for history buffs&grognards: WHY is airpower insufficient to win a war?

[Mad Russian]

Not to win.

You need Ultra to shorten the war.

If you count espionage as a whole then I might agree with you. The Red Orchestra may have been more influential in winning the war than Ultra.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Orches ... pionage%29

Good Hunting.

MR

[Richie61]

ORIGINAL: Mad Russian

Not to win.

You need Ultra to shorten the war.

Wonder what the Battle of Kursk would have played out if the Soviets didn't know the place or time of the battle.
D-Day too. Part of the overall surprise of the Battle of the Bulge was that the German's didn't openly talk about the plans between them selfs and thus the Allies didn't see it coming.

War power did play into the North African theater. Rommel did lose lots of equipment to air attacks and also couldn't easily move his forces around during the day time. Then the allied attacks on his supply lines and materials being shipped did factor into his loses. Who knows what the outcome would have been if Rommel had the same amount of equipment and supplies as the Allies.

RE61

[Pillar]

Who knows what the outcome would have been if Rommel had the same amount of equipment and supplies as the Allies.

If you've done any work on that I'd love to hear it. We can assume that North Africa would have been won and Egypt would have fallen. I don't know about the Med/Malta. We could probably quantify it all to some degree. Italians would probably also be more useful/have higher morale.

[Mobius]

ORIGINAL: Richie61
War power did play into the North African theater. Rommel did lose lots of equipment to air attacks and also couldn't easily move his forces around during the day time. Then the allied attacks on his supply lines and materials being shipped did factor into his loses. Who knows what the outcome would have been if Rommel had the same amount of equipment and supplies as the Allies.

The reason I mentioned Ultra was that Doolittle knew about it yet continued to fly missions over southern Italy. Patton and others were very nervous about the possiblity of him being shot down and falling into enemy hands.

[Mad Russian]

ORIGINAL: Richie61

ORIGINAL: Mad Russian

Not to win.

You need Ultra to shorten the war.

Wonder what the Battle of Kursk would have played out if the Soviets didn't know the place or time of the battle.

That wasn't Ultra. That was the Red Orchestra.

D-Day too. Part of the overall surprise of the Battle of the Bulge was that the German's didn't openly talk about the plans between them selfs and thus the Allies didn't see it coming.

D-Day wasn't determined by anything the Germans did. It was determined on the ability of the Allies to build up enough troops to stay in France. The deception of keeping Patton out of the battle for the first part of the operation had more to do with the success of D-Day than Ultra.

The German attack at Mortain was an Ultra victory.

War power did play into the North African theater. Rommel did lose lots of equipment to air attacks and also couldn't easily move his forces around during the day time. Then the allied attacks on his supply lines and materials being shipped did factor into his loses. Who knows what the outcome would have been if Rommel had the same amount of equipment and supplies as the Allies.

Not sure what role Ultra played in war against Rommel. I would think it was Malta's torpedo planes that sunk Rommel's ability to make war. Literally.

Good Hunting.

MR

[Richie61]

Not sure what role Ultra played in war against Rommel. I would think it was Malta's torpedo planes that sunk Rommel's ability to make war. Literally.
Good Hunting.

MR

Well the British did first use the Ultra code breaking around 1940 or so.

As for North Africa and the region.

1) Ultra intelligence considerably aided the British army's victory over the much larger Italian army in Libya in December 1940-February 1941.

2) Ultra intelligence greatly aided the Royal Navy's victory over the Italian navy in the Battle of Cape Matapan in March 1941.

3) Although the Allies lost the Battle of Crete in May 1941, the Ultra intelligence that a parachute landing was planned meant that heavy losses were inflicted on the Germans and that fewer British troops were captured.

4) In the Western Desert Campaign, Ultra intelligence helped Wavell and Auchinleck to prevent Rommel's forces from reaching Cairo in the autumn of 1941

5) Ultra contributed to Montgomery's victory at the Battle of Alam el Halfa by providing warning of Rommel's planned attack.

6) Ultra also contributed to the success of Montgomery's offensive in the Second Battle of El Alamein, by providing him (before the battle) with a complete picture of Axis forces, and (during the battle) with Rommel's own action reports to Germany.

7) Ultra provided evidence that the Allied landings in French North Africa (Operation Torch) were not anticipated.

8) It was Ultra which denied all seaborne supplies to Rommel's retreating army and forced him to withdraw right into Tunisia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra

Ultra worked well to know your enemy

As Sun Tzu said:
So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you can win a hundred battles without a single loss.
If you only know yourself, but not your opponent, you may win or may lose.
If you know neither yourself nor your enemy, you will always endanger yourself.

[Richie61]

A few more stats of Axis shipping loses in the Mediterranean.

Human casualties amounted to 17,240 personnel at sea.
In supplies, the Axis lost 315,090 short tons (285,840 t).
The Allied Navies sank 773 Axis ships, totalling 1,342,789 long tons (1,364,337 t).
Mines sank another 179 ships of 214,109 long tons (217,545 t) in total.

