Pride goes before a Fall Blau - 42-45 GC AAR

[Tarhunnas]

As a comparison, here are the losses form the subsequent Soviet turn, when the Soviets are attcking. Not unexpectedly, they get a better ratio, as they can choose their attacks.

[Tarhunnas]

Of course, if I retreated, there would probably be fewer opportunities for the Soviets to set up deliberate attacks, which would in all likelihood lower the number of losses. But that would be a temporary effect, until the Soviets came up on my next defence line.

Here are the losses for my my subsequent counterattacks. I belive I will continue to fight it out for now, as it is during my turn that Ivan suffers the most.

[Tarhunnas]

Statistics apart, Turn 32, 31st january, was something of an Ouch-turn. Major breakthrough east of Voroshilovgrad. One Rumanian and one German division surrounded, and I cannot manage to free them. Maybe the price of hanging on for too long...

[Tarhunnas]

Turn 34, 13th february 1943.

Major Soviet breakthrough in the Rostov sector. No troops surrounded that I cannot free, but they are pressing me back by sheer numbers. I have to withdraw from Rostov. I also abandon Rzhev and start to evacuate the Rzhev bulge.

[Tarhunnas]

Taking stock of the situation, turn 37, end of winter, march 1943.

This is the northern sector, with main Soviet thrusts marked. I am slowly being pushed back, but no units surrounded and the Soviets are paying dearly for the ground they take. Note the motor pool, still the only real bright spot. If it came down to trucks, we would surely be winning the war.

[Tarhunnas]

Here is the central sector. Troublespot in the Tula - Kaluga area. Some divisions have been temporarily surrounded from time to time, but timely counterthrusts by our depleted panzer units always manage to open a retreat path. A hungarian division has been given the honorable task of holding Voronezh. We still hold a perilous supply line to the city.

[Tarhunnas]

And the south. This is the sector where the Soviets are putting on the strongest pressure. Rostov is gone, as is Boguchar. Voroshilovgrad is almost on the frontline. The front was in tatters, but the situation was saved in the nick of time by the arrival of a strong SS-division of the II SS panzer corps and some decent infantry divisions from the west. I am keeping the SS guys back a little in the hope that Ivan will over-commit and make himself vulnerable to a little counterattack...

[Tarhunnas]

Turn 40. 27th march 1943

The fighting has degenerated into a slugfest with the Soviets gaining a hex here and there every turn. Most of my units are desperately weak, the infantry averages 2 in strength, the armor hardly better. Voronezh falls this turn. Mud, which should cool things down. I was lucky I had no surrounded units, as it can be a problem when the Soviets have surrounded my units during their snow turn and they can get very hard to extricate during mud.

Losses so far:

Men 2.48
Art 2.39
AFV 3.40

When those are compared to the losses in october, it is clear that the numbers are not improving, except in AFVs. Might that be because there simply is more Soviet armor around to destroy? Below, losses in october.

Men 2.64 - 1
Guns 4 - 1
AFV 2.9 - 1

Note that the mud explains trifling losses during my turn. Usually, they are about 10 x higner, though the proportion of Soviet/German casualties during a German turn is fairly typical. The problem is that the majority of losses for both sides occur during the Soviet attacks, and then the ratio, while still favoring the Axis, is not nearly as good.

[molchomor]

Look at the positive side of things, your opponent does not have unlimited APs as the AI has in my '42 game. So he cannot be focusing everywhere and make every unit a guards unit, gather your LAH etc. SS divs. that should arrive around now and strike where he does not suspect it (and where he is not entrenched as a single rifle div dug in seems to stop about anything?  

[Tarhunnas]

Turn 44. April 1943, still mud.

Nothing of note happening due to the mud. Both sides preparing for the summer.

[Tarhunnas]

After a conference with experts discussing manpower and armaments production, there has been a change of policy. At the Krupp works, masses of anti aircraft guns and artillery of all kinds are dumped into giant cauldrons to be melted down and turned into rifles and machineguns. (TOE of artillery support units, especially AA-units, have been lowered to 50, see tm.asp?m=2769091&mpage=3&key=&#2771177).

[Tarhunnas]

Turn 50!

Still mud although it is now june 1943. I have steadily rebuilt my forces. There is considerable improvement in the armored formations, which apart from the SS divisions are now between 8 and 10 in CV. The infantry is still weak, but some inmprovement is showing after recent manpower management changes. Average strength of infantry divisions is about 3 or 4.

Not much happening at the front due to the mud. The occasional attack here and there, but nothing of note.

[Jajusha]

Been following this AAR closely, as I'm playing Soviet in a 42 campaign (AAR being written by Fiva55). I lost more inf divisions then your opponent, but almost no armored corps.

The front lines couldn't look more different. I'm convulsing in the north, while your opponent had to give ground in the south. I still think the salients in the north are too good to ignore at the start of the game. I lost alot of Inf there in the first 10 turns of the game, and still haven't regained my balance. Your 3 months ahead of us, but i think your opponent looks quite more balanced then I'm feeling in my game (i tried to retake Rzevh around the turn you retreated from it, and i smashed against a brutal counterattack). Let's see if my opponents production can keep up with the losses in the full force of 43.

[CapAndGown]

ORIGINAL: Jajusha

Been following this AAR closely, as I'm playing Soviet in a 42 campaign (AAR being written by Fiva55). I lost more inf divisions then your opponent, but almost no armored corps.

The front lines couldn't look more different. I'm convulsing in the north, while your opponent had to give ground in the south. I still think the salients in the north are too good to ignore at the start of the game. I lost alot of Inf there in the first 10 turns of the game, and still haven't regained my balance. Your 3 months ahead of us, but i think your opponent looks quite more balanced then I'm feeling in my game (i tried to retake Rzevh around the turn you retreated from it, and i smashed against a brutal counterattack). Let's see if my opponents production can keep up with the losses in the full force of 43.

I don't know whether going north or south is better. If we compare the number of Soviet divisions that can be encircled on the first turn in the south we find 55 rifle divisions and a number of tank brigades. If we look at the Rzhev-Demyansk potential pocket (excluding those units just north of Smolensk which are doomed no matter what) then the number of divisions is actually less; around 45. There are a number of rifle brigades in there, but I don't think there are 30, which is what you would need to make up for the 10 division difference.

After that, it is even more difficult to predict where the greater gains are to be made. But the area south of Kaluga certain is better tank country and therefore more likely to yield encirclements than the north.

The huge difference between these two games is the loss of Leningrad in the one and not the other. I don't think that is something I would want to bank on if I were the German player. I think there are more possibilities down south than a gamble for Leningrad justifies.

[Tarhunnas]

It would appear that the German army is headed for an almost inevitable manpower crisis sooner or later against any competent Soviet player. I would judge my chances as pretty slim in this game, and to be honest, I wouldn't even think of launching any kind of summer offensive. On the contrary, I expect my front to crumble relatively soon once the mud season ends and the Soviet offensive gets going again.

Jajusha, I think it was an elegant move by Fiva55 in your game. I would say it looks more impressive than my accomplishments. It will be interesting to follow and compare. I couldn't judge which strategy is more effective in the long run though, too early for that. I don't think you have to worry in the long term, you will almost certainly prevail through sheer numbers sooner or later.

[fiva55]

Hi, I have also been following your excellent AAR closely.
Agreed that the sheer weight of numbers of the Soviets is overwhelming.
And I have indeed noticed that my manpower is slowing dwindling, but still manageable. My armanents points on the other hand, is at an all point low by now.

[karonagames]

I couldn't judge which strategy is more effective in the long run though, too early for that. I don't think you have to worry in the long term, you will almost certainly prevail through sheer numbers sooner or later.

1942 is not as one sided as you think. In testing (unfortunately there was not much testing of 1942) we always talked about applying "AP pressure" which means forcing the soviets to spend APs when and where he doesn't want to.

The Soviets have to build an army capable of attritioning the Axis to death, and to do this they need artillery, and lot's of it. They start the 1943 campaign with more than enough. In 1942 they have to build it and pay for it.

If your opponents are slow in building the artillery/mechanised/avalanche/juggernaut/breakthrough forces, you can and will survive. Once he can bring 5000+ guns per combat into play, you know you are in for a long hard slog back to Berlin.

I think both the current 1942 AARs could see a minor Axis Victory, by using Ali's "Rope-a-dope" combined with floating like a butterfly and stinging like a bee in a panzer.

In neither AAR has the Axis lost 20+ divisions at Stalingrad, so they have that much manpower in the bank to start with.

[Tarhunnas]

ORIGINAL: BigAnorak

I couldn't judge which strategy is more effective in the long run though, too early for that. I don't think you have to worry in the long term, you will almost certainly prevail through sheer numbers sooner or later.

1942 is not as one sided as you think. In testing (unfortunately there was not much testing of 1942) we always talked about applying "AP pressure" which means forcing the soviets to spend APs when and where he doesn't want to.

The Soviets have to build an army capable of attritioning the Axis to death, and to do this they need artillery, and lot's of it. They start the 1943 campaign with more than enough. In 1942 they have to build it and pay for it.

If your opponents are slow in building the artillery/mechanised/avalanche/juggernaut/breakthrough forces, you can and will survive. Once he can bring 5000+ guns per combat into play, you know you are in for a long hard slog back to Berlin.

I think both the current 1942 AARs could see a minor Axis Victory, by using Ali's "Rope-a-dope" combined with floating like a butterfly and stinging like a bee in a panzer.

In neither AAR has the Axis lost 20+ divisions at Stalingrad, so they have that much manpower in the bank to start with.

The problem appears to me to be that I am in worse shape with infantry than the German army is in the 43-45 scenario, despite not losing 20 divisions at Stalingrad. It also depends on what shape the Soviets are in of course. I have a feeling I hurt them worse in units destroyed and losses than the Germans did historically, but OTOH I didn't hurt them as much in production. I really don't see how I can hold their summer offensive, but I will certainly give it the best I've got. I have slightly above 15k rifle squads by your method of reckoning, which appears worrying. The number is going up slightly from turn to turn, but losses have been very low the last 8 turns or so due to the mud. I do not feel confident I can keep the numbers up when the weather clears.

[karonagames]

I can't say to much because I have seen the other side. It will be interesting to see how much you can catch up with the squads, but on the bright side you must have more artillery and 88s because that's where your armaments points were going, so they should do some damage.

You can survive around 16k squads, you just have to be very careful.

edit: and make sure your elefants, panthers and tigers are in the right places to support the most combats.

[ComradeP]

My opinion remains that the 1942 campaign is too easy for the Soviets because they can use their massive rail capacity to rail reinforcements to any breakthrough. It is also currently impossible to cripple the Soviets through regular attacking, you really need encirclements and if you're playing a competent opponent, there won't be many in 1942. Of course, the Soviets will more or less always advance at a snail's pace even in 1945, but they can already become sort of unstoppable in 1942.