifting all heavy artillery (over 210mm) to the 18th Army along with additional pioneers and StG Bns to begin preparations to assault into the Crimea - that will be my first Major Offensive...hopefully before the mud hits. 4 additional, near 100% strength infantry divsions are also headed to the 18th Army. For now, along the entire front will be a period of reorganization to set conditions for the Summer offensive - ultimately to take Moscow and the cities we were unable to reach in the South - Voronezh, Stalino and Rostov.

However, with the snow, I am compelled to strike back immediately where I can. Strictly "small solutions", as nothing major is attempted, nor are there any major opportunities apparent. In AGN sector, a Soviet salient protected by only a single division on each flank is encircled. XXXXI PzKps (1xPz,1xMot) assisted by II Korps attacks from the west, and LVI PzKps (2xPz,1xMot) attacks from the SE, cutting off 6 Rifle Divisions. We'll see if the Soviets are strong enough to attack through the encirclement!

[IdahoNYer]

Well south of Moscow, AGC and AGS combine in a bit more of an ambitious encirclement attempt. The Soviet advance elements - about 12 divisions - near Kursk are the objective. Aerial recon shows that there appeared to be a gap between these lead divisions and the apparent Soviet defensive line being established to the rear. This provides a potential opportunity...

2nd Pz Armee concentrates two PzKps south of Orel and attacks SE. Led by the very fresh XL PzKps (2xPz), then followed by XXXXVII PzKps (1xPz, 1xMot) and assisted by 2nd Army, achieves a very solid penetration of Soviet lines. XXIV PzKps (2xPz,1xMot) is brought south from the Kaluga area to counterattack the inevitable Soviet response.

1st Pz Armee concentrates two Pzkps in its attack, and has a tougher time penetrating, but achieves success nontheless. XXXXVIII PzKps (2xPz,1xMot) leads the attack, and then is followed by the III PzKps (1xPz,2xMot) brought from the Kursk area to exploit through XXXXVIII Pzkps and link up with 2nd Pz Armee. With the large concentration of Soviet forces to the east, I fully expect the Soviets to relieve the isolated divisions. This may turn into a significant "furball" before its all over - hence why XXIV PzKps is standing by....

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 40, Mar 19, 1942.

Turns 39 is snow, but turn 40 brings mud. The two pockets eventually are held. The pocket in the north nets 6xRifle Div, while the Kursk pocket nets 12xRifle Divs. The mud makes it more difficult to reduce the Kursk Pocket, but 6th Army infantry forces the surrender of 9 of the divs during the turn.

With the mud, little is done along the front lines - much German infantry is still under the goal of 60% TOE. While the Soviets will use the mud to dig, we still need time to build up infantry and motorized formations. I begin bringing the OKH reserve forward - 3xPz, 1xMot and 14xIN Divs. It will take a while to rail forward, and maybe by the time they get to Minsk, I'll figure out where I'm going to launch the Summer offensive.

Once the Kursk Pocket is reduced, I'll probably pull both 1st and 2nd Pz Armees out of the line - maybe even 4th Pz if I can manage. I'm not sure I need a heavy panzer force to take Moscow, but I will need the panzers if I try the Rostove option in the south. Still debating on the best course here....

[IdahoNYer]

18th Army began its attack against the outer defenses of the Crimea last turn, and were on the verge of breaking into the Crimea itself when General Mud came to the defender's aide. Two Korps attacks failed, while the XXXXVI PzKps pushed the Soviet defenders back, could not advance into the vacated hex. So close!

Still, 4 fresh divisions are being brought forward, and will be able to engage shortly and an additional 160 bombers added to provide support. Perhaps we'll get lucky with another snow turn......

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 41, Mar 26, 1942.

Blizzard returns to the Eastern Front! And thats a good thing! Yes, a good thing. No Blizzard 41 effects for the Germans in March 42. No mud to slow any advance to a crawl. So, the Crimean attack can proceed!

While the rest of the front remains quiet, 18th Army assaults into the Crimea. The primary point to this attack is to prevent the Soviets from using the Crimea as a forward airbase against Ploesti - which he has already hit three times with minimal effect. It should also serve for Scar to consider I may have plans to attack into the Caucasus.

Heavily reinforced to breach the outer Crimean defenses, 18th Army's strength for this assault was: 1xPz, 2xMot, 9xIN,1xMtn Divs; 11xPioneer battalions! and all the artillery over 210mm on the Eastern Front! This was more than enough to punch through the Crimean entrance defenses. Three infantry Korps assault through the level 4 to 1 fortifications, allowing the motorized formations to exploit. The blizzard does slow things down a bit, and the maneuver units don't have the movement points to encirlce the withdrawing Soviet forces. Unfortunately, this should allow the Soviets to regroup before Sevastopol as well as the Kerch Strait.

18th Army will remain in the Crimea to conquer it, and establish a bridgehead in the Kuban. Once that is accomplished, 18th Army will be withdrawn with its heavy augmentation of pioneers and heavy artillery to assault Moscow proper. One Korps will be left behind to augment the Rum 4th Army (we'll try putting Rumanians in the line again....) to hold the gains and prevent any Soviet Amphib operation.

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 42, April 2, 1942. Snow returns.....

Across the front, iInfantry divisions are still well below acceptable strength for sustained offensive operations. Most are still at or below 60% TOE. I've disbanded all unnessary fortification units to try to get some infantry in the pool. About 18 total. While the infantry is probably sufficient to defend or support a limited thrust, its not enough for much else. The exception to this are the rebuilt divisions and the reinforcements that I've held in OKH reserve.

The panzers are in better shape. With good supply, even a panzer division with 75 tanks packs a solid punch. Also, we've gotten the first shipments of the new Pz IVf2 (20th Pz) and StG IIIf (Totenkopf). Not many, but they have started to arrive. Of course, this is balanced by panzer divisions still having large numbers of the Pz38 and Pz II series. Heck, I've still got a division with Pz Is and another with Pz 35s! Talk about relics at this point in the war!

In any case.....

With the snow, AGN launches a small attack to reduce a salient and set conditions for further attacks on Moscow in the summer- hopefully penetrating some of the more robust fortifications. 9th Army opens the attack with infantry, and XXXXI PzKps (2xPz, Mot Bde) with the newly refitted 12th Pz (160xPz, but many Pz38s) attacking to make a very narrow penetration from the north. 4th Pz Armee attacks with infantry initially, then XIV PzKps and finally with LVI PzKps - all to gain about 20 miles! Soviets are heavily fortified, backed up by tank Bde reserves and deployed in depth. Progress is slow, but steady and linkup is made - hopefully a solid enough ring to hold the encircled 7 Divs.

This result of this attack is pretty much what I expected - very heavy resistance made up of fortifications deployed in depth. Not great tank country, and little chance for a rapid exploitation to encircle Moscow once summer comes. If Moscow is to be taken, its going to be by brute force - expensive, slow, attritional attacks.....not good.

[IdahoNYer]

Remainder of the main front line remains quiet. 1st Pz Armee is pulled out of the line near Kursk, to move further south and prepare for summer. I really don't want to risk wasting combat power right now attacking fortified lines for little gain. Without strong infantry, I'm not going to accomplish much.

In the Crimea, Scar held further north than expected - he did isolate XXXXI PzKps, but that was easily cleared up by the advancing I Korps infantry. It did severly limit any further forward progress of course....

XXXXVI PzKps will push towards the Kerch Strait and leave the infantry Korps to push on toward Sevastopol. That assumes we'll get lucky and draw another snow turn instead of mud of course.