The Navies and Air Forces shared in the destruction of 25 ships for 106,050 long tons (107,750 t), and Air Forces sank 1,326 ships, for a total of 1,466,208 long tons (1,489,736 t).
Mines and Naval craft shared a further ship destroyed between them, accounting for 1,778 long tons (1,807 t).

In all, 2,304 Axis ships were sunk, with a combined displacement of 3,130,969 long tons (3,181,211 t).

What could Rommel have done with these supplies? Would he have need to stop or would he have driven the British back to who knows where?

Woulda, coulda....should.... and If's and but's.....

[Mad Russian]

WOW...and all of that sent just to Rommel eh?

ROFL!

Check the Allied shipping losses and the Axis did on their own without Ultra and spy rings. You'll see that you can sink ships the old fashioned way too.


Good Hunting.

MR

[Richie61]

ORIGINAL: Mad Russian

WOW...and all of that sent just to Rommel eh?

ROFL!

Check the Allied shipping losses and the Axis did on their own without Ultra and spy rings. You'll see that you can sink ships the old fashioned way too.


Good Hunting.

MR

Das Boot

[Mad Russian]

ULTRA AND THE CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE U-BOATS IN WORLD WAR II

The British had by necessity been deeply involved with the U-boat problem for many months. They were using every conceivable means available in order to counter this deadly menace. One of these was Special Intelligence, or as it has become known, Ultra.

Cracking the German Naval ciphers was a far more difficult task than that of breaking the German Air Force or Army codes. The British had been making use of radio intercept information since early 1940 when "The Bomb"
was put into operation at Bletchley Park. This first useful result was related to the Luftwaffe. [3] The Naval Enigma Code, however, had resisted all attempts at decyphering and the British realized that a capture of the German cypher machine was necessary to any useful decryption program.

The effort to capture a German Enigma machine intact met with success in May of 1941 when, on the eighth of that month, U-110 attacked a convoy south of Greenland. The U-boat was heavily counter-attacked by escorts. The submarine surfaced after sustaining heavy damage rather than being sent to the bottom with the crew still aboard.

A boarding party was sent aboard the U-110 after the prisoners had been removed and put below so that they could not see what was happening. Perhaps fortunately, the U-boat sank before it could be towed to Ireland. This, plus the fact that the former U-110 crew had no knowledge that the submarine was ever boarded, made the secret of the capture secure throughout the war as late as 1958.

Now with an Enigma machine and accompanying material in hand, the British, for the first time in the war, were gaining an upper hand in the intelligence battle. A quantitative jump in knowledge of the German U-boat fleet, its disposition, state of readiness and tactics were available. The British were able to read the German Naval code "Hydra" almost currently. From June until December, Bletchley Park was able to read Naval traffic within approximately 48 hours.


http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/ETO/Ult ... index.html

Good Hunting.

MR

[Richie61]

Thanks! This is some sweet reading [:D]

[morganbj]

ORIGINAL: CheerfullyInsane

On a side-note, I love the pictures from Normandy showing German tanks sporting all kinds of improvised camouflage sticking out at absurd angles, while they're moving happily along a road........
Exactly who are they fooling here?

Spoken like someone with little or no military experience who wants to besmirch soldiers with several years of combat experience and who may have had good reason to camoflauge their equipment that that manner.

ANY reduction in the probability that you will be noticed increases the probability that you will see another day. While it looks silly when the picture is taken by a camerman 30 meters away, it is much less obvious to a plane flying at 200 mph and several miles away whi has to detect the vehicle amoung other vergitation. Does it guarentee non-detection? No, but it may reduce the chance some. It can also be utterly confusing to the antitank gun who has to precisely aim at a vehicle that is near other bushes, hedges, trees, etc. A 2 second delay while the AT gunner makes sure he's on the correct target can mean the difference between a hit, or a miss. What if I told you to climb in a tank and drive down a road. If you camoflauge your vehicle you've got a 80% chance of making it. If not, you have a 60% chance. Are you going to say that it looks stupid and not do it?

Now, if it is camoflauge that is out of place, then yes, it might be silly, but then again, it might not be. I've seen forest green camoflauge nets used in the desert to conceal sand colored vehicles. The logic was that while the net would aid in aircraft detection of the vehicle it might otherwise not see, it might cause a person with a hand-held AT weapon to misjudge where the target was behind the net, so as to cause a miss or perhaps a "bad" hit in a non-critical location. If your side had complete air superiority, and the other side had great potential to sneak in AT killer teams on the ground, especially at night, what would you do? I'd put up the net.

[jinchoung]

whoa whoa...

he was just kidding!

jin

[Mad Russian]

bjmorgan, I took his comment to be that they look out of place on the road but were intended for just the purpose you stated, to keep them alive in the field. I think he's got it right, as do you.

Good Hunting.

MR