How to lose the war - PDH vs Cpt Flam

[PeeDeeAitch]

I am just kind of playing.  It seems too out of sorts to do that anyway. I am trying out the "rubberband" defense to some extent, but that is trading space for casualties.  I really want to play a hard game, not do too many super gamey things, and still be able to fight on.

[EntropyAvatar]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
Big Anorak cites 16K as the Rifle Squad number that leads to collapse. Did you really lose 8K Rifle Squads in 2 turns? That's bad. Real bad.

I don't think he's really lost those squads, they are just sitting in the pool. Squads damaged by the blizzard get sent back to the pool, then turned around and sent back to the front line as reinforcements. Since PDH has advanced further than most Axis players, his infantry divs are slower to receive these reinforcements.

Having so much manpower and squads in the pool is certainly a short-term problem, but we don't know if it's an indication of a long-term problem until we see the number disabled and killed.

[PeeDeeAitch]

Ask and you shall get. Below is a comparison from turn 24 losses and turn 29 losses - both at the end of my play.




I have taken 17.5k killed, but 308k disabled. My manpower pool is about 640k...

The math seems to indicate a lot of my squad losses are temporary losses, at least equal to my disabled. Of course, they are not at present in my units but basking in the sun on the Italian Riviera...

[PeeDeeAitch]

January 8th, and the blizzard starts to bite. Finally the Soviets are getting units ready, but a month later than they might have had I not hurt them so. Of course, by now my units are a mess, but I still have fall back points. 5 new divisions (3 rested in warsaw until this turn, now they are hunkered in Minsk) head to the front - even 5 units in Feb that are 4 CV can mess up plans of the Soviets.

This turn also saw the first "Shoot and Scoot" attacks by the panzers. Getting close to the cities with a panzer corps in it can bloody the nose of the Soviets - if you see your opponent doing this, Soviet players, proceed with caution. Even with winter reduction, 2 armor and 1 motorized can route a single unit, push back a stack.

My lines will end up (likely) near the 1942 line it seems, Moscow will fall but the fight will be there I believe to bloody the Soviets, unless there is some sort of chaos storm the Stalino Line will also hold. All in all this has been a far better first 6 weeks than I imagined. Now to live through the rest...

On to the Oder!

[Aditia]

Quick noob question, why are soviet cavalry units important (as compared to inf/mech/tank units)?

[PeeDeeAitch]

They have great movement, so they can infiltrate really well in winter. Plus, they are hardier (by far) than the tank brigades the Soviets have - so they are far stronger on attack and defense. The Axis fears a rush a cavalry corps in the first winter - the good soviet will horde them like gold until blizzard.

[Klydon]

The other thing they have is they convert extra uncontested hexes, which the tank brigades do not do either. 

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: EntropyAvatar

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
Big Anorak cites 16K as the Rifle Squad number that leads to collapse. Did you really lose 8K Rifle Squads in 2 turns? That's bad. Real bad.

I don't think he's really lost those squads, they are just sitting in the pool. Squads damaged by the blizzard get sent back to the pool, then turned around and sent back to the front line as reinforcements. Since PDH has advanced further than most Axis players, his infantry divs are slower to receive these reinforcements.

Having so much manpower and squads in the pool is certainly a short-term problem, but we don't know if it's an indication of a long-term problem until we see the number disabled and killed.

Right, I know they are actually just disabled and/or returned to the Manpower Pool. But it's still a problem, because when you also factor in the CV changes, that is a reduction of 83% in effective combat rifle strength in 3 weeks (from 28K to 16K/3). A bit harsh there! That also makes the Wehrmacht very easy to push around the rest of the winter, not just due to reduced CV values.

PDH will be fine, only because he has so much space to give back, but in any "normal" game, he would be completely screwed.

[PeeDeeAitch]

A couple of notes, January does see the beginning of a bounce back, or at least less of a "German Whacking". The manpower pool started to shrink (first time in weeks), and the squads are back up close to Bob's "danger level" again. I see fewer hits of the blizzard from units out in the open, though of course they are still weak and puny.
 
It will be interesting to see the jump again in a few turns when February hits.  Parts of my line are relatively calm, parts are under pressure.  The 16th Army, for instance, is hurting solely from the blizzard at the moment, and should see a good bounce back if this continues.  I really want to see the changes in spring 42, this will be my first PBEM since the changes mid 1.02 betas.

[randallw]

This is what is supposed to happen; the blizzard is a massive bash in December, then decreases in hurt for the following months.  At least that's what I believe Joel has stated.

[PeeDeeAitch]

ORIGINAL: randallw

This is what is supposed to happen; the blizzard is a massive bash in December, then decreases in hurt for the following months.  At least that's what I believe Joel has stated.

Yep, this has always been the case. The problem is that defenses have been shattered in December, and nobody really ever saw the recovery. I had oodles of space to trade for time, and now I have the astonishing thing of CV 3 (!) divisions in some places. Amazing.

[PeeDeeAitch]

A quick update - by middle January the garrison units of Moscow can clearly see the fighting only 10 miles away.  Luckily, there has been two months of digging in.  Goering swears that if the defenders are cut off the Luftwaffe can supply them by air.
 
In other news, the German Army swears that its use of T-26s in frontline Panzer units makes sense as they are "really quite fine tanks."

[cpt flam]

you'd better take care of them
we don't use them and you won't have more (of these)[:'(]
great fun anyway even if it is real hard to recover

[color]

ORIGINAL: PeeDeeAitch

Goering swears that if the defenders are cut off the Luftwaffe can supply them by air.

Don't trust that fat pervert, his mouth is to big [:D]

[PeeDeeAitch]

In honor of Aditia:

Teh blizard goes worser, and I cant seem to do anythign. Stil it took til now for my firts unit to route. Of corse, its a Roumanin.

[PeeDeeAitch]

The only bright spot - the Crimea holds like a rock!

[Josh]

ORIGINAL: PeeDeeAitch

In honor of Aditia:

Teh blizard goes worser, and I cant seem to do anythign. Stil it took til now for my firts unit to route. Of corse, its a Roumanin.

Your spelling suckors. [;)]
(sorry to go OT here...)

[PeeDeeAitch]

Last turn of January, and Moscow is still in German hands. I wish I had sent the Blue division there, so I could have said "Thanks to the Spanish for fighting to keep Moscow German."

Seeing more recovery, my huge squads drop has reveresed - now up to 20k. Manpower returning to units at a good rate, from a high of 644k men in the pools to 300k in about 4 turns. The "return dump" that happens every January means that now units are seeing more CV. February means even units in the open will not dive any more, for the most part.

Due to my being at work, no screenshots now. Maybe tonight when I get home.

[PeeDeeAitch]

A note, despite my big talk about pulling back every turn, I haven't. This is not giving anything away to Cpt Flam, he sees this. The "Big Empty" has seen the most fall-back, perhaps 6-10 hexes, depending on the area. The cities line from Kursk to Kharkov are now fairly close to the front lines. I do not expect to lose them, perhaps Orel a bit north will go, but that has been on the front for a couple of weeks now (this was the area of my smallest gains pre-blizzard).

In the far south, the mountain units have kept the losses in front of Stalino to a minimum.

In all the above areas there are now panzers close to the front for "smash and run" missions. Already the Soviets have seen several spearheads blunted a bit by this.

[PeeDeeAitch]

Numbers - Turn 34 (Feb, 1942)

Ok, I said earlier today that the numbers were looking better. They are looking far better by February. In the past week 400k more men showed up in units because of my incentive, "Go to the front, get a new Volkswagen!*" plan. (*Free volkswagen will be available in 1956).

Squads are healthier, up from a 3rd blizzard week low of somewhere around -43 squads ready to fight.

here are the squads: