Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Cribtop]

I concur.

The question growing more interesting by the day is "What is Chez' plan?" He appears to be committing minimal forces to both Singers and Luzon, and is even moving slowly in the DEI, Burma and SE Fleet AOs. He must be gathering major strength for a big attack, and it appears this attack will be of the "long leap then backfill" variety. None of what's happening makes sense if his target was India or Oz, as the standard DEI and Singers conquests are almost pre-requisites for these moves (or at least seizing Rabaul and PM if eastern Oz is the target).

Thus it begins to appear that CR's hunch of Hawaii is gaining credence. Either that or a Fiji "cut off Oz" gambit, but that doesn't produce enough VPs.

[PresterJohn001]

For me in Mid '43 Palembang produces 43% of my total oil. No major centres lost so far and Chinese oil taken too. It may be survivable and infact i was quite looking forward to seeing how well it could be managed in the BigBabes game. I strongly suspect tho that the Allies could easily exploit the fuel deficiency and crash the Japanese economy/position sometime in '43. High tempo, threats that the KB needs to react to and as much attrition as possible. The Japanese player will seek to minimize ship movements, absolutely optimise fuel efficiency of hauling etc and minimize combat losses to reduce HI use in replacements. Probably switch off all merchants production except maybe CVE's, stop all subs, no ship acceleration. Maybe even stop most of the new ships and concentrate on an airforce which doesn't consume fuel (yeah i know !).

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: PresterJohn

For me in Mid '43 Palembang produces 43% of my total oil. No major centres lost so far and Chinese oil taken too. It may be survivable and infact i was quite looking forward to seeing how well it could be managed in the BigBabes game. I strongly suspect tho that the Allies could easily exploit the fuel deficiency and crash the Japanese economy/position sometime in '43. High tempo, threats that the KB needs to react to and as much attrition as possible. The Japanese player will seek to minimize ship movements, absolutely optimise fuel efficiency of hauling etc and minimize combat losses to reduce HI use in replacements. Probably switch off all merchants production except maybe CVE's, stop all subs, no ship acceleration. Maybe even stop most of the new ships and concentrate on an airforce which doesn't consume fuel (yeah i know !).

Analyses which have been shared with me do show that Japanese fleet and merchant usage is a key variable in whether Palembang can be ignored for a significant portion of the war. But the Japanese player also has a great deal of control over his use of ship fuel. He doesn't have to make the KB go charging all over creation, tearing from the Kuriles to the IO and back again. He doesn't have to do deep raids. He doesn't have to lavishly supply the Marshalls and Gilberts, etc. It's fine to advocate that the Allied player try to force him to engage, but the Japanese player can choose where that happens, either close to home or far out east. In 1942 and some of 1943 the Allied player's upgrades and other force variables are going to make a "forward bleed" strategy expensive in sinkings and damage, and his yards and large harbors are far to the rear in those months.

As before, any advocacy of letting Palembang alone in the initial advances rests on the Japanese not ignoring the other core sources of POL: Borneo, Java, and northern Sumatra. The Japanese can't not take P. and also dwaddle on Borneo for example, unless he perhaps has the most aggressive auto-vic plan imaginable in mind.

But a lot of common Japanese sea-borne practices might be optional if a fuel/oil conservation mode of play is chosen. There's something to be said for making the Allies come to you, with the inherent risks to him that entails.

[Canoerebel]

1/7/42

The Japanese have been uncharacteristically quiet everywhere (except China) and have failed to make the minimally necessary advances in the DEI, leading me to believe that something huge is up...but I just don't know what it might be.

Eastern DEI: The only major Allied operation here at the moment is the attempt to retrieve the big CD force from Tarakan for transport to Oosthaven. I've spread the four Allied cruiser/DD forces amonng three Java bases so that a sudden carrier raid doesn't catch all my eggs in one basket. I'm also retrieving the Kendari garrison to Soerabaja by airlift.

Western DEI: Palembang AV up to 671; Oosthaven AV to 154; Singapore AV to 935. The Japanese haven't crossed the causeway into Singers, yet, and they discontinued bombing efforts after the fighter ambush of several days ago. Port Blair AV is up to 48 and should reach 50 before the Japanese eliminate 6th Indian Brigade (currently at Alor Star). Somebody asked about Port Blair - against a competent Japanese player I'd be inclined to create a garrison strong enough to withstand a paratroop assault, but not strong enough to constitute a major POW camp when the enemy comes calling in strength.

NoPac: Lex and Sara are retiring to the West Coast to join Ent and York (my spidey senses are tingling over Hawaii). Most of the RCT is ashore at Attu, and the battalion at Dutch Island. Engineers are on the way to Attu.

CenPac: An tank regiment is boarding transports bound for Hilo. I need to send a RCT, but I'm reluctant to spend the necessary PP as I want to use them in the DEI to pull one of the Aussie brigades from Singers when the time comes. I'm very conflicted over which is the most pressing need. I'll probably guess wrong.

One Month into the War: The Allies are in great position at the moment, with no active IJ offensives apparent (other than routine stuff at Singers and on Luzon). This is the calm before the storm, so I'm trying to make sure I have appropriate pickets in place. The reshuffling of forces in the DEI is a high priority. I've also taken steps to reinforce Sumatra in a major way if Steve should make a major move on Hawaii or Australia (two Aussie brigades now at Aden are bording ships bound for Sumatra). American aircraft will begin arriving in big numbers in Capetown any day now. I've got to decide whether to send them to Oz or India, with the former probably to get the nod (for use in the DEI) if things continue to look favorable over the coming weeks. Oz is underprotected at the moment, as is Hawaii's big island...but that's the tense situation caused by political point shortages.

[Canoerebel]

1/8/42

Western DEI: Palembag AV 678; Oosthaven 159; Singapore 940. The Allies are hard at work transfering units to Oosthaven and Palembang. Right now, all eyes are on a lone xAKL carrying some big guns from the Tarakan CD unit to Oosthaven. It's a small ship in dangerous waters, so the odds are against her. No signs of enemy movement in the area. The recent fighter ambush even squelched enemy bombing raids, except in the central Malay peninsula where Steve is working over what's left of 6th Indian Brigade (most of that unit has been split between Palembang and Port Blair).

Eastern DEI: The weird quiet continues.

Philippines: IJA 21st Division has arrived at Clark Field. That's the first enemy division I've seen anywhere except China. SigInt had given repeated indications this unit was aboard marus bound for Babeldoab, so I wonder if Steve had some change of heart that led him to change his plans.

Enemy Bombing: The Japanese are pounding away at units on Luzon, but failing to hit port or airfield facilities so that base-buidling continues. I think Clark and Bataan could both reach level four forts if Steve doesn't do something. Same thing down at Singapore and Palembang. No effort being made to halt base building. Curious.

[GreyJoy]

You really think it's possibile for your opponent to invade Hawaii letting you sit in western DEI so easily? Wouldn't be that too risky for him?

[Canoerebel]

Sure, it's possible. Whether or not it's probable I can't say. That fact that this is Scenario Two means alot of things are possible. The fact that I don't know my opponent well makes it difficult to figure out what he's thinking and what he might do. I don't think Hawaii is a Japanese player's strongest gambit, but a good Japanese player might prove me wrong. However, at the moment I'd rate Hawaii as third or fourth on the list of likely IJ grand strategies. That's high enough to have my attention.

[Canoerebel]

1/9/42

Western DEI: Palembang AV 683 (forts about to go to three); Oosthaven AV 164 (forts about to go to two); Singapore AV 941 (forts 3.5). The xAKL carrying most of the Tarakan CD guns to Oosthaven mated up with two destroyers and will pass Balikpan tomorrow. Port Blair AV up to 50. The Japanese should wipe out the British units (including the remainder of 6th Indian Brigade) at Alor Star tomorrow.

Indian Ocean: Weird SigInt report of a maru near the Maldive Islands. Das darf nicht var sein! Transports carryng an Indian brigade from Colombo to Oosthaven is nearing a point well south of Sabang, so another five or six days should bring them to port.

China: A little dance is going on up around Chengyang and Loyang as I try to get my garrisons back to the forested hexes north and east of Sian.

Luzon: Over the past few days, the Allies have roughed up an SNLF at Manila while a Japanese regiment roughed up a Philippino division at Cabantuan. Clark Field forts will go to four in just a day or two.

NoPac: Japanese TF of unknown composition is approaching the western Aleutians. I'm pulling back transports and my CA Houston TF just a bit until I know what it is and where it's heading.

CenPac: Guam fell.

[princep01]

Just one sailor's view, but I believe that your early aggressive moves, along with the tactical defeats you laid on JJ, have made your opponent overly cautious. This, in turn, has had a strategic impact, to wit: his advance has become unusally slow. By the time the Japanese tide kisses the shore at Palembang, it will be reduced to a gentle wave. It is still early, but you may have already won the war as a result of your early aggression. Nicely done. Bill Halsey wasn't always wrong.

[JohnDillworth]

I think your early slap down of his AO's make long leaps a lot tougher that that hight have been. It would be hard to keep the KB fueled up around Hawaii for a long time. He might get a ton of fuel if he captures it but unless he is on the way it might already be too late.

[Canoerebel]

Gentlemen,

I'm compiling a list of Japanese divisisions at the start of the game, but because several are broken up into smaller units, I haven't been able to put my finger on them. For instance, I'm not sure where 1st and 2nd Divisions begin the game. Here's the list of "unrestricted" IJA divisions at the beginning of the game or in early 1942. This is Scenario Two, so I think there should be about fourteen divisions. I've come up with ten. Can you guys fill in the mssing links?

1st - ?
2nd - ?
4th - Osaka
5th - Samah
21 - Shanghai
33 - Nagasaki
38 - 78/60
48 - Pescadores
55 - Battembang
Imperial Guards - Battembang
4th Guards - arrives 3/42 at Cam Ran Bay
6th Guards - arrives 2/42 at Cam Ran Bay

[witpqs]

Hey CR - is your game with Q-Ball dead, then?

As far as game start Intel:

• Start a head to head game of the same scenario (maybe use a different install to avoid screwing up things).
• Run Tracker with it set up as you being IJ.
• Export the LCU's to a CSV file.
• Open the CSV in Open Office (or MS Office). Freeze the window, sort the way you like it, put on auto-filtering, and pretend you are Allied Intelligence Central.

[8D]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Hey CR - is your game with Q-Ball dead, then?

As far as game start Intel:

• Start a head to head game of the same scenario (maybe use a different install to avoid screwing up things).
• Run Tracker with it set up as you being IJ.
• Export the LCU's to a CSV file.
• Open the CSV in Open Office (or MS Office). Freeze the window, sort the way you like it, put on auto-filtering, and pretend you are Allied Intelligence Central.

[8D]

Q-Ball just announced he's starting a second CG and AAR as the Soviets, and WitE is in the midst of a "tear up the carpet, floor, sub-floor, sills and joists and re-pour the foundation footings" patch, so I guess his mind isn't over here . . .

Aside, but how could they ship WitE so massively unbalanced that every PBEM CG game ends in or just after the first winter with the Germans prostrate in the snow? If you want to see a development train-wreck go over and read a bit. They're slapping on lipstick and eyeliner, but it's still a pig. Kind of equivalent to the entire USN getting 99 float damge en masse on April 1, 1942.

As far as CR developing an intel center through CSV files, come on, man! The dude doesn't even have a cell phone!!!! [8D][:'(]

[Nemo121]

He doesn't need a CSV file. The Japs aren't in mainland China ( too late if they had been shipped there), they aren't in th Kuriles, they may be heading for Hawaii, , they may be heading for Suva, they may be heading for NZ, they may be heading for Eastern Oz, they aren't in the Phillipines or Singers in sufficient force for this to be a full bore drive on India. It is simple strategic maths, Japan is focussing on the 3o'clock to 6 o'clock section of the map.

Where in that area CDJ is aiming for is complicated by the fact that I doubt he will be making the strategically optimal choice -I said very early on in this thread that he was making seriously sub-optimal choices. Time has borne this out.

So, I would suggest his plan is to hit either Suva and then NZ or Caledonia and then NZ with a view to bisecting the map. The problem is that with off-channel maps this won't actually stop transfers, just slow them. He should be heading for Hawaii ( if this is his plan) but I doubt he has got his strategic appreciation right so more likely it'll be the southern axis... A poor choice.

As to the oilers -John, their loss will have no impact on any of the current fighting. They are only useful in supporting raiding or deep invasions, neither of which CDJ has ever seemed familiar with. I do think CRs raiding is being effective in tampering with his opponent's Ooda loop though.


As to the strategic analysis. Alfred is spot on, albeit a bit impolitic. The strategic situation and correlation is crystal clear. Many of the options bandied about recently don't stand up once you analyse past the most superficial of issues.


Palembang: it isn't essential to Japan ( I did the analysis which showed the Jap economy can run full bore without any input from Palembang) BUT it is essential if Japan wants to be able to sustain a war of attrition as it supports significant expansion of the Japanese HI. So, his not bothering with Palembang immediately tells us what sort of war he is going for - albeit that given his clear war aims and the clarity of his current plan for the next six months it is clear that his plans for the next six months won't actually properly support hid overall aims - bad, bad strategic analyse and planning on his part. Canoerebel just needs to stay in there and CDJ will handily defeat himself.

CR: I wouldn't worry about India. A strong northern Sumatra protects it rather well AND CDJ's focus is on the 3 to 6 o'clock area anyways, most likely the 4:30 to 6 area specifically really.


Ps ija 21st rerouting is almost certainly a sign of his changing his strategic plans and that's a sign he got his initial strategic calculations wrong -something which is very worrying for him as he had perfect intel for their planning, as I said before, he won't win this game. That much was clear from the end of the first ten days.


Sorry for the semaphoric nature of the post but typing on the iPad isn't the easiest so I'm summarising a lot.

[paullus99]

Strategically, Canoerebel will get the most benefit out of the concentration at Palembang by creating the impression of strength in an area that is "historically" weak & usually a fairly easy walk-over for the typical Japanese player - again, he would lose those troops anyway & a concentration here gives him the best "cost-benefits" ratio for their use. It also, in the best case, turn into a real quagmire for his opponent - especially if he undercommits because of some really large operation geared somewhere else (the autovic offensive).

I do agree with Nemo's assessment that your opponent is probably looking at the East/South/Southeastern part of the map - it doesn't make sense not to go full-bore into the DEI or Singapore if his overall plan includes India. He's not trying to clear his flanks (which would involve grabbing all the DEI & Malaya, ASAP) which leads me to, again, agree with Nemo.

[Canoerebel]

1/10/42

Assessment: Thank you for the suggestions, oberservations, and deductions. I don't think my opponent is "cowed," and I do think he's up to something big for this reason. If he had been cowed by the losses he has taken to date, he would be looking at the "sure things" and would have already moved on some of the oil producing bases (that he hasn't moved on any of these is pretty interesting). So I think he must be hoarding all his ships for something big. With the DEI still mostly in Allied hands, it has to be something from (as Nemo puts it) 12 to 6. The Aleutians don't make sense, so that leaves 3 to 6. Hawaii is a big roll of the dice and I don't know if Steve is a gambler, but from a "hoarding all his shipping" standpoint, Hawaii would make sense. The SE islands (Pago Pago, Suva, New Caledonia, New Zealand) hold kind of a mystical attraction to Japanese players who are truly enamored with the real war, so they generally attract more attention than they may be worth. As for Oz, I haven't reinforced this, yet, so it is certainly vulnerable, but I believe I know how I would deal with an invasion there should it come about. Right now, India isn't on my radar simply because the Japanese can't head that way until they have Singapore (and probably Palembang if held strongly by the Allies, as is the case here). There's just no indication yet that Steve is orchestrating things for a move on India. Finally, at this point in the game I still have to err on the side of assuming Steve is aggressive and capable of a big move deep into Allied territory. If Steve moves in a big way from 3 to 6, the Allies will definately convert over to a full-blown "defend Sumatra" campaign, with lots more units going there.

Western DEI: Palembang AV at 686 (and forts just went to 3); Oosthaven at 188 (forts 1.82); Singapore 941 (3.53). The transports carrying an Indian brigade to Oosthaven is perhaps five days out. An Indian brigade newly prepping for Benkolen will arrive at Colombo in two or three days, board transports already there, and move east. No signs of major IJ forces in this region.

Eastern DEI: Japanese TFs of unknown composition and size on a SW bearing nearing Ternate; most likely target if it continues on this course is Kendari.

China: Large IJA concentration to the north, east, and southeast of Chengyang/Loyang. I'm moving my troops back towards the forests to the west and southwest where I can defend the approaches to Sian in depth. Despite some hiccups in the movement routine, it appears that my troops are in good shape to withdraw from the front lines in order.

NoPac: No sign of that IJ TF sighted west of the Attu Island yesterday.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

...and I do think he's up to something big...

If I might share a comical observation: Your opponent solicitation posting stipulated that the IJ player goes for auto-victory. This reminds me of the scene from Monty Python and the Holy Grail, where the knights are getting their orders from God and one of them remarks "Oh, that's a good idea, Lord!"

The rejoinder was "OF COURSE IT'S A GOOD IDEA!!!"

[:D]

[Canoerebel]

1/11/42

In many ways, this was not a good day for Japan, and it seems to offer alot of additional information upon which to evaluate what my opponent might be up to and how aggressive and thorough he will be.

NoPac: A two-carrier IJ TF (Shokaku and Zuikaku, plus CAs Aoba and Kinugasa) ran across a picket AM patrolling southwest of Amchitka Island. No harm done, and the KB doesn't fly any strikes during the day. This TF is covering a reinforcmeent convoy bound for Amchitka. Lex and Sara just reached Seattle, so I can't respond, but I can think of plenty of good reasons for a Japanese player not to commit a couple of carriers way up here. I'd gladly take a 1:1 contest if my carriers were still available. Also, this tells me where two big carriers are. (Note: Shokaku took a torpedo shortly after Pearl Harbor, so she's already repaired).

Eastern DEI: The IJ shipping recently seen moving SW seems to have pulled into Ternate. I thought they might be bound for Kendari. It's time for Steve to press down here, so I'll keep an eye out for developments. The xAKL carrying most of Tarakan's CD's guns is nearing Bamjermasin enroute to Oosthaven.

Singapore: The Japanese crossed the causeway and shock attacked at Singapore. The attack was understrength - just one division (Imperial Guards) and some help. The attack came off at 1:5, didn't touch the forts, and cost the Japanese 400 squads (200 combat). This is a bad start for Japan. It's also the reason I decided not to pull out the two Australian brigades. I had a pretty good hunch that Japan might not bring enough. I considered counter-attacking tomorrow, but the Allied AV dropped from 941 to 791. I'd rather recover the disruption than roll the dice. [In my other game, Q-Ball's troops crossed ten days later with two divisions opposing just 750 AV; Q-Ball got 1:1 odds and dropped forts from three to two.]

Western DEI: For Steve to make any headway in Singapore, he'll need to bring forward another division. If he was prepared to do so, he may be in fine shape. If he isn't, this could mess up Japan's timetable. Meanwhile, I will continue beefing up Sumatra's defenses. At the moment, Palembang is 691 with 3.02 forts; Oosthaven is 202 with 1.9 forts).

China: The Chinese stacks at Loyang and Chengyang were able to pull back and should be able to make the forested hexes to the rear.

So now What? The Allies have two Indian brigades and two Aussie brigades on transports bound for Sumatra. I'm giving careful consideration to beefing that up and also reinforcing Port Blair. One RCT of Americal just arrived at East Coast. I'm sending it on to Capetown. An argument could be made to send it west to Hawaii, but I'm increasingly inclined to make a big play in Sumatra, the Bay of Bengal, and possible Burma if the Japanese move east or south towards Hawaii, New Zealand, or Australia. In other words, rather than feeding men and ships into that battle in early 1942, I'll reinforce in SEAC.

[JohnDillworth]

NoPac: A two-carrier IJ TF (Shokaku and Zuikaku, plus CAs Aoba and Kinugasa) ran across a picket AM patrolling southwest of Amchitka Island. No harm done, and the KB doesn't fly any strikes during the day. This TF is covering a reinforcmeent convoy bound for Amchitka. Lex and Sara just reached Seattle, so I can't respond, but I can think of plenty of good reasons for a Japanese player not to commit a couple of carriers way up here. I'd gladly take a 1:1 contest if my carriers were still available. Also, this tells me where two big carriers are. (Note: Shokaku took a torpedo shortly after Pearl Harbor, so she's already repaired).

Goodness me! A Japanese player who splits the KB?![&o]

[Cribtop]

The heavy move in NOPAC could be designed to cover the flank of a Hawaii op (or could be maskirovka or a concession to the fact you like to make moves in the Kuriles). Interesting indeed. I will also +1 the poster who mentioned that you explicitly asked for an opponent who would go hard for auto victory. This opens up high risk high yield options if the Japanese player truly goes for broke.