Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

I think he's split the KB, although there's a chance the rest of the KB can be lurking nearby. The reason I think it's split:

1) Minneapolis TF ran across IJ carriers, definately not a Mini KB, near Luganville on 12/26. These carriers could have made it to NoPac over the ensuing 16 days, but that's a long haul.

2) AM Oriole definately sighted just one TF of the ships noted.

John III, the rascal, is known for splitting the KB, but it's a risky move. More telling is that it lets me know where his carriers are located. Even more importantly, it suggests he's put a pretty high value on Amchitka and the Aleutians, which are not fertile grounds for a Japanese victory.

As for my ad in "opponents wanted," I don't recall specifically requesting an opponent who would go for auto victory. As I recall, I stated that Scenario Two offers an aggressive and experienced IJ player a shot at auto victory, and that I wanted a player of the caliber. If I had to place a bet on Steve's intentions at the moment, I'd have to place it on "not going for auto victory."

[Canoerebel]

1/12/42

SigInt: Part of 33rd Division is aboard a maru bound for Iba. If true, which I should be able to confirm in a week or less, this means Steve is reinforcing his attack on Luzon; that, in turn, indicates that he must be in a complete state of flux, unsure at the outset exactly what he wanted to do and what he would need where. I'm still mulling this over, but the Allies are begining to get the notion that a forward defense is a good idea.

NoPac: Shokaku and Zuikaku are still up here escorting troop transports that have arrived at Amchitka.

Easten DEI: Still quiet.

Western DEI: Palembang is 704 (3.03 forts); Oosthaven 254 (1.99 forts); and Singapore 809 (3.55 forts). The Singapore garrison recovered 18 on the disruption that resulted from the IJ shock attack yesterday. At that rate, the garrison will be fully recovered in a a week. The xAKL carrying most of the Tarakan CD guns will reach Oosthaven in two or three days. An Indian brigade is about four days away from Oosthaven. Another brigade starts loading at Colombo tomorrow. The two Aussie brigades will exit the Aden channel in three days (they have a long way to go). I have two other Indian brigades on Ceylon. I may strip them and send them to Sumatra, probably to garrison Benkolen on the southern coast (or one there and one perhaps at Padang).

[desicat]

I really enjoy following your AAR's, I log in at some point every night and take in the updates. At this point it looks to me that you have thrown Chez totally off balance and disrupted any strategic time tables for invasions he may have had.

You state that he is undermanned in the PI, Singapore, and the DEI. He has split the KB and seems to be reacting more to your thrusts than making you parry his.

I hope he has a surprise in store with the extra scenario 2 forces, but if not this may be over before mid 43.

[Canoerebel]

1/13/42

Today was in important day. After mulling over things, the Allies have committed fully to Fortress Palembang given what we're seeing from the enemy. Additional troops are boarding transports to make the journey to Sumatra. It will take a least two weeks for some of these units to arrive, so there will be time re-evaluate should conditions warrant, but the Allies intend to fight forward.

Eastern DEI: The Japanese still haven't moved forward from Ternate, Manado, and Morotai. I would think that Kendari, Makassar, and perhaps Timor will be next on the agenda, but this is unfolding slowly. The Allies still have transports and tankers moving between Soerabaja/Balikpan and Oz delivering supplies and fuel. In fact, Soerabaja is now low on supplies and nearly out of fuel.

Western DEI: Oosthaven AV is 260 (forts 2.02); Palembang 713 (3.04); Singapore 824 (3.55). The Tarakan CD guns will unload at Oosthaven tonight. Transports carrying an Indian brigade will arrive at Oosthaven in two nights. Still no sign of the Japanese moving on any target other than Singapore. The Allies still hold all the bases on Borneo (!).

The Plan: Two Indian brigades on Ceylon are bound for Sumatra to garrison Padang and Benkolen. Two UK brigades at Bombay are bound for Palembang. Two Aussie brigades that will exit the Aden channel in two days are bound for Oosthaven and Palembang. Two P-39 squadrons at Capetown are bound for Sumatra. It will take time to get these troops in place. If things go downhilll fast over the next two weeks, I can recall some of these troops. But if the Allies are still in good shape in two weeks, Sumatra is going to get a big influx of good units. If Steve's big move is east or south into the Pacific, I'll have a headstart and a green light to proceed. To "fill the vacuum" in India, I will devote Americal Division and any other unrestricted reinforcements that arrive in the USA in coming weeks. A Marine raider battalion and an Army RCT are already on the way to Capetown. I also want to reinforce Port Blair, which currently has an AV of 53. This plan will weaken the eastern Pacific, but Steve is more than welcome to move into that vacuum if it allows me to occupy Sumatra in strength. The American carriers will be heading south from San Diego over the next week, also bound for the southern DEI theater (well, I'm still pondering this move - I like the fact that Steve has Shokaku and Zuikaku in NoPac and wonder if keeping him focused there would pay dividends).

[John 3rd]

I thoroughly do not understand your opponent's strategy. You certainly unbalanced his opening moves but the lack of developments does not make sense to me...

[paullus99]

Kudos making the best of the situation as it stands today - a position in the DEI is a lot closer to his vitals than anything he's going to take in the Eastern Pacific (which will be at the end of a very long supply line). Make him fight in your aircover, against your reinforcements is going to be bloody.

[Canoerebel]

Me neither, John. Steve is an experienced player. He has alot of extra goodies to play with in Scenario Two. Something weird is going on. I am almost certain he's preparing for a huge move east or south into the Pacific, for even a green player would by now have taken the very lightly guarded oil bases on Borneo. If he goes for Hawaii, Oz, or New Zealand at this point, my counter would be to flood Sumatra (and possibly Burma) with troops rather than to fight a big battle where he is prepared to fight.

[GreyJoy]

But you do really believe he hasn't understood yet that Palembang and Sumatra are getting fulfilled with troops and planes? Doesn't he have Mavis on Naval Search in the area or Babs on Recon?

[Canoerebel]

Good question, GreyJoy. At the moment, I am not geting any indications that Steve is aware of what's going on Sumatra. He's not reconning and there's very little IJ presence anywhere close by, with the exception of his somewhat weak move on Singapore.

Something weird is going on. As noted previously, Steve is an experienced player. I think he's also getting some counsel from other experienced players. Chickenboy, for instance, withdrew from my AAR so that he could follow Steve's. So something huge and unorthodox is probably underway.

Still, though, I am puzzled. The failure to attend to Sumatra is a bit of a surprise, but the failure to take the big oil producing bases on Borneo seems to be a case of outright negligence. I'm probably going to pay for sentiments like that....

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

...the failure to take the big oil producing bases on Borneo...

Do you plan to beef up defenses of those places if they are still yours when Sumatra is finished building? Or do you foresee a counter-attack strategy using your (then) very strong base in the DEI?

[paullus99]

Very strange - especially if you're not getting much in the way of SigINT information at this time denoting preps for other targets. He can still apply overwhelming pressure, but more and more it seems not to be pointed at the Western Part of the map.

[Canoerebel]

witpqs, good question. If things continue this way, I'll end up wishing I hadn't stripped the garrisons from Borneo, Celebes, Java, etc. to bolster Sumatra's garrisons. There is a chance the Allies could end up backfilling, but not until I felt pretty sure Sumatra, with it's critical supply-producing capability, is safe. Of cousre, alot can change and very quickly (and that should be the case unless this game is really going awry), so I may be backing off my optimistic assessments in short order.

paullus99, I'm getting essentially zero "prepping for" SigInt. I think Imperial Guards prepping for Singaproe is the only divisional level info I've received to date. I've gotten some small units, but all of those reports were for obvious targets like Iba, Singapore, and Mersing. Zero intel that would clue me in to Steve's real axis of advance.

[Cribtop]

Perhaps he is planning to invade... Hollywood! Fortunately, one P-40 can stop that plan. [:D]

On a more serious note, I still find the apparent misallocation of resources to NOPAC by Steve interesting. Arguably, it is the only solid clue you have to date regarding his intentions. Could be maskirovka of course, but something must be up.

[Canoerebel]

I agree about NoPac. Committing Shokaku and Zuikaku there is pretty signifiant in showing what weight he attaches to the area. I like holding the Aleutians, but as far as I'm concerned that's a dead-end route for an IJ player to pursue. If he comes for the Aleutians all-out, I won't contest it, because I'll be hard at work elsewhere.

[paullus99]

Just a thought - if he read your AAR with Q-Ball, he's probably suspecting that you won't show your carriers unless you were serious about a given area (perhaps a bit of "training to fight the last war" syndrome) - so he's thinking you are the one that's serious about the Aleutians & he is moving to try to forestall you there (the failed invasion stinks - you really should have been able to push him off that rock - stupid weather).

[Canoerebel]

I went for a long walk this afternoon and puzzled and puzzled "'til my puzzler was sore" (as the Grinch would say). I didn't come up with much, but here are my thoughts.

1. Steve is a capable, experienced player who will not rattle easily. At least, I have to assume that he is. If he isn't, the game will spiral out of control for him and it won't be much of a contest. But if he is, he may be orchestrating some well-thought out master move that will leave me stunned.

2. I do think he wants to make a major play in China. Whether that means shipping in extra unrestricted divisions I don't know. But I don't think he's putting all his eggs in this basket. If he was, he'd be making a routine play for Luzon and the DEI, I believe. So, China is only part of it.

3. It is remotely possible that he's laid back in the DEI hoping that the Allies will pull all the troops out of Borneo, Java, etc. to reinforce Sumatra. He would do this only in hopes of making an easy conquest of the neutered bases, cutting off and isolating Sumatra, and then moving on India. But he's moving awfully slowly if that's his plan, and the Allied plan of "filling the vaccum" created by sending Indian units forward by substituting American units should thwart Steve. I hope. This plan makes the best sense from my perspective.

4. The only other plan that makes sense to me is an all-out grab for Hawaii or Oz. But if he were doing that, he'd also be making a routine grab for positions iin the DEI. So I don't think this is likely.

Therefore, until I find out otherwise, my overall strategy will be to reinforce Sumatra, perhaps leave 300 AV at Batavia, prepare to reinforce Port Blair and perhaps Burma (or at least continue the flow of supplies to Burma), and to fill in the vacuum with American troops. No more American troops go to the Pacific for the foreseeable future.

[Canoerebel]

1/15/42

SigInt: Report that 4th Division is on a maru bound for Iba; if true, this is to reinforce the IJ campaign against Clark Field. Previous reports were that 4th was on a maru bound for Truk. I had the same sequence with 33rd Division over the past week - once bound for Truk, now headed for Iba. What's with deciding five weeks into the war that you really do want Luzon sooner rather than later? He could have had these divisions on Luzon four weeks ago. These reports could be part of a big hoax, but they seem to dovetail with what I'm seeing, leading me to believe the enemy is in a state of confusion. Therefore, the Allies ratchted up the "Fortress Palembang" operation yet another notch. I bought another Indian brigade on Ceylon (the last one, so the cupboard will be very bare). I'm also preparing to send some base forces forward.

Western DEI: No further developments here with the exception of additional IJA regiments reinforcing the attack at Singapore. Singers AV is at 834 with forts 3.56. Palembag is now 731 (forts 3.07). Oosthaven is 305 (2.07). The Tarakan CD force unloaded at Oosthaven today. Most of an Indian brigade will land tonight. (Once Clark Field and Singapore fall, it would be natural for Steve to commit those troops to Palembang, so the longer they hold the better - I need about a month to double the eastern Sumatran defenses).

Eastern DEI: No forward enemy activity (very strange).

Luzon: I'm pulling my remaining units out of Manila to concentrate at Clark, where the Allies will have about 1550 AV behind four forts. If 33rd and 4th Div. are truly on the way, Steve should have enough to handle Clark relatively expeditiously.

China: The Chinese successfully pulled back from the front at Loyang and Chengchow. The new MLR will be in the forests east of Sian. A big IJ stack appeared near Kweilin. That's a critical post for the Allies. A breakthrough there is a disaster. I have 1400 AV behind three forts with another 800 AV on the way.

NoPac: Shokaku and Zuikaku Vals sank AM Oriole, which had been on picket duty near Attu Island.

CenPac: Quiet. Sara and Lex are southwest of San Diego. Ent repairs will be completed in two days. Ent and York will join the other two, make for Tahiti to refuel, and then look for opportunities in the short term to intervene in SoPac (while Shokaku and Zuikaku aren't around).

Timing Is Everything: If the Allies can reinforce Sumatra substantially over the next month as planned, it will leave India pretty naked. American troops won't begin to arrive there until about 45 days from now, beginning with a trickle and gradually building as time goes on. For the next three weeks, I have the ability to recall to India most of the troops I'm sending to Sumatra, but after than the defense of India will be dependent upon American intervention. There will be a gap - from about February 1 through about April 1, in which India will be terribly weak.

[witpqs]

Some earlier discussions about IJ players confounding Allied Intel got me thinking. One scenario I came up with is this: A unit is on board ship, destination set to Truk. Home port is set to Iba. Waypoint is set near Iba. When the TF arrives at the waypoint, player clicks on 'return to Iba'.

If there is an Allied Intel hit on the unit-TF destination, it will be Truk until right before it gets to Iba.

[X(]

[Canoerebel]

Yes, there are several clever ways to confuse the Allies on SigInt. Very useful and very tough to untangle.

I don't think that's what's happening here, though. I can't imagine that Steve would bother to disguise his intention to send units to Luzon early in the game. Luzon is an obvious target and there's little the Allies can do in response early in the war. Better to just send the units strait to Luzon and fiddle with SigInt deception for other units bound for less obvious destinations (I think).

[Canoerebel]

In both WitP and AE, the games usually unfold similarly. The Japanese player uses his opening, "lightnening" attacks to seize forward bases including most of the DEI. During this opening flurry, which may las a couple of months, the IJ player vanquishes certain important Allied bases (Hong Kong, Singapore, and usually Luzon, though sometimes that is bottled up with a small holding force). This frees up the forces needed to then embark on the second wave of attacks - the "deep penetration" against India, Australia, the SoPac Islands, or Hawaii, that might give the Japanese player a chance at auto victory.

In this game, the opening Japanese move seemingly hasn't gotten on track. The Allies still hold most of the DEI, Japan is having a bit of trouble at Singapore, and Japan seemingly has made a belated decision to go all-out for Luzon.

I don't yet know whether this unorthodox and unexpected opening is part of a well-thought out plan or evidence that the enemy camp is in complete disarray. Since my opponent is an experienced player, I have to err on the side of not underestimating him. But I am baffled.

I'm going to post a series of maps that will illustrate the situation as of January 15, 1942, beginning with the Western DEI region: